2025 NFL Season Preview: Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson


Atlanta Falcons (Last Year: 8-9)



2025 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
DE Morgan Fox, OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Divine Deable, S Jordan Fuller, KR Jamal Agnew.
Early Draft Picks:
DE Jalon Walker, DE James Pearce, S Xavier Watts, CB Billy Bowman. Falcons Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
WR Rondale Moore, C Drew Dalman, DE Matthew Judon, DT Grady Jarrett, DT Eddie Goldman, OLB Lorenzo Carter, LB Nate Landman, CB Dee Alford, S Justin Simmons, S Richie Grant.

2025 Atlanta Falcons Offense:
The Falcons shocked everyone in the 2024 NFL Draft. They were expected to take Laiatu Latu with the No. 8 overall selection. Instead, they spent it on Michael Penix Jr. after giving Kirk Cousins $100 million two months earlier. The decision seemed asinine until Cousins had a woeful stretch in the middle of the season in which he couldn’t stop throwing interceptions. Atlanta eventually gave up on him, switching to Penix in the final few games. Penix responded well, performing much better than post-October Cousins, albeit in a small sample size.

Penix will be expected to take the next step with some talented weapons. Drake London caught 100 passes for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns last year. He’ll reprise his role as the team’s No. 1 receiver, while the second option, Darnell Mooney, was eight yards shy of 1,000 receiving yards on 64 receptions. Kyle Pitts, meanwhile, will be returning as the starting tight end. Pitts had some big games in 2024, but was mostly a disappointment. Many keep expecting Pitts to have a breakout season, but it just never happens.

The best player at Penix’s disposal will be Bijan Robinson. The talented back logged 1,456 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 61 receptions for 431 receiving yards. He scored 15 times in the process. Robinson, entering his third year, will have a chance to advance himself into the very upper tier of running backs and perhaps lead the league in rushing. If, however, Robinson gets hurt and misses time, the Falcons will be able to turn to a very capable backup in Tyler Allgeier.

Everyone discussed thus far in Atlanta’s offense is a returning player. Ten of the 11 starters were on the team last year. The only change is at center, as Drew Dalman departed via free agency. Dalman, a very capable blocker, will be replaced by Ryan Neuzil, who struggled in eight starts last season. It’s unclear why the Falcons didn’t put forth more energy in either retaining or replacing Dalman. Either way, Neuzil will be flanked by Chris Lindstrom and Matthew Bergeron. While Bergeron is a good blocker, Lindstrom is one of the top guards in the NFL, so despite the downgrade from Dalman to Neuzil, the Falcons should be able to block well in the interior.

The Falcons don’t have any issues on the edge, save, perhaps, for Jake Matthews’ age. Matthews is now 33, but he performed on a high level last year. His bookend, Kaleb McGary, is one of the better right tackles in the NFL.



2025 Atlanta Falcons Defense:
There will be just one new starter in Atlanta’s offense. That number is substantially higher on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta spent most of its energy this offseason upgrading the stop unit that has finished better than 20th in yards allowed only once since 2017.

Atlanta’s greatest defensive issue last year was failing to generate a consistent pass rush. The Falcons did a better job of getting pressure on the quarterback late in the year, but there was no certainty that this would happen again. The front office compensated by signing Leonard Floyd in free agency. Floyd, 33 in September, isn’t the same player he once was, but is still capable of rattling opposing quarterbacks.

The Falcons decided that Floyd wasn’t enough to enhance the pass rush, so they spent two first-round picks on edge rushers. Jalon Walker, chosen at No. 15, was expected to be drafted in the top 10, so he provided great value when he was on the board. James Pearce, taken 26th, has both amazing upside and tape coming out of Tennessee. Odds are at least one produces well as a rookie. If both do, Atlanta’s defense will be much better than it was in 2024.

There will also be two new starters on the defensive line, but only one will be a new signing. This is because Grady Jarrett departed via free agency. This would have been a devastating loss a couple of years ago when Jarrett performed on a Pro Bowl level, but he struggled last year. Still, he was better than replacement Duke Orhorhoro, but Orhorhoro was a second-round rookie who should be better with experience. He’ll play alongside David Onyemata and newly acquired Morgan Fox. Onyemata was a bit of a disappointment last year, but we’ve seen him thrive in recent seasons, so he could rebound. Fox was a below-average lineman for the Chargers in 2024.

There will also be a new starter in the secondary, as either free agent signing Jordan Fuller or third-round rookie Xavier Watts will join Jessie Bates at safety. Bates is one of the top safeties in the NFL, so the Falcons would love it if one of their new guys performed near the same level. Watts has a chance, as he was expected to be chosen earlier than the third frame.

Atlanta’s cornerbacks will return from a year ago. The team has a solid pair of outside corners, including A.J. Terrell, who is one of the better players at his position in the league. Mike Hughes isn’t as good, but he’s a quality starter. The one weakness here is at nickel, where Dee Alford struggled last year.

Rounding out the defense, the linebacker corps will have one change. Nate Landman is gone, but the Falcons may still have a pair of capable starters in Troy Andersen and Kaden Elliss. Andersen isn’t as good as Landman, but he was fine in limited action last year. Elliss is definitely the better of the two. He’s at his best when rushing the passer.



2025 Atlanta Falcons Schedule and Intangibles:
Matt Ryan was 58-39 at home. However, the Falcons have been a poor 48-52 as a host over the past 11 years, so the magic has vanished.

Master of the onside kick, Younghoe Koo was unusually inaccurate last year. He was just 25-of-34, though he did hit 6-of-9 from 50-plus.

Bradley Pinion was awful last year. He had one of the worst net-punting averages in the NFL, and he didn’t do a good job of pinning the opposition inside the 20.

Atlanta has a balanced schedule. It has tough battles against the Vikings, Redskins, Bills, 49ers, and Rams. However, it also gets to take on the Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Jets, Seahawks, and Cardinals.



2025 Atlanta Falcons Rookies:
Go here for the Falcons Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.



2025 Atlanta Falcons Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
Quarterbacks
Offensive Line
Secondary
Running Backs
Defensive Line
Special Teams
Receivers
Linebackers
Coaching


2025 Atlanta Falcons Analysis: The Falcons will have a good chance to win the division this year. They were well in control of the NFC South in 2024 when they imploded because of Kirk Cousins’ horrid play. Michael Penix will be better than Cousins, while the defense should be improved because of the talented pass rushers it acquired this offseason.

Projection: 9-8 (TBA in NFC South)

2024 Projection: 9-8. 2024 Actual Result: 8-9.
2023 Projection: 8-9. 2023 Actual Result: 7-10.
2022 Projection: 2-15. 2022 Actual Result: 7-10.
2021 Projection: 4-13. 2021 Actual Result: 7-10.
2020 Projection: 6-10. 2020 Actual Result: 4-12.
2019 Projection: 10-6. 2019 Actual Result: 7-9.
2018 Projection: 9-7. 2018 Actual Result: 7-9.
2017 Projection: 13-3. 2017 Actual Result: 10-6.
2016 Projection: 5-11. 2016 Actual Result: 11-5.

NFL Draft Team Grade: A Grade

Goals Entering the 2025 NFL Draft: The Falcons seem poised for a playoff run this year, assuming that Michael Penix Jr. can build on his strong finish in 2024. However, the Falcons need to address some areas. Multiple upgrades are needed on the defensive line to ensure that the pass rush we saw at the end of the year wasn’t a fluke. Cornerback must be addressed as well.

2025 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Atlanta was widely criticized for trading away next year’s first-round pick, but after thinking about it, the move makes sense. The Falcons simply used their first-round pick in 2026 now, rather than waiting 12 months. If they’re going to be as good as everyone they believe can be, then they’ll be picking in the 20s during the 2026 NFL Draft (check out the 2026 NFL Mock Draft here.) If so, then they likely won’t be able to nab someone as good as James Pearce a year from now, given that the Falcons were comfortable drafting Pearce at No. 15.

Instead of obsessing over the misappropriation of next year’s first-round pick, those critical of the Falcons should consider what the combination of Pearce and Jalon Walker can accomplish. They could both thrive as rookies, allowing Atlanta to make great strides, defensively. Third-round steal Xavier Watts should also be able to help.

The Falcons had just five picks, but they nailed all of them. They earned four “A” grades and a “B.” And it’s rather clear that their first three picks figure to have a massive impact on how deep the Falcons venture into the playoffs this upcoming winter.

 

NFL Draft Individual Grades:


15. Jalon Walker, DE/OLB, Georgia – A+ Grade

The Falcons were deciding between Mykel Williams, James Pearce, and Shemar Stewart all day. Never in a million years did they imagine that Jalon Walker was available. This is incredible value and fills a need. Like the Tyler Warren pick, this is an easy A+.

 


26. James Pearce, DE, Tennessee – A Grade

The Falcons were debating Mykel Williams, Shemart Stewart, and James Pearce at No. 15 before Jalon Walker fell to them. They must have been absolutely shocked that he was there at No. 26. I’m not crazy about trading away first-round picks, but I think this makes sense. Pearce was one of the top players available whom the Falcons were considering in the opening half of this first round, and Atlanta is in win-now mode, given how bad the NFC South is.


96. Xavier Watts, S, Notre Dame – A+ Grade

How did Xavier Watts fall to the third round? I thought he’d go in the middle of the second frame. This is a superb pick, as Watts is a dynamic play maker. This is a steal for the Falcons.

 


118. Billy Bowman, S, Oklahoma – B Grade

This range and need fit makes sense for the Falcons. Billy Bowman is a play-maker who will create some turnovers, but he allows plenty of big plays as well. As a gambler, I can appreciate this sort of play.


218. Jack Nelson, OT/G, Wisconsin – A Grade

Protecting Michael Penix Jr. is crucial as the Falcons try to become a long shot to win the Super Bowl. Jack Nelson should provide good depth because he can play tackle and guard. I thought he should have gone earlier.

 

Follow me @walterfootball for updates.



 


 
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