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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6





    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13






    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19





    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14



    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17



    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    CBrown 11-11-2012 04:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 33)
    7     7

    Guru66: Don't quit your day job, bro
    theguru66 11-11-2012 04:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.223 (total posts: 1)
    6     5

    You guys see some of these scores today?

    Wow.
    GStar 11-11-2012 04:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    12     5

    @Detroit Lions

    fsck youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!!!!
    Dollahz518 11-11-2012 04:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.70 (total posts: 2)
    3     5

    4 O clock pics lets get em workin giants got me down right now need a strong 4 o clock come back
    GStar 11-11-2012 03:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    3     41

    @Kenny

    Isn't putting the # of units equivalent to a "confidence meter"? Obviously if I'm on a pick for 10 units, I REALLY like it..
    GStar 11-11-2012 03:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.94 (total posts: 32)
    4     5

    Lions are really fscking my sh!t up right now. Stafford better fscking get it together.
    Kenny 11-11-2012 03:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.64 (total posts: 1)
    14     15

    Why do people put their units down? Its not like anyone is keeping track of their money lol... Why not just do a confidence meter 1 to 10 confidence
    I'm Ram Man and I suck 11-11-2012 03:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.28 (total posts: 1)
    3     6

    I completely ignored the Giants being overvalued at 3 1/2-4 pts on the road vs a decent team coming off a bye. They shouldnt be favored by that much on the road vs. any good team and I bet on an 8-1 ATS road trend instead. The reason why the Bengals were the right play in this game is the same reason why Philly will win big today...the Cowboys are a popularly-bet team who shouldnt be favored.

    Philly and Under. Eagles' last 8 division games have gone under the total. Book it.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 02:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    7     5

    @PureLock

    Yes, but WHY do you like those picks?

    PureLock 11-11-2012 01:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    3     22

    PLAY OF THE DAY:

    TOP PLAY: OAKLAND(+7.5) FOR 20 UNITS

    TOP PLAY: SD/TB OVER(47) FOR 20 UNITS

    PARLEY OF THE DAY: OAK + OVER SD/TB FOR 20 UNITS

    I'M GOING TO TAKE IT ALL BACK.

    GLTA
    Tanman 11-11-2012 01:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.216 (total posts: 1)
    2     5

    @andy - I totally agree. The only faded the darling teams that are typically over bet. Pats, Giants, Broncos. The spreads on those 3 didn't make sense to me either. I think vegas is depending on those 3 this wk.
    GURUBALL 11-11-2012 01:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.33 (total posts: 5)
    208     7

    PLAY OF THE DAY

    (CINCI +4) 10 units
    (BUCS -3) 10 units
    (BILLS +13.5) 5 units
    (TITANS +6.5) 1 unit

    UP 20 units lets keep chuggin'!


    GLTA!

    omie_g 11-11-2012 01:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.94 (total posts: 24)
    8     4

    My Week 10 Tossing Horseshoes

    Bengals +4.5
    Lions -2.5
    Buccaneers -3
    Titans +6
    Bears -1

    Went 5-0 last week. Let's strike it rich again! Here are my explanation of my picks.
    http://tossinghorseshoes.blogspot.ca/2012/11/week-10-tossing-horseshoes.html
    Ivar 11-11-2012 01:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.69 (total posts: 27)
    6     5

    Guru: I think we're on the same wavelength. Like all 5 of those picks except Tennessee/Miami.
    theguru66 11-11-2012 01:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    21     4

    For all the non-vampires just a quick repost before the 1 o'clocks!! Good Luck everyone!!

    Sorry guys, once again I had a busy Saturday and couldn't post a whole punch of plays for you (NCAA and NBA, I loved Denver tonight, should have posted that one for you guys, my bad). Then I got home and fell asleep. It's late and I want to get a fresh start in the morning so let's get right to it. You know the drill, train at 31-25-3 this year and in the last four weeks when I've had a good Saturday I usually follow it with a good Sunday. Last week I didn't have a good Saturday and same thing happened on Sunday. Well Saturday this week I had a good day so I am looking forward to tomorrow. Here we go....

    1pm, Tamapa Bay is coming off two ROAD victories in a row, I don't have time but I wonder when the last time the Bucs won back to back road games. That has to have them beaming with confidence and I like them in this spot against the Chargers. The Chargers aren't a good road team and they hate going to the east coast. They lost their last road game to the BROWNS, yes the do-do Browns! Oh and they only scored 2 field goals while they did it. I also like the Vincent Jackson story line. Here is what I got on this game, Chargers coming east, on the road, Jackson, home field, chance to go 5-4 and maybe make some noise, and great line value. Tampa should win this game if they want to prove to themselves that they are for real and the Chargers, well, they lost to the Browns. Bucs playing steady right now, run and pass, they win 24-16.

    1pm, I'm pretty sure that Vegas is nervous about putting a big number on the Dolphins. This team is playing very well and should be more of a favorite then 6 hosting the Titans. But their still the Dolphins and Vegas doesn't want to scare anyone away. Miami's defense is very good and Tennessee's is not. Miami's offense is not great but the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping Reggie Bush. I can't believe I just wrote that but he's been on fire lately. This game will start out slow but eventually the Dolphins will pull away and after at least 3 more turnover by the Titans they win this game by double digits. Something like 30-14. Lay the 6.

    1pm, I want you guys to go back two weeks and remember what Peyton Manning did to the New Orleans Saints. He picked them apart like he was in his back yard and now they have to face Matty Ice and his assassin ninja receivers. Atlanta gets no credit for being 8-0 huh? They're in a dome so that isn't going to be a factor and if they score a few TD's early the crowd will be out of it. Falcons are going to end the Saints season and as much as it's a feel good story that the Saints win this game as it really is their "super bowl" game, they just aren't good enough on defense to stop Atlanta. They can't stop the run either. This game is going to be ugly. 38-17 dirty birds.

    4:05, The Jets in Seattle? Really? I'm not going to waste anyone's time on this one. Come on, how are the Jets going to score points in this game. Seattle has one of the best home field's in football and the Jets couldn't score on a high school cheerleader. I am predicting that the Jets score a grand total of 3 points but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they score none. I'm serious. In fact I'm going to go 24-3. Lay the 6.

    4:25, The big bad NFC match-up between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Not what it was cracked up to be huh? The Cowboys stink, they're fractured and broken. The Eagles look like clowns out there. Vick is just going through the motions. Reid is somehow not being asked why Shady McCoy isn't touching the ball almost every down. I feel like he's purposely trying to make Vick look like this because he knows that he needs another QB to win. I bet he could do things to protect Vick but just doesn't care, he needs Vick to fail. Anyway, there is going to be a lot of turnovers and sacks and fumbles and....POINTS! I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit 30 but I have it at 30-27. Either way, it soars over.

    Sunday's NFL Picks:

    Tampa Bay -3
    Miami -6
    Atlanta -2 1/2
    Seattle -6
    Dallas/Phily over 44 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone today, enjoy the games and please remember to mind the gap.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 29


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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