NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

WALT HATER KILLA, I guess you haven't been paying attention to Walt's picks the last 3 weeks. That's OK...I can tell by your witty comments that you are mentally handicapped and haven't been taking your medication. Either that or you are an 8 year old kid with mommy issues.

Have a nice day at grade school tomorrow and don't give the teacher a hard time.

About (not) betting Green Bay because they're #1 in every power ranking... I wouldn't bet against Rodgers, period. At least not until defenses figure the Packers' offense out. I refuse to bet against Brady season this season, either.

That said, week in and week out, the other teams (excluding the ones the Packers or Patriots played in a given week) near the top are horrible against the spread.

New Orleans was #3 in ESPN's rankings last week, and St. Louis destroyed them. The Ravens were #3 the week before, and they lost straight up to the Jags. The week before that, New Orleans was #3 and Detroit was #4, and they BOTH lost straight up, as favorites. Keep going back. Non-Patriot or Packer teams in that 3-4 range do not beat the spread.

Why? Because they're overvalued.

Hot/cold as in both teams have come in on all types of streaks with varying records over the past 7 years, and regardless, there's still close game after close game.

Why would a 6-2 team, at home on Sunday Night, coming off a win over New England, only be favored by 3 against a team who has a (slightly) worse record, and whose wins have come against inferior teams?

On top of that, 70% of the money comes in on the Steelers and Vegas doesn't adjust the spread?

Maybe this game is fixed, maybe there's injuries we don't know about, who knows. But Vegas is baiting the public into taking Pittsburgh.

@ real g

Wow. Never seen such a contradictory post. First off all, the Steelers aren't hot/cold. They are just hot.

Second, how am I a drunken buffoon for thinking the Steelers can cover a 3 point spread but you openly admit that "the steelers will probably win this game"? I suppose the only reasonable outcome in your eyes is the Steelers winning by 1 or 2 points.

Third, who cares if the Steelers have a good record and are in the top 4 in the power rankings? The Packers have had a good record all year and have been #1 in the power rankings all year. Should I not have been betting on them all year because of that? Even though they are 5-2 against the spread. So, I'm not sure what your point is. You shouldn't bet on teams with good records who are high in the power rankings?? Lol.

Don't fade WAlt this week, he is going to have a good week, except he is dead wrong on the SF/WSH game. The Redskins cannot get anything going right now. Shanahan is overrated, only won with Elway.

RECAP: Matt is a drunken buffoon. There's been all kinds of circumstances leading up to recent Pittsburgh-Baltimore meetings... Steelers coming in hot/cold, Ravens coming in hot/cold, etc. Look at the scores since the Big Ben has been there. The vast majority of meetings between them are decided by small amounts. The Steelers will probably win this game, but the fact that they have such a good record (and that they're top 4 in nearly every power ranking) means the public overvalues them. The truth is that this game could just as easily go either way.

I love your picks Fu qer, just one of them I would like you to take a look at or at least discuss. Whats up with Oakland , why would ateam that was playing great football, like Oakland was, all of a sudden make a major trade that ended up bring a mediocre Qb, like Palmer and have the whole scenario upset something that was going so well. This is one of the most bizarre things i have seen in professsional sports. Unbelievable, things in Oakland are in turmoil, bigtime, I cant see laying any thing on them. Tell me what you think.

"RECAP: The Steelers just beat the Patriots. The Ravens, meanwhile, lost to the Jaguars and barely vanquished the Cardinals. Yet, this spread is just -3 with the public pounding the host. Don't you find that curious?

This traditionally is a close rivalry, so it'll probably be decided by a field goal. And I don't think enough is being made out of Pittsburgh's injuries at the linebacker position. Everyone assumes the Steelers will be OK because they slew the Patriots. I think Baltimore will find a way to take advantage of all the backup linebackers.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Ravens +3 (1 Unit)"
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I know this is only a 1-unit pick, but I can't help but question the logic here. You have openly admitted that the sportsbooks have been getting killed this year. So why does it matter that it is "curious" that they aren't adjusting a spread? Forget about that stuff. The sportsbooks are just as lost as you are right now.

Keep it simple stupid. Think of it this way. The Steelers are playing great football. They have won 4 straight including one against the mighty Patriots. The Ravens, on the other hand, are playing terrible football. They nearly lost two in a row to two of the NFL's worst teams.

Yes, the Pitt linebackers are banged up. But, they just kept a much better offense than Baltimore in check with their LBs banged up.

Also, you don't think the Steelers will be a little mad about the way the Ravens embarrased them in week one? I've seen you use that "edge" before. Just curious why it doesn't apply here.

In order to bet a team getting just 3, you have to believe that team can win outright. I don't believe Baltimore can win this game. Not the way they are playing. Not the way Pitt is playing. They won't let themselves get swept by Baltimore. It's happened once in the past 10 years (2006). Very rare.

You're overthinking things. Steelers by 7. 3 units.

Wow, I never thought i'd ever do this, but week after week of losing, I decided to fade walter this week.

GL me

Sir Walter,
You mentioned posting less units because of your recent struggles, and then also posting what your normal unit play would be. However, I do not see where this has been posted, please inform.
-Best Regards

WF: We're back for another installment of our interview series.

WALT HATER KILLA: Photoshoot fresh, looking like wealth. I'm about to call the paparazzi on myself.

Fade Walt: I like to gurgle on the rod of a fella.

WF: Entertaining as always, guys. Thanks again.

WF: We've gathered two commenters here to find out what they have to say.

WALT HATER KILLA: I'm so far ahead of my time, I'm about to start another life. Look behind you, I'm about to pass you twice.

Fade Walt: I love when a man's testicles are in my mouth.

WF: Thanks, guys!

walt hater killa is killin em !!

whoooooooooooo!

Fade Walt owes me a new keyboard. I just spilled costly champagne all over it from laughing so hard. Laying a single point with Dallas? Are you out of your mind on crack and gin?

Follow Fade Walt's picks if you want to be begging strangers for change in between sucking on ice to cool down your meth mouth. These Walt haters are nothing but punks, straight up.