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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

John Harbaugh has the record advantage over Andy Reid, especially in Week 1 of preseason tilts. Harbaugh has never lost, while Reid is just 5-8. I went against the Eagles last year in Week 1, and came away with $300, as Jacksonville covered as three-point dogs.

MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 8-4 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-30 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 5-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Eagles 13
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Eagles 13, Ravens 6




    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.
    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tony Sparano loves winning in the preseason. Mike Smith doesn't appear to care unless it's Week 3.

    MAJOR UPDATE: I'm going to scale back the Ravens pick and remove the Dolphins selection because of this article. This isn't a normal preseason, so I'd advise caution.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Mike Smith is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Tony Sparano is 9-3 in preseason games.
  • Tony Sparano is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Falcons 19
    Dolphins +2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 28, Falcons 23





    New York Jets (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.
    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Rex Ryan had a big matchup against the Giants last year in Week 1 of the preseason, yet he lost 31-16. Ryan is 0-2 in Week 1 preseason tilts, while Gary Kubiak is a solid 3-2.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Rex Ryan is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 10-10 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jets 17
    Texans -2.5 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Texans 20, Jets 16


    Leave a comment

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    EasyPicking 01-02-2012 12:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.55 (total posts: 29)
    10     14

    Push written all over this fg here td by cowboys u watch veges bs
    EasyPicking 01-02-2012 12:00 am xxx.xxx.xxx.158 (total posts: 1)
    12     10

    U jus better hope gmen do sumthing next poss bc ur money is going to Vegas
    waltersucks 01-01-2012 11:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    11     118

    yo look for me on tv at the winter classic Ill have a waltersucks sign
    putting 3u on FLYERS put your money on the FLYERS
    waltersucks 01-01-2012 11:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    10     52

    easypickings like i said earlier i bet so called locks if i post it its a winner
    EasyPicking 01-01-2012 11:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.80 (total posts: 1)
    10     22

    Ur calling it game over don't put ur money in ur pocket yet only up 11 ats. Vegas has more money on the giants this game will either push or giants win by 1
    waltersucks 01-01-2012 11:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    22     102

    YO Im going to the winter classic tomorrow
    Im putting 3u on the flyers
    BlairHattonPick.com 01-01-2012 11:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 1)
    10     38

    @waltersucks: Sorry you don't like the site but if you check the live lines tab you can see when the lines move! We will take your advice into account but most handicappers know that lines move all the time which is why there is a live lines ticker on the site. Good day Sir!
    waltersucks 01-01-2012 10:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    14     226

    21-0 gmen keep putting thumbs down on my post losers let me help yous losers you cant bet 20 games every week and win you need to just sit back and find the so called locks when i post a bet its a winner cause i find the so called lock
    waltersucks 01-01-2012 10:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    23     25

    blair your right sorry
    but a good site would keep its viewers informed and up to date
    Bigleftygolfer 01-01-2012 10:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.195 (total posts: 37)
    13     13

    @guru I pray you are correct I took +10 on the giants at -3 local action pushed to -120 (sucks) so I also put +5 on giants with the over in a sucker bet ( parley) since I am playing catch-up. The off for season as I never touch the post season other than boxes and pools.

    I wish I looked outside and saw the rain first before I took the over lol
    BlairHattonPicks.com 01-01-2012 10:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    11     53

    Haven't posted yet on BlairHattonPicks.com but were taking:

    Houston
    Georgia
    Nebraska
    Florida
    Oregon
    Ok State

    Good Luck, God Bless!
    Steve 01-01-2012 10:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    13     24

    Bowl Picks for 1/2/12 will be posted tonight on BlairHattonPicks.com!
    EasyPicking 01-01-2012 10:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.55 (total posts: 29)
    10     12

    Wats the thought on bowl games tomorrow guys?
    Waltersucks 01-01-2012 09:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.41 (total posts: 9)
    14     507

    Yo question i got the game at 1
    7-0 gmen keep put thumbs down on my post losers
    Guruball 01-01-2012 09:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx62.7 (total posts: 46)
    17     11

    *for the week...
    actually lost 19 units today. "so far"...hit a parlay but knew i shoulda stayed away with the Broncos game... Oh well, anotha day anotha dolla...

    LETS GET IT BACK TO THE POSITIVE SIDE!
    ELI NEEDS TO STEP IT UP....

    @mike
    Yea i do little parlays. Did a couple hundred on both.

    @question
    My line ended @ +1.5 HOU


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 17


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 16


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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