NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)

NFL Picks (2011): 48-39-5 (-$895)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 17, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games

St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Line: Packers by 14. Total: 47.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Packers -19.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Packers -19.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Week 5 Recap: The good news is that I went 9-4 overall and 8-4-1 with totals, though that latter figure is probably a fluke. The bad news is that I went 2-3 with the five three-unit picks I posted last week. I have a complaint and an apology about this. Let's go with the apology first, since that's least interesting.

Buccaneers +3 at 49ers: I was THIS close to getting this one right. OK, maybe not. I thought the 49ers would be in a bad spot as a home favorite coming off a close road win. What I didn't realize that Tampa Bay was in an even worse situation. I should have looked it up beforehand, but East Coast teams playing on the West Coast after hosting a Monday night game tend to perform really poorly. My bad for being stupid and/or lazy.

I also lost with the Titans +3 at Pittsburgh. I locked that one in too early. I got nervous about the pick once I heard all the talking heads were picking Tennessee straight up. I wish I could have that one back.

Broncos +4 vs. Chargers: I posted this in my Week 5 NFL Game Recaps page:

I'm so sick of these bogus non-covers. The Broncos finally replaced Tim Tebow to the delight of the Mile High fans, and he was able to lead two touchdown drives. Brandon Lloyd dropped a two-point conversion attempt, making the game 26-24 with a couple of minutes remaining. San Diego had the ball on Denver's 40-yard line as the clock was ticking down. However, a phantom personal-foul penalty on Denver moved the Chargers into field goal range. With 20 seconds remaining, Nick Novak, who might just be the best kicker of all time the way he's drilling field goals against me, converted a chip-shot attempt.

The personal-foul penalty was the major issue. It was completely bogus. The official didn't even mention who committed the infraction. There was no number announced, and the replay showed nothing. Even the CBS announcers were befuddled. The refs, who actually did this twice in this contest, made sure San Diego covered at all cost. There's no doubt in my mind about this.

It may sound like I have sand in my vag, but seriously, no ref should ever be able to go, "Personal foul on the defense. That's a 15-yard penalty. First down." Personal foul on whom!? Give us a f***ing number! Don't leave the announcers saying, "I'm not sure what that's all about." And it's not like the refs did it just that one time. They did it twice in this game! Unbelievable.

Look, I know it sounds like I'm whining, but my main goal is to help people win money via betting. That's why all the content on this site has been and always will be free. I've been successful in my goal in the past, but this year has been different. I've had ridiculously bad luck with some of my picks, which is why I'm really frustrated. I'm confident I'll be able to turn it around, however.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As I wrote in my Week 5 Game Recaps page, "The only way the Packers don't beat all of their opponents soundly (save for New England and New Orleans) is if they make mistakes." They made two bad ones at Atlanta (Ryan Grant's fumble, Jermichael Finley's dropped touchdown), yet they were still able to win by 11.

To put it bluntly, the Rams can't stop the Packers. The only way Green Bay doesn't light up the scoreboard is if it shoots itself in the foot with careless errors. Joe Flacco lit up St. Louis' secondary for 389 yards in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers is way too good and has way too many weapons, so he could easily eclipse that figure if he wanted to.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Can the Rams score enough points to keep up with the Packers? Yeeaaa... no.

The Rams have had a week off to prepare for the Packers, but I don't care if they had 10 years; their offensive line stinks, and Sam Bradford's receivers are even worse. St. Louis is allowing a league-high 4.8 sacks per game. Green Bay has Clay Matthews and Dom Capers to take advantage of that.

Perhaps St. Louis can run the ball with Steven Jackson and control the clock? Yeeaaa... no. Thanks to B.J. Raji and a stout front seven, the Packers rank ninth against the run, limiting the opposition to 3.7 YPC.

RECAP: Want a pretty sick trend? Winless teams (0-4 or worse) are a whopping 22-3 against the spread coming off a bye.

So, am I betting on the Rams? Yeeaaa... no. As I wrote in my NFL Power Rankings page, "Aaron Rodgers is 27-13 against the spread since 2009. If you bet against him, you might as well light your money on fire."

I'm not going to lay any units on the host because of that trend, but I'm siding with Green Bay. This line is just WAY too low (I thought it'd be -19.5 or -20). Think about it this way - the Packers finished -6 at Atlanta. Move it over six points, and they would have been -12 over the Falcons at home. This spread is 15. Are the Falcons just three points better than the post-bye Rams? Definitely not. It makes no sense.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
A very shady low spread has invited tons of action on the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (101,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Rams are 28-44 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-8 since 2009).
  • Rams are 19-29 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 27-13 ATS since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Packers -14.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Normal.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Packers 45, Rams 10
    Packers -14 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Packers 24, Rams 3

    Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
    Line: Steelers by 13. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Steelers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Steelers -10.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.

    Vegas Recap: Facebook friend Mike R. posted the following on my wall Sunday night:

    48-3... nice call on Tampa, I'll be eating cat food for the next 6 months, just lost my house.....thanks.....

    On a 3-unit play? I can't imagine what he would have lost with an 8-unit pick of the month. Perhaps a kidney, a lung, or his daughter's virginity?

    The oddsmakers didn't lose their house. There were six heavily bet teams last week, and it was an even split for Vegas. The books won with the Chiefs, Panthers and Seahawks, but lost with the Bengals, Chargers and Packers.

    I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I'm convinced that Ben Roethlisberger fakes these injuries. Pre-game reports last week indicated that Big Ben was hobbling around and could barely walk - and yet he went on to throw five touchdowns. What if he does this to fool the opposition and degenerate gamblers like me? Perhaps the same tactic worked at that infamous bar in Georgia.

    The Jaguars have major problems in their secondary. Starting corner Derek Cox is battling a groin injury that kept him out of Sunday's game. Key reserve Drew Coleman will be out with a concussion. That means Jacksonville has only undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland playing behind Rashean Mathis and William Middleton.

    With no pass rush to fear, Roethlisberger should be able to torch the Jaguars behind an improved offensive line. Meanwhile, Rashard Mendenhall figures to return to the lineup, though he won't have much success running the ball against Jacksonville's eighth-ranked rush defense (3.5 YPC).

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If it weren't for Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars would be getting blown out every week. Despite coming off a knee injury, Jones-Drew has been brilliant this year, rushing for five yards per carry - a career-high figure if you exclude his rookie campaign.

    Fortunately for Jones-Drew's fantasy owners, the Steelers haven't been able to stop the run this year. They rank 23rd in the NFL, surrendering 4.7 YPC.

    Pittsburgh will be able to sell out to stop Jones-Drew, however, because Blaine Gabbert is a mere rookie quarterback making his fourth career start. Gabbert has shown some promise at times, but he's currently struggling with pocket awareness. That's why Jones-Drew is key; if he can run well, Gabbert will be able to move the chains in short-yardage situations. If not, he'll have LaMarr Woodley breathing down his neck.

    RECAP: There's no way I'm going to bet the Jaguars because they could easily get whacked. But I think they are the right side.

    The Steelers are a bloated home favorite based off just one victory in which their opponent may have taken them lightly. I'm not convinced that Pittsburgh's issues have been fixed. I'd like to bet against them, but I have no faith in Jacksonville.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    The money is coming in on Pittsburgh.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (76,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Jaguars are 10-24 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Steelers are 28-15 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 14-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -13.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Normal.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Jaguars 15
    Jaguars +13 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Steelers 17, Jaguars 13

    Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 46.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Eagles -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Eagles -1.5.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.

    Some random NFL (Eagles) notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. As I tweeted (@walterfootball) Saturday afternoon, "RIP Al Davis. I've made fun of him a lot over the years, but the impact he's had on the NFL has been immeasurable."

    Of course, there were a flurry of Al Davis jokes made on Twitter and Facebook. In fact, someone tweeted back to me, "@walterfootball does this mean the end of the virgin sacrifies or will his ghost continue the ritual? #RIP"

    Here were some of the more entertaining jokes. Keep in mind that these are not mine; I'm just simply re-posting them for those who might find them amusing. If you feel uncomfortable about reading Al Davis jokes, skip ahead to my point about Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

    R.I.P Al Davis - Raiders will forever be a slower team...

    The Raiders confirmed Al Davis is dead. Cant see why anyone is surprised considering he died hundreds of years ago. A few virgin sacrifices and he will be scouting 40 yard times again in no time.

    Just read Al Davis died. Thought he's been dead for years.

    He was found dead with a wooden stake thru his heart.

    Al Davis has died. He was 173. R.I.P. Al

    He's up in heaven timing angels for their 40 times as we speak

    @walterfootball You going to offer condolences for the family of Un-undead Al?

    Al Davis is now longer a Great Owna, he has given it up to go live with Glandor and Boris. RIP

    This is a sad day indeed. When I heard the news, the first thing that came to mind is that I will no longer be able to enjoy your jokes about sacrificial virgins, cycloptic minions and of course, Glandor.

    Undead Al is dead!!!! Sad day for

    Indeed. My first thought when I heard the news was, "Wow, that sucks." My second thought? "Crap, I can't make fun of 'great playas' and 40 times for a while."

    2. A word on the NFL and Breast Cancer Awareness Month. Actually, more than a word...

    I was at my parents' house for dinner on Thursday, and the NFL Network was replaying some game. My mom walked into the room, saw that the players were wearing pink socks, and asked me about it.

    Mom: Why are they wearing pink socks?

    Me: They're supporting Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

    Mom: I don't get it. Why do they need to wear pink socks? It looks so stupid. Can't they just wear a pink ribbon?

    I don't really have a problem with the pink uniforms. I just wonder why it's ONLY breast cancer. Why doesn't the NFL support eliminating other cancers? My uncle has lung cancer. Can't they do something for lung cancer? Like, why only concentrate on breast cancer? Can't we get rid of them all? I just don't get it.

    3. E-mailer Chris G. created this picture to submit it as a billboard in Pittsburgh. Looks like someone hacked into his e-mail because the Steelers added Max Starks:

    I think that's pretty clever, and I wouldn't mind seeing that on a billboard if I were a Steeler fan. Something I'd never want to see on a billboard is this hilarious and very disturbing picture posted by forum member Hippie Slayer (great name):

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: To quote John Lynch, "The Dream Team isn't do dreamy." The Eagles are a mess. I'll get to their offense later, but their defense can't stop the run. The linebackers and safeties are both terrible, and now their pass rush is weak as well because Pro Bowl defensive end Trent Cole is injured.

    Those thinking about betting the Redskins might be concerned about Rex Grossman and his tendency to turn the ball over. Well, that might not be prevalent in this contest because all Washington has to do is run the football with Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower and whomever else Mike Shanahan wants to frustrate fantasy owners with. The Eagles are 30th in run defense (5.5 YPC).

    Grossman won't be asked to do much. He'll have the luxury of operating in short-yardage situations with no Cole to harass him.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It's strange that the Eagles would shell out $80 million for a turnover machine. You can get turnover machines at Wal-Mart for $19.99 plus tax. Owner Jeff Lurie just doesn't understand finances, I guess. How much does he pay for a pack of gum? Ten grand?

    In all seriousness, it's not all QB Dog Killer's fault. Yes, he's holding on to the ball way too long and committing too many turnovers, but the other players are letting him down as well. The offensive line is still having issues (center Jason Kelce needs to be replaced immediately), while the receivers have suddenly developed a severe case of fumblitis. My dad would call it the Curse of the Killed Dogs.

    The Redskins have a pretty stout defense that gets good pressure on the quarterback. Its sole liability is against the rush (19th; 4.5 YPC), but Andy Reid doesn't run the ball enough anyway.

    RECAP: The lemming media loves to refer to several games every week as "must-wins" because they're not creative and have nothing else better to talk about. That's what they labeled Philadelphia's tilt against Buffalo last week. That was not a must-win because teams have come back from 1-4 to make the playoffs. But 1-5 with two divisional losses? This is truly a must-win.

    Having said that, I like the Redskins. First of all, as of this writing, the Eagles are favored by a point at Washington. This means the oddsmakers are saying Philadelphia is four points better than the Redskins (three points for homefield advantage), which is something I completely disagree with.

    Second, here's something interesting: Only eight times since 1992 has a team lost as a favorite four times in a row. The Eagles are the eighth, and the other seven teams were 2-5 straight up, 1-6 against the spread in the next game. The last team to do it was the 2003 Vikings, who failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites against the Lions (although they won, 24-14).

    And third, the Redskins are coming off a bye, and don't think that they've forgotten that 59-28 drilling they suffered on Monday Night Football last year. They're going to be highly motivated and prepared to put the final nail in the Dream Team's coffin.

    LOCKED IN: I'll be surprised if this line moves to -3.5. Get the Redskins in at +3.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This is a true, desperate, must-win game for the Eagles. The Redskins are not going to roll over though; they want revenge after that Monday night blowout last year.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    People refuse to believe that this Eagle team stinks.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (119,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Andy Reid is 11-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game (6-2 ATS after a loss) since 2002.
  • Eagles are 70-51 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 4-8 ATS going into a bye under Andy Reid.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -1.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Normal.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Eagles 27
    Redskins +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Eagles 20, Redskins 13

    San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0)
    Line: Lions by 5. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Lions -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Lions -5.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    Two weeks ago, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself "The Real John." I also made fun of him:

    I don't know what's more disturbing - the fact that TheRealJohn is "bedding" (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has "20K" to bet despite the fact that he doesn't know how to spell "betting" or "Walter" or "sure."

    As I posted last week, The Real John didn't take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:

    Some thoughts:

    1. Emmitt Smith also went to "top univercity." It doesn't mean he can read, write, or even conjugate the noun "debacle."

    2. "20000 isnt nothing 2 me." The Real John is apparently from a different country, since he referred to the NFL as "american futbol." I think it's reasonable to guess that The Real John could be from Zimbabwe. I looked it up, and 30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S. So, that would mean that The Real John lost 67 cents on one bet. No wonder "20000 isnt nothing 2 me."

    3. Good luck buying my "Websight" by winning 67-cent bets. And I can see very well on the Web, thank you.

    4. What's wrong with eating "ffoods" all the time? I love to eat "ffoods" all the time.

    5. I admit, I am "fater" than "Rex Gross Men." You know why? Because I live in America. If I lived in Zimbabwe, I wouldn't be "fater" than "Rex Gross Men" because I'd have to eat worms that crawl out of the ground. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

    The Real John wasn't done. He claims he had a successful Week 4 because I did poorly. Here's what he wrote:

    We've determined that 30K of The Real John's money is $1, so he won a grand total of $2 this week. No word yet if he plans on buying my "Websight" just yet.

    I wonder though... what sort of girls, "champain" and new car can he buy for 60K Zimbabwe dollars?

    Here's the car:

    Here's the "champain":

    And here's the girl:

    Whoa, sexy momma!

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: With all apologies to Mike McCarthy, Chan Gailey and Jim Schwartz, Jim Harbaugh is the favorite to be the NFL Coach of the Year. I had the Bills and Lions in playoff contention in my season previews, but I never imagined this 49er team would play like this. Harbaugh has maximized the talent on the team, including Alex Smith, who is seriously looking like Joe Montana right now. It's unbelievable.

    As we saw Monday night, the Lions have some issues on defense. They have a great pass rush, but their secondary isn't very good (particularly safety Amari Spievey). They can't stop the run either; they rank 24th in the NFL in that category, yielding 4.8 YPC.

    I fully expect Frank Gore to have his third-consecutive dominant outing. His run blocking has improved tremendously since Harbaugh benched right guard Chilo Rachal in favor of Adam Snyder. Gore will make things easier for Smith, who won't have to worry too much about Ndamukong Suh and the other pass-rushers in short-yardage situations.

    I see no reason for Smith to regress; like Charlie Weis with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Cassel, and Josh McDaniels with Kyle Orton, Harbaugh is a brilliant offensive mind who is doing a great job of coaching up a mediocre quarterback.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have all the talent to be one of the top five offenses in the league statistically, but for some reason, they just have trouble clicking in the first half. Maybe it's because they're young, or perhaps it's because the offensive line blows. Could be both.

    The 49ers will present major problems for Detroit's front. They can really get after the quarterback, especially now that Aldon Smith (3.5 sacks in the last 2 weeks) has emerged.

    With Detroit's running game in check - San Francisco's run defense is third (3.1 YPC) - Matthew Stafford will find things difficult Sunday. Sure, he'll hit Calvin Johnson for a couple of long strikes, but moving the chains throughout will be a struggle.

    RECAP: This figures to be a really tight game, so I like the points. Betting against home teams on long winning streaks (five games or more) has been fruitful over the past five seasons (18-36 ATS). I'll take the 49ers for a couple units.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    Slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 62% (112,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Lions -5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Lions 27, 49ers 24
    49ers +5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Over 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    49ers 25, Lions 19

    Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
    Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 50.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Falcons -5.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Falcons -4.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    I'm sad to report that I haven't heard back from Mengxin Wu about receiving my Blaster Master tank and Contra S-weapon yet (see last week's picks page for details). Time to move on to a new spammer.

    E-mailer Chris S. e-mailed something over to me that he got via Craig's List:

    I saw your resume on craigslist that you need work to get paid. I do have a job for you, which of course will fetch you $300 per week - and depending on how effective your work is, you are likely going to get a raise within the first one month, if your work is impressive.

    Your salary will be paid by western union or moneygram - or any other mode of payment you'd prefer. All you have to do is post adverts on craigslist. I will give you the post description, the cities to post and then you will forward all inquiries to my email address. You will be doing this like everyday, doing three cities per day. Your salary will be paid on the seventh day after you've started work. I really need someone who can be doing this effectively and bringing back good results.

    All you will need is a craigslist account, an internet and then all will be done. If you are ready to do this, do email me back at [email protected] to talk more.

    All I need is an Internet, eh? Well, I have an Internet, so I can respond for Chris S.

    Rather than replying as Mufasa Snow, let's go with another Game of Thrones character:

    Lord Wallet,

    My name is Samwell Tarly. I am interested in your job opportunity. It sounds like a nice change of pace from my current vocation, which is feeding and taking care of an old, blind man's ravens. That may sound easy, but it's not fun when they poop on your face and bite your hand. The ravens are also very scary. What happens if they escape the cage and peck my eyes out? I've soiled my breeches on countless occasions thinking about this.

    As for mode of payment, I prefer to be paid in honeycakes and lemoncakes. No money is necessary. Here at the Wall, there is no honeycake or lemoncake shoppe, so I would be at a loss with $300 in my pocket every week. Perhaps my black brothers wouldn't beat me and harass me if they knew I could share honeycakes and lemoncakes with them.

    I am sad to say that I do not have an internets. I do not even know what an internets is. Is this something found beyond the Wall? Because all the honeycakes and lemoncakes in all of Westeros can't make me go beyond the wall. There are wildlings, giants and even wights, and ohhh... I've just soiled my breaches again. Oh, and I am craven and a coward.

    Yours truly,

    Samwell Tarly

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton has been amazing. He has thrown for at least 370 yards thrice in five games, and the only game in which he didn't maintain a 7.2 YPA or greater was that monsoon contest against Jacksonville.

    Weather won't be a factor in the Georgia Dome, and neither will an Atlanta secondary that has surrendered at least 310 passing yards to all but one opponent (Josh Freeman). The Falcons get a boost with the return of John Abraham, but Newton's scrambling ability somewhat nullifies that.

    As a bonus, the Panthers have gotten the running game going now that Jeff Otah is back in the lineup. The Falcons play the run pretty well (6th; 3.4 YPC), but they'll have to stay honest now that DeAngelo Williams has proven that he can still break off long gains.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Pass protection has been a major issue for the Falcons. Left tackle (Sam Baker) and right guard (Garrett Reynolds) are both terrible. Center Todd McClure has been missed; Joe Hawley hasn't done a good job in relief.

    Fortunately for Atlanta, the Panthers don't provide much of a pass rush; they have just eight sacks on the year. Matt Ryan figures to have more time than usual in the pocket to find his receivers downfield against a porous Carolina secondary. The problem is that Julio Jones (hamstring) could be out, while drop-happy Roddy White is banged up.

    The Falcons will be able to run the ball against the Panthers. Though Michael Turner looks slow, he should have a solid outing against a defense that has surrendered 100-plus yards in every game this season.

    RECAP: I love Carolina for the following reasons:

    1. The Falcons threw the kitchen sink against the Packers. That was a huge game for them to attempt to avenge January's home playoff defeat. They established a quick, 14-0 lead, but Green Bay mounted a comeback and ultimately won by 11. Atlanta won't have anything left in the tank for a feisty Carolina squad.

    2. Speaking of revenge, the Panthers owe the Falcons some payback after getting blown out twice in two meetings last year. If you want to quantify this statistically, teams playing a divisional road game attempting to avenge a loss of 14-plus points to the same opponent are 72-47 against the spread.

    3. Newton is 4-0 against the spread (4-0-1 if you want to be technical). He's done a great job of carrying this hungry football team desperate for victories. He's a covering machine, as he has already scored two late touchdowns to cover the spread through five weeks. Even if the Falcons are up 10 with a few minutes left, Newton can easily toss a backdoor touchdown, though I don't think it'll come down to that.

    4. I have the Falcons and Panthers right next to each other in my NFL Power Rankings. I consider them equal. Thus, Atlanta should be -3 in this contest; not -4. I do envy those who were able to get +6 when the spread first was released.

    LOCKED IN: This spread has dropped to +3.5 in lots of places. It's currently +4 -105 at Bodog. Jump on that.

    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    The Falcons threw the kitchen sink at the Packers in a revenge game. They're going to be flat against the 1-4 Panthers.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    No one on the Cam Newton bandwagon yet?
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 55% (68,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Cam Newton is 4-0 ATS.
  • Matt Ryan is 16-7 ATS at home.
  • Mike Smith is 13-4 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -6.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 27
    Panthers +4 -105 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$525
    Over 50 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Falcons 31, Panthers 17

    Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
    Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 40.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Bengals -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Bengals -4.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    Video of the Week: ESPN really sucks, so Hank Williams had to issue an apology for comparing Barack Obama to Benjamin Netanyahu. Well, sort of. Here's a hilarious parody of Hank Williams apologizing for his Obama comments.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton's pretty good. He made one poor decision at Jacksonville when he tossed a careless interception deep in his own territory, but was solid otherwise. Dalton has been decent in every game this year, save for his Week 3 tilt against the 49ers, which is definitely forgivable based on how San Francisco has played recently.

    Dalton shouldn't have any issues moving the chains against an Indianapolis secondary that has surrendered 250-plus yards in three consecutive weeks. The Colts are 27th against the pass (8.3 YPA).

    I don't expect Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to be huge factors in this contest. The Bengals run the ball well with Cedric Benson, and Indianapolis just surrendered 100-plus yards to Jackie Battle.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts won't have nearly as much success running the ball. Joseph Addai will miss this contest, so it'll be up to Delone Carter and Donald Brown to navigate through Cincinnati's fifth-ranked rush defense. The Bengals just restricted the Jaguars to less than four yards per carry, which was an impressive feat.

    Curtis Painter didn't get much help from Addai last week, yet was able to put together a brilliant first half. He fell apart after intermission, however, so I'm not really sure what to expect from him. The Bengals are pretty stout against the pass, but the same could have been said about the Chiefs before Pierre Garcon torched Brandon Flowers on multiple occasions.

    Ultimately though, I think Indianapolis can move the chains occasionally enough to stay close to the spread. The Bengals have a really good defense, but as Blaine Gabbert proved Sunday, they're not impenetrable.

    RECAP: I posted the following trend below: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002.

    I don't think this situation really exemplifies the spirit of this system though. Large favorites have been successful prior to their bye because large favorites are typically really good teams that are focused with a week off coming up. The Bengals are solid, but they're not a really good team.

    I think I'm going to take the points because the desperate Colts are hungry for their first victory. I wouldn't bet on it though.

    The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
    The Colts are desperate for a win.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 58% (62,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Hello, Goodbye: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002 (Marvin Lewis 0-1).
  • Colts are 44-28 ATS on the road since 2002.
  • Bengals are 6-22 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Bengals are 2-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -7.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Colts 23
    Colts +6.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 40.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bengals 27, Colts 17

    Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2)
    Line: Giants by 3. Total: 49.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Giants -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Giants -4.
    Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Game, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here's the Fantasy Draft - Part 2 of Round 2:

    Rich Eisen: Welcome back to the end of Round 2. When we left off, Kurt Warner was praying.

    Kurt Warner: ...And thank you Jesus, for blessing me with this pen so I can write down my pick.

    Dennis Green: Rich, I don't know how much f***ing longer I can take this!

    Kurt Warner: And thank you lord, for blessing me with this paper so I can jot down my selections.

    Dennis Green: F*** YOUR GODS, KURT! F*** JESUS, F*** YOUR LORD, F*** YOUR PEN, AND F*** YOUR F***ING PAPER!

    Kurt Warner: I'm going to take a player blessed with great talents and great health, Kenny Britt.


    Rich Eisen: And now, to finish off Round 2, Brian Billick. Brian, are you going to make a pick this time?

    Brian Billick: Why yes, Rich. I'm going to pick Baltimore Ravens defense. I am much smarter than all of you, so any offensive players on my team can become the highest-scoring unit in our league. The final piece of the puzzle, or rather, the penultimate piece of the puzzle is securing the Baltimore Ravens defense. I will reveal the final piece of the puzzle to you all later, though if any of you had a percentage of my unparalleled intelligence, you would already know what that final piece of the puzzle is.

    Rich Eisen: Would it happen to be Matt Stover, Brian?

    Brian Billick: Why yes, Rich. I must say, you are much smarter than you look. I would have guessed that you had 2 percent of my intelligence, but now I see that you may have about 3.5 percent of my brain power.

    Rich Eisen: You're so kind, coach. Now, it's the end of Round 2, so let's change the draft order.

    Dennis Green: No! Every f***ing year, we have to change the f***ing draft order every two rounds! Why can't we just keep it the f***ing same!?

    Rich Eisen: Because it's my league.

    Jim Mora Jr: Can we take a pizza break now?

    Dennis Green: No, a**hole, we can't f***ing take a pizza break now, just like we can't f***ing change our draft order!

    Rich Eisen: Fine, we'll have a vote. All against changing the draft order every two rounds?

    *** Everyone raises their hand ***

    Rich Eisen: Well, too bad. It's my league, and I say we're changing the draft order. Let's see... Steve Mariucci is drafting first...

    Dennis Green: What the f***!? Steve Mariucci always gets what he wants! I'm f***ing quitting this league! F*** all of you!

    Jim Mora Jr: Are you sure we can't take a pizza break?

    Dennis Green: You know what? I have your f***ing pizza break right here. See this slice of pizza I have in my hand? I'm going to f***ing stick it in my f***ing black a**! How do you like that, Jim? How do you f***ing like that!?

    Rich Eisen: Let's take a break while I find a tranquilizer for Dennis Green. Stay tuned next week for Round 3.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: What the hell was that? The Giants played like absolute crap against the Seahawks. They looked like they were half-asleep, and Eli Manning didn't even play close to his top-five-quarterback level.

    The Seahawks' run defense and pass rush gave this offense fits. Ahmad Bradshaw could never get going, so Eli Manning was constantly under pressure in long-yardage situations. Fortunately for New York, the Bills are much worse against the run (26th; 5.2 YPC) than the Seahawks are (2nd; 3.1 YPC). Buffalo also has just five sacks on the year.

    I'm expecting a big rebound performance from this offense. The Giants have tons of talent, and losing a game like that to Seattle should have woken them up.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Like the Bills, the Giants have had major issues against the run. This is fixable, however, once Pro Bowl left end Justin Tuck returns to the lineup. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear as though that'll happen before New York's Week 7 bye.

    If Tuck is indeed out, Fred Jackson will continue to pile up the rushing yardage. The Giants made Marshawn Lynch look like a Pro Bowler last week, so Jackson could have yet another 200-yard performance.

    With Jackson running well, the Bills will be able to neutralize New York's pass-rushers by setting up Ryan Fitzpatrick in short-yardage situations. The much-maligned Giants' secondary will once again struggle.

    RECAP: As the spread indicates, this is a pretty even matchup. I like the Giants for a couple of units though. Tom Coughlin is 7-3 against the spread as a favorite following a loss as a favorite. Also, teams that outgain their opponents while totaling 450 yards of offense in a loss tend to bounce back as favorites the following week.

    LOCKED IN: This spread is -3 everywhere. Bodog has the best juice at -125.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    The public is suddenly in love with the Bills.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 67% (41,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.
  • Opening Line: Giants -3.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Bills 17
    Giants -3 -125 (2 Units) -- Push; $0
    Under 49.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Giants 27, Bills 24

    Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Texans at Ravens, Browns at Raiders, Cowboys at Patriots, Saints at Buccaneers, Vikings at Bears, Dolphins at Jets

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2017 NFL Mock Draft - March 29

    2018 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 17

    NFL Picks - Feb. 7

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2017 NBA Mock Draft - June 23

    NFL Free Agents


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2016): 0-2 (-$750)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-8 (2014-15: 14-19)
    Bears: 5-10 (2014-15: 14-17)
    Bucs: 8-8 (2014-15: 18-14)
    49ers: 11-5 (2014-15: 21-10)
    Eagles: 7-9 (2014-15: 16-16)
    Lions: 7-9 (2014-15: 19-13)
    Falcons: 11-7 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-21)
    Giants: 8-7 (2014-15: 14-17)
    Packers: 11-6 (2014-15: 20-15)
    Panthers: 11-4 (2014-15: 15-22)
    Rams: 8-7 (2014-15: 16-15)
    Redskins: 6-10 (2014-15: 20-13)
    Vikings: 8-8 (2014-15: 20-13)
    Saints: 12-4 (2014-15: 13-17)
    Seahawks: 11-7 (2014-15: 16-19)
    Bills: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-15)
    Bengals: 3-12 (2014-15: 13-19)
    Colts: 7-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
    Broncos: 6-10 (2014-15: 18-13)
    Dolphins: 10-6 (2014-15: 18-13)
    Browns: 5-9 (2014-15: 16-13)
    Jaguars: 6-9 (2014-15: 12-19)
    Chargers: 8-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Jets: 7-7 (2014-15: 17-14)
    Ravens: 6-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Texans: 11-6 (2014-15: 12-20)
    Chiefs: 11-6 (2014-15: 18-15)
    Patriots: 8-9 (2014-15: 22-14)
    Steelers: 10-8 (2014-15: 18-14)
    Titans: 10-5 (2014-15: 13-15)
    Raiders: 9-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
    Divisional: 44-47 (2011-15: 222-225)
    2x Game Edge: 17-10 (2011-15: 86-97)
    2x Psych Edge: 43-32 (2011-15: 151-133)
    2x Vegas Edge: 23-32 (2011-15: 218-223)
    2x Trend Edge: 42-31 (2011-15: 139-128)
    Double Edge: 18-14 (2011-15: 59-61)
    Triple Edge: 3-0 (2011-15: 3-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    by Heyman
    by Dolphintuna


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