NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks - Late Games

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 47.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Packers -4.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Packers -4.5.
Thursday, Sept. 8, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

I like to begin my Week 1 NFL Picks by complaining about the Kickoff Concert the league plans before that first Thursday night game. I avoid watching it because I have an aversion to pop culture, musicians in particular. I'm so oblivious to it as a result. Like, I thought Hannah Montana was a porn star for the longest time. I figured, if Debbie does Dallas, can't Hannah do Montana?

Unfortunately, we won't have much of a choice this year. It's either watching the Kickoff Concert, or tuning into every other TV station and hearing Barack Obama deliver some meaningless speech. Seriously, he couldn't wait an extra day to address the public? It's not like he's declaring war against Canada or anything.

Obama claims he's a big sports fan, but I'm beginning to think that it's all a farce. He gets all of his NCAA Tournament picks wrong even though he goes with nothing but No. 1 seeds, and now he's trying to keep people from watching football. If he were a real sports fan, he'd take the night off, buy a case of beer and enjoy the Packers-Saints game. It's not like he has anything important to do anyway.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I think the Packers will suffer some post-Super Bowl complacency, but it won't come from the offense. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire this preseason, and he'll have a healthy Jermichael Finley in the lineup to go along with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson. James Jones is iffy to play, but he's the No. 4 receiver, so that's not much of an issue.

The Saints figure to be better against the run this year because they signed nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, so they should have some success in shutting down Ryan Grant and James Starks. However, that's just a small victory, because they have no chance in hell of containing Rodgers. That's not a shot at New Orleans' defense; it's just that Green Bay's aerial attack is too good.

The only way the Packers don't score early and often in this contest is if they become sloppy, and commit turnovers and penalties.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Whatever I said about the Packers' scoring unit can be applied here as well. Drew Brees is just too good. Dom Capers is a brilliant defensive mind, but few quarterbacks burn blitzing defenses like Brees.

The Saints should also be able to score pretty much at will. Green Bay has tons of talent on defense, but it certainly didn't look that way in the preseason. The Packers had major issues against the likes of Colt McCoy, Kevin Kolb and even Curtis "Finger" Painter, and I think Brees is just SLIGHTLY better than those guys.

RECAP: The opening-night host has yet to lose since the NFL started scheduling the defending Super Bowl champion in this spot. The champs are a perfect 8-0. What we care about, however, is that they are 0-2 against the spread the past two years.

I like the Saints to cover for two reasons:

1. Regarding the post-Super Bowl complacency issue I mentioned earlier, I forget who said it, but someone on NBC, ESPN or CBS brought up a great point. It's not Rodgers or the coaching staff who will be guilty of the year-after letdown; it'll the role players who get caught up in the hoopla. Everyone has been doing interviews and starring in commercials, so they've lost focus. That's what I think happened to Green Bay's defense amid its struggles against McCoy, Kolb and Finger Painter.

2. I love betting on Super Six quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) as underdogs. If you've done so in every single instance since 2003, you'd be 92-44 against the spread. Brees, himself, is 30-19 ATS. I'd say that's pretty good.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
Will the Packers be focused after their Super Bowl victory?

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
About two-thirds of the action is on the defending Super Bowl champions.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 66% (67,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 50-39 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Saints are 27-19 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 30-19 ATS as a dog.
  • Opening Line: Packers -5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Saints 28
    Saints +4.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 47.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0

    Packers 42, Saints 34
    Live Kickoff Blog

    Detroit Lions (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
    Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Buccaneers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Pick.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Lions.

    Regardless of what I think about that NFL Kickoff Concert, I'm thrilled the NFL is back. I've watched every single preseason game this August - go here for recaps of all the preseason games - and I seriously feel like I've just come out of a coma. It'll be great to watch meaningful games and not have to deal with dumba** biased announcers. Here are my six favorite Inept Announcer Alerts from the preseason recaps:

    6. I can confidently say that the most biased analyst in the NFL is Ross Tucker, the color guy on the Rams Broadcasting Network. Consider the following exchange he and the play-by-play announcer had in the first quarter of their Week 1 game:

    Play-by-Play Guy: Wow, that was an obvious pass interference on Na'il Diggs.

    Ross Tucker: I don't care! The Rams did it, so it was perfect!

    5. The Denver color analyst this preseason was some guy named Alfred. Here were some quotes from Week 3:

    "Von Miller is going to be a great surprise to many people in the NFL."

    Really? He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, you know. How much of a surprise could he be?

    Alfred followed that up with an even better quote:

    "I had Von Miller rated higher than even Cam Newton."

    Someone, quick, alert Mel Kiper! His job is in jeopardy!

    4. The Seahawks TV network was ridiculous regarding the amount of sideline interviews it conducted. It seemed like it interviewed everyone on Seattle's roster in the second half of Week 2. I was half expecting play-by-play guy Curt Menefee to say, "Now, let's go down to the sideline and speak to the Seahawks' third-string fullback!"

    Speaking of which, credit Marshawn Lynch for trying his best to get out of an interview. An exchange between Menefee and Lynch in the third quarter went sort of like this:

    Menefee: Thanks for joining us, Marshawn!

    Lynch: Hello?

    Menefee: Can you hear me, Marshawn?

    Lynch: Hello?

    Menefee: Looks like we're having some audio issues.

    Lynch: Yeah, I can't hear you.

    Menefee: We'll have to talk to you later, Marshawn.

    Lynch: OK, talk to you later.

    Isn't it convenient that Lynch finally heard Menefee when he was able to get out of the interview? Unfortunately for Marshawn, Menefee and his sideline goons roped him back into giving an interview later in the second half - right after they talked to the third-string fullback, of course.

    3. Here are three stupid and/or ridiculous comments from the homer Raider announcing team in Week 1:

    1. "Marcel Reese is a matchup nightmare."

    Yeah, I'm sure opposing defensive coordinators will be tossing and turning in their sleep trying to figure out how to stop Oakland's fullback.

    2. "You thought Chris Wells was a little guy coming out of Ohio State."

    Wells weighed 235 pounds when he declared for the 2009 NFL Draft, though I guess compared to Glandor, Wells is pretty little.

    3. "Al Davis has had a lot of great draft classes."

    I'm pretty confident that Al Davis' cyclopses, mummies and gargoyles were standing behind the announcers to make sure they said this.

    2. Miami announcers Dick Stockton, Nat Moore and the senile Bob Griese are always good for funny material, and they certainly provided some in their Week 1 contest. In the first quarter, Griese claimed he didn't know who Ryan Kalil was when Stockton mentioned the Panther center's contract extension. Even worse was this exchange between Stockton and Griese in the second quarter:

    Dick Stockton: Get your tickets for the Dolphins-Texans game on Sept. 18!

    Bob Griese: What'd you call them? The Texas?

    Dick Stockton: The Texans.

    Bob Griese: Those are the Dallas Texans?

    Dick Stockton: No, those would be the Houston Texans.

    Bob Griese: Ohhh...

    1. Eagles' play-by-play guy Don Tollefson had the following to say about Nnamdi Asomugha in Week 1:

    I'm sure many young women in the Delaware Valley would love to cook and clean for Nnamdi (Asomugha), but he's so versatile that he could probably cook and clean for them.

    A combination of sexism, stupidity and homerism? Only in the preseason.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: By the way people are talking, you'd think Matthew Stafford was the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Well, he did complete 75.8 percent of his passes while maintaining a disgustingly good 12.0 YPA during the preseason. So maybe he is the greatest quarterback in NFL history.

    Before we all get ahead of ourselves, I'd like to see Stafford do something in the regular season. In three contests last year, he had a 59.4 completion percentage and a 5.6 YPA. I understand that he played the Jets and Bears in two of those games, but the fact remains that Stafford is unproven when it really counts. I'm not saying he can't be a great quarterback. I love his potential. Hell, I have him super high in my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings. But he needs to put together a string of impressive performances in the regular season before we can anoint him as the next Dan Marino.

    With all of that being said, there's no excuse for Stafford to struggle in this contest. The Tampa Bay back seven isn't at full strength yet with stud safety Tanard Jackson serving the final two games of his suspension. Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber are a pair of very good cornerbacks, but it'll be tough to contain Calvin Johnson and sleeper Nate Burleson, with Brandon Pettigrew drawing attention in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Tampa's young defensive ends will improve as the year goes along, so the Lions are catching the Bucs at a good time - though Gerald McCoy should be able to disrupt Detroit's passing attack on occasion.

    The Lions should also have success running the ball. Tampa finished dead last versus the rush in 2010, and rookie middle linebacker Mason Foster is far from a proven commodity.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I really liked the Buccaneers this year as a Super Bowl dark-horse candidate going into the preseason, but I've soured on them quite a bit after watching Josh Freeman struggle with his decision-making. Freeman really had issues reading the blitz against the Patriots in Week 2, and then went on to make some terrible passes into double coverage the following game.

    Making matters for Freeman is the fact that he has to deal with Detroit's dynamic front seven. The Tampa offensive line doesn't have a chance in hell of stopping Ndamukong Suh and company.

    If the Buccaneers want to win this game, they'll have to establish LeGarrette Blount. Detroit is susceptible against the run, so if it begins focusing on containing Blount, Freeman should be able to beat the Lions' sorry secondary with some play-action fakes.

    RECAP: Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Lions because of all the preseason hype. This has caused the spread to fall from -3 to -1. Tampa will be an underdog soon.

    Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see what Detroit did to deserve all of this respect. Sure, the preseason matters for fantasy football, but it's not a good measuring stick for how teams are actually going to perform.

    I actually think the preseason did the Lions more harm than good. They were so unstoppable against the Patriots that they've essentially become a playoff team in the eyes of the public despite the fact that they haven't had a winning record since Bill Clinton was in the White House. I think that's way too much pressure on a young squad, and that's why I'm picking the Buccaneers to pull the upset - even though they're currently favored.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    All aboard the Lions bandwagon!
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 73% (82,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Buccaneers are 3-12 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 20, Lions 17
    Buccaneers -1 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Lions 27, Buccaneers 20

    Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Falcons -1.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: None.

    If you've been reading this Web site for a while, you know that this wasn't the first preseason in which I made fun of the homer announcers. Here are some of my favorite quotes of theirs from over the years:

    5. Raiders Announcers in 2010: "The Cowboys call themselves 'America's Team.' Well, the Raiders are the planet's team!"

    4. The Jets broadcasters had three words to describe Kellen Clemens in 2009. They listed these words in capital letters: "OOPS. SURPRISE. DANGER." Take note kids, smoking crack in TV production meetings leads to stupidity.

    3. Here's an exchange between Bob Griese and Dick Stockton last year. Take a look at how out of it Stockton was:

    Griese: When I was playing football, we had one 300-pound lineman in the NFL. One! In 2000, there were 300 300-pound linemen. Guess how many 300-pound linemen there were this year?

    Stockton: 85.

    Griese: There were 345 guys who were 300 pounds or more!

    Great guess, Dick Stockton. You were just a tad off.

    2. An exchange between two Colts announcers in 2009:

    Guy 1: The game turned on the turnover.

    Guy 2: The turnover turned the game, Don!

    Ugh. How do these guys get jobs?

    1. The Eagles Television Network perennially has the worst announcers in the league. I already discussed Don Tollefson in the other capsule. Here are some gaffes from Kevin Reilly, Herm Edwards and Hugh Douglas in 2009:

    Reilly always used to make factual mistakes, calling Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones;" referring to Torry Holt as "Terry Holt;" and telling the viewers that the Eagles were playing the "Jacksonville Jag-wires." The misinformed Reilly also said of an Eagles player, "He can be big for US this year." Us? Are you on the roster, Kevin?

    Edwards and Douglas were just as painful to listen to. On one occasion, Douglas did his best Emmitt Smith impression by saying, "One of things he does that's extremely well, he catches the ball when it's thrown to him." As opposed to catching the ball well when it's not thrown to him?

    Another of Douglas' quotes: "You cannot talk about the defense without talking about Michael Vick." Really? I didn't know QB Dog Killer plays on defense.

    Herm, meanwhile, was always incoherent. Check out this bit of analysis when he was talking about an illegal contact penalty:

    "I'm OK with the first down! I'm OK with the five yards! What I don't like is the first down!"

    Two other Herm quotes:

    - After a Jason Babin sack: "Here's the key now! Here's the key! Uhh... ummm..."

    - After a poor play by QB Dog Killer: "That's good! That's good! That's OK! That's good! That's OK!"

    The best part was that Reilly always had hostility toward Herm for some reason. He either disregarded whatever Herm said, or just completely cut him off. Here are some examples:

    Herm: This kid... he was at... Missouri... he was a weapon... he...

    Reilly: We'll be back after a word from our sponsors!

    Another even more blatant instance:

    Reilly: What happened there, coach?

    Herm: Uhh...

    Reilly: We'll be right back after this!

    Stay tuned for more Reilly and Herm later.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: In his third preseason game, Matt Ryan attempted 42 passes in the first half. I joked about this in my 2011 NFL Power Rankings, suggesting that Ryan could throw for 9,400 yards if he threw 42 balls in every single half this year. That would be pretty awesome.

    Of course, Ryan won't get to 9,400 yards, but he could lead the league in passing yardage if the Falcons continue to run their no-huddle. Unfortunately, that won't help them win this game.

    Ryan has two great receivers at his disposal, but he also has an abysmal left tackle in Sam Baker. Julius Peppers is absolutely going to demolish Baker, which is obviously bad news for Ryan if the Falcons plan on calling 42 pass plays in either half. Establishing a balanced attack would definitely be the better strategy.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Speaking of balanced, that's something Mike Martz doesn't go for. Jay Cutler will be throwing the ball early and often, so it's a good thing that Mike Tice has retooled the offensive line after its embarrassing showing in the preseason opener. Cutler couldn't even attempt a pass against the Bills, but he barely took any sacks after that. Tice is the man when it comes to coaching up the offensive front.

    If the Bears want to score points against Atlanta, Cutler should probably avoid throwing the ball to Roy Williams, who does nothing but drop passes. Earl Bennett would be a much better option, as would Matt Forte coming out of the backfield. And in the rare instances that Forte runs the ball, he should have some success against a defense that 17th against the rush in 2010.

    RECAP: This is a trap game. Everyone is betting on the Falcons like it's easy money. I like the Bears for a few reasons.

    First of all, this spread is ridiculous. Shift the line over three points to make it a neutral-site game, and the Falcons would be -5.5 over the Bears. How in the world is Atlanta 5.5 points better than a team that nearly beat the defending Super Bowl champs twice in the final five weeks of the 2010 season and playoffs?

    Second, the Bears have to feel really disrespected by this point spread. They nearly went to the Super Bowl, losing to the Packers by seven in Weeks 17 and 20. Yet, they're home underdogs to a squad that lost to Green Bay by 27? Huh?

    And third, Atlanta isn't any good in outdoor games. The Falcons battled two playoff teams outside last year, and they lost to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers and QB Dog Killer-less Eagles by a combined score of 46-26.

    LOCKED IN: The Bears are still available at +2.5 on, +2 at CRIS and +3 -125 at Bodog. I wish I could have gotten it at +3 -110, but I'll settle for +2.5.

    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    The Bears were a touchdown away from going to the Super Bowl, yet they're home underdogs? They have to feel disrespected.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    Betting Falcons -3 seems like easy money for most.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 77% (105,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Jay Cutler is 25-43 ATS.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -1.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Falcons 20
    Bears +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bears 30, Falcons 12

    Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
    Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chiefs -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Chiefs -6.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Bills.

    To those of you who are fairly new to the site, I'll have detailed NFL Picks like these each week. Also, look for the following features each week:

  • 2012 NFL Mock Draft Updates
  • Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings
  • Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em (link will be available Tuesday morning)
  • 2011 NFL Power Rankings
  • College Football Game Recaps with 2012 NFL Draft Implications
  • 2011 NFL Game Recaps
  • Emmitt on the Brink - Season 4!
  • 2012 NFL Draft Prospect Ranking Updates
  • Jerks of the Week
  • 2013 NFL Mock Draft Updates
  • College Football Picks

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I didn't even think Todd Haley could be this stupid. Haley didn't take the first three games of the preseason seriously, so he went all out in Week 4, playing Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe well into the third quarter. This brilliant plan of his backfired; Tony Moeaki is out for the year, while Matt Cassel is in danger of missing this game with cracked ribs. I've been bashing Haley for years, but he's just making it too easy now.

    Cassel has a chance to play, but the Chiefs are screwed either way. If he suits up, he won't be 100 percent and will consequently hurt the team. If he's out, the dreadful Tyler Palko will start. Palko is left-handed, so this would mean that Barry Richardson would be his blind-side protector. For those of you unfamiliar with Richardson, he's perhaps the worst starting lineman in the NFL. He was so bad against Green Bay's scrubs in the preseason finale that he had to karate chop a defender to keep him from getting to Cassel, which drew a 10-yard holding penalty.

    Kansas City's only hope is if Jamaal Charles breaks a few long runs. That's certainly a possibility, but the Bills have revamped their defensive front. Marcell Dareus has been a stud this preseason, and both he and Kyle Williams will help fortify Buffalo's run defense.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs were going to be inept on offense even before the Cassel injury because of Charlie Weis' departure. The defense, however, is another story.

    Romeo Crennel is a defensive genius; he should have no problem figuring how to stop Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo's offensive front is very questionable, so Tamba Hali and company should be able to accumulate several sacks in this contest.

    The Bills won't be able to run the ball either. Kansas City was just 20th against the rush last year, but newly acquired nose tackle Kelly Gregg will help immensely.

    RECAP: It seems like Haley always finds a way to screw me. I LOVED the Bills +6.5 against the overrated Chiefs. With the Cassel injury, however, this spread has dropped to +4.5, or even +4 in some places.

    I still like the Bills to cover (and even win straight up) but we've lost our spread value, as well as the opportunity to bet on the Six and Six Rule. More on that later.

    UNIT CHANGE & LOCKED IN: Matt Cassel will start, so the spread has jumped back up to six. I LOVE the Bills now. The Six and Six Rule applies. If you don't know what that is, teams that go 6-10 or worse have a horrible track record of -6 favorites or more (22-61 ATS). Kansas City won't win seven games this year.

    Also, with Cassel in the lineup, the rest of the Chiefs players know now that they don't have to give 110 percent to beat Buffalo. The Bills were horrible last year (at least record-wise), so now that their quarterback is in the lineup, they can relax a bit.

    I'm going with a five-unit play, and I'm locking this in at +6 (available everywhere).

    The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
    Matt Cassel will play, so the Chiefs don't have to give 110 percent against the Bills.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (84,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Chiefs are 20-6 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.
  • Chiefs are 11-21 ATS at home since 2007 (5-4 in 2010).
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 16, Chiefs 13
    Bills +6 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 40 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bills 41, Chiefs 7

    Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
    Line: Texans by 9. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Colts -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Texans -7 (no Manning).
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Texans.

    If you followed this site last year, you might remember that I made a habit of responding to my spam mails. A man named Jon Wire from the "United Bank of Africoan" promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. I had to scan my ID card, so here's what I sent:

    Mister Compassion Chuck Norris

    I haven't heard from Jon Wire, but I've received numerous other spam mails this summer. One was forwarded to me by e-mailer Brian H:

    I have a proposal for you, my name is Lt. Ken William Dennison a US Army serving in the 3rd Infantry Division in Iraq. I want you to read this mail carefully and understand it.

    In 2003 I and my men found over $600 million in Saddam Hussein's hideout in Baghdad, we sent some back to the Iraq government after counting it in a classified location but we also kept some behind for ourselves. Some of the money we shared among ourselves worth over$200million, and I have kept mine for a while here in a very secured place since then just like many others, but now our new president Obama just pulled most us out of Iraq and soon I will be out of here.

    This is why I need someone that is not related to me to help me pull this cash out, everything is ready, I just need someone I can trust because we have lost a box of gold to someone few months ago and I won't like to make the same mistake again. The total amount of money I am trying to move out is $10million. Lt. Ken William Dennison

    I had to respond to Lt. Dennison's e-mail. Here's what I wrote back to him:

    Lt. Dennison,

    You e-mailed a man named Brian regarding the $600 million purse you found in Saddam Hussein's hideout. Fortunately, I was able to intercept Brian's laptop. You need not ask what happened to Brian; I have said too much already.

    I am thrilled you found the $600 million because I have been looking for it everywhere. You see, I am Saddam Hussein's bastard son, Mufasa Snow. You may have heard of Uday and Qusay, but since I was born out of wedlock, I do not appear on my father's Wikipedia page, nor do I share his last name.

    Since my father has been eliminated, I am the rightful heir to the Iraqi throne, and that $600 million is mine. Return it to me at once, and I will spare your life. Delay, and I will have your head on a spike.

    You have two weeks.

    Mufasa Snow

    Unfortunately, Lt. Ken William Dennison never responded. I'm shocked he didn't believe I was Saddam's bastard son.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As of this writing, Peyton Manning is listed as doubtful. Kerry Collins will start, and he's only been on the team for about two weeks. Uh-oh.

    The funny thing is that while Collins is learning on the job, the Texans are in the same boat. They're still unfamiliar with Wade Phillips' 3-4 scheme, so they're bound to make some mistakes. Fortunately for them, they don't have Manning on the other side waiting to take advantage of those errors.

    Collins should be OK though. He was decent at times for the Titans last year, and he certainly didn't have Indianapolis' arsenal at his disposal. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie (if he plays) and a currently healthy Joseph Addai should be able to carry the offense. The front line is a liability, but Mario Williams isn't comfortable enough in the 3-4 yet, so it's not like he's primed to sack Collins five times or anything.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Arian Foster is currently questionable. I think it would be a huge mistake for the Texans to rush him back. The correct move would be to rest him until Week 3 or 4 so that the injury doesn't resurface. Soft-tissue maladies like Foster's hamstring tend to linger, and the reigning rushing champion is taking a huge and unnecessary risk by returning early.

    I wrote "unnecessary risk" because Indianapolis' run defense is an abomination. Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, hell, even Steve Slaton could hit the century mark against the Colts. There's no reason Foster should play.

    With Houston's ground attack ripping off huge chunks of yardage, Matt Schaub will be able to avoid unfavorable passing downs, thus nullifying Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

    RECAP: I think there's a huge misconception regarding the Colts. A cliche is that Indianapolis is a bottom-five team without Manning. I couldn't disagree more.

    I'm not going to say that the Colts could make the playoffs with Collins starting 16 games. There's no way that's going to happen. But Indianapolis has plenty of talented, proud veterans like Wayne, Jeff Saturday, Addai, Clark, Garcon, Freeney, Mathis, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea who can step up for a few contests while Manning is out, much like the Steelers did without Ben Roethlisberger last year.

    The Colts are going to give 110 percent in this contest, but I can't say the same thing about Houston. The Texans have been looking forward to this game since the NFL schedule was released in April. Without Manning in the equation, Houston won't have the same fire. In fact, I think Manning being out (as opposed to playing injured) really hurts the Texans because now they're expected to win. They are not good in this role, as evidenced by what happens to them late in the year after a hot start.

    I'm picking Indianapolis to stun everyone by pulling the upset. This is not a good spot for a choking Houston team.

    The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
    The Texans were preparing for this game all spring and summer, and now Peyton Manning is out. Kind of lets the air out of the balloon a bit. Meanwhile, the Colts know they have to give 110 percent to win this game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
    Slight lean on the Texans.
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 60% (75,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won 16 of the 18 meetings (6 of last 7 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer).
  • Colts are 43-27 ATS on the road since 2002.
  • Texans are 2-5 ATS on kickoff weekends since 2004.
  • Opening Line: Texans -6.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Texans 20
    Colts +9 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Texans 34, Colts 7

    Missing Include

    Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 5. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Eagles -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Eagles -6.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Eagles.

    Video of the Week: This is from e-mailer Sean M. If you're not a fan of the stupid new rule changes, you may enjoy this hilarious video where Roger Goodell discusses the new NFL rules.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This game is a great measuring stick for how Philadelphia's offensive line is going to hold up. The Eagles are starting rookies at both center and right guard, and a converted left guard at right tackle because of Ryan Harris' injury.

    St. Louis was seventh in sacks last year, so QB Dog Killer could be running for his life quite often in this game. Of course, that's not the worst thing in the world because he's capable of breaking off a 50-yard scramble with ease. Still though, the pressure in the pocket will force some bad throws, as we saw in the two preseason contests against the Steelers and Browns.

    The other concern regarding Philadelphia's offense is that QB Dog Killer doesn't have the most reliable weapons to work worth, save for LeSean McCoy. Jeremy Maclin is coming off some sort of weird cancer scare, so he's hardly in football shape. DeSean Jackson has been a one-trick pony since suffering that concussion against the Texans last year. Brent Celek has awful hands. McCoy and his quarterback are really going to have to carry this unit.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Speaking of questionable weapons, Sam Bradford's top two targets are a rookie tight end and a small, white receiver playing out of the slot. Philadelphia's three stud corners won't have any issues shutting that down.

    If I were a Rams fan, I would also be concerned with how the offensive line is going to handle the Eagles' vaunted defensive front. Steven Jackson, who looked old and slow this preseason, won't have much success running against the Eagles. Meanwhile, Jason Babin, Trent Cole and Cullen Jenkins will harass Bradford and might just force him into a couple of turnovers.

    Bradford is smart though, so I'd expect him to figure out how to take advantage of Philadelphia's defensive liabilities, namely the linebacking corps and the safeties. It's just a matter of whether or not his supporting cast lets him down.

    RECAP: Everyone is betting on Philadelphia, but I like the Rams for a few reasons.

    First, the Eagles are a cocky bunch. They've been calling themselves the "Dream Team" all preseason. Free agents flocked to Philadelphia to form some sort of mega squad. I don't expect them to take the Rams seriously because they have the Falcons and Giants after this "easy win." This is a situation I like to refer to as a "Breather Alert" - as in Philadelphia thinks it can take a breather before battling a couple of tough opponents.

    Second, I've maintained all summer that the Eagles are an overrated team. Sure, they have tons of talented players, but they aren't a team. Not yet, anyway. And besides, they have some glaring holes that will prove to be problematic.

    And third, I like the idea of betting on Bradford as an underdog. I mentioned the whole Super Six thing in the Packers-Saints pick. I could see Bradford making it a Super Seven sometime soon. He's already 7-4 against the spread getting points.

    LOCKED IN: You can find Rams +5 in some sportsbooks, including Bodog. However, it's dropping to +4 in some places, as sharp money is pounding the line against the Eagles. I don't think we'll get a better deal than +5.

    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    Steve Spagnuolo is familiar with Andy Reid. The Eagles, meanwhile, are in a Breather Alert. Following this "easy" matchup against the Rams, they play the Falcons and Giants.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Everyone loves to bet on psychopath quarterbacks, apparently.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 80% (107,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Eagles are 69-48 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Sam Bradford is 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 26, Rams 24
    Rams +5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 44 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Eagles 31, Rams 13

    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 2. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Ravens -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Ravens -1.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Steelers.

    You may have noticed a link below each point spread and pick that says Discuss Game, Talk Trash. This is for the new Sunday Smackdown section, where you'll be able to talk about the game throughout the week and during Sunday's action. Unlike's GameCenter, anything goes, save for the obvious bad words.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: One of my friends recently remarked that I have Joe Flacco pretty low in my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings. Since they were my rankings, I obviously don't think think he's too low, but my reasoning is that Flacco is going to struggle, at least early on, without Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Neither Mason nor Heap is good right now, but Flacco had a high comfort level with both.

    Now that they're gone, Flacco will have to develop a rapport with the newly acquired Lee Evans, the rapidly declining Anquan Boldin and the raw Ed Dickson. If he had an entire offseason to get used to his new receivers, that would be one thing. But developing a rapport with these guys on the fly against Pittsburgh's dominant defense is a completely different story.

    Making matters worse, the offensive line is a huge question mark. The tackle situation was so bad that the Ravens brought in Bryant McKinnie, who was cut by the Vikings after showing up to training camp weighing 400 pounds. A slimmed-down McKinnie isn't very good either, so Flacco will have issues with his pass protection.

    The running game won't work either. Ray Rice is one of the most talented backs in the NFL and will be a threat catching passes out of the backfield, but he won't get anything on the ground versus Pittsburgh's elite front.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Like Baltimore, the Steelers have major issues on the line. The left tackle is Marcus Gilbert, who was chosen in the second round of this April's draft. Yeah, I think Terrell Suggs has a slight advantage in that matchup.

    The difference between the two teams is that Ben Roethlisberger is extremely elusive in the pocket. He can magically get out of pressure and hit his receivers for a long gain on third down. Plus, Big Ben has talented wideouts at his disposal. Mike Wallace is a stud, Hines Ward is a solid possession guy, while second-year Antonio Brown is an emerging star.

    Roethlisberger will have to make plays because the running game won't work too well. In three meetings against Baltimore last year, Mendenhall rushed for just 170 yards on 64 carries, which gave him a dismal YPC of 2.7. He did score four touchdowns though, so keep him in your fantasy lineup.

    RECAP: Remember that Super Six thing, where you bet on Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers as underdogs? Well, that applies here.

    I can't imagine the Steelers losing this game, as Joe Flacco is 0-6 against Big Ben. Still though, I can't help but think that this is a duplicate of last year's Indianapolis-Houston blowout. The Colts, coming off a Super Bowl loss, had always dominated the Texans, yet because Houston prepared for them all summer, the team was able to shock unprepared Indianapolis.

    Super Bowl losers have a dubious record in the following season opener, managing a horrendous 3-14 spread record the past 17 years. That's enough to keep me from betting more than a unit on the Steelers.

    LOCKED IN: This spread is going to fall, and the Steelers could be favored before long. It's still +2 -110 at Hop on that quickly if you're going to bet on Pittsburgh.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Ravens will be out for blood, but the Steelers aren't going to roll over or anything.

    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    The Steelers are getting a ton of money their way as a live underdog.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (43,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-14 ATS in their first game the following season.
  • History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 19 meetings (Flacco 0-6 vs. Roethlisberger).
  • Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 15-5 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 11-5 ATS as a road dog.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 14-7 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 16
    Steelers +2 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; -$0
    Ravens 35, Steelers 7

    Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
    Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Browns -6.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Browns.

    Some random NFL notes:

    1. Earlier, I listed some dumb comments made the homer analysts during the preseason. I was looking through some notes, and I found one by current Eagles announcers Don Tollefson and Brian Baldinger that I forgot to post in my preseason recaps:

    The Eagles' backups made a great play of some sort in the second half of the preseason opener. The players and coaches on the sideline were obviously giddy, and so was Baldinger, who circled Nnamdi Asomugha. The following exchange ensued:

    Brian Baldinger: There's Juan Castillo, look at how excited he is! Just look at him! He was the offensive line coach, and now he's the defensive coordinator, and he's so happy right now!

    Don Tollefson: That's actually Nnamdi Asomugha.

    Only the Eagles broadcasters could possibly confuse a 30-year-old black cornerback and a 51-year-old Mexican coach.

    2. There was some weird reporting this offseason because no one had anything better to do because of the lockout. There was some speculation that Peyton Manning would be a free agent. Peter King opined that the Chiefs wouldn't consider signing Manning because of Matt Cassel.

    Yeah, OK. Kansas City's going to pass up on one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history because they have a noodle-armed quarterback who went 20-of-51 for 185 yards, no touchdowns and five interceptions in the team's final two home games last year.

    I just had to Tweet (@walterfootball):

    Cant believe @SI_PeterKing said the Chiefs won't sign P.Manning because of Cassel. Thats like not dumping Rosie O'Donnell for Megan Fox

    3. Speaking of Peter King and horrible offseason football reporting, 610 WIP's Howard Eskin tweeted one Saturday night that the Eagles wanted to bring in Brett Favre. My dad is the biggest Favre fanboy ever, and Eskin's report prompted this conversation:

    Dad: Did you hear that the Eagles will sign Favre?

    Me: Yup.

    Dad: Finally, no more Michael Vick!

    Me: Umm... what?

    Dad: Favre will start and Vick will be on the bench.

    Me: Yeah, I don't think so.

    Dad: No, you watch. Favre is better!

    Well, I'm watching...

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Mike Brown is so ridiculously stupid. He could have obtained several high picks for Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer when each demanded to be traded. Instead, he stubbornly kept both, and all he has now is a raw red-headed quarterback to show for it. Not that there's anything wrong with ginger quarterbacks.

    Andy Dalton has been terrible this preseason. He's made dumb decisions, as any second-round rookie would, but the worst aspect of his game is his inaccuracy. He's overthrown and underthrown his wideouts often throughout all four of the exhibition contests. Dalton could be good in the future, but he's not ready to play now. There's no questioning that.

    One positive aspect about Cincinnati's offense is its running game, which may come as a shock because Cedric Benson is extremely mediocre. But the Bengals ran the ball well this preseason, thanks in part to right tackle Andre Smith finally being in shape. The problem though is that Cleveland figures to be stout against the run, as the stop unit has two 330-pound monsters starting in the interior of the defensive front.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Colt McCoy is the seasoned veteran in this matchup. McCoy is only in his second year, but I think he'll have a strong 2011 campaign despite the fact that he has very little to work with on offense. He was extremely accurate in two of his three preseason games - something that should continue against a Bengals secondary that lost Johnathan Joseph this offseason.

    The Bengals can get to the quarterback - they had 10 sacks in the final four games last year - so Cleveland will have to establish Peyton Hillis to keep McCoy in third-and-manageable situations. That should work; Cincinnati ranked 23rd against the run in 2010.

    RECAP: I honestly don't know what to make of this game. On one hand, the Browns are too young and inexperienced to be asked to cover 6.5 points against anyone. On the other hand, the Benglas are so inept on offense that 16 Cleveland points probably would be enough.

    With a gun to my head, I'd take the Browns. But I wouldn't make any sort of wager on that.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    No one wants any part of Andy Dalton right now.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 84% (77,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Bengals have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Big Dog Dominance: Divisional underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 20-9 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.
  • Bengals are 12-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Browns are 2-6 ATS as favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Bengals 7
    Browns -6.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 27, Browns 17

    Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
    Line: Jaguars by 2. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jaguars -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Preseason): Jaguars -3.
    Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Titans.

    I have some sad news to report. Bo-Bo has retired from fantasy football.

    Those of you who have been reading this site know who Bo-Bo is. If not, he's the worst fantasy football player of all time. This was his draft two years ago:

    QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis; WR3: Joey Galloway; TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick)

    Despite actually setting his lineup and putting forth some effort on the waiver wire, Bo-Bo flirted with numerous 0-13 fantasy seasons. Growing tired of losing money in fantasy leagues and being ridiculed on this Web site, Bo-Bo has decided to hang up the cheat sheet and walk away without actually going 0-13.

    Bo-Bo, you will be missed - most prominently in your leaguemates' bank accounts.

    At any rate, I had to think of something fantasy football-related to fill this spot in the wake of Bo-Bo's retirement. I've thought about it, and I've decided that I'm going to play out the entire Fantasy Draft. If you haven't seen it, here's a commercial continuously aired to promote its fantasy football league manager.

    Why just Round 2? I want to go through this entire bizarre fantasy draft. Stay tuned next week for Round 1 of the Fantasy Football Draft.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars played their starting offense for two drives against the Rams in the preseason finale. The results were disastrous. David Garrard was sacked or hit on nearly every drop-back, and save for one run, Maurice Jones-Drew couldn't find any room on the ground.

    I guess it's a good thing then that the Titans lost Jason Babin and defensive line coach Jim Washburn this offseason. The Jaguars can't block anyone, but I'm not sure Tennessee has the personnel to disrupt Jacksonville's offense.

    The question though, is how healthy is Jones-Drew? He didn't really show anything in that preseason finale, but it's not like he had the chance to. If he can run well and give Garrard some time in the pocket, the Jaguars will be able to score enough points to pull off the victory.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Jacksonville can't be pleased that Chris Johnson ended his holdout. The last time the Titans visited the Jaguars, Johnson ripped off 111 yards on 26 carries - and that was with an hobbled offensive line. He should be able to beat those numbers in this contest.

    Matt Hasselbeck, meanwhile, will really benefit from Johnson's return to the lineup. Hasselbeck was solid in the preseason opener, but then struggled a bit in the next two games. With Johnson drawing attention, Hasselbeck will be able to take advantage of short-yardage opportunities against a Jacksonville defense that is still questionable despite all the money that the front office overpaid to its free agent acquisitions this offseason.

    RECAP: I feel like the Titans are the better team, so I'm definitely taking them. I really don't have any numbers or psychological edges to support this pick, however, so it'll be a one-unit wager.

    UNIT CHANGE & LOCKED IN: David Garrard was inexplicably cut five days prior to the season opener. I don't think the Jaguars will be able to focus on this game, and they may quit on Jack Del Rio and the front office. Back in 2003, the Patriots cut one of their leaders, Lawyer Milloy, just a few days before the first game. They were completely lost at Buffalo, dropping the opener, 31-0. Garrard obviously plays a more important position than Milloy did, so the impact could be even greater.

    You can get a great deal on Tennessee +2 -105 on right now. BetUS and CRIS also have +2.

    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    The Jaguars just cut David Garrard. Talk about dysfunction.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    Action has shifted toward the Titans in the wake of David Garrard's release.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 85% (60,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Titans have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 15-5 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.
  • Titans are 24-15 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.
  • Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 season openers.
  • Jaguars are 4-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 1 NFL Pick: Titans 26, Jaguars 10
    Titans +2 (3 Units) -- Push; $0
    Under 37 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jaguars 16, Titans 14

    Week 1 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Seahawks at 49ers, Panthers at Cardinals, Vikings at Chargers, Giants at Redskins, Cowboys at Jets, Patriots at Dolphins, Raiders at Broncos

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2018 NFL Mock Draft - April 19

    2019 NFL Mock Draft - April 6

    NFL Picks - Feb. 4

    2020 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 22

    NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 15

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 6

    2018 NBA Mock Draft - Aug. 23


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2017): 0-1 (-$330)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2017): 0-1 (-$330)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2017): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2017): 1-0 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21 and seasonal, 2017): -$720

    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$3,790)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
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    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
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    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,574-2,383-151, 51.9% (+$5,125)
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    Career Over-Under: 2,080-2,031-56 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 39-24 (61.9%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-6 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 9-7 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 4-11 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 9-7 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 12-7 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 6-10 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 8-10 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 9-6 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 11-5 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 6-10 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 7-10 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 13-4 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 9-7 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 8-9 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 6-12 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 7-8 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 9-8 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 7-8 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 8-8 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 9-6 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 4-10 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 5-11 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 11-8 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 5-9 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 8-6 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 6-9 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 9-6 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 9-8 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 10-9 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 10-7 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 7-11 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 4-10 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 46-40 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 23-20 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 42-42 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 18-20 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 26-33 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 19-14 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 2-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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