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Week 16 NFL Picks



NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2008): 9-5-2 (+$1,200)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 115-104-5 (+$2,580)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Vegas betting action updated Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games



Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9)
Line: Colts by 6. Total: 44.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Colts -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Colts -7.
Thursday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR). Jaguars: OUT: RB Fred Taylor (IR), FB Greg Jones (IR), WR Matt Jones (SUSP), G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR), ILB Daryl Smith (IR), CB Rashean Mathis (IR), P Adam Podlesh (IR).

Though I failed with my Sunday and Monday night games, it felt good to bounce back last week. I went 9-5-2, winning 12 units. Most importantly, I hit my December NFL Pick of the Month with the Texans +3. I hope I can finish this season on a hot streak.

One of the games I got wrong last week, albeit it was for zero units, was the Jaguars-Packers tilt. Jacksonville had been playing dead beforehand, and without Matt "Coke Zero" Jones, I didn't think they had much of a chance against the Packers. Well, they played hard and beat Green Bay outright. That bodes well for this contest because I like Jacksonville a lot.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars haven't been able to run on anyone this season because of the multitude of injuries on their offensive front. Well, almost anyone. In the first meeting between these squads, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 228 rushing yards and a touchdown on 45 carries. Taylor is out, so Jones-Drew, who also had 59 receiving yards in that contest, will have another big game for Jacksonville.

Jones-Drew should be able to set up some play-action and running opportunities for David Garrard. Garrard had just 167 yards in that prior meeting, but he was very efficient, going 16-of-22. Garrard played well against Green Bay (21-of-33, 238 yards, 2 TDs), so look for him to post decent numbers on Thursday night. It'll help him that Indianapolis' defense won't have much time to prepare for his offense.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jeff Saturday is back, which would explain how the Colts scored 31 points against the Lions. Or, you can just point out that Detroit's defense sucks.

Jacksonville's stop unit isn't much better. They can't get to the quarterback (26 sacks), stop the run (20th) or contain the pass (30th). The Colts really shouldn't have problems lighting up the scoreboard.

RECAP: As I mentioned, I like the Jaguars a lot. This almost seems like a bowl game for them. They aren't going to the playoffs, but they can knock off their hated arch rival. Almost every Jaguars-Colts game is close; 11 of the previous 13 meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

Also, pretty much every Colts win is by single digits. Of their 10 victories, seven have been by four points or less. Eight have been by 10 points or less. They only beat the crappy Browns by four!

And finally, if you've been following my College Football Picks, I love going with live home underdogs on weeknights, where the action and line movement are heading opposite directions. In this case, most of the money is on the Colts, yet the spread has shifted from -6.5 to -6.


The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
This is a big game for the Jaguars. They hate the Colts more than any other team in the NFL, and they would love to knock them out of contention. Plus, you have the whole weeknight home underdog dynamic that you may be familiar with if you've followed my College Football Picks.


The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
If there's so much money on the Colts, why did this line drop from -6.5 to -6?
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 89% (102,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • History: Eleven of the last 13 meetings decided by 8 points or less (Colts 9-4).
  • Colts are 31-22 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
  • Peyton Manning is 23-17 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
  • Colts are 1-9 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.
  • Jaguars are 12-6 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Partly cloudy, 69 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 24
    Jaguars +6 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 44 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Colts 31, Jaguars 24

    Jaguars-Colts Recap - one of the worst beats of the year



    Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
    Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 39.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cowboys -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Cowboys -4.
    Saturday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn "Miracle Man" Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR). Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones (IR), WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier (IR), CB Pacman Jones, S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR).

    Vegas debacled the public in Week 15. Expect this trend to continue, now that most people are done their Christmas shopping. Here's the NFL Week 15 Vegas Money Breakdown.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: One of the games Vegas won was the Cowboys-Giants matchup, where Dallas covered the three at home. I had three units on the Giants because I believed Tony "Aurora Snowmo" Romo would continue his choking ways. To my chagrin, Romo was brilliant (20-of-30 for 244 yards, 2 TDs), and he, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten all laughed at the media. After that, they all blamed Ed Werder for global warming, famine and Sally Struthers' obesity. Poor Ed.

    Baltimore's defense will offer more resistance than New York's. Only two quarterbacks have thrown more than one touchdown pass this season against the Ravens, while in the past five weeks, opposing signal callers have combined for four aerial scores and eight interceptions. Baltimore's secondary has yielded only one 250-yard passing performance since Oct. 19, while no quarterback has reached the 300-yard plateau all season. That one 250-yard performance was authored by Sage Rosenfels, who also happened to lob four picks.

    It won't help Romo and his injured back that he'll be forced to throw in long-yardage situations. The Cowboys won't be able to run the ball against the Ravens' top-ranked rush defense.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Dallas' defense has been inexplicably exceptional recently. I used that particular adverb because they have so many injuries in their secondary, so give them credit for stepping up in December.

    Like the Cowboys, the Ravens won't have much luck running the ball. Dallas just limited Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw to 72 yards on 17 carries on Sunday night, and contained Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore to 47 yards on 17 attempts the week before.

    Joe Flacco will be responsible for converting long-yardage situations. While Flacco has played great since Week 7, he's starting to turn the ball over again. In the past two games, Flacco has three picks and two fumbles, while his completion percentage stands at a mere 42.9. We're going to learn a lot about the Delaware product in this matchup. Will he come up big in the clutch, or will he falter on the road in a huge game?

    RECAP: I like Dallas' attitude right now. It looks like they finally believe in themselves and that they're out to prove everyone wrong. Despite their victory over the Giants, no one on ESPN is giving them much of a chance. I also think it's a bit much to ask from a rookie to win a big December road game against a tough opponent.

    I'm taking Dallas, but I'm not exactly brimming with confidence.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    I don't know what sort of mindset the Ravens will be in after losing a tough home game to the Steelers on a bogus call. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are feeling confident.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    The public likes Dallas a bit, but not by much.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 82% (149,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Hometown Hero: Wade Phillips is 3-0 ATS at home following a home win.
  • Ravens are 12-8 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 20 instances.
  • Ravens are 5-3 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.
  • Ravens are 5-2 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.
  • Ravens are 7-20 ATS after a home game since 2005.
  • Tony Romo is 2-9 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Ravens 20
    Cowboys -4.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 39 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Ravens 33, Cowboys 24

    Cowboys-Ravens Recap - the return of Aurora Snowmo



    Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
    Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Dolphins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Dolphins -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: WR Greg Camarillo (IR), G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR). Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR), DE Turk McBride (IR).

    I mentioned the whole Terrell Owens-Jason Witten-Tony Romo fiasco in the previous write-up. They should make this into a TV show. The next episode could be about the following:

    1. Someone claiming to be the mother of Owens' half-sister cons the star Dallas wideout with her loser boyfriend. Owens then starts doing heroine until he crashes his car and slips into a three-day coma.

    2. Owens goes on a vacation to France with his best friend Donna. Meanwhile, things get hot and heavy between Romo and Witten at the beach club.

    3. Witten's dorky friend plays with his dad's gun at his own birthday party, and accidentally shoots and kills himself, allowing Witten to become friends with the cool kids.

    Speaking of guns, the Chiefs basically shot themselves in the foot against the Chargers. They relinquished a 21-3 lead, thanks to poor defense and a dropped onside kick recovery by Dwayne Bowe.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins should have plenty of success versus that same Kansas City stop unit. The Chiefs are ranked dead last against the run, so Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should be able to set up play-action opportunities for Chad Pennington.

    Pennington, meanwhile, will have all the time in the world to scan the field and locate his receivers. The pathetic Chiefs have just nine sacks on the year, while the Dolphins have surrendered only 25. Kansas City's pass defense ranks in the 20s, so Pennington will convert a lot of third downs to keep drives alive.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I mentioned this on the front page of my Week 16 NFL Picks. Since Tyler Thigpen took over as Kansas City's quarterback, the team is 6-2 against the spread, even though they happen to be just 1-7 straight up. The offense has averaged 22.4 points per game with Thigpen, as opposed to 12.5 points in the six contests beforehand.

    The Dolphins can be thrown on. Though they have been better against the pass lately, Miami still ranks 19th versus aerial attacks, in terms of YPA. Just last week, they gave up 233 yards to Shaun Hill in a close contest - and Hill doesn't have the weapons that Thigpen does. The Dolphins won't be able to cover Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez.

    RECAP: I can't believe that most of the public is so willing to throw their money on the Dolphins. This is not an easy game. The Chiefs have been tough lately, and it's always difficult to capture a win in a December Arrowhead contest.

    Even though the Dolphins obviously need a victory, it's not like the Chiefs are going to simply lay down for them. This seems like a pretty evenly matched battle that could go either way.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    A potential Look-Ahead Alert for the Dolphins, who have the Jets next week. I doubt they'll take a 2-12 team seriously.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    Winning at Arrowhead in December is no easy feat. The public seems to think it is.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 77% (133,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chad Pennington is 18-11 ATS off a loss.
  • Chiefs are 13-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Chiefs are 10-3 SU in their final home game since 1994.
  • Chiefs are 4-10 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -4.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Partly cloudy, 5 DEGREES! STRONG WINDS, 20 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 14, Dolphins 13
    Chiefs +3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 37.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Dolphins 38, Chiefs 31





    New Orleans Saints (7-7) at Detroit Lions (0-14)
    Line: Saints by 7. Total: 49.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Saints -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Saints -7.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    Injuries: Saints: OUT: RB Reggie Bush (IR), RB Aaron Stecker (IR), TE Jeremy Shockey, TE Mark Campbell (IR), DE Charles Grant (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Mike McKenzie (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), CB Aaron Glenn (IR), S Kevin Kaesviharn (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR), KR Courtney Roby (IR). Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), WR Shaun McDonald (IR), WR Mike Furrey (IR), DE Jared DeVries (IR), DT Cory Redding (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), CB Keith Smith (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR), S Dwight Smith (IR).

    College Football Notes:

    1. For those wondering, I will be posting picks for the Winter practice games by Thursday morning. You can find them on my College Football Picks page. Because there are so many of these meaningless practice games, I'll be going on a week-to-week basis.

    2. Did anyone find it odd that CBS magically made the Alabama-Florida matchup No. 1 versus No. 2, when Florida was really No. 4? Way to lie to your audience, jerks. Maybe FOX can make this Lions-Saints contest the "Battle of the Unbeatens."

    3. It's a disgrace Charlie Weis wasn't fired. Tyrone Willingham was debacled by USC, 41-0, and was fired three days later. Now, Weis' pathetic squad can't get a first down until the last play of the third quarter, and he's allowed to keep coaching? I'm convinced Weis threatened to eat the entire student body if he was fired. That's the only explanation I have for his still being in South Bend.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Despite his 0-14 record, I wouldn't necessarily say that Rod Marinelli deserves to be axed. It's not his fault Matt Millen set him up with one of the worst defenses of all time.

    On paper, the Saints should be able to dissect Detroit's stop unit, ranked 31st against the run and 32nd versus the pass. Pierre Thomas will have a big day moving the chains on the ground, setting up Drew Brees for easy throws.

    But that's just one side of the story. While Brees versus the Lions looks tempting, you have to remember that Brees has epically failed on the road this year. As a visitor, he has 12 interceptions to just nine scores. That's a stark contrast compared to his home figures (19 TDs, 4 INTs).

    DETROIT OFFENSE: There are only a few good things Millen did during his tenure in Detroit. He drafted Ernie Sims. And umm... he didn't blow up Ford Field. Oh, and he drafted Calvin Johnson, who has been amazing this year.

    Megatron has been double-teamed ever since the Lions traded away Roy Williams, and it hasn't affected his play at all. He's currently ranked fifth in receiving yardage, and could be even higher after this contest is over. Who's going to cover him, Jason David?

    As for Kevin Smith, don't look for much out of him on the ground. The Saints are somehow 11th versus the rush, and they just bottled up Matt Forte. Smith could be a factor in the passing game, however.

    RECAP: This could be the game that the Lions finally win. Think about it - what exactly do the Saints have to play for? They're out of the playoff picture. And I'm not buying the whole "We Can't Lose to a Winless Team" mentality. The entire NFLPA is like a fraternity. Unless players are bitter rivals, no one wants to see someone else fail. I'd contend that the Saints could possibly lose this game on purpose to keep Detroit from achieving eternal shame.


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Saints are out of the playoffs. As for the Lions, Rod Marinelli recently held up a team photo and asked his players if they wanted that picture to be sent to Canton for the wrong reasons. These next two weeks are the football equivalent of life or death for Detroit. The Lions will play their heart out.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    I'm shocked that no one is betting the Lions. Shocked.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 69% (123,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-84 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Sean Payton 3-1).
  • Saints are 42-29 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Saints -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Dome.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Lions 30, Saints 27
    Lions +7 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Over 49.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Saints 42, Lions 7



    Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1) at Cleveland Browns (4-10)
    Line: Browns by 3. Total: 31.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Browns -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: QB Carson Palmer, RB Kenny Irons (IR), G Andrew Whitworth (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR), CB Jonathan Joseph (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR), S Marvin White (IR). Browns: OUT: QB Brady Quinn (IR), QB Derek Anderson (IR), WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). DOUBTFUL: TE Kellen Winslow Jr.*

    More College Football Notes:

    4. I watched a bit of the MAC Championship between Ball State and Buffalo. Apparently, no one else did. Ford Field was empty. It was a complete disgrace. Charlie Weis could have eaten all the fans in the stands, and he would have considered it a light snack. That begs the question, why are the MAC, Sun Belt and WAC in Division 1-A? Think about it - even if a team in that conference goes undefeated, the NCAA screws them by not giving them a shot at the national championship. Why not just play in Division 1-AA?

    5. Speaking of the national championship, is anyone else pumped for Alabama-Utah and Boise State-TCU? I can't ever remember having two national championships in the same season before! Hey, if the regular season is a playoff, as these greedy college and conference presidents argue, the team(s) that don't lose are the champs. That's the definition of a playoff!

    6. And speaking of Buffalo, I have to agree with Charles Barkley. If Turner Gill were white, he would have been awarded the Auburn job. Instead, the idiots at that school hired a guy who had absolutely no control of a crappy Iowa State team. I hope the Tigers keep winning four or five games every year.

    And speaking of teams that win four or five games every year...

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Holy crap, I can't believe the Bengals scored 20 points last week! I didn't think that was possible. The Redskins had no answer for 1-800-DWI Cedric Benson, while Ryan Fitzpatrick was very solid, going 16-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown.

    This doesn't bode well for the Bengals, who are likely to win and ruin their draft status. We all saw how horrific the Browns defense was on Monday night. My old college roommate Dennis was at the game, and he told me the whole crowd was laughing because Cleveland rushed only three players, yet almost every receiver was open downfield.

    I can't see the Browns stopping anyone right now, whether that's Philadelphia, Cincinnati or even Northern Iowa.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Ken Dorsey might be the worst quarterback I've ever seen since Doug Pederson. I'm being dead serious. He can't throw the ball accurately more than five yards downfield. He doesn't recognize coverage or blitzes. And he's prone to interceptions and fumbles.

    Braylon Edwards bailed him out with a few nice catches on Monday night, but now that he's not in the spotlight anymore, Edwards will likely revert back to Sloth Mode and drop a few balls this week.

    The Browns will have to count on Dorsey, of course, because Jamal Lewis has regressed, becoming one of the slowest men to ever walk the planet. It's really embarrassing, and he should save whatever face he has left and retire immediately.

    RECAP: The Bengals showed some signs of life last week. The Browns, meanwhile, will have a negative hangover after humiliating themselves on national TV. I'll take the points in this dreadful matchup.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    At least the Bengals are trying. The Browns didn't seem to put forth much effort on Monday night.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    No surprise that the public is fading the Browns.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 71% (57,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Bengals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Monday Misery: Teams are 15-27 ATS after a MNF loss of 17+ since 1999.
  • Browns are 12-2 ATS after allowing 30 or more points under Romeo Crennel.
  • Browns are 6-12 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 35.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Snow showers, 24 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 26 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Bengals 10, Browns 7
    Bengals +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 31.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Bengals 14, Browns 0





    San Diego Chargers (6-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)
    Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Buccaneers -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Buccaneers -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: .
    Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Buccaneers: OUT: RB Earnest Graham (IR), FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR).

    Baseball Hot Stove League Notes (I tie this into football):

    It's official. Brian Cashman is the worst general manager of all time, eclipsing Matt Millen and Isiah Thomas. Cashman, who has the uncanny ability to find the crappiest free agents on the market and vastly overpay them, just paid a quarter of a billion dollars to a fat pitcher who didn't want to play in New York and perennially chokes in the playoffs, and other hurler who had a 4.07 ERA last year. It's only a matter of time before Cashman starts drafting wide receivers every year and trading for worthless, overrated thugs like Stephon Marbury.

    Anyway, moving on to this game, I've had a few people ask me how in the world the Chargers are still in the playoff picture at 6-8. Thanks to Denver's futility, San Diego will get into the postseason if they win out and the Broncos lose this week. Crazy, I know.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Not that winning this week is a given. The Buccaneers have been exposed recently via the ground game, but running the ball is the one thing the Chargers can't do offensively. LaDainian Tomlinson had an MCL tear in January and a few turf toe injuries earlier in the year. That's why he's been so ineffective this season. He couldn't even expose Kansas City's last-ranked rush defense, gaining a mere 39 yards on 15 carries.

    Consequently, It seems like San Diego is a bit behind the eight ball. If the team tries running with Tomlinson, it will epically fail. And if it just abandons the run and airs it out with Philip Rivers, Tampa Bay's secondary could come up with a few turnovers. Not even the red-hot Matt Ryan was able to do much against the Buccaneers. Ryan threw for 206 yards, but tossed two picks and fumbled twice.

    Philip Rivers is obviously more seasoned than Ryan, but I wouldn't expect him to have a great performance against Tampa Bay's 10th-ranked aerial defense.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jon Gruden is expected to announce his starting quarterback on Wednesday. Bucs fans will obviously be hoping for the safe Jeff Garcia because Brian Griese is a wreck. Sure, he has the stronger arm, but he's good for a trio of turnovers every week. Griese also takes way too many sacks. One has to wonder why Luke McCown didn't get the nod last week.

    That said, it may not matter in this contest because San Diego's defense sucks. The Chargers can't get any pressure on the quarterback (26 sacks), while stopping the run is also an issue (17th).

    Regardless of who is under center, the Buccaneers will lean on Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams, setting up play-action opportunities for either quarterback. With plenty of time to scan the field, Garcia and Griese will be able to connect multiple times with the red-hot Antonio Bryant, who is desperately playing for a new contract so he can screw over yet another franchise.

    RECAP: I like the Buccaneers here. Unlike a lot of their fans, I still have some faith in them - I've yet to move them from No. 11 in my NFL Power Rankings. They're an excellent home team, while the Chargers have to make the unenviable West to East Coast trip and play at 1 p.m. Norv Turner is 0-3 against the spread as San Diego's head coach in those instances.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both teams pretty much need a win. No psychological edge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
    The public is beginning to favor Tampa Bay after equal action earlier in the week.
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (129,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 28-44 ATS since 2002 (Norv Turner 0-3 w/Chargers).
  • Road Bum: Norv Turner is 1-5 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
  • Buccaneers are 10-5 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Sunny, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 20, Chargers 13
    Buccaneers -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 42.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Chargers 41, Buccaneers 24





    San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (2-12)
    Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): 49ers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): 49ers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.
    Injuries: 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), WR Arnaz Battle (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR). Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Drew Bennett (IR), TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Orlando Pace*, OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Tye Hill (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr., KR Dante Hall (IR).

    Look, I'm not one to make fun of fat people on this Web site... OK, maybe I am. I thought you might like this exchange I had with my hot, soon-to-be lawyer friend Shauna.

    Shauna and I were talking about her former roommate Jill. Jill works in the ICU at some hospital in Pittsburgh. The other day, one of Jill's patients was a 719-pound woman.

    Shauna brought up an interesting thought: "I just like that they waited until she was 719 pounds to bring her to the hospital. Like, where were they at 600 pounds?"

    Great point. I could see it now. At 717 pounds: Wow, you're looking beautiful today! At 718 pounds: Oh, you're doing fine, you just need to hit the gym once in a while! At 719: Holy crap, you're fat! Let's roll you down to the hospital and hope they have a delivery bay in the back!

    Hopefully you found that story entertaining because this game is pretty dull. How do you promote this matchup if you're FOX? "Mike Martz seeks revenge against his former team, while Marc Bulger tries to avoid the record for turnovers in game... only on FOX!"

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Speaking of Bulger, he actually wasn't worthless last week. He was 19-of-32 for 207 yards and a touchdown, though it should be noted he was playing the Seahawks, who rank 28th against the pass. The 49ers are much better at 15th.

    Bulger threw two picks and fumbled once against the 49ers in a Week 11 meeting, but Steven Jackson was out. St. Louis' offense actually has operated more efficiently since Jackson re-entered the lineup. Jackson should be able to pump out decent yardage against the 49ers, even though they're 13th versus the rush, setting up play-action opportunities for Bulger.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Frank Gore said Tuesday that his ankle was feeling better, but it's still unclear if he's going to play. Stay tuned and check my fantasy updates for further developments on this.

    As for this contest from a picking perspective, the 49ers should be able to run the ball, regardless of who the starting running back is. DeShaun Foster impressed last week, gaining 76 yards on 18 carries. Foster also caught five balls for 25 more yards. Given that Foster accomplished this versus Miami's ninth-ranked rush defense, Foster figures to have a solid performance against the Rams, who are 29th in that same category.

    With either Gore or Foster running hard, Shaun Hill will have extra time to dissect St. Louis' putrid pass defense, ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of YPA. If Seneca Wallace could have a field day against the Rams (15-of-25, 226 yards), imagine what the red-hot Hill will do.

    RECAP: I could make a case for either side here. On one hand, the Rams have been playing better with Steven Jackson. On the other, the 49ers are on fire, and figure to be in a good spot, playing on the road right after a road loss.

    I wouldn't recommend betting this game, so I'm making this a zero-unit play. By the way, I was 2-2 in my zero-unit selections last week, which makes sense because I couldn't choose a side in any of those four contests.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    No surprise that most people are fading the Rams.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 71% (83,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-84 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Mike Singletary 1-0).
  • Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Dome.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Rams 16
    49ers -4.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 42.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    49ers 17, Rams 16





    Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (12-2)
    Line: Steelers by 2. Total: 33.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Titans -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Titans -1 (no Haynesworth).
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    Injuries: Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR). Titans: OUT: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DT Albert Haynesworth, CB Reynaldo Hill, CB Eric King.

    LenDale White took a break from his 20 dinners on Thursday evening to complain to the media about DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson being called "Smash and Dash." White said the following:

    "I was upset because I made that phrase up myself. I mean, I made it up. ... I've been swacced. If you guys don't know what that is, it's swagger-jacked and I can't believe that happened to me," White said, spelling out "swacced" upon request while stuffing his face with a dozen cheeseburgers. "Somebody messed up my whole swag and that's not cool."

    Poor LenDale. Not only has he been swagger-jacked, whatever the hell that means, his 20 dinners were interrupted. I feel sorry for him, so I'll give him four possible nicknames he can use for himself and Johnson:

    1. Happy Meal and Big Mac - This is self-explanatory.

    2. The Boy and His Blob - A 1989 Nintendo game fits the duo perfectly.

    3. The Cool Dude and the Fat Wingman - As opposed to the hot chick and her fat wingette. Fat wingettes are despised by men everywhere except Camden, where food is scarce.

    4. The Good Running Back and the Slob Who Takes His Goal-Line Carries - Anyone who owned Chris Johnson in a fantasy league this year has been swagger-jacked.

    TITANS OFFENSE: Might as well start off with the Titans offense, right? Actually, lack of offense is probably the correct terminology. The Titans scored just 12 points on Sunday, as they had problems running the football. The Boy and His Blob gained just 91 yards on 21 carries against Houston's 24th-ranked rush defense. Pittsburgh, seeded third in that category, won't offer much running room.

    With Happy Meal and Big Mac bottled up, Kerry Collins will be forced to air it out versus Pittsburgh's top-notch pass defense. Collins probably won't be able to throw the ball half the time; I know the Titans have a great offensive line, but the Steelers pass rush has been relentless this season, piling up 47 sacks. Collins has been taken down just eight times this year, but considering the Titans have battled through crap defenses like Houston, Cleveland and Detroit recently, that figures to change.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Titans are seventh against the rush and second versus the pass, so the Steelers won't have much luck on offense, right? Not really. MVP candidate Albert Haynesworth and pass-rusher extraordinaire Kyle Vanden Bosch are both out. The Titans still have great players on their stop unit, but not having Haynesworth will change everything. Just ask the Chargers how they're doing without Shawne Merriman.

    I have a feeling Willie Parker will have a bit more running room than he did at Baltimore, setting up some easy throws for Ben Roethlisberger. Without Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch, Big Ben's pedestrian offensive line won't have much of a pass rush to contend with.

    RECAP: The Titans are not a 12-2 team without Haynesworth. They won't win a single playoff game if he's not in the lineup.

    Meanwhile, the Steelers just keep finding ways to win. Whether it's larcenous officials, miraculous fourth-quarter drives or blunderous pick-sixes by the other quarterback, this team pulls wins out of its rear end every week. I have a feeling that's going to happen again.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Both squads will bring it.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    No one believes in the Titans anymore, huh?
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 89% (149,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Losing Coach: Jeff Fisher is 5-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 56-20 as a starter (45-30 ATS).
  • Titans are 16-8 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.
  • Opening Line: Titans -1.
  • Opening Total: 34.5.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Sunny, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Titans 14
    Steelers -2 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 33.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Titans 31, Steelers 14



    Arizona Cardinals (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5)
    Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Patriots -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Patriots -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR). Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O'Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, DE/OLB Adalius Thomas (IR), ILB Tedy Bruschi (IR), CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR).

    The YouTube Video of the Week: I haven't watched Saturday Night Live in a long time. After seeing this SNL Video I may start watching again. It's a funny song, and there's a super hot chick in the middle of it.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of jokes, what's up with the Cardinals defense? Four touchdowns to Tarvaris Jackson? Are you kidding me?

    Matt Cassel, who just had an honorable performance, tossing four scores himself in the wake of his father's passing, figures to torch Arizona's anemic secondary, currently ranked 22nd against aerial strikes. I mean, if Brad Clueless can figure out to throw toward Rod Hood's direction, imagine what Bill Belichick will come up with.

    New England will find some running room against Arizona as well; the Cardinals are 12th versus the rush, but they've fallen off after maintaining a top-six ranking in that department most of the season.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals played sloppily against the Vikings, but I don't think it will happen again this week. They simply didn't care about beating Minnesota after clinching the NFC West. They have something to play for here, which I'll discuss later.

    It's no secret that New England's secondary sucks. It seems like the public and media are finally starting to catch on, but I've been talking about it since November 2007. The Patriots are 26th versus the pass, and while the Raiders couldn't capitalize, the Cardinals definitely will. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are a matchup nightmare for the Patriots secondary.

    RECAP: The Cardinals were ripped by the media for not showing up to play the Vikings, and rightfully so. It was a pathetic performance for the ages.

    However, Arizona has something to play for here. Everyone always talks about the team's inability to win on the road, especially on the East Coast. This is their chance to prove everyone wrong. The Patriots offer a measuring stick for how far the Cardinals can advance in the postseason. You better believe they're going to give a better effort this Sunday.

    The Patriots need a win as well, but as ESPN radio announcer and handicapping legend Dave Cokin always says, "If a team needs a win, they're probably not that good in the first place." Cassel is untested in this sort of a situation. The Raiders didn't put up much resistance, but you can bet that the Cardinals will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Are the Cardinals mailing it in until the playoffs, or were they looking forward to this game in order to prove that they can play on the road? Regardless, the Patriots will be looking for a win to keep pace with the Dolphins and Jets.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Anyone would be crazy to back the Cardinals after last week's disgraceful performance.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 82% (123,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 28-44 ATS since 2002 (Ken Whisenhunt 3-3).
  • Patriots are 21-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 40-32 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 16-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -9.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather (Saturday Update): Snow, 33 degrees. Mild winds, 19 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 21, Cardinals 17
    Cardinals +8 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 43 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Patriots 47, Cardinals 7



    Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Texans at Raiders, Jets at Seahawks, Bills at Broncos, Eagles at Redskins, Falcons at Vikings, Panthers at Giants, Packers at Bears





    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks - Late Games



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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