NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2023

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
2023 NFL Picks: 14-13 (-$145)

2022 NFL Picks: 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 11:40 p.m. ET.

Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2 Early Games

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 48.5.
Thursday, Sept. 14, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Week 1 Analysis: Week 1 was a solid week that could have been so much better had the Chargers hung on to their lead with two minutes remaining. Had the Chargers covered, I would have began 5-0 in the SuperContest. Oh well. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Lions, 3 units (win): Mike Tirico said this was an asterisk win, but did he forget that the Chiefs’ right tackle got away with false starting on every play?

Buccaneers, 5 units (win): I’d like to personally thank Kirk Cousins for throwing this game away with such sloppy play.

Titans, 4 units (win): Credit Mike Vrabel for knowing that good teams win and great teams cover. I don’t know why he kicked the field goal at the end, but I’m thrilled that he did it.

Packers, 3 units (win): We would have bet more on the Packers had there not been a receiver scare for them late in the week. It turned out that it didn’t matter because the Packers dominated in every facet.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): WTF happened to this defense?

Rams, 5 units (win): I bet the Rams before any other team in Week 1. It was nice to recognize the Seahawks fraud.

Giants, 3 units (loss): The Giants are not 40 points worse than the Giants. Those two fluky touchdowns at the beginning set the tone. I think the next matchup will be much closer.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles didn’t exactly light the world on fire with their offense in Week 1. In fact, they were quite sluggish. They won the game, but only did so because of a couple of turnovers their defense caused in the early stages of the afternoon. Philadelphia nearly blew its 16-0 lead at the very end.

However, that was a matchup against Bill Belichick, who had all summer to prepare a game plan against a coaching staff with two new coordinators. The Eagles, meanwhile, were looking ahead to this game. They’ll be far better equipped to exploit a Minnesota defense that has some major problems. The Vikings can’t generate pressure on the quarterback outside of Danielle Hunter, while their secondary can’t stop anyone.

I don’t know how Minnesota’s poor stupid, I mean, stop unit will contain the Eagles. We saw it last year when Hurts torched Minnesota in Week 2. It seems as though history will repeat itself, though this time it’ll be on Thursday night instead of a Monday.

MINNEOSTA OFFENSE: Most quarterbacks don’t handle pressure well, but there are some who succumb to it more than others. Kirk Cousins is one such quarterback. The dichotomy between Cousins’ performances when kept clean versus under pressure is extremely vast.

This is not a good time for Cousins to have a difficult matchup. He was very sloppy in the opener at times. He did a good job of moving the chains in between the 20s for the most part, but often squandered opportunities deep in enemy territory.

Cousins would love to lean on Alexander Mattison, a strategy that would have worked last year when the Eagles struggled to defend the run. However, Philadelphia looked greatly improved versus the rush last week, severely limiting Rhamondre Stevenson.

RECAP: It was a year ago to the week that I made the Eagles my September NFL Pick of the Month. It was this very matchup, as the Eagles hosted the Vikings on a Monday night. There was a huge difference though, and that would be the spread. Philadelphia was -2.5 in that game. One year later, the Eagles are now favored by a touchdown!

Of course, we know the Eagles are a much better team than the Vikings now. I held this opinion back then, but many public bettors did not. Now, it’s apparent, especially in the wake of Minnesota’s home loss to the Buccaneers.

However, I think this is too much of a line shift. The Eagles have a brand new assistant coaching staff, so early-season struggles like we saw last week in New England are natural. Meanwhile, the Vikings will have a chance for the back-door cover in this game with Cousins being able to throw to so many weapons in garbage time.

I like the Vikings here for a couple of units. I wouldn’t go crazy with this because Minnesota isn’t very good, but I’m not comfortable relinquishing every single key number with the Eagles and their brand new coaching staff.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have dropped this line from +7 to +6.5 and even +6 in some places. This might be because the Eagles have some injuries, but the Vikings could be without two starting offensive linemen. If they are, I’ll have no interest in betting them. Check back Thursday evening for my final thoughts!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have dropped this line to +6. I had concerns with the Vikings missing two offensive linemen, but Christian Darrisaw will play. Thus, I’m going to bet Minnesota. This will be a two-unit wager, and the best line is +6 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.
Computer Model: Eagles -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Public on the Eagles, sharps on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (730,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

• Opening Line: Eagles -8.
• Opening Total: 49.
• Weather: Clear, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Vikings 20
Vikings +6 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Push; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 34, Vikings 28

Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Line: Chargers by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I wanted to begin with this side of the ball because I was so utterly confused on Sunday. How in the world did the Chargers’ pass rush, which features Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, produce no pressure on Tua Tagovailoa? They produced pressure on just 11.1 percent of drop-backs, which was seventh-worst among all teams in the NFL in Week 1. This was despite the Dolphins missing their left tackle, Terron Armstead!

I have to believe that this was a fluke result. We’ll find out soon enough because the Titans have been graded as one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Blocking was an issue last week versus the Saints, a team that doesn’t even have a solid pass rush. The pressure Ryan Tannehill saw forced him into three (almost four) interceptions and two missed touchdowns in the final quarter. As bad as Tannehill was last week, he should see even more pressure in this game. Should, being the key word.

The one good thing the Chargers did defensively last week was slow down Raheem Mostert. This may bode well versus Derrick Henry, especially given Tennessee’s blocking issues. That said, tackling Henry is obviously a far more daunting task than bringing down Mostert.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Unlike the Chargers, the Titans were able to hound the opposing quarterback consistently last week. Derek Carr saw a ton of pressure, which is why the Saints were limited to only 16 points.

I don’t expect Tennessee to have so much success in this regard this week, however. The Chargers have a far better offensive line than the Saints. With more time in the pocket, Justin Herbert will be able to dissect a Titans’ stop unit that funneled toward the pass last year. Given that Tennessee surrendered so many big plays to Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed last week, I suspect we’ll see something similar this season.

The Titans are better versus the run than the pass, so Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley won’t have as much success running the ball as they did last week. Ekeler, however, will pick up chunks of yardage as a receiver out of the backfield, as usual.

RECAP: There’s a major mismatch in this game that can’t be ignored. That would be the Charger pass rush against Tennessee’s offensive line. As mentioned earlier, I can’t see the Titans keeping the Chargers out of the backfield. Week 1 results say otherwise, but I believe common sense will prevail.

Given that, I can’t back the Titans if I have no faith in their ability to block in this game. I’m going with the Chargers for a wager of two units. I wasn’t as high on this side when the line was -3.5. If you bet a -3.5 line, you need good reason to do so. I actually thought we had a good reason, given the severe mismatch, but with the line dropping to -3, we don’t even have to worry about that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa missed Wednesday’s practice. If he’s out, I’ll have no interest in betting the Chargers. DeAndre Hopkins also missed practice Wednesday, but his availability is less important.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot going on with the injury report. The Chargers may not have Joey Bosa, which would eliminate the advantage I’ve referenced pertaining to their pass rush versus Tennessee’s poor offensive line. Austin Ekeler is doubtful, but that doesn’t bother me as much because Joshua Kelley is a solid backup. For the Titans, they’ll be without two members of their secondary – Kristian Fulton and Amani Hooker – which will be problematic against Justin Herbert. Also, Pete Skoronski was a downgrade on Friday with a missed practice, so the offensive line could be worse than expected. I may still bet the Chargers for a unit or two if Bosa is active come Sunday morning, but if he’s out, I won’t have a wager on this game.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Ryan Tannehill under pass attempts is 30.5 -105 at BetMGM. The sharps are on the Titans, and if they’re right, the Titans will be able to run the ball heavily and keep Tannehill from passing too much. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.
Computer Model: Titans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 62% (143,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

• Justin Herbert is 9-14 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.
• Mike Vrabel is 23-9 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.
• Opening Line: Chargers -3.
• Opening Total: 45.5.
• Weather: Slight chance of rain, 76 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Titans 17
Chargers -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Player Prop: Ryan Tannehill Under 30.5 Pass Attempts -105 (0.4 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$40

Titans 27, Chargers 24

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

• Jaguars -4.5
• Redskins -7
• Seahawks -4.5

Two of the three public teams failed to cover. The sharps also had a rough week.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

• Cowboys -9.5
• Chiefs -2.5
• Saints -3
• Seahawks +6
• Giants -5
• Colts -1

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I saw a tweet this morning pointing out that Pro Football Focus graded out Justin Herbert better than “No Cookie” Jordan Love last week. This was bizarre on the surface because Fields had a miserable performance compared to Love, who threw three touchdowns. However, the rushing was taken into account, and it’s not like Love played all that well last week. Yes, the stats were nice, but consider that he was battling what could be the worst defense in the NFL.

The Falcons, like the Bears, were incapable of producing any pressure on the quarterback. They ranked dead last in pressure rate in each of the past two years. Things have changed, however, as Atlanta produced pressure on a third of plays last week, which was good for seventh in the NFL. This should not have surprised anyone, given that the Falcons made some key moves in the offseason, signing Calais Campbell and Kaden Ellis, among others.

Love will see more pressure in the pocket in this game than he did last week, which could cause some problems. The Packers may be limited with their weapons with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones both banged up. Jones was enormous in last week’s win, and I don’t think the Falcons will have much of an issue defending just A.J. Dillon, as their improved personnel has also made them better versus the rush.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I would love this Atlanta team if it had anything positive at quarterback. Desmond Ridder is just a caretaker, and he did a good job in that role last week. He’ll eventually be forced into winning games, but that’s down the road. I don’t think he’ll be put into that position this week.

The Falcons generated most of their production last week by feeding the ball to Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. I have to believe that formula will be successful once again, as the Packers have a long history of struggling to defend the run. The Falcons’ tremendous ground game should be able to take advantage of this liability.

When Ridder is forced into throwing, he’ll at least have some dynamic threats at his disposal, ranging from Robinson, to Drake London, to Kyle Pitts. London didn’t log a single reception last week, and while that will certainly change this Sunday, I’m looking more at Pitts as having a better matchup versus a sketchy Packer safety group.

RECAP: What a difference a week makes. No one wanted any part of the Packers last week when they were battling the Bears as underdogs. Yet, they’re now favored, and everyone is talking about how great they are.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think Green Bay’s win last week was that impressive. The Bears have a horrendous roster, yet it took the Packers a bit to pull away. Now, Aaron Jones is banged up, so if he can’t go, the Packers will be devoid of weapons if Christian Watson is also sidelined.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are underrated. They made so many quality moves this offseason, so it was not a surprise to see them prevail by two touchdowns over Carolina. The Falcons are better than the Bears, so if the Bears were -1.5 over the Packers, shouldn’t Atlanta at least be at that number?

This isn’t the best value play, but I like the Falcons for a few units. I wish there was more of an overreaction to the line because the hype with Green Bay is getting pretty nuts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson missed Wednesday’s practice. If they’re both out, I’ll increase my unit count on the Falcons, as Green Bay won’t have any explosion in its offense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Jones failed to practice all week, while Christian Watson went DDL in practice. There’s a good chance both are out. Also, David Bakhtiari is questionable after failing to practice all week. This wouldn’t have been a huge deal a year ago when Atlanta had a bad defense, but that’s no longer the case. Sharp money has moved in on the Falcons to make them slight favorites. I’m going to increase the unit count to four.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Desmond Ridder is 9.5 -113 at FanDuel. This is a big game for the Falcons, so Ridder might be more inclined to scramble. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers won’t have David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson. A ton of sharp money has been on the Falcons. Unfortunately, the line has moved. It’s -3 in many sportsbooks, but you can still get -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.
Computer Model: Falcons -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (153,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

• Falcons are 7-25 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 32 instances.
• Opening Line: Packers -1.
• Opening Total: 41.5.
• Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Packers 20
Falcons -2.5 -118 (4 Units) – Bookmaker  — Incorrect; -$470
Over 40.5 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0
Player Prop: Desmond Ridder Over 9.5 Rushing Yards -113 (0.4 Units) – FanDuel  — Correct; +$40

Falcons 25, Packers 24

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)
Line: Texans by 1. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some from our old friend Nephtali Diaz:





How long have I had the Thursday Thoughts/Saturday Notes/Final Thoughts setup? Why does Nephtali not think that I change units throughout the week? I swear, this guy is “special” or something. He once told me that a sportsbook he has an account with sends him Thanksgiving and Christmas turkeys every year. Yeah, and I’m the King of England.

I also had this exchange with this soccer fanatic on Twitter;





Imagine liking soccer. How boring must your life be to do so?

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson couldn’t complete basic passes in the preseason, so it was surprising that he started off well versus the Jaguars. He hit six of his first seven passes, releasing the ball quickly and accurately. He also had some nice runs, keeping the Colts around with the Jaguars for a while.

Richardson, who got banged up at the very end of the game, faces a much tougher challenge this week if he’s even ready to take the field. I’ve been talking up the Texans’ defense all summer because they were ninth in EPA last year and added Will Anderson, and they did not disappoint in the 2023 opener. The unit frustrated Lamar Jackson to no end, limiting Baltimore’s offense to just seven points in the opening half. They pressured Jackson on 41.9 percent of dropbacks, which was sixth-best in the NFL last week. The Colts don’t have a very good offensive line, so Richardson will feel lots of pressure.

Unlike Jackson, Richardson doesn’t have experience or a great supporting cast to help stave off Houston’s relentless defense. There’s no running game either, as Zack Moss won’t offer any sort of threat for the Texans.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Texans can produce great pressure on opposing passers, the Colts are not built to do so. They barely got to Trevor Lawrence last week, yet Lawrence was missing his left tackle. Houston is also missing some personnel up front, but has quality depth on the offensive line. The tackle play was solid last week, while sixth-round rookie center Jarrett Patterson handled himself relatively well.

The Texans face a less-daunting defense this week than they did in Week 1 versus Baltimore, so C.J. Stroud will have a much cleaner pocket. He’ll be able to expose an Indianapolis secondary that lost Stephon Gilmore this offseason. The Colts really struggled to cover without him last week.

One area in which the Colts can win on this side of the ball is stopping Dameon Pierce. Indianapolis was graded as the top run defense in the NFL this past week, finishing slightly ahead of Philadelphia, so the Texans will have to move the chains primarily through the air.

RECAP: I doubt most people would think that this spread is way off, but all of my numbers says it is. Seriously, all of them. My projected line is Houston -3, so if I’m correct, we’re getting a 11.99-percent marginal difference by betting the Texans. In other words, our projected win percentage, in a vacuum, goes from 50 to 61.99 percent, which is obviously very considerable.

It gets crazier, however. The computer model projects Houston to be -5. The adjusted EPA line, meanwhile, is Houston -6!

How can this be, you ask? Well, the best unit on the field in this game, by far, will be Houston’s defense. Again, the Texans were ninth in defensive EPA last year, and they added Will Anderson to the unit this offseason. They smothered Lamar Jackson last week, frustrating him into multiple turnovers. If they were able to discombobulate Jackson, imagine what they’ll do to Richardson, especially if Richardson is banged up.

I like the Texans quite a bit this week. I’ll be wagering at least three units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I didn’t like seeing that Laremy Tunsil missed Wednesday’s practice. If he’s out, the Texans are going to have way too many missing offensive linemen to bet, even against a Colts team that doesn’t pressure the quarterback very well from the edge.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh, I really liked the Texans, and so did the sharps. Unfortunately, two things have happened. First, C.J. Stroud popped up on the injury report with a shoulder injury. He was limited Friday and is listed as questionable. Second, Laremy Tunsil was downgraded in Friday’s practice, going DLD for the week. The Texans could be too banged up to bet this week, which sucks because they looked like they were in a great spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Laremy Tunsil is out, which is a huge development. C.J. Stroud will play, but we don’t know his health. I still like the Texans because their defense should dominate and win this game, but with the injuries, I want to downgrade this play to two units. The best line is -1 -102 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 57% (119,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

• History: Colts have won 31 of the 41 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.
• Opening Line: Texans -1.5.
• Opening Total: 40.
• Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Colts 10
Texans -1 -102 (2 Units) – FanDuel  — Incorrect; -$205
Under 39.5 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0

Texans 31, Colts 20

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0)
Line: Lions by 5.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Seahawks’ loss to the Rams was not very surprising. We’ve been saying how overrated Seattle was, dating back to the second half of last year. The defense is atrocious, as it can’t place any pressure on the quarterback or stop the run. The result was allowing a Cooper Kupp-less Rams offense to do as it pleased in the opener.

If the Seahawks couldn’t stop a Rams offense with a sub-par offensive line, how are they going to handle the Lions and their elite front? Jared Goff will have an eternity to throw in this game, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has to be licking his chops after seeing what Puka Nacua accomplished last week.

Meanwhile, the Lions will pound the Seahawks into oblivion. It remains to be seen if David Montgomery will lose some touches to Jahmyr Gibbs, but regardless, Detroit will be able to get whatever it wants on the ground.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Given how bad the Seattle defense was last year, Geno Smith had to carry the team into the playoffs, though he barely even got there despite two matchups against the lowly Rams late in the year. Smith deservedly won NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but he also led the league in dropped interceptions.

Smith was bound for a bit of regression, and we saw a hint of that in the opener. He had no time to throw with Aaron Donald collapsing the pocket with ease. Smith will have similar issues in this contest, as Aidan Hutchinson produced relentless pressure on Patrick Mahomes last Thursday.

Making matters worse for Smith, Tyler Lockett may not be available because of a concussion. Meanwhile, the running game won’t be available if the Lions establish a big lead. It was questionable if Kenneth Walker would be productive anyway, as the Lions project to have a solid run defense this year.

RECAP: Congratulations if you bet the Lions a week ago. Sportsbooks had Detroit listed as -3 on the advance line. The spread has since ballooned to -5.5, and even -6 in some places.

I still think the Lions are the right side, but I hate that we lost all value with this number. This spread is just screaming “back-door cover.” I don’t want any part of that, though, once again, I think the Lions will ultimately get the ATS victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks could be without their two starting tackles, which will be a nightmare against Aidan Hutchinson. I also can’t get over what a mismatch the Lions have; the Seahawks had the worst pressure rate in the NFL last year, and yet they only battled the Rams’ mediocre offensive line. How will they get to Jared Goff behind his elite blocking unit? I’m going to place a couple of units on the Lions, and I may even go higher if both Seattle tackles are out.

SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for Lions backers is that the Seahawks won’t have their starting tackles. The bad news is that the Lions will be missing their own left tackle. I don’t think this is a huge deal because the Seahawks have no pass rush, but it does erase a supreme mismatch.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
Computer Model: Lions -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 55% (186,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

• Pete Carroll is 20-11 ATS after losing as a favorite.
• Opening Line: Lions -5.5.
• Opening Total: 50.5.
• Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 17
Lions -5.5 -103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker  — Incorrect; -$205
Under 49 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0

Seahawks 37, Lions 31

Chicago Bears (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears came into the season with so much hype, with some publications projecting a 12-5 record for them. This was ridiculous, but now things have swung in the other direction, where everyone seems to think Chicago is the worst team in the NFL. This is definitely not the case.

Justin Fields is still a dangerous threat to have a huge game on the ground. He could do that versus the Buccaneers, but there’s also a decent chance he passes well. That may sound crazy, but the Buccaneers are not a team that generates quality pressure on the quarterback. The offensive line is a concern for the Bears, but Fields will enjoy more time in the pocket than he had last week.

I don’t expect the Bears’ regular rushing attack to perform very well, however. The Buccaneers are still stout versus the run with Vita Vea clogging running lanes, so Khalil Herbert will have to be more productive as a receiver out of the backfield.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I was disappointed with the Buccaneers last week. That may sound strange, given that they won as large underdogs, but I thought their offense would perform much better than it did versus Minnesota. Baker Mayfield struggled for much of the afternoon, however, despite battling a defense that took a hit to its pass rush and has a poor secondary.

Chicago has no pass rush and a weak secondary, but based on what we saw last week, there’s no guarantee that Mayfield will perform well. Then again, this perhaps shouldn’t be too surprising because Mayfield is a poor quarterback.

The Bears don’t project to be strong versus the run either, but this is another area Tampa will struggle to exploit. Rachaad White is a quality receiver out of the backfield, but he’s an extremely ineffective runner. He failed to accomplish anything in a positive matchup last week, so I don’t think he’ll be any better this Sunday.

RECAP: If Week 2 is Overreaction City, this is the capital of it for this year. Both teams have seen a great shift in their perceived outlook. For the Bears, they had some great supporters, including those who predicted that they would go 12-5. Now, many consider them to be utterly horrendous in the wake of their blowout loss to the Packers. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, were projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are now getting some hype in the wake of their victory in Minnesota.

If you’re reading this site, you’re a smart football fan, so I don’t need to tell you that it’s foolish to make such overreactions based on one week of football. Remember, in Week 1 last year, the 49ers lost to the Bears, while the Bengals suffered a home defeat to Pittsburgh. Both San Francisco and Cincinnati ended up going to their respective championship games.

Because there’s been such a big overreaction with these teams, there’s been an enormous line shift. The Bears were -1 on the advance line, yet they are now three-point underdogs. That is insane. The Buccaneers, with Mayfield, are not good enough to be three-point favorites. Obtaining four key numbers by fading them is a dream come true.

I love the Bears so much that I’m considering them to be my September NFL Pick of the Month. My one worry is that there could be miserable heat and humidity in this 1 p.m. Tampa game, so I’ll be monitoring the weather. Regardless, I’ll be betting Chicago heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So much for the Pick of the Month. The sharps bet the Bears heavily down to +2.5. I still love the Bears, but I needed four key numbers for an eight-unit pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still love the Bears despite +2.5 being gone. The Buccaneers won’t have Carlton Davis or Calijah Kancey, which makes this pick more appealing. The sharps are all over Chicago. I’m going to try to find an opportunity to buy up to +3 with -127 vig at the very most.

TEASER: I’ve decided to tease the Bears and Steelers through all the key numbers. I find it difficult to believe that either will get blown out.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Lots of sharp money on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 58% (155,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bears.

• Road Team is 123-86 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
• Bears are 19-12 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.
• Buccaneers are 37-66 ATS at home in the previous 103 instances.
• Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
• Opening Total: 44.
• Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Buccaneers 17
Bears +3 -126 (5 Units) – DraftKings  — Incorrect; -$630
Under 41.5 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0
Teaser: Bears +8.5, Steelers +8.5 (2 Units) – Bookmaker  — Incorrect; -$240

Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Divisional matchups can be funky sometimes. Certain teams just have their opponents’ number, like the Browns with the Bengals. The Jets, likewise, give the Bills fits all the time. Josh Allen has really struggled against Robert Saleh’s defense. He expressed his frustration after his four-turnover game Monday night.

Allen won’t have any such issues versus Las Vegas. The Raiders have a defense with tons of holes. Their secondary has struggled for years, and Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis won’t be facing the likes of Sauce Gardner this week.

The Raiders also struggle to defend the middle of the field. This will be significant against the Bills’ new two-tight end personnel. One of Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox could have a strong outing, while James Cook will also rack up the yardage as a receiver out of the backfield.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Though the Bills lost Monday night to the Jets, I thought there was a silver lining amid the defeat, and that was the pass rush. Despite missing Von Miller, the Bills were able to produce heavy pressure on Aaron Rodgers and Zach Wilson, thanks to Leonard Floyd’s presence. They ranked 11th in pressure rate among teams in Week 1, and it’s not like they were battling a poor offensive line.

The Raiders, by contrast, don’t have a quality blocking unit. They wanted to draft Paris Johnson seventh overall this past April before the Cardinals beat them to the punch one pick earlier. The Broncos’ weak defense wasn’t able to exploit this liability last week, but the Bills will be able to do so.

The only chance the Raiders have of being consistent on this side of the ball is establishing Josh Jacobs. The Bills displayed some leaky run defense against Breece Hall on Monday night, so Jacobs could have some big gains, provided the Raiders aren’t taken out of their running game because of an early deficit.

RECAP: The Bills were favored by 10 prior to the Monday night game. Their defeat cost them 1.5 points on the line, as the spread has dropped to -8.5. If this doesn’t seem like a huge deal, that’s because it’s not. It is somewhat significant, however, because teams favored in this range see margins land on nine and 10 a combined 5.02 percent of the time.

I’ll take all the value I can get with Buffalo. Despite the loss, the Bills are still a top-five team in the NFL. They simply had a very difficult matchup against one of the top defenses in the NFL. They’ve had issues with the Jets anyway, including last year, when they lost 20-17 to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. They’ll be fine.

I actually like the Bills more because they’re coming off a loss. Not only did the line drop a bit, but Allen will be more motivated. Allen is 9-4 against the spread off a defeat since his second season, so he’ll perform better in this much easier matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers missed Wednesday’s practice. Meyers is expected to be out, while Adams’ status is unknown. I will definitely be increasing my unit count if both are sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Davante Adams will play, but Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out. I still like the Bills for a couple of units.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Josh Allen over rushing yards is 34.5 -104 at Caesars. The Bills are coming off a loss, so I expect Allen to go all out to avoid 0-2. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.
Computer Model: Bills -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Sharp money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (197,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bills.

• Raiders are 32-52 ATS after a win since 2009.
• Josh Allen is 9-4 ATS off a loss since his second season.
• Opening Line: Bills -10.
• Opening Total: 47.
• Weather: Possible rain, 66 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Raiders 17
Bills -7 -120 (2 Units) – Bookmaker  — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0
Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 34.5 Rushing Yards -104 (0.4 Units) – Caesars  — Incorrect; -$40

Bills 38, Raiders 10

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 51.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes had to be incredibly frustrated after what transpired last Thursday. He tried his best, but he was ultimately betrayed by his receivers. Kadarius Toney was especially terrible, dropping three big passes.

Things should be better for Mahomes this week because Travis Kelce is expected back from his hamstring injury. Kelce will sorely be needed, as Mahomes can’t trust his pedestrian receivers any longer. The Jaguars can generate a quality pass rush with Josh Allen and Travon Walker, so Mahomes would be hurting if his top weapon were to miss action again.

Something else to consider is that the Jaguars have a pass-funnel defense, which is another reason why Kelce’s return will be so crucial. The Jaguars are solid against the run, so Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon won’t get much on the ground.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Kelce won’t be the only crucial piece returning for the Chiefs. Chris Jones is expected back as well, which is huge. Jones is one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, so he would sorely be missed if he were to continue his holdout.

Jones’ holdout, however, is officially over, so he’ll re-join the team and be a huge dominant force in the trenches. He’ll help disrupt Jacksonville’s offense, which could be missing two blockers in this game. Cam Robinson was already suspended, while Brandon Scherff suffered an ankle sprain this past Sunday. Scherff being out would put the Jaguars at a huge disadvantage.

With Trevor Lawrence under pressure, the Jaguars won’t be able to maintain consistent drives. They’ll still have success at times because of their many weapons, including Calvin Ridley, but worse pass protection will likely be their undoing.

RECAP: The Chiefs we see going forward won’t resemble the one we watched in the opener. Chris Jones ended his holdout, while Kelce should return from his hamstring injury after enjoying some extra rest. If we had the Week 1 Chiefs available in this matchup, I’d like the Jaguars. Instead, Kansas City seems like a nice side to bounce back from a loss on national TV, especially if Scherff is sidelined.

However, I’m not overly excited to bet the Chiefs for a couple of reasons. One, the Jaguars circled this game when the schedule released. The Chiefs swept them last year, knocking them out of the playoffs. They’ve prepared for this game all offseason, so Doug Pederson will throw the kitchen sink at his former mentor. Two, it might be very hot and humid in Jacksonville, which could adversely affect the Chiefs. I think back to a Week 2 game in Jacksonville six years ago when the Patriots were sapped of energy because they were playing in what felt like a sauna.

There are a bunch of conflicting items in this game, making it too difficult to handicap. I’ll enjoy watching this game, but I don’t plan on betting it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Chiefs at -2.5 and -3, and the line is now -3.5. Travis Kelce was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which might be on the reasons why they have done so.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars have some potential injury issues with their offensive line. Their left tackle is already suspended, while two interior blockers – Brandon Scherff and Luke Fortner – are both questionable. With the Chiefs trending back to full strength – Travis Kelce was limited all week – it’s easy to understand why the sharps are betting on them.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Skyy Moore under 2.5 receptions is +120 at BetMGM. Moore sucks, and with Travis Kelce back, there’s no reason for him to be very heavily involved in the offense. Most other sportsbooks have the juice at +100, but MGM has +120 listed. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
No one wants to bet on the Jaguars?

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 72% (220,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

• Patrick Mahomes is 72-19 SU, 48-42 ATS (37-30 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
• Patrick Mahomes is 9-7 ATS after a loss.
• Jaguars are 56-100 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
• Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.
• Opening Total: 51.
• Weather: Thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 24
Chiefs -3 (0 Units)  — Correct; $0
Over 51 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0
Player Prop: Skyy Moore Under 2.5 Receptions +120 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM  — Incorrect; -$50

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 46.
Sunday, Sept. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I think it’s safe to say that every AFC North quarterback disappointed in Week 1. No one was worse than Joe Burrow, however, as he was responsible for only six first downs being produced. This shouldn’t have been a big shock, however, given that Burrow hurt his calf during training camp. Given what Aaron Rodgers endured after dealing with a balky calf, Burrow should consider himself lucky that he didn’t tear his Achilles.

Still, Burrow was terrible, but there’s a chance he’ll be much better this week after some more recovery time. There’s also a possibility that Burrow will continue to struggle. His health is a huge unknown, making this game extremely difficult to handicap.

If Burrow were healthy, I’d like him in this matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore took some hits to its stop unit this offseason, and Burrow usually performs well against the Ravens anyway.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his performance against the Texans. Jackson saw a ton of pressure in that game and made some mistakes. He was careless with the ball, leading to some fumbles.

There’s a chance Jackson was unfocused because he didn’t take the Texans seriously, but I was down on the Ravens heading into the season because of their diminished offensive line. It could be possible that Jackson will continue to perform below expectations because the blocking will be worse this season. The Bengals have the talent to hound Jackson consistently, so despite the added talent to the receiving corps, Baltimore’s offense could fail to meet expectations once again.

Another hit the Ravens took was the torn Achilles J.K. Dobbins suffered in the opener. Running backs aren’t especially important, but there’s still a talent difference between Dobbins and either Gus Edwards or Justice Hill. The Bengals should be decent against the run anyway, so the Ravens won’t get much on the ground.

RECAP: If Burrow were healthy, this would be an easy Bengals pick. Cincinnati has owned Baltimore in this rivalry, and the Ravens are overrated after losing some key players in recent offseasons.

However, there’s no telling if Burrow is going to be 100 percent. Burrow was extremely limited by his troublesome calf in the opener, which is the reason why his team achieved only six first downs. If Burrow isn’t any better, there will be a similar result. However, there’s a chance that he’ll be 100 percent or close to it with another week of rest. This is just a huge question mark, making it difficult to handicap this game. I’m going to stay away as a result.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp money on the Bengals, as the Ravens are dealing with some injuries. Joe Burrow was full in Wednesday’s practice, so that’s another reason to like Cincinnati. I may end up betting on the Bengals depending on what we see on the final injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens are terribly shorthanded. They’re down Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum on the offensive line, and they’re also going to be missing Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams in the secondary. I said I wasn’t going to bet the Bengals, but I’ve changed my mind. I still can’t go big on this though because I’m concerned about Joe Burrow not being 100 percent.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Computer Model: Bengals -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (187,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

• History: Bengals have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
• Joe Burrow is 32-13 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
• Joe Burrow is 13-3 ATS after a loss.
• Opening Line: Bengals -3.
• Opening Total: 45.5.
• Weather: Possible rain, 70 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Ravens 17
Bengals -3 -117 (2 Units) – Bookmaker  — Incorrect; -$235
Under 44 (0 Units)  — Incorrect; $0

Ravens 27, Bengals 24

Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
49ers at Rams, Giants at Cardinals, Jets at Cowboys, Redskins at Broncos, Dolphins at Patriots, Saints at Panthers, Browns at Steelers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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