NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.

Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Line: Packers by 1.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.

Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.

Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220

---

New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Line: Eagles by 5.5.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770

---

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.

Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   Julio 12-22-2011 07:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.28 (total posts: 1) 14     26 I dont think dolphins take the line.... it is not the pick of the month... You should take the OVER in this game Lions 12-22-2011 07:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.213 (total posts: 8) 38     33 Keep betting against the up and coming Lions, Walt ..... Game is starting to slow down for Stafford and he has plenty of weapons to challenge San Diego . Unlike the bum Flacco last week. ScotteW 12-22-2011 06:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.12 (total posts: 10) 34     12 Hey guys. I've been checking out this site all season. Love it. Don't go with Walt's picks to often but use the comment section more and enjoy Walt's view on the games. Love the Under tonight and Texans -6. Dynamo, I would love to see your picks for the entire weekend and then what picks you will be placing wagers on. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to share your opinion. Jimmy 12-22-2011 06:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.176 (total posts: 1) 12     12 @Legendary Dynamo Good call on last nights game. I had TCU -9.5. I wish I would have seen ur pick yesterday. I'm taking Boise St -14 tonight. Any thoughts? waltersuck 12-22-2011 06:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77) 26     11 jets win EAGLES WIN and next week the eagles will make the playoff walter sucks tom 12-22-2011 05:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.118 (total posts: 2) 64     22 How can you say the packers are overrated, they lost one game Chavs 12-22-2011 05:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.89 (total posts: 1) 78     65 I like the Colts to cover tonight, maybe even win. I also love ASU tonight, and it appears as though the line will be Boise -15.5 or even -16 by kickoff. ASU has got a damn good senior QB in Osweiler, seasoned WR's and a nutjob playing MLB. Also, with coach Dennis Erickson leaving after this game, they will no doubt be playing very hard for him. dave 12-22-2011 05:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.143 (total posts: 1) 11     13 whats walts email? NYTony 12-22-2011 05:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.12 (total posts: 106) 21     78 The Colts will need a solid defensive effort because they simply do not have the firepower to get into an offensive shootout. Still, the Texans have not been the offensive team they were earlier in the year before Schaub was lost for the season. In the last 3 weeks, the Texans have averaged just 14 points per game and they have also given up 7 turnovers during that stretch. Rookie Yates has not been able to hit the big passes down the field. A rookie QB on the road, a team that's having turnover problems and having issues scoring the ball a 6 point favorite on the road? The Colts are actually a value play here. I expect a tight game with the final score margin being 3 points. Colts 20 - Texans 17 DJ Dana 12-22-2011 04:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29) 9     12 Thoughts on ASU v Boise State tonight? Boise will win no doubt but the line is -14 and -14.5 at some books. Teasing it down to -9.5 sounds like a better deal. Flyers 1 12-22-2011 04:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.196 (total posts: 10) 15     10 Perfect ATS Winning Trend Houston 6-0 favorites off a DOUBLE DIGIT STRAIGHT UP favorite loss Chad 12-22-2011 03:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65) 22     19 Thanks Gator. I like most of those picks, except I went to UConn and won't bet against them, and I like Florida Atlantic to keep it close with Harvard. Other than that I dig it! Steve 12-22-2011 02:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8) 14     17 Thanks for the explanation, keep posting them. I have been riding quite a few of the same picks. Gator 12-22-2011 02:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36) 15     18 in basic terms its a stats tool that shows which teams are overvalued and undervalued by both the public and somewhat less by Vegas ATS. How they perform ATS and in certain situations and how they are bet on by the public and how they perform against those percentages. I use it and then formulate my lines based on that. When my line looks really good compared to the real line using the SB then that's what I bet. Usually more effective at this time of year and then slows down as the public and Vegas catches on and adjusts the lines. I also look at the early betting trends and see what Vegas is doing with the lines....Lehigh is a great SB team and has been beating the spreads so far by quite a bit most times. When I made my bet over 70 percent of the money was on MSU and Vegas didn't adjust the line at all...usually a good sign they are liking the public/sharps/whoever taking the favorite...with that said they have adjusted the line now and MSU is up to -15.5 so maybe I jumped on that too quick and didn't give it enough time...I guess we'll see....hopefully a breather game for MSU and they coast to a close victory...it's obviously not an exact science overall and not perfect but I'll keep using it as long as it keeps winning... Steve 12-22-2011 02:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8) 11     21 @Gator...I like below except I am having a hard time betting against MSU with how they have been playing. Why is that top pick? I also don't like laying down anything against UConn at home. The rest I like, LSU and North Texas is a toss up. What is the sweat barometer based on? Pages: 1 2 ...1011 1012 1013 10141015 1016 1017 ...1475 1476

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 20


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)