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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
    Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
    Line: Packers by 1.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
    Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
    Line: Eagles by 5.5.

    Thursday, 6:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770







    Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
    Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330



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    Touchdown for Tommy 11-08-2012 07:51 am xxx.xxx.xxx.123 (total posts: 1)
    19     5

    Walter is 1-8 on his Thursday night picks...do I need to say much more?

    Colts have a terrible D, no doubt, but they have determination. Chuck Pagano is their Gipper, and quite frankly that's the American attitude the Colts need to harness to go places.

    Andrew Luck is not happy with being the best rookie QB in NFL history (overstatememnt?), so why shouldn't we play on this and realize he's going to only do his best to perform every week?

    Jags have a QB worse than Tim Tebow, an RB playing for his life (something to watch?), and a terrible D.

    My money is on the Colts -3. Flip the switch...do you honestly believe they'd be less than 1 TD at home?

    Colts -3
    Under 42.5
    nycsportzfan 11-08-2012 07:31 am xxx.xxx.xxx.109 (total posts: 7)
    6     4

    why do u always say games don't mean anything to teams? Like the giants for instance.. Uhh, ther going into a bye wk after the cincy game and are playing terrible, and u don't think there gonna wanna go to cincy and right the ship? Especially with tough teams after the bye coming up, there def gonna wanna get much needed win to "STAY" comfortably ahead in the NFC east.. They might not cover, but they are gonna win this game, as ELI's taking critisim right now and i'd be shocked to see them not come out guns a blazin and score around 27-30 points and win the game.. I say they win 27-21..
    PureLock 11-08-2012 07:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    5     9

    Sorry all, I still can't believe I have bad luck on NBA like this. This first, time I lost all as one 0-4. Wow, I'm this bad wow.................. again sorry to whom fallow me at NBA last night. I'm really hurt, guys, I just can't believe 0-4 last night on NBA.
    TRADE 11-08-2012 04:23 am xxx.xxx.xxx.183 (total posts: 1)
    15     85

    I give Arian foster..

    I get Reggie bush, Dwayne bowe and michael Crabtree. Then I drop Jared cook and Brandon Gibson.


    Good or bad trade?
    theguru66 11-08-2012 03:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    23     128

    @PureFADE

    I thought I had one too many c0cktails tonight but I think you have me beat! Are you using some kind of reverse physiology or just playing the Good Will Hunting card? And are you mocking me or "imitation is the highest form of flattery" thing? Either way, I literally had to read you post 3 times and make another drink to make an educated guess at it. Well whatever your doing I hope it works and don't forget about money management, sometimes it's hard to stay the course.

    @passengers

    The train is slooooowly starting to pick up steam as it's now at 30-25-3 in the NFL so far this year. 54% is really not making doll houses out of stacks of $100's, but every journey starts with one small step and at least it's not 5 games under.

    Jags are hosting the Colts tomorrow night it a pretty poor NFL match-up for a single night game but at least Luck is on showcase. Boy the Jags are really bad. They are hurt, no MJD, they are poorly coached, and their quarterback situation might have to me re-evaluated. HOWEVER, they have won one game this year, guess who they beat. On the road no less. But I know, a lot has happened between now and then. The Jags have digressed and the Colts are fighting for their coach winning 4 of their last 5. I like the Jaguars in this game because this is the Jags super bowl, a winnable game, at home, on Thursday Night Football, verse a team you've already seen and beaten BUT!!!! I don't think that's the play. I like the UNDER better. First game 22-17, under. Jacksonville hasn't scored more then 23 points in ANY game this year and their offense probably won't do it in this game either, remember MJD is not playing. The Colts, yes their putting up a lot of offense but have scored over 20 points ONCE in their last 4 games. Indy plays New England next week and wait to you hear the media for that match-up if Luck and Brady stay healthy. Emotional win last week, followed by a short week AND travel. Lots of things are pointing me to the under and the cherry, last years two games? 19-13 and 17-3. I am seeing 17-14 in my crystal ball. UNDER.

    Thursday Night Football:

    Colts/Jags under 42 1/2.

    Good Luck to all and stand clear of the closing doors!
    Ha 11-08-2012 03:25 am xxx.xxx.xxx.232 (total posts: 1)
    8     11

    "The consensus is that the Broncos now have a Super Bowl-caliber defense after shutting down Drew Brees."

    I laugh at the media overhyping the Broncos. They get to beat up on 3 division rivals who are probably in the worst 8 NFL teams. Throw in the Saints and Bengals too. Beat someone legit already. Stop blowing it when Hoston, Atlanta and New England come to town
    @purefade 11-08-2012 02:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.21 (total posts: 9)
    8     6

    Seriously. Down huge with purelocks picks.
    Pissed
    PureFADE 11-08-2012 02:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.28 (total posts: 2)
    12     11

    Whats up guys I am tired of seeing amateur or so called "pro" handicappers make picks and boast at how good they are it. Its a loosing cause and as intentions might be good just admit most of the time your picks suck. I for one admit I cant handicap if my life depended on it and suck at it(but have fun doing it)(:!!!! It always seams that when my team is a sure cover, something crazy happens and I do not cover by a point or two. With that said I will post all my picks and trust me Fade them to make easy money. Hop on the train boys choochoo choo because it wont take long before my bank is busted so fade me while it lasts. I Built 200 into 5k on a parlay and am already back down to 3k in a short and sweet 1 week; so hope on board while we are already in motion.
    All Aboard The Fade Train!!
    Tickets Please, I should be charging your 9.99$ a month but I like this board so its free.

    Thursday Picks(FADE)
    Colts (-3), 50 to win 37
    Colts (over 42.5) 150 to win 136
    Over plus spread 50 to win 120

    Quick Analysis:
    Luck just had a career performance and what a way to keep it going against Jacksonvilles secondary. We also know jacksonville can put some points on the board so I think this will go over but Colts will win by a TD. Remember my analysis is probably going to be completely wrong so fade these picks to make easy money.
    Happy fading!!
    @purelock 11-08-2012 01:20 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.28 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    Bro your basketball picks suck big time....So id keep them to yourself and not try to entice us in loosing our money. Or change your name to purefade
    bearclaw 11-08-2012 12:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.11 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    Ohhh mann Walt took Bears!!! This sucks
    BHPicks 11-08-2012 12:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 29)
    4     42

    Another winning night here at BHPicks going 2-1 on the record! We continue to cash in on all sports here and we have had a FANTASTIC past few days. We are rolling in the NFL and NBA especially and it will all continue. We are 14-4 the past 5 nights and we look to continue adding to the winning record. Make sure to join us tonight as we have another NFL Thursday Night game where we have a 8-1 record and continue to prove we know the sports handicapping industry better than any handicapper around!
    Evan 11-08-2012 12:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.201 (total posts: 3)
    4     5

    Cortland Finnegan usually covers the slot when the Rams have 3 corners on the field (the majority of the game) so Finnegan will probably be covering Vernon Davis a lot, he should be able to handle him.
    theguru66 11-08-2012 12:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    20     6

    @Walter

    Hey Walt, not sure if you read this part of your sight but if you do I must rant a little about some of your post today. I usually only read the "fluff" early in the week because I don't like to influence my picks until later in the week with your analysis so that being said...

    how can you STILL think the Titans were the right side in their game with the Bears??!! You were DEAD wrong on that one and when that happens just say ok, I got that one dead wrong, apologize, and move on. You then compound it by saying if they didn't have 3 fumbles, a block kick, and all that other jazz they would have only lost 17-16!?? First of all, that stuff DID happen and it happened for a reason, the Bears defense is playing at 85 Bears defense status right now! They force turnovers frequently, that;s what they do. It wasn't flukey that they had that many turnovers. Also, the Bears probably could have held the Titans to 7 points if they REALLY wanted to, once the game got out of hand the Bears eased up a little. So the score would have been completely different. Not only that but you should know that strange things happen all the time in football and all that matters is the final score. Either way, the BEARS MURDERED the Titans and any way you slice it the TITANS WERE NEVER the right side! EVER.

    Great site by the way, and thank you much for running a great ship. The best part, you do it all for free which I for one am a big proponent of.
    Joe 11-08-2012 12:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx.232 (total posts: 9)
    13     16

    LOL love the Mario Migelini stuff
    theguru66 11-07-2012 11:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     7

    another correction, sorry, that last post should read...

    all is NOT back to 100% but is getting there. Must have had one to many c0cktails tonight! LOL


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

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    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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