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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
    Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
    Line: Packers by 1.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
    Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
    Line: Eagles by 5.5.

    Thursday, 6:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770







    Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
    Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330



    Leave a comment

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    JETHRO 11-10-2012 04:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     3

    MY PLAYS FOR AFTERNOON:
    STANFORD -5.5
    TX A&M +13.5
    NAVY -3
    NEW MEX. ST. +22.5
    AIR FORCE +7
    W. MICH. -3
    CLEMSON -31
    PureLock 11-10-2012 04:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    3     3

    SORRY ALL FOR EARLY PICKS, I HOPE I CAN GET THE WF. ANYWAY HERE IS MY PICKS FOR 3:30PM

    W.MICHIGAN AT BUFFALO: 3:30PM
    PICK: BUFFALO(+3) FOR 8UNITS

    NAVY AT TROY: 3:30PM
    PICK: NAVY(-3) FOR 8UNITS

    PENN ST AT NEBRASKA: 3:30PM
    PICK: PENN ST(+9) FOR 8UNITS

    MARYLAND AT CLEMSON: 3:30PM
    PICK: CLEMSON(-31) FOR 8UNITS

    LET'S GET BACK ON TRACK NOW, GLTA
    madturk 11-10-2012 04:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.22 (total posts: 12)
    3     3

    came home shopping with wife 2 c what u boys like, went to bet but games started so i caught half time bets = wis-3 iowa-3 rutgers -7 nw +5 20$ round robin not bad THANKS GUYS
    coalcracker 11-10-2012 04:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.131 (total posts: 42)
    3     3

    pick of the day........


    San diego state/Air Force over 57
    mr T 11-10-2012 03:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.239 (total posts: 12)
    3     5

    @purelock n guru66

    here free picks
    navy -3 1000
    ok st 500

    gl
    chuckster 11-10-2012 03:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     4

    @@chuckster: Wow, I really don't know where to start from that last attack post. I guess first of all, English can't be your first language... right?? Double negatives aside jerk weed, what have I ever done to you to get such a response??? Also man, I gotta ask.... Do you kiss your farm animals with that mouth??? Anyway, NBA tonight: Three team eight point teaser with: Dallas +2, Chicago Pick, Houston +1. Good luck to all....Even the Morons.
    DJF 11-10-2012 03:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.19 (total posts: 3)
    7     3

    I posted my picks/plays on djfritsch.com if anyone's curious.

    Have some GREAT luck this weekend, y'all.
    @chuckster 11-10-2012 02:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx73.0 (total posts: 2)
    66     61

    Don't nobody cares about your Damn teasers! Why don't you take a 12" dildo tease it to a 25" and stick it up where the sun don't shine!!!
    chuckster 11-10-2012 02:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    3     5

    Got my second straight teaser win in NBA last night. OK City, New Orleans and Spurs all doing their thing. Lost my first teaser attempt at college ball winning two out of three in the same sort of teaser. FL State, just killed me losing outright at home to a far inferior opponent. Anyway just as in college football, teaser points just don't have enough "weight" in college sports. So it's just the NFL and NBA for me folks. Back in a while if I have any NBA picks for today. GLTA. Congrats to all winners.
    Run-DMG 11-10-2012 01:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.11 (total posts: 7)
    4     10

    "Why has everyone quickly forgotten about the loss to Seattle and near-defeat versus the Jets?"

    Because a.) Seattle got lucky and b.) NYJ usually play us tough and threw everything including the kitchen sink at us. We're going to crush Buffalo.
    Kyle 11-10-2012 01:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 245)
    6     3

    How is it that the #9 team in the BCS is only a 1.5 point favorite at Syracuse?
    JETHRO 11-10-2012 01:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     5

    @PURELOCK.
    THANKS BROTHER. I WAS LEANING TOWARD N.C. ST. AND S.C. GOOD LUCK. HOPE YOU COME BACK LATER W/MORE.
    PureLock 11-10-2012 01:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    8     108

    Wisconsin at Indiana: Pick: Indiana(+7) for 6units

    Arkansas at South Carolina: Pick: Arkansas(+13.5) for 6units

    Purdue at Iowa: Pick:Iowa(-5) for 7units

    Wake Forest at NC State: Pick: WF(+7.5) for 5units

    As Alway GLTA
    @guru66 11-10-2012 12:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.214 (total posts: 1)
    2     3

    You like the over for Texas Tech?
    theguru66 11-10-2012 12:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    7     13

    Good Morning passengers, I just woke up and I am going to have to apologize because I am NEVER going to have time to post the analysis on the early college games, trust me, I did it. So with that being said, I will post my early plays without it which as you know I HATE doing but I want to get them out there so here we go....

    Rutgers -17 (Army can't throw the ball and Rutgers is very good against the run, don't see Army scoring more then 7 points)

    Under Wis/Ind (have this game in high 40's so 56 is to much)

    Texas Tech (last home game of the year, I know it's a huge number but I'm seeing 55-10)

    Iowa (Purdue is on a terrible losing streak and I think it continues)

    Miami (Virginia? I don't think so)

    GOOD LUCK!



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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