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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    JETHRO 11-14-2012 08:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    4     6

    NBA TOTALS: DET/PHIL- UNDER 186
    IND./MILW.- OVER 189.5
    MEM./OKC.- OVER 194

    SIDES: MEM +5
    CHIC -3

    @GURUBALL- LOOKS LIKE YOU GOT NCAAF NAILED. WAS LEANING TOWAR NO. ILL. BUT SPREAD SEEMS TOO HIGH.
    GURUBALL 11-14-2012 08:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    22     7

    PLAY OF THE DAY

    (TOLEDO +10) 10 units
    (BALL ST. -6.5) 5 units

    GLTA!
    Virgin X 11-14-2012 08:07 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.148 (total posts: 33)
    3     5

    like Det/o,Uth/o,Mil/u,Mem/u,Was/u,Chc/u,Atl/u and Mia/u GLTA!!
    @bfs 11-14-2012 08:07 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.133 (total posts: 15)
    4     83

    douuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuche
    bfs 11-14-2012 07:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 45)
    92     74

    Any chance the NBA talk can be on the NBA page. It's there for a reason...just a thought.
    Jake 11-14-2012 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.32 (total posts: 1)
    2     4

    Walter, all you are doing here is looking at where the majority of bets are going, and then picking the opposite way.

    Happened every single time this week except for the Packers game so far.

    I guess you figure that Vegas has to recoup some of its money?
    theguru66 11-14-2012 07:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    104     124

    Good evening passengers, another hump day night in the NBA and I have to improve on my dismal 12-14 record so far this year. Well tonight seems like a good night to start as you keep plugging away and eventually your skill will rise to the top.

    7pm, Detroit heads to Philadelphia to face the Sixers and I know the Pistons are 0-8 but come on, who are the Sixers 8 points better then? I know they just lost to the Bucks at home and rarely lose back to back home games but Detroit has lived on the road so far this year and are inching close to a win. They have played 6 western conference teams so far on the road and are obviously 0-6 in those games but it has taught them how to play these rough road games and I just don't like the way Phily is playing right now. They don't have a lot of scoring and Detroit's big man, Mr. Monroe should have a big game. I see a close one to the end, take the points.

    7:35; Utah is one of the worst road teams in the NBA and although the did win in Toronto the other night it took them 3 overtimes to do it and the Raptors had plenty of chances to win that game but missed a lot of shots. I don't think the Celtics will miss those shots tonight. This game has blow out written all over it and I will gladly lay the 5. Ok well maybe not blowout because the Celtics usually play close games but I see at least a 10 point win. 95-85.

    8:35; Dallas has lost 3 games in a row and their last one was at home. Tonight they host a Wizards team who just can NOT score enough to keep up with the Mavs and their offense. This is a perfect storm for the Mavs. They are on a losing streak, playing a bad team at home, AND the Wizards just played last night in Charlotte. Traveling down to Texas and playing the next night after you scored 76 points the night before means they might score 68 points tonight, LOL. Well not really but I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas won this game by close to 20. They average 107 per at home and the Wiz average 87 on the road, you do the math, 103-81. Lay the 8 1/2.

    10:35: personally I like the Heat tonight in LA when they face the Clippers. Any time you can get LeBron at pk'em you should probably take them. Vegas is saying the the Heat are 3 points better then the Clippers on a neutral court so you get good line value when all they have to do is win. Then you throw in the fact that the Clippers have only covered 4 of their last 18 games after winning three games in a row and have had three days off and Miami wins a close one. 100-96.

    Wednesday NBA picks:

    Pistons +8
    Celtics -5
    Mavricks -8 1/2
    Heat pk'em

    Good Luck tonight everyone!! Let's roll!
    393 11-14-2012 07:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.91 (total posts: 6)
    38     5

    NCAA
    10 unit: 302 Ball St. -6.5

    NBA
    10 unit: 709 Memphis +5.5
    10 unit: 707 New Orleans +6.5


    parlay: 5 unit

    302 + 709 + 707
    Ram Man 11-14-2012 06:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.90 (total posts: 8)
    3     4

    If I were betting on the NY/STL matchup, I'd stay away unless the spread goes to 3 1/2. On paper, the Rams should win this game by 10.

    But teams just don't come back emotionally from a 75-minute dogfight when blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead against a QB with 8 career completions....in a game they had circled the day the schedule came out.

    I also think Rex will know what tendencies Shottendinger has in certain situations and will be able to win some chess matches there.

    Rams 23-20.
    @Matt 11-14-2012 06:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.252 (total posts: 1)
    3     6

    Referees were part of John Q. Public.
    camcam250 11-14-2012 06:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.141 (total posts: 5)
    3     4

    Walt-love the sight man!!! Gotta poke a little fun though-everyone must of caught word of your miami pick cause now the line is at 2.5

    Im with ya though-miami it is!!!
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-14-2012 04:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    3     4

    A bit of a follow up here, Al Horford for atlanta is a game time decision now, no bet if he doesn't play in the game.
    Sparks 11-14-2012 03:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.72 (total posts: 11)
    7     5

    Walt, the Redskins are also 0-9 against rookie QB's over the past few years. I also remember a trend you used to post... It was to fade teams vs backup QB's, stating that teams didnt put up as much of an effort vs backup QB's and the team with the backup QB put forth their best effort.
    Matt 11-14-2012 03:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.34 (total posts: 4)
    68     4

    "Panthers +3.5 over Broncos (2 units): I'm going to have to use the F-word for this one. Fixed. This game was fixed."
    -------
    Ok, so based on your own figures last week a whopping 88% of the money was on Denver. So, you are saying some almighty being fixed the game so the public recieved a huge payout?? I'd hate to break it to you, but usually when games are "fixed" it is to screw the public and give the bookies and Vegas the big payout. Your logic makes no sense.
    To the bank 11-14-2012 03:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.156 (total posts: 3)
    10     8

    Awesome, Walter picks Miami for the Thursday night game......100 units on te bills!


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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