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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Hows that over treating u Jmac? 09-27-2012 11:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.10 (total posts: 5)
    5     7

    smart move, dude.. U don't realize, u gotta go opposite of what makes sense in football, yet? Can u say, FIXED?
    theguru66 09-27-2012 10:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    5     6

    @Jmac

    I hope you didn't get on it that hard? Although there is a long half to go.
    Jmac 09-27-2012 08:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    8     11

    Stanford/Washington game
    over 48 get on it ! ! !
    Fade walter all year 09-27-2012 08:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.239 (total posts: 1)
    7     7

    Dogs bark tonight
    ATL FAN 09-27-2012 07:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.122 (total posts: 1)
    8     7

    What you guys think:
    Chargers 2U
    Chargers 2U
    Seahawks 2U
    Pats 2U
    Alias 09-27-2012 07:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.51 (total posts: 20)
    11     8

    Not saying this is a lock but Vegas does NOT every "give money away".....sometimes they are wrong and people call it "a gift" but they don't just "give it away." Cleveland is the play tonight but I wouldn't bet a pile on it. 4 games in 18 days for Balt.....team funeral to attend this week....not focused because it is the crappy Browns....Division game...which away dogs regularly tend to cover.....I hope you can still get Cleve at 12 somewhere as I think the monkey is wrong tonight....or maybe the monkey is smarter than me.....probably a more likely scenario....
    Jmac 09-27-2012 07:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    7     9

    What up Antdogz u got a pick tonight ?
    Roll Tide 09-27-2012 07:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 4)
    8     8

    The line movement without any additional current information really bothers me, Vegas is begging us to play Balt. I made a small move on Cleveland, hard to do as they are just pathetic. Thought about buying a ticket on the train...hope to hell they are not blowing the train whistle very loud tonight!!
    GURUBALL 09-27-2012 07:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx62.7 (total posts: 46)
    12     8

    PLAY OF THE DAY
    (BAL -11) 10 units
    (STANFORD -6.5) 7 units

    Picked up 8 units last week even
    tho it was brutal...lets keep gettin this paper, Christmas is comin!!

    GLTA!!

    TheBreadMan 09-27-2012 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 7)
    5     7

    You can not imagine how many people have started showing up at this little bar on monday and thursday night . If you open a tab on your credit card before the game starts and leave it open til the game is over , no matter how much it is, if the monkey picks the winner including the point spread , and the over or under, you only pay half your tab...the guy has a house full now on monday and thursday night.
    Roll Tide 09-27-2012 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 4)
    4     5

    My man now has this at 11...must be the weather!!
    RG3FAN 09-27-2012 07:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.230 (total posts: 4)
    5     5

    The weather forecast has now changed in Baltimore from 15% chance of rain to 45%. Will that have any effect on the game?
    BIGMEN 09-27-2012 07:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.75 (total posts: 4)
    11     6

    I feel like bal+under
    TheBreadMan 09-27-2012 07:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 7)
    9     8

    4th game in 17 days = tired. I just cant bet with this monkey . I am going cleveland and the under. I say 20-17 .
    Roll Tide 09-27-2012 07:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 4)
    7     7

    Balt is coming off a late night game on Sunday, playing their 4th game in 17 days...thoughts?


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


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    NFL Free Agents - April 22


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    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
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    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
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    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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