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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440






    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 1.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

    UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
    Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0







    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
    Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
    Line: Lions by 3.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
    Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



    Leave a comment

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    Julio 12-22-2011 07:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.28 (total posts: 1)
    14     26

    I dont think dolphins take the line.... it is not the pick of the month... You should take the OVER in this game
    Lions 12-22-2011 07:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.213 (total posts: 8)
    38     33

    Keep betting against the up and coming Lions, Walt ..... Game is starting to slow down for Stafford and he has plenty of weapons to challenge San Diego . Unlike the bum Flacco last week.
    ScotteW 12-22-2011 06:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.12 (total posts: 10)
    34     12

    Hey guys. I've been checking out this site all season. Love it. Don't go with Walt's picks to often but use the comment section more and enjoy Walt's view on the games. Love the Under tonight and Texans -6. Dynamo, I would love to see your picks for the entire weekend and then what picks you will be placing wagers on. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to share your opinion.
    Jimmy 12-22-2011 06:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.176 (total posts: 1)
    12     12

    @Legendary Dynamo

    Good call on last nights game. I had TCU -9.5. I wish I would have seen ur pick yesterday. I'm taking Boise St -14 tonight. Any thoughts?
    waltersuck 12-22-2011 06:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    26     11

    jets win
    EAGLES WIN
    and next week the eagles will make the playoff walter sucks
    tom 12-22-2011 05:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.118 (total posts: 2)
    64     22

    How can you say the packers are overrated, they lost one game
    Chavs 12-22-2011 05:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.89 (total posts: 1)
    78     65

    I like the Colts to cover tonight, maybe even win.


    I also love ASU tonight, and it appears as though the line will be Boise -15.5 or even -16 by kickoff. ASU has got a damn good senior QB in Osweiler, seasoned WR's and a nutjob playing MLB. Also, with coach Dennis Erickson leaving after this game, they will no doubt be playing very hard for him.
    dave 12-22-2011 05:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.143 (total posts: 1)
    11     13

    whats walts email?
    NYTony 12-22-2011 05:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.12 (total posts: 106)
    21     78

    The Colts will need a solid defensive effort because they simply do not have the firepower to get into an offensive shootout. Still, the Texans have not been the offensive team they were earlier in the year before Schaub was lost for the season. In the last 3 weeks, the Texans have averaged just 14 points per game and they have also given up 7 turnovers during that stretch. Rookie Yates has not been able to hit the big passes down the field.

    A rookie QB on the road, a team that's having turnover problems and having issues scoring the ball a 6 point favorite on the road? The Colts are actually a value play here. I expect a tight game with the final score margin being 3 points.

    Colts 20 - Texans 17
    DJ Dana 12-22-2011 04:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29)
    9     12

    Thoughts on ASU v Boise State tonight? Boise will win no doubt but the line is -14 and -14.5 at some books. Teasing it down to -9.5 sounds like a better deal.
    Flyers 1 12-22-2011 04:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.196 (total posts: 10)
    15     10

    Perfect ATS Winning Trend

    Houston 6-0 favorites off a DOUBLE DIGIT STRAIGHT UP favorite loss
    Chad 12-22-2011 03:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.66 (total posts: 65)
    22     19

    Thanks Gator. I like most of those picks, except I went to UConn and won't bet against them, and I like Florida Atlantic to keep it close with Harvard. Other than that I dig it!
    Steve 12-22-2011 02:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8)
    14     17

    Thanks for the explanation, keep posting them. I have been riding quite a few of the same picks.
    Gator 12-22-2011 02:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    15     18

    in basic terms its a stats tool that shows which teams are overvalued and undervalued by both the public and somewhat less by Vegas ATS. How they perform ATS and in certain situations and how they are bet on by the public and how they perform against those percentages. I use it and then formulate my lines based on that. When my line looks really good compared to the real line using the SB then that's what I bet. Usually more effective at this time of year and then slows down as the public and Vegas catches on and adjusts the lines. I also look at the early betting trends and see what Vegas is doing with the lines....Lehigh is a great SB team and has been beating the spreads so far by quite a bit most times. When I made my bet over 70 percent of the money was on MSU and Vegas didn't adjust the line at all...usually a good sign they are liking the public/sharps/whoever taking the favorite...with that said they have adjusted the line now and MSU is up to -15.5 so maybe I jumped on that too quick and didn't give it enough time...I guess we'll see....hopefully a breather game for MSU and they coast to a close victory...it's obviously not an exact science overall and not perfect but I'll keep using it as long as it keeps winning...
    Steve 12-22-2011 02:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.37 (total posts: 8)
    11     21

    @Gator...I like below except I am having a hard time betting against MSU with how they have been playing. Why is that top pick? I also don't like laying down anything against UConn at home. The rest I like, LSU and North Texas is a toss up. What is the sweat barometer based on?


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 21


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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