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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
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NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440






    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
    Line: Eagles by 1.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

    UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
    Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0







    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.
  • Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
    Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
    Line: Lions by 3.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
    Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



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    Cody 11-08-2012 07:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.66 (total posts: 1)
    3     4

    Your niners analysis is pretty piss-poor.

    "The weakness of the 49ers' stop unit is the secondary."
    false. The 49ers secondary isn't the weak link. They're actually #2 overall in the NFL allowing only 184 yds per game and only 6 passing td's all season.

    "Right tackle Anthony Davis is the weak link on the unit. He's been better this season than in the past, but he can still be a liability"
    Not sure i'd consider a guy who got mid-season All-Pro selections from Sports Illustrated, NFL.com, ESPN.com and Pro Football Weekly the "weak link". The niners also have the best run game in the NFL thanks to AD. He gave up 3 sacks against the Giants, but hasn't given up a single one in the other 7 games. This o-line doesn't have a weak link.
    theguru66 11-08-2012 06:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    747     518

    Good evening passengers, not much on the board tonight but I do have some + plays. First I'll re-post my NFL play for those who aren't up in the wee hours of the night...

    The train is slooooowly starting to pick up steam as it's now at 30-25-3 in the NFL so far this year. 54% is really not making doll houses out of stacks of $100's, but every journey starts with one small step and at least it's not 5 games under.

    Jags are hosting the Colts tomorrow night it a pretty poor NFL match-up for a single night game but at least Luck is on showcase. Boy the Jags are really bad. They are hurt, no MJD, they are poorly coached, and their quarterback situation might have to me re-evaluated. HOWEVER, they have won one game this year, guess who they beat. On the road no less. But I know, a lot has happened between now and then. The Jags have digressed and the Colts are fighting for their coach winning 4 of their last 5. I like the Jaguars in this game because this is the Jags super bowl, a winnable game, at home, on Thursday Night Football, verse a team you've already seen and beaten BUT!!!! I don't think that's the play. I like the UNDER better. First game 22-17, under. Jacksonville hasn't scored more then 23 points in ANY game this year and their offense probably won't do it in this game either, remember MJD is not playing. The Colts, yes their putting up a lot of offense but have scored over 20 points ONCE in their last 4 games. Indy plays New England next week and wait to you hear the media for that match-up if Luck and Brady stay healthy. Emotional win last week, followed by a short week AND travel. Lots of things are pointing me to the under and the cherry, last years two games? 19-13 and 17-3. I am seeing 17-14 in my crystal ball. UNDER.

    Thursday Night Football:

    Colts/Jags under 42 1/2.

    Now I have two other plays, one in the association and one in the college gridiron. First to the NBA...

    Not having a great start to the NBA capping season but from what I can see on this thread not a lot of people are. Well as we get into the meat of week 2 the cappers should start to figure it out a little so let's improve on the record shall we. 6-7 is gross...

    10:35; this is probably a trap game as the spread keeps dropping but I am going to take the Portland Trailblazers tonight at pk'em against Blake and the Clippers. First off, I think the Rose Garden has one of the best home court advantages in all of basketball so RARELY do I ever take a road team in that building. Now all they have to do is win the game as the line has dropped to even. Name me one team in the NBA that you think would dominate the Blazers at home. I can't name so I believe their is good line value here. The Clippers are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights AND played at home LAST night against the Spurs so this is a back to back + travel. They crushed the Spurs last night in front of the home crowd so I think there will be a little bit of a let down tonight on the road. Not so big on long stretches of numbers BUT the Blazers are 24-6 in their last 30 games at home against LAC. Like I said this line is scaring me a little but I have the Blazers winning by 6-7 points. I'll say 105-98.

    NBA pick:

    Portland Pk'em

    College gridiron and I also like the OVER in the UL Monroe/Arkansas State game. These teams average 36 and 39 PPG and both give up at least 27 per contest. This is a Thursday game so someone is watching and the teams will empty their bags of tricks to try and impress. It is a LOT of points at 59 1/2 but if both teams score in the 30's which I believe will happen then the over is an automatic.

    NCAA pick:

    Lous-Monroe/Ark. State over 59 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone tonight, let's roll!

    PureLock 11-08-2012 06:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    4     5

    Special "ALERT" I'm drop ULMONROE, because the starting QB not playing tonight. I'm Take: Arkansas State (-7) for 3units Bonus: I lean toward UNDER(59.5)
    Ram Man 11-08-2012 06:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.44 (total posts: 2)
    2     6

    Nor, my brothers, should we dismiss the fact the Jags have only mustered 34 points in 4 homes this season.
    Dorkbeavis 11-08-2012 06:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.246 (total posts: 6)
    5     6

    I see Mr. Walter hasn't increased his units on the Jags tonight. If he was really smart, he would grow buffalo balls and take the Colts for 4 units. They will tame the Jags. Well, they have been tamed already anyway. That's why the outcome is so apparent.
    GStar 11-08-2012 06:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    7     6

    IND -3
    IND Over 42.5
    BHPicks 11-08-2012 06:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.88 (total posts: 1)
    5     7

    Free Pick:

    Thunder -1.5

    Premium Picks:

    Florida State - Virginia Tech
    Colts - Jaguars
    Jmac 11-08-2012 06:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    4     6

    Three for three tonight
    FSU under 50 2 unit
    Colts under 43 1 unit
    Colts -3 1 unit
    Ram Man 11-08-2012 05:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.44 (total posts: 2)
    5     5

    Last 9 Colts division games have gone under.
    Last 7 of 8 Jags division games have gone under.

    Book it.
    nickp 11-08-2012 05:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.157 (total posts: 4)
    5     5

    i know the public is all over the colts and almost every thursday night game this year has been a trap but i dont know if i can help but take the colts -3.5 any thoughts ? that added half point might kill the bet
    AL CIEN 11-08-2012 05:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.10 (total posts: 2)
    7     5

    TICKET

    **********************

    My picks:

    COLTS -3

    UNDER 44

    FINAL SCORE: 27-13

    **********************
    best bet i've made all year 11-08-2012 05:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.199 (total posts: 3)
    5     6

    Obama to win -360
    $500 to win $150

    just saying...
    Reader 11-08-2012 05:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.20 (total posts: 24)
    5     7

    Walt,

    Tread carefully my friend. I told you a few times before, do not be stubborn with betting on bad teams on the road. You got burned betting on the Cardinals on the road a number of times last season. Now, after Titans got destroyed by the Bears, you're betting heavy on them again. It does not make sense. And guru66 is correct, Titans certainly were not the right side last weekend. Your stubbornness may cost you again this weekend.

    - Reader
    PureLock 11-08-2012 04:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    4     23

    Wednesday Picks:

    NBA
    OKC at CHI: 8:00PM
    Pick: OKC(-2.5) for 8units: Bonus: Take:UNDER(190.5)

    L.A.Clippers at Portland: 10:30PM
    Pick: Portland(+1) for 5units: Bonus: Take: UNDER(201)

    NFL
    Indiana at Jac: 8:20PM
    Pick: Jac(+3) for 2units: Bonus: Take:OVER(42.5) Sound crazy right? But after all your wallet sound right.

    College Football
    ULMON at Arkansas ST: 7:00PM
    Pick: ULMON(+7) for 3units: Bonus: Take:OVER(59.5)

    FLST at VT: 7:30PM
    Take: VT(+12.5) for 1units: Bonus: Take:UNDER(50)

    As Alway GLTA
    foggwest 11-08-2012 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.75 (total posts: 9)
    5     4

    @theguru66 : I just got back from a getaway [ anniversary ] in the mountains and stopped to read this site before heading to Nevada to place some wagers. I agree with your assessment of the Under in tonite's game but almost fell off my chair laughing when you 'chastised' Walt for his whining about the Bear-Titan game. The last time I laughed that hard was the first time I read Walt's recap saying basically that the Titans were the 'right side'
    I enjoy this site and Walt does some great analysis but I don't think he really takes into account 'game flow' and how teams change their play according to the score.
    Virtually every team goes into a shell when they have a big lead and gives up garbage yards to eliminate any chance of their opponent coming back to win. You are 100% correct that was the case in the Bears-Titans game.


    NFL Free Agents - April 17


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


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    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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