NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
Lions 16, Bills 6

---

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 4.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Colts 17, Bengals 13

---

Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Packers 20, Chiefs 19

---

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Eagles 24, Jets 14

---

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Panthers by 2.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Steelers 33, Panthers 17

---

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Titans 32, Saints 9

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   WALT HATER KILLA 11-02-2011 01:00 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 118     52 @ Fade Walt, STFU before I make you watch me break another one off in your mom's guts. Fade Walt 11-02-2011 12:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx.211 (total posts: 45) 195     138 @ Str8 Up G, do humanity a favor and kill yourself. Radar 11-02-2011 12:48 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.64 (total posts: 1) 13     27 Walt - This statement isn't correct "Besides, it's not like the rust will just go away. Because the new stupid post-lockout rules, Palmer wasn't able to practice with his receivers during the week off. Great job, NFLPA." Palmer remained in Oakland during the bye as did several, if not all of the receivers. Not that I think Oakland wins by more than 8 WALT HATER KILLA 11-02-2011 12:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 53     42 Walt is making a huge comeback this week. Just watch. Str8 Up G 11-02-2011 12:36 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 50     190 Some of you people on here are on embarrassment to the human race. Why don't you do something with your lives? guy 11-01-2011 11:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.100 (total posts: 1) 14     13 No more post about NFL Picks Ats? hahah hes doing as bad as walter, but I still repect Walter more because he doesnt bash on people and doesnt become big headed when he wins hahah. Ryan B. 11-01-2011 11:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.46 (total posts: 13) 13     17 Gotta say I'm pretty surprised Walt isn't siding with me on San Diego. Pretty much went the exact opposite of what I thought he would do. Can't wait for the game... 8-Track 11-01-2011 11:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.90 (total posts: 87) 41     29 Ok a LOT of Favs, so the only smart picks are the underdogs with points VEGAS HAS TO MAKE $$$ well NOT this year and not this week! these aren't meant as Anti-Walt picks, it just turned out that way @Buffalo -1 Jets are an on/off team buf have shown better discipline/consistency @Dallas -12 will light it up against an inferior team @home Atlanta -7 will crush the Manningless Colts like bug @KC -5 they still suffered from poor play eariler and need to stay on point, miami will find a way to lose @NO -8 they didn't pratice for the Rams they pratice to play this game @home for revenge from Bucs win in week 6 SF -3.5 redskins still not put together easy one @Houston -11 CB are the most overated sucky team that's right they are bad and overrated, their wins came from other very bad teams Cincinnati +3 the better team with juice but away, still should cover if not an outright win @Oak -8 green Palmer still better then the overrated Tebow @NE -8.5 @home vs the inconsistent NYG an ATS upset is a real possibility for the hot/cold NYG @Ari not sure til a line, if STL get 7+ then STL if less then Ari GB -5 close ATS game I see GB winning by 7 to 10 @PIT -3 out for **revenge** from the blow out/show off victory by Bal from week one @Phi -8 have "Gelled" as long as Vick stays healthy during the MNF game the Eagles will cover Satan 11-01-2011 11:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191) 11     9 Teams on the 2nd of back-to-back road games are traditionally around a 60% bet to cover, so Walt's picks of Miami and Cleveland aren't that outrageous, especially with the undeniable emotion involved in KC's win last night. Sooner or later, Miami's going to win a game, and sooner or later the Chiefs are gonna stop forcing a million turnovers every week. I plan on taking the points in that game, and possibly the ML just to go for the home run. I still like NYG, but another play I like in that game is the under. Interestingly enough, this season, the Pats haven't once been able to top their score from the previous week, check it out: 38 35 31 31 30 20 17 ...the total's at 52 as of tonight, with literally 50% of the action on each side, so I'm gonna wait to see if I can get a bit more value as the week progresses, but just somethin to think about. JIM TODD KILLA 11-01-2011 10:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.30 (total posts: 94) 24     76 Walt is going to be fine. It's not his fault Vegas fixes the games. real madrid 11-01-2011 10:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.185 (total posts: 2) 13     20 jeff y i agree with you but i dont know i am liking bills alot this season, and i know jets has improve these pasts weeks but i see bills a little better and i think they will be focused beacuse its a divisional game but i am thinking betting patriots falcons green bay 5 units Jeff Y 11-01-2011 10:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.101 (total posts: 1) 12     16 I would probably stay away from the Jets-Bills game, but Buffalo has been killing Vegas all year. real madrid 11-01-2011 09:56 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.185 (total posts: 2) 38     12 if walt doesnot help us, we can help each other, the main idea here is to beat our bookies in this week i love green bay-6 patriots-8.5 and falcons -7 also chiefs,bills, and 49 ers but i will prefer the first 3 help me outt! so all we can win Mike 11-01-2011 09:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.102 (total posts: 4) 38     10 I have a hard time believing Walt is really this consistently bad. The average better loses money because they win some bets, which encourages them to bet more. Even a coin toss to decide the picks would get half of them right. I think Walt (or any other better) would just look at his picks and then ask himself, why not take the opposite? It's uncanny that he can be so wrong from week to week; the opposite of his old techniques for making picks are clearly the right way to bet in this new world. Scott 11-01-2011 09:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx33.7 (total posts: 7) 63     29 Walt YOU ARE INSANE, You make every argument in the world in favor of the 49ers, then just randomly take the Redskins? With all their injuries? The 49ers only need 14 - 17 points to cover the spread because no way Redskins score much. Sorry, maybe you did good in past years, but you are out to lunch this year.You put too much emphasis on the Vegas angle. NFL games are not fixed!! Ridiculous!! Pages: 1 2 ...1130 1131 1132 11331134 1135 1136 ...1475 1476

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 20


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)