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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2010



NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2010): 8-8 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,840)

NFL Picks (2010): 97-88-6 (+$6,185)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 6, 4:10 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 13 NFL Picks - Late Games



Houston Texans (5-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)
Line: Eagles by 8. Total: 52.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Eagles -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Eagles -9.5.
Thursday, Dec. 2, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

I'm proud of myself. I managed not to vomit while listening to Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen during the Bengals-Jets broadcast. I was so worried Cincinnati would pull off the backdoor cover, that I barely paid attention to them. Oh, and all the turkey I ate essentially put me into a coma.

Unfortunately, I may not be as distracted this Thursday. Here's a preview of what this Eagles-Texans game will sound like:

Bob Papa: LeSean McElroy takes a carry up to the Houston Astros' 40. First down, Philadelphia Phillies!

Joe Theismann: Look at the block by Winston Justice. Matt, that could easily be you out there because you're just as fat as Winston.

Matt Millen: You see that play? I want you to watch this. Winston Justice makes a block here. And you see that? That's what they call a block in the NFL. That's when the offensive lineman blocks a defensive player, and allows his teammate to get upfield.

Joe Theismann: I talked to Marty Mornhinweg, offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, and he told me that LeSean McCoy is a great player because he runs fast. That's what makes LeSean McCoy a great running back.

Bob Papa: Donovan McNabb back to pass, hits DeSean Johnson for a first down into Philadelphia Flyers territory! Now that's what you call a complete-complete pass.

Joe Theismann: And that's OK!

Matt Millen: You see that play? I want you to watch this. DeSean Jackson makes the catch here. And then he moves... he moves down the field about 10 or so yards after he was contacted. That's why they call that yards after contact because... because he got yardage after the contact.

Joe Theismann: Hey Matt, how many DeSean Jacksons do you think you could fit into your mouth? Ten? Fifty? I'm saying this because he's small and you're fat.

Can I go back to my turkey coma please?

Anyway, it's the usual - my NFL Picks will be posted periodically throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball to receive updates for when I post each selection.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have to be relieved that Andre Johnson wasn't suspended for the three punches he threw at Cortland Finnegan. I actually agree with the move, but if I were Roger Goodell, I'd suspend both Johnson and Finnegan for the next Houston-Tennessee game. I think that's more fair, given that Houston is on a short work week.

Unfortunately for the Texans, Asante Samuel will be back in the lineup. The Eagles really missed Samuel last week, but they should be able to put the clamps on a passing attack that really only has one potent downfield option.

However, Arian Foster could have a huge performance. Philadelphia just surrendered 114 rushing yards to the Bears, who ran the ball just 20 times. Foster has been unstoppable this year, both on the ground and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He'll have to keep Matt Schaub out of long-yardage situations; the Eagles are eighth in the NFL with 29 sacks.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Bears deserve a ton of credit for slowing down Philadelphia's blazing-fast offense. The Eagles were still able to move the chains on some drives, but bogged down in the red zone, thanks to DeSean Jackson drops and a tipped pass that resulted in an interception.

The Texans have no chance. Their defense is anemic. They rank 31st against the pass in terms of YPA; excluding last week's performance against Rusty Smith, they've allowed 1,220 passing yards in their previous four games.

Houston just doesn't have the speed to contain QB Dog Killer from scrambling around and finding his talented weapons downfield. Maybe they'd have a chance with DeMeco Ryans, but he's been out for a long time.

RECAP: It's really difficult to play at your best on a short travel week. The Texans face that challenge in this contest.

I like the Eagles here for three units. Unlike the Giants and Bears, Houston just doesn't have the manpower or the preparation time to slow down QB Dog Killer.

SURVIVOR PICK: I lost with the Giants in Survivor three weeks ago, but I'll continue to give advice for those who are still alive.

I've used the Packers and Chargers already, so the Eagles are my top choice. Here are my top six in order: San Diego, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City and New York Giants. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.


The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
Expect a loud, drunk crowd on Thursday night.


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
About two-thirds of the money is on the Eagles tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (78,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Texans are 16-28 ATS after a win (10-12 since 2007).
  • Texans are 6-2 ATS as underdogs of 6+ since 2008.
  • Eagles are 30-21 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Eagles are 13-22 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -8.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 33 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Eagles 38, Texans 17
    Eagles -8 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 52 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Survivor Pick (11-1)
    Eagles 34, Texans 24

    Eagles-Texans Game Recap



    New Orleans Saints (8-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
    Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Saints -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Saints -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    Week 12 Recap: I just had my best week of the year. My overall picks were 9-7, but my multi-unit selections were 7-1, which is why I won $1,840. My only big loss was the Packers +2, who failed to cover by one point because they kept screwing up in 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 situations. I'm pretty confident that Green Bay was the right side; but the right side doesn't always win.

    As in Weeks 9-11, I received one piece of hate mail. I'll post that later.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Given the amount of injuries the Bengals have in their secondary - stud corner Johnathan Joseph and free safety Chris Crocker are both out - I was surprised to see the Jets struggle to put up points on Thanksgiving. Mark Sanchez was just erratic; his passes were sailing everywhere, and he could have easily tossed three interceptions.

    Drew Brees won't have that problem. He's on fire right now. Brees posted 17 quick points against the Cowboys, but took his foot off the gas once he established a huge lead (that, and Reggie Bush's fumbles caused the Saints to bog down). But Brees put together an impressive winning drive at the very end when it mattered most.

    The Bengals will be lucky to force the Saints into more than two punts. As if their secondary problems weren't enough, they can't get any pressure on the quarterback; they're dead last in the NFL with 11 sacks.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Carson Palmer was dreadful on Thanksgiving, but that's just how he's been playing all year. It's sad, but he's lost all of his arm strength because of the multitude of surgeries and injuries he's had over his career.

    The Saints have the No. 6 pass defense in terms of YPA. They're not as good as the Jets, but they have solid corners who will challenge Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. As if Palmer could get the ball to them anyway.

    Cedric Benson won't be able to get anything on the ground. New Orleans is also in the top 10 against the run (7th in YPC), so Palmer will be in constant long-yardage situations.

    RECAP: The Saints are heating up, while the Bengals are playing dreadfully. This should be an easy blowout.

    There are no situational angles here, so I'm keeping this at one unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    No one wants any part of Cincinnati.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 85% (127,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 49-36 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 23-15 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Drew Brees is 16-11 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Bengals are 9-5 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Saints -7.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Snow showers, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Bengals 10
    Saints -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 45.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Saints 34, Bengals 30





    Chicago Bears (8-3) at Detroit Lions (2-9)
    Line: Bears by 4.5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bears -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Bears -6.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bears.

    Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks took a huge loss two weeks ago, as they seemingly wanted to give some money back to the bettors for Black Friday.

    Vegas recouped some of its losses in Week 12; five of the nine highly bet teams failed to cover, as the books made their money with the Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars, Dolphins and Bears. The public won with the Patriots, Vikings, Chiefs and 49ers.

    It's worth noting though that the number of bets were down in Week 12. Degenerate gamblers like myself were obviously spending our money buying presents.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Everyone on ESPN loves the Bears right now. They beat the Eagles in an impressive fashion. Per the national media, Chicago is the best team in the NFL.

    I'm not buying this. Jay Cutler is way too erratic to be trusted. The offensive line is garbage. Mike Martz is still a lunatic. This whole thing could blow up any week - including this Sunday.

    The Lions have major holes on defense, but their defensive line can put insane amounts of pressure on the quarterback. The Bears have surrendered a league-leading 40 sacks this year, so if Cutler is constantly getting pressured, he could force the issue and commit numerous turnovers.

    Martz absolutely must run the ball as much as possible. The Lions still suck at defending the rush (28th), so Chicago should use the same game plan it employed last week against the Eagles.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Fortunately for Cutler, he may not have to throw all that much because the Lions will have trouble putting up points themselves. Matthew Stafford has been out for a while, while Jahvid Best could be very limited if he even plays.

    Call me crazy, but I don't see Shaun Hill and Maurice Morris lighting up the scoreboard against a Bears defense that is eighth against the run and first versus the pass. Oh, and Chicago also has 10 sacks in its past two games.

    RECAP: The Bears just beat a tough Eagles team as an underdog. Now they're favored on the road. One would think that this would be a tough spot for them, but Lovie Smith is actually 6-3 against the spread when favored after a victory as an underdog; 4-0 if that next game is on the road.

    Having said that, I can't recommend a big play on Chicago because this Cutler-Martz combination cannot be trusted.

    UPDATE: Shaun Hill is out. I still feel the same way about this game with Drew Stanton.


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Lions were just humiliated on national TV.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Considering how horrible Detroit was on Thanksgiving, this is not a surprise.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 85% (118,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Bears have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Lovie Smith is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite after a win as an underdog.
  • Bears are 8-26 ATS in December road games the previous 34 instances.
  • Jay Cutler is 21-40 ATS.
  • Jay Cutler is 8-21 ATS as a favorite.
  • Lions are 10-3 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Lions 10
    Bears -4.5 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bears 24, Lions 20





    San Francisco 49ers (4-7) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)
    Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Packers -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Packers -9.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    As I indicated earlier, I received one piece of hate mail this week - but it wasn't from the bacon-loving, Everquest-playing guy I've been making fun of.

    Before I get to my hate mail, I'd like to show you a hilarious e-mail that Joe B. sent me on Thanksgiving. Joe B. took my making fun of the hate-mailer to another level, South Park style.

    At any rate, here was the exchange I had with an e-mailer named Chris:

    Chris (before the games): Would you still take the Titans at +3.5?

    Me: Yes, I would.

    Chris (after the games): Good take, and good take on the Packers too man.

    Me: Congrats on winning with the Jaguars and Panthers. Titans were zero units, so not really a "take."

    Chris: No, just a retarded call. I did win on the Jags and Panthers but you do tank your share of 5-unit and higher picks. Just saying.

    I told him not to e-mail me again if he was going to provide completely false information. My high-unit picks have been great this year, which is why I'm up more than $6,000 (as shown above). My problem has been getting the smaller-unit picks wrong, which isn't really a big issue. If I can't figure out a game, it's only natural that I'll get it wrong, right?

    I usually don't care about getting hate mail, but Chris really pissed me off because I took the time to answer his e-mail on a Sunday morning, which is usually a hectic time of the week for me. he asked my advice on Sunday morning, which is usually hectic for me. I answered his question about a game I couldn't figure out - I even wrote "I just don't know how the [Titans are] going to respond in the wake of the Jeff Fisher-Vince Young feud" - yet he had the audacity to not only send me hate mail; but to accuse me of something completely untrue.

    If Chris thinks I get my 5-unit picks wrong, he must also assume other incorrect things about me. These may include:

  • I think everyone on ESPN and NFL Network, especially Matt Millen, is a genius.

  • I love Michael Vick and want to have his babies.

  • I do not have a gambling problem.

  • I hate eating cheeseburgers, pizza and cheesesteaks.

  • I enjoy being slobbered over by the fat women at my gym pool.

  • I am a lesbian. And I do think there's something very wrong with that.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers looked pretty good at Arizona on Monday night. The offensive front threw the Cardinals' defensive line around, opening up huge holes for Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook.

    That, however, won't work so well against the Packers. While the Cardinals are 29th versus the rush in terms of YPC, the Packers are 10th. They haven't been as good against the run since their bye, but they don't have to respect the pass as much as they did while playing the Falcons and Vikings.

    Troy Smith didn't have to do much on Monday night, but he will have to come up with some big throws in this contest. Green Bay won't make things easy; they are fifth versus the pass.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers play well against the run (3rd), but not so much versus the pass (18th) because of their inability to get to the quarterback consistently.

    As you can tell, this isn't a good matchup for them because the Packers can only move the chains aerially. Aaron Rodgers will have plenty of time in the pocket to torch a San Francisco secondary that has given up its fair share of big plays this year.

    What Green Bay absolutely needs to do is convert in the red zone. They struggled to do so at Atlanta, failing on a pair of 3rd-and-1 situations in the first half. If the Packers settle for threes, San Francisco will have a chance to pull the upset.

    RECAP: The 49ers are my first big play of Week 13. There are several reasons why I love them:

    1. San Francisco is coming off a blowout win on Monday night. Teams off a victory of 17-plus points on Monday Night Football are 37-21 against the spread the following week since 2000.

    2. The Packers are favored by 10 off a loss. Teams laying double digits following a defeat are 34-62 against the spread since 2002. If a team's not playing well, why should they be laying 10 or more?

    3. Underdogs in their second-consecutive road game usually cover at a high rate. Mike Singletary is 3-0 against the spread in this dynamic, including 1-0 this year (covered at Atlanta.)

    LOCKED IN: As of Tuesday afternoon, some books have this spread at -9.5. Some are showing -10 (like sportsbook.com). Lock 49ers +10 in; I don't like this play as much (3 units) at +9.5.

    LINE CHANGE: I've gotten a lot of e-mails from people who only have +9.5 or +9, as this spread wasn't +10 for very long. I'd take the 49ers for three units if that's the case.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The Packers could have a slight letdown after that loss to Atlanta.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    As you might expect, there's a ton of money on the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (134,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Monday Night Magic: Teams coming off a win of 17+ points on MNF are 37-21 ATS the following week.
  • Packers are 14-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -10.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 25 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Packers 20, 49ers 17
    49ers +9.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Packers 34, 49ers 16





    Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-6)
    Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jaguars -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Jaguars -3 (Rusty) or Titans -3 (Collins).
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Titans.

    Some random NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. In my NFL Power Rankings page, I posted the following e-mail from Jeremy D: You are 100% correct - Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen are horrible. It's even worse in a 7-3 game... There's nothing to talk about.

    I would rather watch my mother take a shower for 3+ hours than listen to these blowholes. And believe me, my mother is a fat pig... wouldn't be nice.


    E-mailer Lou agreed:

    Speaking of the retarded commentators on the NFL Network, during the Dolphins-Bears game last week, Theismann called Tyler Thigpen, "Dan Henne." A) Wrong QB. Henne's not even out there. B) His name is not Dan. They have no clue.

    I can only wonder how Millen has managed to stay employed so long at his various jobs (Lions, ESPN, NFL Network, etc.) He must have an album full of pictures of his bosses wearing women's clothes or something.

    2. How unintentionally funny was that Monday night game with the incompetent Cardinals embarrassing themselves? If Derek Anderson's drunken post-game tirade wasn't enough, Arizona became the first team to throw two interceptions on one play.

    Check out the following NFL.com GameCenter play (thanks to Stewart G.) for this:

    1-10-SF 40(1:50) D.Anderson pass short right intended for E.Doucet INTERCEPTED by T.Spikes at SF 35. T.Spikes to ARZ 45 for 20 yards. Lateral to N.Clements to SF 40 for -15 yards (T.Hightower). M.Ware pass INTERCEPTED by T.Spikes at SF 35. T.Spikes to SF 35 for no gain (E.Doucet). PENALTY on ARZ-J.Bridges, Unnecessary Roughness, 59 yards, enforced at SF 35. PENALTY on ARZ-J.Bridges, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Arizona challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #2 at 01:31.)

    3. As usual, I'll have a 2011 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday. A 2012 NFL Mock Draft update may also be posted if I have the time (if not this week, then next week).

    One of the players who will be selected highly in either the 2011 or 2012 NFL Draft will be Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. E-mailer Kim R. sent over this hilarious picture of Mel Kiper and Todd "The Sun Tan Man" McShay debating about Luck in a Jimmy Clausen-esque fashion:

    Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Andrew Luck

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If Derek Anderson's drunk, then Rusty Smith must be on LSD because his performance against the Texans was one of the worst I've ever seen out of an NFL quarterback. And we've had some bad ones over the years.

    Fortunately for the Titans, reports indicate that Kerry Collins will start this contest, even though there's no spread as of Tuesday afternoon. Collins played very well against the Jaguars in relief of an injured Vince Young several Monday nights ago, going 11-of-16 for 110 yards and a touchdown.

    It was Chris Johnson who stole the show, however. Johnson and the Titans rushed for 154 yards in that Week 6 blowout victory. With Randy Moss serving as a downfield decoy, Johnson could have even more success against Jacksonville's 23rd-ranked ground defense.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars were dreadful in that horrifying loss. They mustered just 60 rushing yards, while David Garrard went just 7-of-12 for 49 yards and an interception before leaving with a concussion.

    The Titans still have a very good defense ranked 11th and 13th against the run and the pass, respectively, but the Jaguars are playing much better football right now. Garrard is running around and making plays, while utilizing Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis more often. I expect a much better effort out of Jacksonville this time around.

    RECAP: Once the lazy Vegas sportsbooks realize that Collins is starting, they'll post a line - probably around Tennessee -3. If I'm right, I'm taking the Jaguars.

    Check back later for a more detailed recap and an exact unit amount.

    LINE CHANGE: I'm taking the Jaguars +3 for three units. Jack Del Rio is good in divisional revenge games, and Jacksonville is playing its second-consecutive game as a road underdog, which is typically a good betting angle. The Titans also get Kerry Collins back, so there might be a "relax" factor.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    The early money is on the Jaguars.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (78,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • History: Titans have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Jack Del Rio is 7-4 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.
  • Opening Line: Titans -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 35 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Jaguars 31, Titans 24
    Jaguars +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Jaguars 17, Titans 6





    Denver Broncos (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
    Line: Chiefs by 9. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Chiefs -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Chiefs -9.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    Some random college football notes:

    1. After all the exciting college football games on Black Friday, one of the losers on SportsCenter said, "What a great day for college football."

    I couldn't disagree more. With Oregon and Auburn holding serve, and Boise State going down, we're now further away from a playoff system than ever before. The only way we'll ever get a playoff is if a couple of mid-majors crash the national championship, forcing the greedy college presidents to make the change we've all wanted for a very long time.

    Of course, a mid-major will never go to the championship anyway. I took Oregon -18.5 over Arizona because, "Oregon is better than Arizona. That's obvious. The Ducks will also get help from the officials, who will likely be told to make sure that Oregon wins no matter what to keep Boise State and TCU out of the fake national championship."

    Naturally, there was tons of shady officiating in both games. I was so fed up with it that at one point, I tweeted (@walterfootball) the following, mimicking the paid-off refs, "We need Oregon to win this game, illegal football play on Arizona. 15-yard penalty. First down, Oregon."

    2. If you're reading this and thinking, "What about that penalty on Nick Fairley!?" Congratulations! The officials have duped you into thinking they were evenly balanced because they called one poor penalty on the undefeated teams.

    Quite honestly, I hope the refs threw the flag on Fairley to make things seem even because if this was a legitimate call, college football really blows. If you don't know what I'm talking about, Fairley, a defensive tackle on Auburn, sacked Alabama's quarterback on third down. Fairley jumped up and down, and hugged his teammates in celebration. The officials, witnessing this, threw a flag on Fairley and penalized him for "excessive celebration."

    Actually, now that I think about it, the penalty does make sense. Why would you celebrate getting a big stop on third down in college football? There is no playoff system or legitimate championship in college football, so why would any player be happy about anything that happens?

    3. Sticking with the conspiracy theory theme, I have to wonder if Boise State's kicker was paid off to blow those chip-shot field goals at the end of the Nevada game. That may sound ridiculous, but you have to remember that the NCAA is a corrupt cartel that will do anything to achieve an ideal scenario to make as much money as possible.

    Of course, there's always the possibility that Boise State's kicker is just a choking dog. After the two botched field goals, I posted the following in our live in-games thread on the forum:

    If a drunk, angry Boise St. fan sees A) Osama bin Laden B) Hannibal Lechter C) The choking kicker, which do you think would they beat up?

    Forum member VikingSteve26 responded, "Osama... the kicker already choked to death."

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are studs. They're doing a great job carrying the mediocre Matt Cassel and the rest of Kansas City's offense. And Charles is finally getting more touches than Thomas Jones. It's a miracle!

    However, the last time the Chiefs played the Broncos, Denver limited Charles and Jones to just 48 yards on 20 carries. The Broncos also shut down Steven Jackson last week, limiting the Rams' ground attack to only 76 yards on 31 attempts.

    Denver's defensive liability is against the pass; the secondary is a joke and the pass rush is non-existent (16 sacks on the year). But that's why the Broncos match up so well against the Chiefs; Cassel needs a solid ground attack to move the chains consistently. Kansas City is 6-1 when it has gained more than 4.3 YPC or better, but only 1-3 when that figure is 4.2 or worse.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Like the Broncos, the Chiefs aren't very good at defending the pass. They've surrendered at least 222 passing yards in every game this year, including 280-plus the past three weeks.

    Kyle Orton is enjoying a breakout season for Denver. As Steve Young said two Monday nights ago, Orton can be very effective if he has time in the pocket. Kansas City has just four sacks in its previous three games.

    The Broncos could also have success moving the chains on the ground. The last time these two teams met, Denver compiled 132 rushing yards on 26 carries. The Chiefs are just 14th versus the run.

    RECAP: This spread is way too high for a mediocre quarterback like Cassel. I just don't trust Kansas City's offense enough to win by 10 or more. It could happen, but I'd much rather take the points.

    Besides, even if Denver's down, Orton is more than capable of throwing a backdoor touchdown.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Tons of early money on the Chiefs, but it's evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 52% (97,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Broncos are 2-16 SU in December games at Arrowhead.
  • Chiefs are 10-18 ATS at home since 2007 (4-1 in 2010).
  • Chiefs are 2-8 ATS as favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -7.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 24 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 24
    Broncos +9 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 10, Broncos 6



    Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (6-5)
    Line: Dolphins by 5.5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Dolphins -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Dolphins -4.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.

    My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I'm going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment.

    I have some sad news to report. As you may know from reading these the past two weeks, I received e-mails from a woman claiming to be named Miss Kindness. Pretending to be black-ops mercenary named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, I comforted her. Unfortunately, Miss Kindness didn't respond to my last e-mail. I guess she didn't like the fact that I don't have a bank account since, you know, Mister Compassion Chuck Norris robs banks for a living.

    So, here's a spam e-mail from someone else:

    walterfootball been forever well lol sup walterfootball omg we have to catch up I have been meaning to tell you about something ive been making insane money finally I have a way to support my family you shouldnt wait to jump into it ASAP

    Like OMG sup like OMG this sounds completely legitimate! All this guy needs is my credit card information and social security number. I figure I'll give that to him, and I'll be a millionaire in no time. Oh, if only I had gotten this before my 10-year high school reunion on Saturday night; I could have bragged to everyone about this!

    By the way, stay tuned for Jerks of the High School Reunion, coming next week.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Thank you, Jake Delhomme, for those glorious interceptions. The Browns were well in control last week, but Delhomme saved my Panthers +10 play with two horrible picks, including one that went back for a touchdown.

    It's really a shame that Colt McCoy suffered a sprained ankle because Cleveland really looked like it was gaining momentum. Delhomme stinks, and will undoubtedly commit more turnovers in this contest.

    The Browns will move the chains during Delhomme's error-free drives, however. Peyton Hillis is a monster and has proven that he can run the ball on any defense.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: Aside from one ugly interception, Chad Henne played great at Oakland last week, especially considering that he didn't have Brandon Marshall at his disposal. Marshall once again is unlikely to play.

    It's always difficult to predict what the Dolphins will do on offense because offensive coordinator Dan Henning is clueless and his quarterback is erratic. At times, Henne will look brilliant. But just when you think he has turned the corner, he'll lob an ugly pass right into a defender's arms. He's almost like Delhomme - only with a superior arm and no kidnapped son.

    As usual, expect some ineffective Wildcat action from the Dolphins and a chorus of boos once these plays result in a minimal gain.

    RECAP: Remember that Lovie Smith trend I mentioned earlier? The one where Smith was successful as a favorite after winning as an underdog? Tony Sparano is the complete opposite. He's 0-5 against the spread in this situation.

    So, am I taking the Browns for a multi-unit play? Hell no. Delhomme has a kidnapped son he has to rescue.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 52% (85,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Dolphins are 0-6 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more under Tony Sparano.
  • Tony Sparano is 0-5 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 75 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Dolphins 26, Browns 24
    Browns +5.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Browns 13, Dolphins 10



    Buffalo Bills (2-9) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
    Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Vikings -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Vikings -9.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.

    The Video of the Week: Three videos this time, all of epic video game mash-ups.

    1. M. Bison dominates World 1-1 of Super Mario Bros.

    2. Sonic makes Pac-Man look easy.

    3. Scorpion destroys all in Donkey Kong.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Poor Bills. They could have beaten the Steelers three separate times in overtime. The Steve Johnson drop hurt the most. It was a perfect throw and the ball fell right into his arms. God, why did you shackle Johnson with such horrible hands? He worships you 24-7!

    The fact remains though that Buffalo has done a great job offensively in recent weeks. The Vikings have issues with their secondary and pass rush, so Ryan Fitzpatrick should be able to score some points.

    Don't expect much from Fred Jackson, however. Jackson has been hot lately, but the Vikings are fourth against the run. Last week, the Redskins mustered just 16 yards on nine carries against Minnesota. Jackson will have to do his damage as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: One stud running back just suffered a season-ending injury. Unlike Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson was much luckier. Peterson's malady may not keep him out of any action. His MRI revealed that he sprained his ankle. He could be a game-time decision.

    Regardless of whether Peterson or Toby Gerhart starts, the Vikings will be able to run the ball against Buffalo's 27th-ranked ground defense. Rashard Mendenhall terrorized the Bills for 188 yards on 44 attempts, so Peterson and/or Gerhart will pick up where he left off.

    Buffalo also struggles to defend aerial attacks (20th in YPA) because of a non-existent pass rush that has just five sacks in the past four games. The Bills were able to get to Ben Roethlisberger twice, but both of Big Ben's tackles are missing so that's understandable.

    RECAP: I don't know how the Bills can possibly recover from their loss to the Steelers. That was such a heartbreaking defeat, so getting up for a 4-7 Minnesota team will prove to be a huge challenge.

    I'm taking the Vikings for a pair of units. I think they might be able to mimic Dallas' success with their own interim head coach.


    The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
    The Bills just lost a heart-breaker to the Steelers. It'll be tough for them to get up for the Vikings.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 57% (99,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 17-9 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Bills 13
    Vikings -4.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Vikings 38, Bills 14



    Washington Redskins (5-6) at New York Giants (7-4)
    Line: Giants by 7. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12): Giants -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12): Giants -7.
    Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    Once again, I'm now in the same fantasy football league as Bo-Bo. If you don't know who Bo-Bo is, he's quite possibly the worst fantasy player in the history of the universe. Here was the team he drafted last year:

    QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis; WR3: Joey Galloway; TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick).

    Bo-Bo avoided an epic 0-13 season last week with an improbable victory. Check out what happened this week:

    The worst fantasy football player ever

    Bo-Bo is on fire! In fact, I think it's safe to say that he's the hottest fantasy owner in the entire world! He doesn't even need three active receivers to win anymore. One can only wonder if Bo-Bo can go 13-0 next season.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: More like the "Washington Bleh." This offense is so bland. It has no playmakers outside of an aging Santana Moss, and the running game can't do anything. Sixteen rushing yards on nine carries against the Vikings last week? Bleh indeed.

    The Redskins have major pass protection issues - they've surrendered 15 sacks in their previous four games - which is not a good thing when you're playing the Giants. New York is tied for second in the NFL with 32 sacks.

    Washington will have to find a way to keep New York's pass rush honest. Their performance against the Redskins is discouraging, but the Giants aren't particularly good at defending the run; they're 18th against it in terms of YPC, having surrendered 166 yards on the ground last week to the Jaguars.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Talk about "bleh" - with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out of the lineup, all Eli Manning has at his disposal is Mario Manningham, who can't run a route to save his life, Derek Hagan and Michael Clayton. It's almost a miracle that Manning was able to mount a comeback against the Jaguars.

    Then again, it was Jacksonville - the NFL's last-ranked pass defense. The Redskins are 21st in terms of YPA, so Manning could have some success Sunday with his scrub receivers.

    The Giants will gain most of their yardage on the ground. Washington is even worse versus the run than the pass, ranking 30th in terms of YPC. The Redskins have allowed their previous four opponents to gain at least 99 rushing yards. Of course, all of this won't matter if Ahmad Bradshaw can't hold on to the football.

    RECAP: I can't really figure this game out. Nothing would really surprise me. With a gun to my head, I'd take the Redskins; the Giants' offense is missing so many players that covering seven points could be pretty difficult.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Lots of action on the Giants.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 78% (137,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • History: Giants have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Donovan McNabb is 27-14 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Giants are 16-23 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 38 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.


    Week 13 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Redskins 23
    Redskins +7 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Giants 31, Redskins 7



    Week 13 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Raiders at Chargers, Panthers at Seahawks, Rams at Cardinals, Cowboys at Colts, Falcons at Buccaneers, Steelers at Ravens, Jets at Patriots


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks - Late Games



    Fantasy Football Rankings - Aug. 22


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - July 23


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Preseason 2014): 3-5 (-$270)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 2-2 (-$40)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 0-0 ($0)
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    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-0, 0% ($0)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
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    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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