NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)

NFL Picks (2010): 80-73-6 (+$4,825)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 22, 4:20 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-5)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Falcons -4.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

I’ve also gotten a lot of requests for this, so you can now see every NFL team’s spread record this year, as well as the opposition’s winning percentage and ATS margin.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Before we anoint the Falcons as the best team in the league, I’d like to see them win a tough, outdoor game on the road. This doesn’t really count because it’s against the Rams and it’s in a dome, but Atlanta still may have trouble moving the football.

St. Louis is ranked 21st versus the rush, so that may indicate that Michael Turner will be able to move the chains on the ground. However, if you look at how the Rams have played the run since Week 4, they’re giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, which would be good for No. 10 in the NFL.

Ryan will have to do it all himself, which is easier said than done because St. Louis leads the league in sacks with 28. Troy Smith was able to torch the Rams’ secondary last week for 356 yards on just 28 throws, but I’d like to chalk that up as a fluke because the Rams have been very good against the pass all year.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Falcons won’t be the only team struggling to run the ball. Steven Jackson is one of the top backs in the NFL, but he’ll have major issues against an Atlanta front that hasn’t allowed more than four yards per carry to any opponent since Week 2.

Jackson will have to be a factor in the passing game, however, as Sam Bradford doesn’t really have any reliable receivers to throw to outside of Danny Amendola. This has to be a sigh of relief for the Falcons, who rank 30th against the pass in terms of YPA.

RECAP: The Rams can’t win on the road yet, but they do a great job at home. Excluding the opener (Bradford’s first start), they are 4-0 as hosts, beating the Chargers, Redskins and 5-4 Seahawks.

The Falcons are better than anyone St. Louis has battled this year – at least on paper. Atlanta may not be entirely focused for this contest because they have two tough games against the Packers and Buccaneers after this matchup against the “mediocre” Rams.

I like St. Louis to pull the upset here.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

After a hard-fought victory over the Ravens, the Falcons have this “easy” game before battling Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

All Atlanta has to do is beat the Rams by a field goal or more? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 87% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sam Bradford is 4-1 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Falcons 17
Rams +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 34, Rams 17

Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Line: Saints by 11.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -11.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -10.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

If you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 72 entries remaining out of 1,972.

You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database.

We’ll have our 2011 NFL Mock Draft contest available as soon as the regular season is over, so that’ll be another opportunity for you to win money. Stay tuned.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Reggie Bush should be back. Pierre Thomas might return. And the Saints just had a week off. Have they finally fixed their issues in the red zone? We’ll find out this week.

Having Bush and Thomas in the lineup is important for the Saints because of all the injuries the Seahawks have sustained up front. Red Bryant and Colin Cole are out, and excluding last week, Seattle hasn’t been able to stop the run at all since losing those two massive linemen.

New Orleans’ ability to run the ball will open things up even more for Drew Brees, who will have the luxury of torching the NFL’s 25th-ranked secondary. Keeping Brees in manageable down-and-distance situations is important because the Seahawks have 26 sacks on the year.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks struggled to score for a couple of weeks (10 combined points against the Raiders and Giants), but things are back to normal now. The difference? Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Williams are both healthy again.

Hasselbeck isn’t what he used to be, but he can still do a solid job, particularly when throwing to the impressive Williams, who is trying hard for the first time in his professional career. Despite the Saints’ No. 2 ranking against the pass, I’m not sure how their short corners will be able to contain Williams.

If having Hasselbeck and Williams healthy wasn’t good enough, Seattle could have left tackle Russell Okung back in the lineup. Okung has been cleared to practice, and Pete Carroll said Okung’s availability will depend on how well he moves in practice. Okung’s presence will be instrumental if the Seahawks plan on knocking off the Saints as massive underdogs.

RECAP: The Seahawks are my fifth and final big play of the week (though I have two medium-sized picks yet to be posted).

Here’s why I love Seattle:

1. This line is just way too big, as people can’t get that ugly Giants loss out of their head. Charlie Whitehurst started that game and Mike Williams wasn’t healthy, so that contest doesn’t mean anything as far as I’m concerned. The Seahawks are a solid team.

2. It’s really surprising, but the Saints suck as massive favorites. Under Sean Payton, they’re 2-9 against the spread laying double digits.

3. Speaking of double digits, here’s a great system that makes a lot of sense: Underdogs of +10.5 or more are 34-11 against the spread coming off a road upset. The reasoning: If a team wins as an underdog on the road and is once again getting tons of points, that usually means that both the oddsmakers and the public are undervaluing them.

4. The Seahawks are playing in their second-consecutive road tilt. Underdogs in this situation cover about 60 percent of the time.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 59% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 12-26 ATS on the road since 2006.

Saints are 29-47 ATS at home since 2001 (12-11 since 2008).

Saints are 22-36 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Saints are 2-9 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Opening Line: Saints -12.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 23, Seahawks 17
Seahawks +11.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 34, Seahawks 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Buccaneers -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): 49ers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 15, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Swipe Card Woman. 2) Angry Hockey Man. 3) Homeless Clown Woman.

Also, in this week’s edition of Emmitt on the Brink, one player makes a cameo appearance on Tim Tebow’s new show Encourage, which is a direct rip of HBO’s Entourage.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I was really impressed with Troy Smith last week. Smith displayed a great arm and hit his receivers downfield for four passes of 30 yards or more. He’s really breathing some life into this once-anemic offense.

Smith will pick up where he left off because the Buccaneers rank 22nd against the pass. Tampa’s secondary isn’t very good, but the real culprit is the pass rush; the team has seven sacks on the year, and only two if you exclude the Carolina games.

The Buccaneers are even worse against the run, ranking dead last against it. Even Mike Goodson looked half-decent last week. Frank Gore will have a big game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of running the football, LeGarrette Blount has been a stud since taking over for Cadillac Williams as the team’s starter. Blount jabbed his way for 91 rushing yards on only 19 carries against the woeful Panthers last week. However, Blount has his work cut out for him because the 49ers are third against the rush.

San Francisco is very weak against the pass however, and that’s definitely a liability Josh Freeman can exploit. Freeman has been tremendous recently. He doesn’t always post the prettiest numbers (though his TD-INT ratio in his last five games is 7-2), but he’s great at converting third downs and keeping drives alive. His dynamic scrambling ability definitely helps.

RECAP: Some may question why the 49ers are favored when the Buccaneers are clearly the better team. While I agree with the premise, I like San Francisco for two reasons:

First, Tampa Bay is 5-26 in its franchise history on the West Coast. They did win at Seattle last year, but that’s still a very dubious record.

More importantly, the Buccaneers battle the Ravens and Falcons after this “easy” game. They may not be focused against a San Francisco team that looks more energized with the former Heismann winner at quarterback.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Breather Alert for the Buccaneers. After this game against the “crappy” 49ers, they have to take on the Ravens and Falcons.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are favored over the Bucs? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 67% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Buccaneers are 15-22 ATS on the road after a win since 2002.

Buccaneers are 5-26 SU on the West Coast.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Showers, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Buccaneers 17
49ers -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 21, 49ers 0

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2)
Line: Patriots by 4. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -3.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them (the third from Kevin M.):

1. “S**TSBURGH SQUEELERS AND TOUCH LITTLE GIRLS ROETHLENSBURGER ARE GOING TO LOSE………………… AHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I JUST LOVE IT!!!!!”

You mean this is all I had to write for my November NFL Pick of the Month analysis? Why did I even bother with that 2,000-word write-up?

2. “im going talk trash look at how ravens going attack me”

This could possibly be the worst trash-talking of all time.

3. “the collie is sitting up in the locker room, but the bridge is still out”

I’ve spent days trying to figure out what this means. Is it a joke? Does this person think the Colts have a player named Bridge? And why is Austin Collie “the collie?”

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Just when you think Tom Brady has checked out after getting married and posing for magazine covers, he puts together one of the most impressive performances of his career. Brady completely torched the Steelers on Sunday night, going 30-of-43 for 350 yards and four touchdowns.

The Colts, however, have a different sort of defense that Brady won’t be able to exploit in the same fashion. They rank ninth against the pass in terms of YPA, and aside from Kyle Orton and Carson Palmer (junk-time yardage), no quarterback has thrown for more than 246 yards against them all year.

You beat Indianapolis on the ground, and the Patriots don’t have the horses to do that. I know BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a nice game on Sunday night, but New England isn’t going to win this game by pounding the Law Firm up the middle 25 times.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: What happened to all of Peyton Manning’s weapons? Didn’t he have the greatest collection of receivers ever at his disposal going into the season? Several injuries later, and all Manning had against the Bengals were Reggie Wayne and a couple of bums (Pierre Garcon, Jacob Tamme) who drop everything thrown to them.

Fortunately for Manning, he should have Austin Collie and Blair White back from their respective injuries.
The Patriots can be beaten with the pass; they’re 27th in terms of YPA, and they have just 13 sacks on the year if you exclude the win over Ben Roethlisberger and his skeleton-crew offensive line.

RECAP: I like the Colts for a medium-sized play for the simple fact that we’re getting Peyton Manning as an underdog. Manning is 13-3 against the spread getting points since 2003.

Also, Manning has owned this rivalry of late. He’s 4-1 against Brady dating back to 2005.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This game could determine homefield advantage in the AFC.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Everyone was back on the New England bandwagon early on.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (133,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 41-26 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 13-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Tom Brady is 115-38 as a starter (90-60 ATS).

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Clear, 36 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 30, Patriots 27
Colts +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 31, Colts 28

New York Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-3)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Eagles -7.

Sunday, Nov. 21, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “GO BACK TO SCHOOL U KNOW YOUR ON CPU N U SIT HERE N SPELL CHECK ALL YOUR WORDS RIGHT. HMM CAUSE U CARE HOW MUCH YOUR LITTLE 2 WORD POST OF DUMB BABBLE RIGHT IM SORRY I DON’T USE SPELL CHECK EVER SECOND ON THE NFL BLOG THAT’S NOT A JOB LMAO YOUR RIGHT. CAN U SAY\ TOOL WITH NO KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE GAME.”

This was a response from someone else on GameCenter to this guy’s post: “Wow you need to lean the English Language before you try to communicate with anyone on this website.”

2. “gone be a goo game monday night lol im tired of loosing”

A goo game EWWWWW!!!

3. “cowgirls stink ggirl makes no sence wow im sooo amaed good combak”

I hope you enjoyed reading one of the worst sentences ever written in the history of the English language.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Wow. Watching the Eagles-Redskins game, I found myself constantly thinking and shouting, “How the hell do you stop this offense?”

The Eagles have an unbelievable collection of playmakers – LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, Jason Avant (a solid slot receiver) – and now you add a dynamic dual-threat quarterback to the mix? After the game, Trent Dilfer said that Philadelphia’s victory put the rest of the league into “panic mode.” I couldn’t agree more with him.

The Giants have a great pass rush, so it’ll be interesting to see how they handle QB Dog Killer. The Eagles’ sole weakness on offense is the line, so if New York gets pressure on QB Dog Killer and keeps him in the pocket, they might have a chance. Even then, I don’t know if they’ll have much success defensively, as Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis couldn’t do anything against the Eagles two weeks ago.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The only solution to containing Philadelphia’s scoring attack could be maintaining a ball-control offense, and keeping QB Dog Killer and all of his weapons off the field.

With that in mind, the absence of Steve Smith could really hurt the Giants. Mario Manningham, who started in Smith’s spot last week, is very athletically gifted, but really sucks at route running. Thus, Eli Manning’s sole reliable downfield weapon is Hakeem Nicks, who will either be double-teamed or covered by Asante Samuel.

One interesting matchup that could determine Manning’s success is Trent Cole versus former Eagles tackle Shawn Andrews. Andrews, who has started on Manning’s blind side the past two weeks, really shined at Seattle, but struggled against the Cowboys. I’d give the edge to Cole.

The Giants won’t be able to run the ball very well. Excluding Monday night (the Redskins compiled some junk yardage at the end), no team has rushed for more than 75 yards against the Eagles since Week 4.

RECAP: I really disagree with this point spread. I thought it would be closer to a touchdown. Either the Monday night game was a mirage – I don’t think it was – or the oddsmakers are just slow to react to how good the Eagles are. Given how much money Vegas has made this football season, maybe this is an early Christmas present to all the bettors.

I just don’t see how the Giants are going to stop the Eagles. Maybe they can keep up, but that’ll be tough without Smith in the lineup.

This is only a one-unit pick, as there are offsetting situational angles in favor of both teams; the Giants are coming off a 25-point spread loss, while teams (Eagles in this case) usually have success after a Monday night blowout (see stat below).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is for control of the NFC East.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

The public is predictably pounding the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 77% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

History: Eagles have won the last 4 meetings.

Monday Night Magic: Teams coming off a win of 17+ points on MNF are 35-21 ATS the following week.

Giants are 27-12 ATS on the road since 2006.

Giants are 17-11 ATS after a loss since 2005.

Eagles are 67-43 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 38, Giants 27
Eagles -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 27, Giants 17 MISSING
MISSING

Denver Broncos (3-6) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Line: Chargers by 9. Total: 50.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Chargers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Chargers -10.
Monday, Nov. 22, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Diego, my favorite vacation spot. Tonight, the Chargers and Broncos play each other in a meaningless game. Guys, I don’t understand one thing. If the Broncos and Chargers both have losing records, why am I wasting my time broadcasting this game? There’s no reason these teams should be on instead of my Eagles.

Emmitt: Kenny, I will give you three reason why you need to have broadcastin’ of this game. The first reason is that you payin’ the bill with this job, and it your job to broadcastize this game. Secondly, the Charger a good team that have fallen on tough time. And threely, the Eagle just play last weekend on Monday Night Conference League. Some other teams deserve chance.

Reilly: Emmitt, no team deserves a chance over my Eagles. You have no idea how good my Eagles are. No one does. Not even the Eagles know how good the Eagles really are. Only me!

Herm: The Eagles know how good they are! They know! They’re aware! They recognize! They realize! They understand! They comprehend! But do you know how I know? No one knows how I know! No one thinks they know how I know! No one thinks that they think they know how I know! No one thinks that they think that they think that uhh… umm…

Reilly: Herm, one night when you’re sound asleep, I’m going to come into your bedroom and smother you with a pillow. Then we’ll see who knows that they think you know about what you think you know about what you think… uhh… crap, you screwed me up, you son of a b****.

Griese: The San Diego Chargers need to give the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson at least 25 times today. If they do that, they might have a chance to win this game.

Reilly: Thanks for that, captain obvious. The only three players I know in this game are Tomlinson, Philip Rivers because he’s on my fantasy team, and Tim Tebow. Speaking of which, how soon before Tebow starts, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Tim Tivo gonna start when he reach the rice of patches, and corch Josh McDonald give him the writing on the forehead.

Reilly: I sure hope Tebow starts soon. I have 10 Tebow action figures at home. I need three more to complete my ultimate Tim Tebow action hero set!

Griese: With Tim Tebow in at quarterback, the Florida Gators will destroy… umm… who are they playing? Some blue team? That must be Ole Miss. Tim Tebow will definitely beat… uhh… who is he playing again?

Reilly: Griese, you’re stupid. Tebow doesn’t play for Florida anymore. Florida traded him to Denver for a first-round pick. How stupid are the Gators? Wow!

Herm: Florida didn’t trade! They didn’t trade! They didn’t swap! They didn’t deal! They traded picks! I mean they didn’t trade picks! Florida has no picks! They’re in the NFL! No they’re not in the NFL! Never in the NFL! Never will be in the NFL! Never have a chance to be in the NFL! You know why!? I’ll tell you why! Here’s why! Here’s why they’re not in the NFL! It’s because… umm…

Reilly: Look, Herm, you might be the expert of talking like an idiot, but everyone in this booth knows that I’m the master of football, and when I say that Tebow was traded for a first-round pick, you just have to believe me. If you don’t believe me, I’ll choke you in your sleep! Ha! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Everyone will be back for the Chargers in the next two weeks. Vincent Jackson will return in Week 12. Malcom Floyd is practicing again and will play Monday. Antonio Gates’ status is in doubt for Week 11, but he’s almost certain to play the following weekend. And Ryan Mathews should also be back by Week 12.

Even if only Floyd returns for this contest, that’ll be more than enough for Philip Rivers, who scored 29 points at Houston throwing to the likes of Seyi Ajirotutu, Patrick Crayton and Randy McMichael. Yes, Houston’s defense is cabbage, but so is Denver’s. The Broncos are 28th against the pass (YPA) and have just 13 sacks on the year.

Denver is only slightly better versus the run (24th), so if Mathews misses this contest, Mike Tolbert should be just fine.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos won’t beat the Chargers by slowing Rivers down, so they’ll have to beat him in a shootout. Considering how well Kyle Orton has played for the most part this year, that’s definitely a possibility.

Orton, second to only Rivers in passing yardage this year, gets to battle a San Diego secondary that has surrendered 571 yards in its previous two outings.

Running the football won’t be as easy. The Broncos had some success in this department last week, but the Chargers are actually fifth versus the rush, limiting the opposition to 3.7 yards per carry all year.

RECAP: As noted below, this could be a tough spot for the Chargers. Sure, it’s Monday Night Football, but they have three tough, important games after this one. Denver is a divisional rival, so I’m not sure how focused San Diego will be.

I’m taking the Broncos; 10 points seems like a lot for a team that just won by 20. However, this is zero-unit selection. I’ve flip-flopped between taking the Broncos and Chargers several times, so I can’t really recommend betting either side.

By the way, if you’re wondering if a team has ever scored 49-plus points and then was a double-digit underdog the following week, the last time it happened was in 2002. The Panthers beat the Bengals, 52-31. The following Sunday, they lost at Pittsburgh, 30-14, as 10-point dogs. I spent 20 minutes researching this. Go me.

SURVIVOR PICK: I lost with the Giants in Survivor, but I’ll continue to give advice for those who are still alive.

The Chargers are my top choice. Here are my top six in order: San Diego, New Orleans, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the New York Jets. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
I’m not sure if the Chargers are going to look past the Broncos. On one hand, they have the Colts, 5-4 Raiders and 5-4 Chiefs after this game. On the other hand, Denver is a hated divisional rival, and San Diego just watched them lay 49 on Kansas City’s tough defense. I can’t make this call.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 52% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Chargers are 12-8 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Broncos 27
Broncos +9 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (9-1)
Chargers 35, Broncos 14

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bears at Dolphins, Bills at Bengals, Lions at Cowboys, Raiders at Steelers, Texans at Jets, Ravens at Panthers, Browns at Jaguars, Redskins at Titans, Cardinals at Chiefs, Packers at Vikings

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Bills +200 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline Underdog: Buccaneers +160 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$160

Moneyline Underdog: Colts +170 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Small Parlay: Dolphins -1, Bills +5.5, Texans +7, Cardinals +8, Seahawks +12, Broncos +10 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)