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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2010



NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)

NFL Picks (2010): 41-34-2 (+$3,000)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 11, 4:30 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games



Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Line: Bills by 2. Total: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bills -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Week 4 Recap: I went just 7-7 overall, but more importantly, I was 5-2 with my multi-unit picks, winning +$1,075. I'm happy with how my NFL picks have gone ever since an e-mailer pointed out that I was making the mistake of delving too much into matchups and not focusing enough on spot betting. For more on what spot betting means, check out my post regarding the 49ers-Falcons game. (Post No. 9).

As usual, my NFL Picks will be posted periodically throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball to receive updates for when I post each selection.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Might as well get the worst matchup of the weekend out of the way, right? The Bills' offense was epically pathetic against the Jets on Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed his first pass nine minutes into the second quarter, as he was 0-of-5 until then. The completion was for 1 yard. And Buffalo had only one first down until the final minute of the first half.

Having said that, the Jets and Jaguars defenses are two different animals. Jacksonville is a mediocre 18th versus the run and dead last against the pass.

We've seen Fitzpatrick move the chains against a pedestrian defense two weeks ago when the Bills played at New England. Jacksonville's stop unit is even worse, so I expect Buffalo to be able to put up a good amount of points in this contest.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, Buffalo has a piss-poor defense that ranks 28th against the run and 24th versus the pass. Remember when the Bills had a solid stop unit last year playing out of Perry Fewell's cover-2 scheme? Why they felt like they needed to switch to the 3-4 is beyond me.

Maurice Jones-Drew had his first strong outing of the year last week, and should be able to parlay that into solid performance at Buffalo. The Bills surrendered 262 rushing yards to the Jets on Sunday, so they don't really have much hope of stopping Jones-Drew.

With a solid ground attack, David Garrard will torch the Bills' banged-up secondary that is missing top corner Terrence McGee.

RECAP: I loved the Jaguars last week. They know the Colts well and were playing their Super Bowl. Instead of a trip to Disney World, however, Jacksonville is rewarded with a road game at gloomy Buffalo.

There is no way Jacksonville gives anywhere close to 100-percent effort in this contest. The Jaguars, who normally don't try hard against non-divisional foes, are just 1-7 against the spread as favorites after playing Indianapolis since the two teams joined the AFC South in 2002.

Jack Del Rio is the laziest coach on the laziest team in the NFL. The Jaguars won't show up, allowing the Bills to record their first, and perhaps only win of the year.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Jaguars just won their Super Bowl. Instead of going to Disney World, they earned a trip up to cold Buffalo!


The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
No one wants any part of the Bills. The public is also impressed with Jacksonville's upset win over Indianapolis.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 65% (101,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 22-8 ATS since 2000.
  • Jaguars are 1-7 ATS as favorites after playing the Colts since 2002. ???
  • Jaguars are 5-18 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Bills are 16-9 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Bills -1.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 24
    Bills -2 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jaguars 36, Bills 26



    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
    Line: Bengals by 6.5. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bengals -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Bengals -6.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    Vegas Recap: For the first time all year, Vegas had a losing weekend. Four highly bet teams covered (Jets, Texans, Chargers, Patriots), while only two teams were losers for the public (Bengals and Colts failing to beat the spread).

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Carson Palmer went 25-of-36 for 371 yards and two touchdowns at Cleveland, but he wasn't as good as those numbers indicate. He's still floating balls, demonstrating no arm strength, looking slow and failing to read the blitz. He also fumbled twice. His production was more of Terrell Owens (10 catches, 222 yards, TD) abusing Cleveland's secondary. In fact, Owens' long catch was the result of a defensive back falling down.

    Fortunately for Palmer, Tampa Bay's defensive backfield is an abomination as well. The Buccaneers are 28th against the pass and were most recently abused by Charlie Batch. Safety Tanard Jackson's suspension really hurt, as Batch burnt Tampa twice with long bombs to Mike Wallace.

    Palmer may not have to do much anyway. The Bucs are 31st against the run, so Cedric Benson could exceed the 100-yard rushing barrier for the first time all year.

    BUCCANEERS OFFENSE: We've seen the Bengals dominate opposing quarterbacks when they've been able to contain the run and get to the passer. Joe Flacco tossed four interceptions at Cincinnati in Week 2. The following Sunday, Jimmy Clausen couldn't do anything against the Bengals, albeit in his first start.

    I like Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow Jr., but the Buccaneers are weak in two areas on offense: running the ball and protecting the quarterback.

    Cadillac Williams doesn't have much left, and while LeGarrette Blount looked promising against Pittsburgh, there's no telling how much Raheem Morris will use the latter. Meanwhile, Freeman has taken seven sacks in three games, which says a lot because he's a mobile quarterback. Freeman will have to do a lot of running around in what appears to be a great matchup for Cincinnati's defense.

    RECAP: One of my favorite trends applies here. If you look below, you'll see that favorites of -6.5 or more going into their bye are an amazing 35-8 against the spread since divisional realignment in 2002.

    This won't be a big play or anything because I'm not too overly confident laying 6.5 with such a poor offensive team. Let's make this two units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The public is still somehow impressed with the Bengals.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (100,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of -6.5 or more are 35-8 ATS going into their bye since 2002. ???
  • Bengals are 6-17 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Bengals are 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Buccaneers 10
    Bengals -6.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 38.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Buccaneers 24, Bengals 21





    Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-3)
    Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Falcons -5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Falcons -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Falcons.

    Some random NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Radio host Big Daddy Graham on 610 WIP (Philly sports talk) brought up a great point on Sunday night. He criticized Jason Avant for pointing toward the sky after he made a 6-yard reception against the Redskins. Like really, you need to thank God after a measly 6-yard catch? And where was God when the ball slipped out of your hands on the Hail Mary attempt at the end of the game? Avant should have looked toward the ground and made a fist at Satan at that point.

    2. If you've never had a concussion before, take a look into the mindset of Jay Cutler on Sunday night. Cutler tweeted while he had a concussion, and he had some interesting things to say on his Twitter account.

    3. What's up with NBC's stupid halftime feature called the Tiny Football League? First of all, no one cares about this. Except maybe Brad Childress and various child molesters. And second, I'm uncomfortable listening to a guy call two little kids "smooth and sweet." Not that there's anything wrong with that - I guess.

    4. If you've noticed some new trends popping up, you can thank e-mailer/handicapper Mr. East. He has a football handicapping podcast you can listen to by clicking the link.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan isn't nearly as good outdoors as he is inside the Georgia Dome. So, does that mean the Falcons' offense will struggle at Cleveland? Nah.

    The Browns can't stop the pass. They made Carson Palmer look functional again. They're 29th against aerial attacks, having surrendered 633 passing yards in the previous two weeks. The only reason they're not worse than 29th because two of their games were against Josh Freeman and his broken thumb, and Matt Cassel.

    Cleveland is 13th versus the run, so don't expect a lot from Michael Turner. Ryan will shred the Browns' sorry secondary, so it won't even matter.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I liked what I saw out of Seneca Wallace the past three weeks. Is he a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL? No, but he's a good backup who won't kill a team if he has to make a couple of starts each year. He's done a great job managing the game for Cleveland.

    So, with that in mind, I don't know what the hell the Browns are thinking by going back to Jake Delhomme. Eric Mangina told the media that Delhomme will start barring any setbacks. This only means one thing: lots of turnovers!

    To prevent Delhomme from throwing another game to save his kidnapped son, the Browns will need to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible with Mike Alstott Peyton Hillis. However, there are two problems: Atlanta is good against the run (123 rushing yards allowed on 38 carries the last two games), and Cleveland could be behind early if Ryan lights up the Browns secondary.

    RECAP: This is only a slight lean, but I like the Falcons to cover the three points. If you have any reservations betting Atlanta in an outdoor game, note that Matt Ryan is 7-5 against the spread with no roof over his head.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    "All the Falcons need to do is beat the Browns by more than 3? Sign me up!"
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 84% (123,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Jake Delhomme is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in his career.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -3.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Browns 10
    Falcons -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Falcons 20, Browns 10





    St. Louis Rams (2-2) at Detroit Lions (0-4)
    Line: Lions by 3. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Lions -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Pick.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Rams.

    Good God, I hate ESPN's new NFL Primetime. In three consecutive clips during the Packers-Lions highlight reel, the score went from 28-23 to 21-14 to 28-26. Can you freaking do the highlights in chronological order for crying out loud? Is that too much to ask?

    If you haven't watched this God-forsaken show since Chris Berman and Tom Jackson stepped down, here's a rundown of what you're missing:

    TREY WINGO: I like to do the highlights out of order! Ha! Look at me! I say snazzy things and I'm awesome!

    MERRIL HOGE: Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back. Factor Back.

    TRENT DILFER: I'm. Going. To. Say. Something. Slowly. And. Articulately. So. I. Sound. Like. I. Know. What. I'm. Talking. About. But. I. Really. Have. No. F***ing. Clue.

    TREY WINGO: I'm Trey Wingo! Woowowwowowow! I say things that sound cool and I do the highlights out of order because I'm awesome!

    MERRIL HOGE: Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Back Back Back Back Back Back Back. Factor Back! Back Factor? Factor Back!

    TRENT DILFER: I. Hate. F***ing. Kickers. Only. They. Need. To. Be. Accountable. For. Their. Actions. Not. Anyone. Else. I. Want. To. F***ing. Kill. Every. Kicker. In. The. NFL. I. Will. Murder. All. Of. Them. And. Eat. Their. Remains.

    Dear ESPN: Can you please have Boomer and TJ do NFL Primetime again? Please!?

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I've been really impressed with Sam Bradford. I liked him as a quarterback come 2011 and beyond, but I did not think he could step in and perform this well right away. Granted, he has played the 30th-, 25th-, 13th- and 26th-ranked teams according to my 2010 NFL Power Rankings, but he's been great nonetheless.

    And besides, it's not like the Lions don't belong in that pantheon. They're currently ranked 29th and own an abysmal secondary, so Bradford should continue to perform at a high level.

    Bradford may not have to do much anyway. Unlike last week's matchup against a stiff Seattle rush defense, the Rams will be able to run the ball versus Detroit's 29th-ranked ground defense. Jackson, who continues to play well despite his numerous maladies, will have a big game.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: This should have been the battle of the past two No. 1 overall selections, but Matthew Stafford will miss yet another game. Shaun Hill has been relatively great in Stafford's absence, however. Hill has thrown for 903 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions in the past three weeks.

    The Rams present a somewhat tough matchup on paper for Hill; their pass rush has been tremendous, and they rank 14th versus the pass. However, four of the five quarterbacks St. Louis has battled this season Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Hasselbeck. Not exactly the 2010 NFL All-Pro Team.

    Hill isn't much better than those guys, but he has a myriad of weapons to help him move the chains. Calvin Johnson's the obvious player, but Jahvid Best should have a big game versus St. Louis' 25th-ranked ground defense.

    RECAP: The Lions have admirably played their hearts out despite missing Matthew Stafford. For four consecutive weeks, they've battled superior opponents to the wire despite not having Stafford under center. Jim Schwartz has really earned my respect for getting the most out of his team. It seems like Vegas and the gambling public have taken notice of this as well, making Detroit an evenly bet three-point favorite.

    Having said all that, this has blowout written all over it - in St. Louis' favor. The Lions have played too many heart-breaking losses as massive underdogs. They won't be able to get up for an "inferior" Rams squad as a home favorite. And it's not like a Hill-quarterbacked Detroit team deserves to be laying points anyway.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Lions just lost two very emotional games to divisional opponents. I don't know how they're going to get up for the Rams.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Close to equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (117,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 22-8 ATS since 2000.
  • Rams are 24-40 ATS in road games since 2001 (5-4 since 2009).
  • Lions are 1-7 ATS as favorites since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Lions -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Lions 10
    Rams +3 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Lions 44, Rams 6





    Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
    Line: Colts by 7.5. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Colts -11.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Colts -10.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Colts.

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Watching the Ole Miss-Kentucky game on Saturday afternoon, I was kind of pissed that the former no longer has its mascot. I don't understand why Ole Miss lost its mascot. I mean, how could an old racist slave owner be offensive to anyone? Who would possibly be angry about this?

    2. I quickly forgot about Ole Miss' mascot quandary upon hearing one of the idiot announcers. After the sideline reporter interviewed Dexter McCluster, the announcer incoherently shouted, "I tried to get Dexter McCluster on my fantasy team. Couldn't get him! Couldn't get him! Couldn't get him!"

    Really? You couldn't get Dexter McCluster on your fantasy team? He went undrafted in most of my leagues. What sort of league do you play in that it was impossible to get him? Did someone actually take McCluster with their first-round pick? If so, I'd like to steal money from your league members be a part of your fantasy league because it sounds like fun!

    3. This moron announcer (let's call him McCluster Man) wasn't done. Ole Miss had first-and-goal at Kentucky 1-yard line, but was whistled for a 5-yard penalty. McCluster Man remarked, "This is a good penalty for Ole Miss because now they have more room to work with."

    Attention all coaches, first-and-goal from the 6 is hereby better than first-and-goal from the 1! The guy who couldn't get Dexter McCluster on his fantasy team said this, so it must be true!

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I love how the national media is overreacting to the Colts' loss to the Jaguars. If Indianapolis doesn't commit two fluky turnovers in the red zone, the team's sitting pretty right now at 3-1.

    I fully expect Peyton Manning to silence his team's critics. Kansas City's defense has played well this season, ranking fifth against the run. However, the Chiefs are just 15th versus aerial attacks, as Eric Berry has really looked lost in coverage in his first three games.

    Maybe Berry improves over the bye week and bolsters the Chiefs' secondary, but does that even matter? There's no stopping Manning and all of his weapons.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It's no secret that the Colts can't stop the run. They've allowed at least 112 rushing yards in three of their four games (the exception being to Laurence Maroney and the Broncos), so Kansas City should be able to control the clock, and keep the ball away from Manning with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles (assuming Charles even touches the ball this week).

    The Chiefs will be able to move the chains, but if they want to pull this upset, they'll have to score touchdowns in the red zone; not settle for field goals. The Jaguars were able to do the former, and they won. Two weeks ago, the Broncos couldn't get into the end zone, and they lost.

    The problem with Kansas City is that Matt Cassel stinks. I just don't trust him to come through in big moments. He'll certainly be tested this Sunday.

    RECAP: I have the Chiefs seeded 21st in my 2010 NFL Power Rankings. So, if you're a Kansas City fan, you probably think I'm going to lay multiple units with the Colts.

    Actually, I'm leaning toward the Chiefs here for three reasons:

    1. This is the biggest game Kansas City has played in a very long time. In fact, the last time the Chiefs have participated in a contest of this magnitude was in January 2007, when they lost to Indianapolis in a first-round playoff battle. Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez were the main offensive cogs on their team, so that should indicate how long it's been.

    2. This is Kansas City's opportunity to prove that they're for real. How many times do you think they've heard, "Can you believe the Chiefs are 3-0?" from the national media during their bye week? This team is playing for respect.

    3. Gamblers seem to be inclined to take the Colts here because Peyton Manning is sure to rebound off a loss. However, this hasn't been a lucrative betting option in the past eight years. Since 2002, Indianapolis is just 1-5 against the spread as a favorite of -7 or more coming off a defeat.

    Having said all that, this is only a one-unit wager on the visitor. I think the Chiefs will cover, but I could easily see them playing their hearts out and losing by 10-14 points because of Cassel's ineptitude.

    SURVIVOR PICK: I like the Chiefs to cover, but I think the Colts are the best survivor pick this week. There aren't really any other lucrative options.

    I was asked to list six possible survivor options each week, so here they are, from best to worst: Colts, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, Texans and Jets. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    The Chiefs have to feel pretty disrespected; everyone, including myself, thinks they're a fraud 3-0.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    About two-thirds action on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 76% (151,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chiefs are 18-9 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 17-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
  • Colts are 1-5 ATS when favored by -7 or more after a loss since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Colts -9.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Retractable roof.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Chiefs 26
    Chiefs +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 45.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Survivor Pick (4-0)
    Colts 19, Chiefs 9





    Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
    Line: Packers by 3. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Packers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Packers -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I'm going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week's edition:

    elvisalex, Help me get connected on MHR, please. I signed up, but being the technologically challenged old guy, I can't figure out how to post anything. I agree with your take on Walter Football and wonder where they've taken their information from. I'd like to post and rec your article but, alas, my challenges exceed my ability to resolve them. Thanks for any help you can give me.

    Bill Nein


    This e-mail has haunted me for days. What is Elvisalex's take on Walter Football, and why does Bill Nein agree with it? What does Bill want to post? And what info are these guys talking about? Do they think I steal info from somewhere? And why does Bill have challenges? I have not been able to sleep because I've been wondering about these questions every night.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Try to ignore what happened last week. The Packers struggled to beat the Lions - as everyone has this year - because they were in a flat spot coming off a Monday night loss to the Bears. I expect a much better performance from them this Sunday, at least from the offense.

    Washington's secondary isn't very good. The team has allowed at least 235 passing yards in every game this season. That 235 figure belongs to Sam Bradford, and that was one week after Matt Schaub lit them up for 497.

    Despite not having much of a ground attack in this contest - Brandon Jackson stinks, Marshawn Lynch was not traded for, and the Redskins are 14th against the run - the Packers should be able to put plenty of points on the scoreboard, as Aaron Rodgers will have a great game throwing to his talented arsenal of weapons.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Green Bay's issues are on defense, particularly in the secondary. Rookie safety Morgan Burnett is out for the year, so the Packers are going to have issues at safety until Atari Bigby can return to the lineup in November.

    The Redskins won't be able to run the football as efficiently as they could last week - Green Bay is ninth versus the rush, allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs - but Donovan McNabb shouldn't have any problems moving the chains against a secondary that just allowed Shaun Hill to throw for 331 yards.

    In order to stop McNabb, the Packers will have to put a ton of pressure on him. The matchup between the NFL's sack leader Clay Matthews and right tackle Jammal Brown will be fun to watch.

    RECAP: This is going to be my first zero-unit wager of the week. I like the Redskins because of the Big Al Trend (see below), but then again, I expect a much better effort out of the superior Packers this Sunday.

    I'm picking Washington, but I've flip-flopped too many times in deciding this selection to recommend betting it.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    I'm shocked the public isn't all over the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (156,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Big Al Trend I: Since 1980, unrested home dogs are 114-71 ATS off a straight-up road win vs. team coming off home win.
  • Packers are 23-11 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.
  • Redskins are 7-19 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -1.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Redskins 23
    Redskins +3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 45.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 16, Packers 13



    Chicago Bears (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-4)
    Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 33.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Bears -3.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Bears.

    In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I'm also going to post a Video of the Week. Last week I posted two clips from two old-school game shows, Nick Arcade and Legends of the Hidden Temple. Here's one you may not be familiar with. It's an old British game show, and it's basically the cheesiest piece of crap ever put on TV. This is the second half of the review of Knightmare (the first half is kind of boring), so check it out to see how amazingly stupid some of these kids are. Thanks to Wraith for pointing this out to me.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: I don't get it. Why does everyone say that the Bears-Giants game was excruciating to watch? I found it highly amusing. I was praying for the Bears to get the ball as much as possible so the sack total could keep rising. I hoped the Giants could break the single-game record of 12, but they unfortunately fell short.

    The Giants simply matched up too well with the Bears. The downfall of Mike Martz's offense occurs whenever his teams play a defense capable of rushing the passer without blitzing. Eight of Jay Cutler's nine sacks took place when New York sent only its four linemen.

    Cutler is expected to play in this contest, which is why Vegas posted a line Tuesday morning. I'm not even sure if Cutler suffered a concussion on Sunday night, but that's irrelevant here; the fact of the matter is that Carolina is incapable of putting pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. The Panthers have just four sacks on the year, though Everette Brown had a solid game at New Orleans last week. Still, just one pass-rushing presence won't be enough.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: While one team gets its star player back from "injury," the other will be without its stud play-maker. Steve Smith suffered a high ankle sprain at New Orleans, and will be out until at least Week 7.

    I don't have to tell you that this isn't good for the Panthers. With Smith out, Jimmy Clausen's top receiving options are the unknown David Gettis, crappy David Clowney and drop-happy Brandon LaFell. As if playing Chicago's 12th-ranked pass defense amid poor pass protection wasn't enough.

    The Panthers will need to establish their ground attack if they want to keep Clausen from getting killed. The problem is that Carolina hasn't been able to run the ball effectively with right tackle Jeff Otah out with a knee injury. The Bears are 10th versus the rush anyway.

    RECAP: The Panthers shocked everyone by nearly knocking off the Saints in the Superdome. They gave it their all, but fell short in the final few seconds. I don't know how Carolina can possibly get up for the Bears, who looked pathetic on Sunday night.

    Chicago, meanwhile, may have something to prove to all of the naysayers who are now stating that their 3-0 start was a fluke. The Bears embarrassed themselves in front of a national audience and will be seeking redemption.

    JAY CUTLER UPDATE: Cutler has been ruled out with a concussion, and Todd Collins will start. I've moved this up from three to four units; with Cutler out, Chicago's defense knows it'll have to step up to win this game. I like the Bears now for the same reason I went five units with the Steelers over the Falcons in Week 1.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    The Panthers played their hearts out in New Orleans, but came up short. They won't be 100 percent for this matchup after seeing the Bears suck on national TV.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The public is starting to bet Carolina with Jay Cutler out.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 51% (88,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 22-8 ATS since 2000.
  • Panthers are 35-25 ATS as an underdog the previous 59 instances.
  • Panthers are 23-33 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Sunny, 80 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Panthers 10
    Bears +3 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 33.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bears 23, Panthers 6



    Denver Broncos (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
    Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Ravens -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Ravens -7.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.

    Once again, I'm now in the same fantasy football league as Bo-Bo. If you don't know who Bo-Bo is, he's quite possibly the worst fantasy player in the history of the universe. Here was the team he drafted last year:

    QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis; WR3: Joey Galloway; TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick).

    This is the matchup we've all been waiting for. My 4-0 team takes on Bo-Bo's pitiful 0-4 squad! Here's a screen shot of the matchup (I'm not sure why my team name is the Moscow Men; that's what my friend/neighbor Schmidty named the team. The only way I could get into this league was by partnering up with him since the league was full):

    The worst fantasy football player ever

    Can Bo-Bo pull the major upset? Will Bo-Bo finish 0-13 this year? And will Bo-Bo bench Brandon Marshall, who is on a bye? Find out next week!

    DENVER OFFENSE: Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for 5,676 yards this year, which would shatter Dan Marino's single-season record of 5,084. Simply amazing.

    I don't know what sort of animals Orton ate this offseason, but he looks like a completely different quarterback. Unfortunately, he has the unenviable task of going up against Baltimore's No. 1 aerial defense, which hasn't allowed more than 167 passing yards to anyone this year. If Orton is to make a run at Marino's record, he'll have to make it out of this contest without a dreadful stat line.

    The Ravens have shown some susceptibility to the run this year, ranking just 20th against it. So with that in mind, the Broncos have to be thrilled that Knowshon Moreno is finally healthy enough to play. Laurence Maroney is garbage and provided absolutely no threat coming out of the backfield. Moreno changes that, and will keep Baltimore's defense at least somewhat honest.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens didn't get much out of Ray Rice last week. Rice played hurt and battled a stout Pittsburgh stop unit. Rice will rebound here, as Denver is just 17th against the run, surrendering 4.2 yards per carry to backs.

    Keeping Rice in check will make life extremely difficult for Denver's defense. The Broncos can't put pressure on the quarterback (four sacks in four games), while Joe Flacco has done a great job rebounding off a horrific four-interception performance at Cincinnati.

    The Ravens, at least in theory, should be able to score at will against Denver.

    RECAP: I say "in theory" because this is a major letdown alert for the Ravens. They legitimately beat the Steelers for the first time in the John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco era. And as noted below, the last time Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh, the team barely showed up to a Monday night contest at Green Bay.

    The Ravens violate the Statfox Trend, which basically says to bet against home favorites coming off a road victory of 1-3 points in Weeks 2-10. This system is 49-21 against the spread since 2000, and 3-0 this year (the Falcons fell victim to it last week).

    I also think the Broncos are getting too many points. They're a pretty solid team; in the past three weeks, they've upset the Titans, blown out the Seahawks and played a close game against the Colts.

    Denver +7 is one of my two favorite plays this week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    The last time the Ravens beat the Steelers, they didn't show up to a Monday night game at Green Bay.


    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    Early action on the Ravens, but it has evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 64% (47,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 21-49 ATS since 2000 (Weeks 2-10 only).
  • Opening Line: Ravens -6.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Broncos 17
    Broncos +7.5 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 40 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 31, Broncos 17



    New York Giants (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1)
    Line: Texans by 3. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Texans -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Texans -6.
    Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Texans.

    If you've been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you're wondering which players to start, I've got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of fantasy, Gary Kubiak gave the double F-U to all fantasy football players this past Sunday by benching Arian Foster for the first quarter of the Raiders contest, and announcing Andre Johnson as a game-time decision when he knew Saturday night that Johnson wasn't going to play. Gary, you're a good coach, but you are a douche.

    Kubiak said Tuesday that Johnson is "feeling better." There's no way of knowing what that means, but there's a chance Johnson plays. Regardless, New York's secondary is still suspect, and I think Matt Schaub will have a solid game regardless of whether or not Johnson suits up.

    To beat the Texans, the Giants will have to put as much pressure on Schaub as possible. Houston doesn't have a broken pass protection scheme like the Bears do, but they've surrendered 11 sacks in four games. Schaub will have to throw often out of unfavorable yardage situations because New York's run defense is pretty stout.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The obvious matchup is Eli Manning versus Houston's secondary. The Texans have surrendered 1,421 passing yards in four games, ranking 31st against the pass (only Jacksonville is worse). So, that means Manning will have a huge game, right?

    I wouldn't be so sure. Linebacker Brian Cushing, who won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award last season, will be back from his four-game suspension. His presence, along with the possible return of free safety Eugene Wilson, will bolster Houston's defensive backfield.

    The Giants will have to do things aerially because establishing Ahmad Bradshaw will be very difficult. Houston is eighth versus the run.

    RECAP: I really don't understand this point spread. Vegas is telling us that the Giants and Texans are equal. If Andre Johnson is out, I can buy that, but he could easily play.

    I'm taking Houston, but this shady line and Johnson's health scare me. This is my second and final zero-unit selection of the week.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    What in the world is Vegas thinking with this point spread?
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 76% (100,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Giants are 25-11 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Texans are 16-27 ATS after a win (10-11 since 2007).
  • Opening Line: Texans -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Retractable roof.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Giants 20
    Texans -3 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Giants 34, Texans 10



    Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Saints at Cardinals, Chargers at Raiders, Titans at Cowboys, Eagles at 49ers, Vikings at Jets


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks - Late Games



    NFL Picks - Sept. 30


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$20)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$40)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 4, 2014): 8-5 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 4, 2014): +$20

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 35-40-2, 46.7% (-$290)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13, 55.2% (+$610)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 1-3, 25.0% (-$910)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 35-25-1, 58.3% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$470

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,049-1,884-113, 52.1% (+$12,135)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 660-596-31 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 271-237-10 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1576-1562-47 (50.2%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-3
    Bears: 1-3
    Bucs: 3-1
    49ers: 2-2
    Eagles: 2-2
    Lions: 1-3
    Falcons: 2-2
    Cardinals: 1-2
    Giants: 2-2
    Packers: 2-2
    Panthers: 0-4
    Rams: 1-2
    Redskins: 2-2
    Vikings: 3-1
    Saints: 2-2
    Seahawks: 2-1
    Bills: 1-3
    Bengals: 0-3
    Colts: 2-2
    Broncos: 2-1
    Dolphins: 4-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 1-3
    Chargers: 0-4
    Jets: 1-3
    Ravens: 0-3
    Texans: 2-2
    Chiefs: 3-1
    Patriots: 2-2
    Steelers: 2-2
    Titans: 2-2
    Raiders: 3-1
    Divisional: 8-6 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 3-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 9-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 7-4 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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