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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2009): 6-10 (-$1,450)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2009): 8-7-1 (-$685)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2009): 8-6-2 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2009): 6-9-1 (-$75)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2009): 2-2 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2009): 1-3 (-$1,130)

NFL Picks (2009): 150-122-9 (+$3,400)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Jan. 24, 1:35 p.m. ET.



New York Jets (11-7) at Indianapolis Colts (15-2)
Line: Colts by 8.5. Total: 40.

Walt's Projected Line: Colts -9.
Sunday, 3:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 19 Recap: A frustrating weekend to say the least. I went 1-3 with my sides, including a pair of 5-unit losses with Baltimore and Arizona. And it wasn't just frustrating because of my -11.3 units. Look at these numbers from my three losses:

Teams I Picked (Arz, Bal, Dal):
Fumbles: 10. FGs: 1-4.

Teams I Went Against (No, Ind, Min):
Fumbles: 0. FGs: 5-5.

Seriously, how does this happen? You can't predict fumbles (unless you're talking about Houston Texans running backs), and all of the kickers I pick always choke.

With that in mind, I stand by all of my picks this weekend except for the Dallas-Minnesota selection. I should have known better than to bet on Wade Phillips. But going against teams that rested their starters is something I have always done and will continue to do. Sure, that strategy was 1-2 this weekend (would have been 2-1 if the Ravens didn't kill themselves with penalties and red-zone fumbles), but it's 14-6 since divisional realignment.

I don't know about you, but I think I'll stick with the 70-percent system. It works and makes money over the long haul, and the fact that it was 1-2 this weekend will allow oddsmakers to inflate the lines in Round 2 next year. That's when we'll cash in and make it back to the black.

SATURDAY STRUGGLES: Instead of the Vegas segment (the Chargers, the only lopsided-bet team last week, failed to cover), I want to talk about something pretty insane that I noticed recently.

As I watched the Ravens destroy themselves with penalties and red-zone fumbles, I thought to myself, "Man, I don't think I've nailed a single NFL pick on a Saturday."

I looked it up, and strangely enough, I am TERRIBLE on Saturdays. And not just in the NFL - I'm talking every single sport.

Check out these mind-boggling numbers:

Saturday NFL:
0-5, -$2,090

Non-Saturday NFL:
150-117-9, +$5,490

Saturday College Football:
27-32, -$5,140

Non-Saturday College Football:
8-6, +$370

Saturday NBA:
6-8, -$590

Non-Saturday NBA:
39-37, +$50

Saturday College Basketball:
1-3-1, -$570

Non-Saturday Basketball:
12-7, +$1,440

What the hell? How bizarre is that? How is it possible to be so horrible on one day out of the week and so good the other six? Well, I guess it's better than the other way around, right?

RANDOM NOTES: 1. Not one, but two Rebecca Grant cleavage sightings this weekend! She's definitely bringing it for the playoffs!

As Rebecca appeared on TV, Awesome Kelly in Arizona (i.e. a female) sent me a text, "Rebecca Grant cleavage sighting!"

Later, right before the Chargers-Jets game, forum member Sanchez asked, "Is this the channel with the cleavage woman I always miss?"

Spaz350 replied, "Nope, she's on Fox. And you missed her, and her cleavage, again."

2. A few weeks ago, I compared Chad Ochocinco and Darrelle Revis to Little Mac versus Glass Joe. Zack D. from Popdose.com sent over this Little Mac video.

3. Last week, I posted a rendition of Tony Romo's Facebook page. This week, I'll show you Emmitt Smith's Facebook page.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: To quote Dan Dierdof, "Hwa hwa hwa hwa, I guess people were wrong when they said the Colts should have played their starters! Hwa hwa hwa hwa!"

Though Indianapolis won, benching the starters was clearly the wrong move. The offense was completely out of sync against the Ravens, mustering just five more yards than Baltimore. In fact, outside of two drives, the Colts had just 139 total yards of offense. Peyton Manning looked disoriented throughout the contest. He launched two picks (one called back), and while he did collect 246 yards, it took him 44 attempts to get there (5.6 YPA).

If Manning plays like that against the Jets, the Colts aren't scoring many points. New York's pass defense is ridiculously incredible, thanks to Rex Ryan's zone blitzes and Darrelle Revis' ability to take away one side of the field. Revis will eliminate Reggie Wayne, so look for Manning to utilize Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon a lot.

Of course, Manning already played the Jets, so we have something to look at. In two-and-a-half quarters, Manning was 14-of-21 for 192 yards. Not bad, but Manning uncharacteristically couldn't get anything going against New York with two minutes remaining in the first half. Manning always scores on teams at the end of the first half.

The Colts led 15-10 when Manning exited the game, but it's worth noting that one touchdown came after a Jets penalty gave Indianapolis a first down on a failed 4th-and-1 conversion. Still, Manning didn't have a bad outing, but the playoffs could be another story; he's just 2-5 versus 3-4 defense in the postseason. Yes, he just beat the Ravens, but as mentioned earlier, his performance was horrific (by his standards).

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Colts just shut down Baltimore's running game, so the same will happen here, right?

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Unlike the Ravens, the Jets are more of a power-rushing team; they slam it down the opposition's throat, as opposed to Baltimore, whose star runner relies on speed and elusiveness.

The Colts have a quick defense, but are also a bit undersized. When they battled the Jets back in Week 15, they surrendered 200 rushing yards on 39 carries to Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. You may point out that Indianapolis benched its defensive starters after three quarters, and that's fair. However, even after eliminating the Jets' fourth-quarter rushing totals, Jones and Greene still combined for 110 yards on 26 attempts. For three quarters of work, that's pretty good.

Of course, Brian Schottenheimer will be a lot less predictable than Cam Cameron. While Cameron ran the ball on almost every single first down, Schottenheimer will mix it up with bootlegs and misdirection plays to keep Indianapolis' defense constantly guessing.

RECAP: If you want to take the Colts, bet them now because like the Chargers-Jets spread last week, the line will go up on Sunday. If you like New York, wait until Sunday afternoon to place your bet.

I'm taking the Jets to cover. Their defense is so good that I can't imagine this being a blowout.

I also don't trust Peyton Manning against a 3-4 defense in the playoffs. The Ravens were the right side last week (in terms of the spread), but they gave that game away with tons of dumb penalties and two red-zone fumbles. It should have been a lot closer than 20-3 (maybe 16-13). Unless the Jets commit the same dumb mental errors, this contest should be tight as well.


The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
Tons of pressure on the Colts here. They allowed the Jets to get into the playoffs. If they lose this game, they'll be ridiculed.


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Slight action edge toward the Colts, but nothing major. This could pick up on Saturday and Sunday like it did in the Chargers-Jets game.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 62% (271,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Jets are 7-3 ATS on the road in 2009.
  • Jets are 5-2 ATS as underdogs in 2009.
  • Peyton Manning is 3-8 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
  • Peyton Manning is 2-5 SU vs. 3-4 Defenses in the playoffs (6-3 SU vs. 4-3 Defenses).
  • Opening Line: Colts -7.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Retractable roof.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    AFC Championship NFL Pick: Colts 23, Jets 20
    Jets +8.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 40 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Colts 30, Jets 17





    Minnesota Vikings (13-4) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)
    Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 54.

    Walt's Projected Line: Saints -4.
    Sunday, 6:40 ET

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    We are running our third-annual NFL Mock Draft Contest. You can win $350, and it's free to enter. All you need to do is make a 2010 NFL Mock Draft!

    Also, there was a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Tuesday. A fourth round is coming soon.

    And Jerks of the Week for Jan. 18, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) Cocoa Puffs. 2) Lane Kiffin. 3) Wade Phillips/Nate Kaeding/Me.

    Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will be doing this game for FOX, but what if the broadcasting team was Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt")? Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New Orleans, a place that has way too many French people for my taste! Tonight, the Minnesota Vikings take on the New Orleans Saints! Guys, I just heard that Brett Favre was playing in this game. He must have been traded just recently because I have a keen eye for football news and hadn't heard this until now. What do you think Brett Favre brings to the Vikings, and do you think they can pull the upset here?

    Emmitt: I search on America on the Line, and I find a site called Waltersfootballs.coms. The arthur of this site say, "Favre have oldness. Brett Favre suffer from the injury bug too many time. Favre sucks and Favre have selfish. Very selfishess." This is horrible analysists. Not only is Favre is one of the best quarterback in the history of the National Football Conference League, he is one of the best quarterback in the division. To say that Favre have very selfishness make me believe that this arthur do not knows what he talkin' about.

    Reilly: I couldn't agree with you more, Emmitt. Brett Favre is God. I love the Eagles, but I built a shrine in my house dedicated to good old No. 14.

    Herm: The number's right! I mean the number's wrong! It's wrong! You have the wrong number! You added a digit! Take out the one! Remove the one! Subtract 10! Take away 10! If you do this, you'll have the right number! And then the number will be wrong! I mean the number will be right!

    Reilly: Shut up, stupid Herm! Emmitt, the Vikings are obviously going to win this game because they made it here without Favre, and now he's only going to make their team better. What do the Saints need to do to stop Favre from scoring 80 or 90 points?

    Emmitt: I have one idea on what they can do, and that is bring Deion Smith out of retirementing. Only Deion can maybe stop Brett Favre from debacling an offense on other team.

    Reilly: I agree, but we both know that's not going to happen. I'll tell you what though, if the Eagles were playing the Vikings, I think they would definitely win. Donovan McNabb, my favorite player on the whole planet, would throw for 900 yards and eight touchdowns. You can't convince me otherwise.

    Herm: You can't do that! That will never happen! Those would be records! The records would be broken! The records would be shattered! I know how you stop Brett Favre! I know how you stop him! I know how you contain him! I know how you prevent him from scoring! Here it is! Are you ready to see it!? Are you ready to know how to stop him? Here it goes! Here's my analysis! Watch it now! Watch it! What you do is... uhh... umm...

    Reilly: Of course you've got nothing, Herm! That's because you can't stop Favre unless you're the Eagles! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: To quote Wade Phillips, "We throw an interception, we miss a field goal, I think we were playing pretty good." Hey Cowboys fans, how great do you feel that Wade is coming back next year?

    As dumb as Mr. Turkey Neck sounded at his press conference, he sort of had a point. Dallas' offense was moving the chains early on until they committed dumb errors in Minnesota territory, like Tony Romo's fumble or Shaun Suisham's missed field goal. Of course, everything changed once Flozell Adams suffered an injury, and Phillips and Jason Garrett decided to block Jared Allen with a tight end. With such brilliant moves, you wonder why Wobbling Wade receives so much criticism.

    Unless the Saints incur a major injury to a key offensive lineman, I don't see the Vikings having much success getting pressure on Drew Brees. Brees is protected by one of the elite offensive fronts in the league and seldom gets sacked. The Cardinals couldn't get to him at all despite placing tons of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the week before.

    Sean Payton is the best offensive play-caller in the NFL. It was humorous that he was able to get Karlos Dansby covering Marques Colston at times on Saturday. Having middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley in the lineup instead of E.J. Henderson wasn't much of a factor against Dallas, but you know Payton is going to find some ways to have one of his talented weapons take advantage of Brinkley's coverage liability.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The story of this past weekend (for me, at least) wasn't Minnesota's blowout victory over Dallas, or the Jets upset over the Chargers. It was how well the Saints defense played against the Cardinals. Holding Arizona's dynamic offense to just 14 points was a very impressive feat, and one that for some reason is going unnoticed by the media.

    How did the Saints become this good offensively? Simple - two of their top three defensive players (corner Jabari Greer and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis) were hurt, but are now completely healthy again.

    Having Ellis dominating the interior of the line of scrimmage made all of the difference. Save for that initial 70-yard run by Tim Hightower, Arionza did absolutely nothing on the ground. The Vikings have struggled to run the ball since Week 10 (Adrian Peterson hasn't gained 100 yards on the ground since then), and I don't see why that would change here with Ellis healthy again.

    Meanwhile, Greer will be locked down on Sidney Rice. Rice dominated Dallas' secondary, but Greer is a top-five NFL corner and is certainly talented enough to take Rice out of the game. It was no fluke that Larry Fitzgerald failed to log a single reception until right before halftime last week.

    Brett Favre will have to look elsewhere if he wants to move the chains. And if the healthy Saints can limit Kurt Warner to 17-of-26 for 205 yards and an interception, I think they can do the same thing to Favre.

    RECAP: Both the Saints and Vikings were able to win convincingly this past weekend because of the crowd noise. When a team is good and the fans are loud, the dome provides such a huge advantage. Kurt Warner and Tony Romo were completely flustered, combining for seven sacks and four fumbles.

    After Minnesota's win over Dallas, Favre said, "It was nice to be on the quiet side of [the Metrodome]." Well, he definitely won't be on the quite side of the Superdome. It's incredibly difficult to play in New Orleans, which will likely lead to some Minnesota miscues.

    The Vikings aren't even a good road team anyway. They were 9-0 at home this year, but they've lost three away games in a row: at Chicago, Carolina and Arizona. Lesser teams have won in Chicago and Carolina.

    I like the Saints here obviously. I think they're the better team, and I feel as though the Superdome crowd will be too much for Favre and the Vikings offense to handle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    None found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 59% (211,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Saints are 28-42 ATS at home since 2001 (11-6 since 2008).
  • Saints are 21-31 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Saints are 9-21 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Saints -4.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    NFC Championship NFL Pick: Saints 31, Vikings 17
    Saints -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 54 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Saints 31, Vikings 28




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.






  • NFL Picks - Sept. 30


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents






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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$20)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-3
    Bears: 1-3
    Bucs: 3-1
    49ers: 2-2
    Eagles: 2-2
    Lions: 1-3
    Falcons: 2-2
    Cardinals: 1-2
    Giants: 2-2
    Packers: 2-2
    Panthers: 0-4
    Rams: 1-2
    Redskins: 2-2
    Vikings: 3-1
    Saints: 2-2
    Seahawks: 2-1
    Bills: 1-3
    Bengals: 0-3
    Colts: 2-2
    Broncos: 2-1
    Dolphins: 4-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 1-3
    Chargers: 0-4
    Jets: 1-3
    Ravens: 0-3
    Texans: 2-2
    Chiefs: 3-1
    Patriots: 2-2
    Steelers: 2-2
    Titans: 2-2
    Raiders: 3-1
    Divisional: 8-6 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 3-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 9-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 7-4 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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