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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)

NFL Picks (2009): 27-20-2 (+$2,275)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 28, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks - Late Games

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
Line: Redskins by 6.5. Total: 38.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Redskins -6.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Redskins -6.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Week 2 Recap: I couldn't ask for anything more. I went 10-6 overall last week, but I hit my top four plays, including my September NFL Pick of the Month. I'd like to personally thank Tony Aurora Snowmo for choking like his porn-star counterpart during Jerry Jones' unveiling of his new palace and his precious JumboTron. The only way it could have been better is if one of the punters shattered a hole in the JumboTron. Don't worry though - I think that's going to happen soon...

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There's a reason Jason Campbell is just 1-4 against the spread as a favorite of 6.5 or more, and it's the same reason why the Redskins have never scored 30 or more points with Jim Zorn.

The bottom line: Zorn is clueless and has no idea what he's doing. Case in point No. 1: Despite the fact that the Rams struggled to stop the run last week, Zorn gave Clinton Portis only 19 carries. Portis turned those attempts into 79 yards. Meanwhile, Campbell threw a whopping 35 times. Way to give the ball to your best offensive player. Case in point No. 2: Despite Campbell's massive attempts, Zorn does not trust his quarterback when it counts most. In one red-zone sequence, Zorn gave Portis two carries (no gain) and then an option to throw, which predictably sailed incomplete to Chris Cooley.

The Lions suck against the run - as we saw last week in their failed attempts to tackle Adrian Peterson - but it won't matter if Zorn doesn't give the rock to Portis consistently.

Detroit's secondary is awful as well, so Campbell could post another high completion percentage. However, if Campbell throws a ton, he'll actually be sacked this week. Washington's offensive line is banged up yet again, while the only thing the Lions can do well defensively is pressure the quarterback. They got to Brett Favre three times on Sunday, and the Vikings have a pretty good front line.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Unlike Zorn, Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan are intelligent enough to get the ball into their best players' hands. Even in a losing effort, Kevin Smith touched the ball 26 times out of 66 plays.

Despite the addition of Albert Haynesworth, the Redskins have not been able to stop the run yet this year. Even behind a crap offensive line, Steven Jackson mustered 104 yards on just 17 carries last week. Through two games, Washington is giving up 4.8 YPC. Looks like that $100 million contract was a great idea.

Though Matthew Stafford appeared to struggle (18-of-30, 152 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs), I thought he played relatively well Sunday. Stafford made some nice throws in the first half and allowed Detroit to convert 11 of the game's initial 14 first downs. One of the picks, by the way, came pretty late in the game when he was just trying to make a play.

With Smith able to run more effectively versus a disappointing Washington defense, Stafford will capitalize with play-action opportunities and short-yardage conversions to Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew.

RECAP: Last year, the Lions were a much worse team and still nearly beat the Redskins at home, losing by eight. Though they're 0-2 and have gone down now 19 times in a row, they are much more competitive. Stafford will keep improving and his connection with Megatron will continue to grow stronger.

The Redskins, meanwhile, have played like garbage this season. They were dominated by the Giants and then probably would have lost to the Rams if Donnie Avery didn't fumble at the Washington 5-yard line late in the game.

I obviously like Detroit to cover. But believe it or not, I'm also picking them to win! This Zorn-Campbell combination is that bad.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
I'm not sure how much emotion the Lions put into that Vikings game, but if they were at 100 percent, they could have trouble matching that intensity here. On the other hand, the game was pretty much decided in the fourth quarter, so maybe they can bring it.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
You usually don't see the public back the Lions like this.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 74% (117,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jason Campbell is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 more.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Redskins 17
    Lions +6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 38.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Lions 19, Redskins 14

    Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
    Line: Eagles by 7.5. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Eagles -10 (No McNabb).
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Eagles -11.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Vegas Recap: Vegas took it up the rear end in Week 1 and that was once again the case this past weekend. The house won with the Texans and Bears covering, but they took a huge loss as publicly backed Minnesota, Oakland, New Orleans, Washington, Baltimore and Indianapolis all beat the number. Vegas will have to fix some games soon before it takes too big of a hit.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: "Kansas City offense" is pretty much an oxymoron. Outside of Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have no redeemable players and they can't do anything well. Their offensive line is garbage, they can't run the ball, they can't pass protect, and they can't hit a big play because of Matt Cassel's noodle arm. Cassel can move around and scramble for a first down, but that's about it.

    The Chiefs will be going up against a very angry Philadelphia defense that just surrendered 48 to New Orleans. The Eagles, playing for pride, will effortlessly eliminate the run and force Cassel to convert third-and-long situations. Cassel will be able to run for a first down here and there, but Kansas City will be unable to move the chains consistently.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Though Kevin Kolb tossed three picks Sunday, I thought he played relatively well for a player making his first start against an underrated defense and an offense that asked him to match them point-for-point. Kolb wasn't great by any means, but under the circumstances, he was solid.

    Fortunately for Kolb, Kansas City's defense can't do anything particularly well. The Eagles simply have too many playmakers like Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and the underrated Jason Avant.

    One thing that concerns me about Philadelphia's offense is Andy Reid's obsession with the Wildcat. Reid stated that he has 10 plays designed for QB Dog Killer in this game. Unless the Eagles are up big, using QB Dog Killer would be a huge mistake. The Eagles tried this in the preseason, and whenever they ran a QB Dog Killer play, their offense stalled. After the game, Donovan McNabb even said the offense lacked rhythm when the Wildcat was utilized.

    RECAP: As you can tell, I'm assuming Kolb gets the start against the inferior Chiefs. That would be the prudent move. The Eagles could probably beat Kansas City with 10 men playing on offense and defense, so there is no reason for McNabb to play and risk taking a setback.

    I know Reid is just 3-7 against the spread going into a bye, but he won and covered last year. Besides, teams favored by a touchdown or more before a bye week usually fare extremely well (check the stats below).

    SURVIVOR PICK: I'm taking the Eagles as my survivor pick. Coming off a loss, their embarrassed defense is going to come out fired up against the miserable Chiefs. My top choice for this would be the Ravens, but I used them already.

    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Eagles are going to be focused for this game going into a Week 4 bye. They'll also be looking for respect after getting debacled.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    The action on this game has gone back and forth.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (80,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 30-6 ATS going into a bye (Andy Reid 1-0).
  • Chiefs are 11-6 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.
  • Eagles are 25-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Eagles are 11-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 3-7 ATS going into a bye under Andy Reid.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Showers, 67 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Eagles 48, Chiefs 17
    Eagles -7.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Over 38.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Survivor Pick (2-0)
    Eagles 34, Chiefs 14

    Green Bay Packers (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-2)
    Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 42.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Packers -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Packers -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. I like Rodney Harrison as an analyst, but he said something very odd Sunday night. He called Ray Lewis' fourth-down, game-winning tackle on Darren Sproles the "biggest play of his career."

    Umm... unless I'm as senile as Dick Stockton, I'm pretty sure Lewis won this thing called the Super Bowl. It was a nice play, but I'd count on Lewis being able to tackle a 140-pound dude every week if he had to.

    2. Chris Curtis alerted me of this on Facebook: "During the Packer game the Bengals line moved and Ed Hochuli said 'False start, the whole offensive line.'"

    Hochuli is the man. Even if he misses a call like he did in the San Diego-Denver game, he can still use his big muscles to make things right in the end. The Chargers did win the AFC West after all.

    3. Four weeks of the preseason. Two weeks of the regular season. Except for one fluke return on an onsides attempt in the preseason, there has not been a single kickoff return for a touchdown yet! By taking away the three-man wedge, Emperor Roger Goodell has ruined the NFL for us all.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers' greatest weakness is obvious right now. They simply cannot protect Aaron Rodgers, as the offensive line is a huge mess. Seriously, Antwan Odom getting five sacks? What's next, Mike Mamula getting 10 sacks?

    Well, what do you do to fix this in the middle of the season? You play the Rams, who have just one sack this year.

    With more time in the pocket, Aaron Rodgers will be able to find open receivers downfield. St. Louis struggles against the run, of course, so Ryan Grant could also have a big day.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Packers shut down Matt Forte in Week 1, but the Bengals, who were more familiar with their 3-4 look, ran all over them with Cedric Benson gaining 141 yards.

    So, is Green Bay great versus the rush, or is it terrible and Week 1 just happened to be a fluke? I'd say it's somewhere in the middle, and maybe even a bit better than that if B.J. Raji is healthy and in the lineup.

    Nevertheless, it won't matter against the Rams because the Packers will be able to put eight men in the box to force Marc Bulger to beat them. Green Bay gets to the quarterback consistently, so if Bulger's in a ton of long-yardage situations, he will take a ton of sacks.

    RECAP: There's no question that the Packers are the far superior team. The only question is if Green Bay will be looking ahead to the Minnesota game next week. Given that they're coming off a loss as a huge home favorite, I would say that they'll be focused.

    The Rams, meanwhile, could be the team that shows up flat. They put a lot of effort into the Washington game and lost at the very end. I don't think they'll be able to match that same intensity again.

    With that in mind, I'm only laying one unit on the Packers. Vegas has gone through two very brutal weeks, and now they're giving us this very shady line that is inducing a ton of Green Bay money. There are a couple of games I'd completely avoid this weekend, and this is one of them.

    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers have the Vikings on Monday night next week, but they're coming off a loss. The Rams, meanwhile, put a lot of energy into the Washington game and came up short. They could be flat here.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Predictable money flow. No one wants any part of the Rams.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 93% (128,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Teams in home openers are 12-18 ATS this year.
  • Opening Line: Packers -7.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Rams 10
    Packers -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 42 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Packers 36, Rams 17

    San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
    Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Vikings -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    The Vikings broke into the top 10 of my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, but that won't be good enough for some Minnesota backers. Here's a humorous e-mail I received from an angry Vikings fan.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If you're too lazy to click the link, that guy was basically furious that I'm so biased against the Vikings. Yeah, living in Philadelphia, I'm all about the Bears, Lions and Packers being FTW!

    I neither like nor hate the Vikings, but what I did dislike this offseason was Minnesota's acquisition of Brett Favre. You may say that Favre is 2-0 and has a great completion percentage (77.1) right now, but I'll say that Favre has battled two horrendous defenses and hasn't been forced to do anything outside of making short throws. Favre hasn't gone deep yet, and to those of you who think that Favre can still get it done downfield, I'd argue that he didn't go downfield much late in the 2008 season, and that his shoulder and rib injuries cannot be ignored.

    Favre hasn't thrown a pick yet, but he came awfully close to doing so twice against the Lions. Of course ESPN won't tell you that, but Favre essentially lollipopped two balls up for grabs in the third quarter.

    Luckily, Favre has been bailed out by Adrian Peterson twice. But that won't happen here. San Francisco's stalwart defense ranks seventh versus the run, so Favre will be asked to move the chains for the first time all year. I don't see him doing that on a consistent basis.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers essentially employ the same game plan as the Vikings. They'll run as much as possible and ask their quarterback to convert short throws to move the sticks.

    Unfortunately, Frank Gore faces a tall task against the Williams Wall. Shaun Hill will be forced to do more in this game than what he has done in the first two weeks of the season, so like the Vikings, the 49ers could be forced into a bunch of three-and-outs.

    RECAP: These teams are pretty much identical (aside from the ESPN hype), so getting seven points with one is a huge bargain. The more significant question is how much I like the 49ers in this contest.

    The answer: a lot. The Vikings are 2-0 and in control of their division. They host the Packers next week, so what do they care about San Francisco? Sure, the 49ers are 2-0, but they're still seen as inferior in the eyes of the media. To me, this game means much more to San Francisco than it does to Minnesota.

    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    Though the 49ers are 2-0 and playing with fire, the Vikings are in a LOOK-AHEAD ALERT. They're atop the NFC North and battle the Packers next week. This game does not mean that much to them. Meanwhile, this is San Francisco's chance to prove that it belongs among the top teams in the league.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    About equal action.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 53% (143,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Teams in home openers are 12-18 ATS this year.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -6.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 16, Vikings 13
    49ers +7 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 39.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Vikings 27, 49ers 24

    Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at New England Patriots (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 46.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Patriots -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Patriots -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. I'd like to personally thank Jeff Tedford for ruining my California -14 bet. Cal got up to a 21-7 lead but just stopped scoring. Coincidentally, Tedford's best player, Jahvid Best, got just two carries in the first 20 minutes of the second half.

    I'm sure that was a tough coaching decision: "Hmm... should I give the ball to my best player and ice this game, or should I give it to my crappy players and allow Minnesota to hang around?"

    If we ever discover that Tedford, Jim Zorn and Brad Clueless are all related, I won't be shocked one bit.

    2. I thought it was stupid how the Texas-Texas Tech game was billed as a revenge game for the Longhorns. Sure, Tech won the meeting last year, but the guys who were responsible for it (Michael Crabtree, Graham Harrell, etc.) are gone. That's like holding a personal grudge against someone because you didn't like the person who lived in their house before them. It doesn't make any sense.

    If the Longhorns really wanted revenge, they could have sabotaged the contract negotiations between Crabtree and 49ers. But that's already happened, so no revenge for Texas.

    3. It's no secret that college football refs are incredibly sketchy, but none is more sketchy than David Witvoet. Witvoet, a Big Ten official, has been a part of numerous shady calls over the years. If I remember correctly, he gave Michigan two extra seconds in Penn State's only loss in 2005. He called a Minnesota play that went out of bounds a touchdown last year that allowed the Gophers to cover against Ohio State in the final few minutes. And on Saturday, he ruled an obvious Michael Floyd touchdown incomplete. Ultimately, Michigan State covered. I was thrilled.

    While Googling Witvoet (I forgot his name), I came across a neat Web page that looks at shady college football officiating.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is done. Finished. He should just retire. Well, that's what the public and oddsmakers seem to think based on this spread. New England would have been a 7-point favorite at the very least in this game before its loss to the Jets.

    But Brady was awful against the Jets, right? Sure he was, but he was playing one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Falcons really pale in comparison. They cannot stop the run and they obviously don't have a guy like Darrelle Revis who can take Randy Moss out of the game.

    The Patriots will be able to run more on the Falcons, setting up Brady in short-yardage situations. Moss will be open downfield, while Wes Welker should be back in the lineup. I don't think Atlanta will have much success containing New England's offense.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: The big problem with the Patriots is not Tom Brady's knee; it's a defense that is down two of its best players going into the year (Jerod Mayo and Richard Seymour). New England has been mediocre against the run and downright brutal versus the pass, which doesn't bode well in this game.

    The Falcons have a top-notch scoring attack. Matt Ryan is not showing any signs of a sophomore slump, and is actually better than he was as a rookie. Having Tony Gonzalez as a target over the middle helps a lot. And of course the running game is still capable of moving the chains.

    RECAP: I don't think I've ever not placed a ton of units on Tom Brady after a loss. Despite the knee injury, Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and I expect him and the rest of the team to come out fired up after a loss to a divisional rival. This is a statement game for New England.

    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    The media is saying the Patriots are done. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are always at their best with their backs against the wall.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    It's been about equal action all week. Slight edge toward New England now.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 61% (138,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 11-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Patriots are 22-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 41-33 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Tom Brady is 100-29 as a starter (76-51 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 18-7 ATS off a loss.
  • Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Rain, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 24
    Patriots -4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 46.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Patriots 26, Falcons 10

    Tennessee Titans (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)
    Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Jets -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Jets -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    No Herm Edwards quotes this week. Why? Because for some reason, he wasn't on the new crappy NFL Primetime. Neither were any highlights of Denver's offense, which scored 26 points. Meanwhile, Trey Wingo told us that before Sunday, the Patriots haven't lost to the Jets since Bill Clinton was in office. Guess he didn't get the memo that New York beat New England on a Thursday night last year.

    You guessed it: It's time for my NFL Primetime Sucks segment.

    I got an e-mail from Benjamin R.: Why do you think it's ESPN's fault for taking away the old NFL Primetime? Sunday Night Football departed for NBC in 2006, and as a consequence ESPN has lost its rights to those long 7 p.m. highlight packages.

    I'm well aware that ESPN can't televise NFL Primetime on Sunday evening, but they certainly can right after the Sunday night game. So, what they should do is have Chris Berman and Tom Jackson tape the show so they can broadcast it at midnight (for the West Coast people) and Monday afternoon around 5 or 6 (for the East Coast people).

    ESPN for some reason lacks any sort of foresight. Instead of continuing its best show, it has replaced it with a horribly watered-down version featuring the inaccurate Trey Wingo and the extremely annoying Merril Hoge. "Factor back!"

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: It's the 2008 Baltimore Ravens all over again. The Jets are going to run a lot with multiple running backs, allowing Mark Sanchez to convert short-yardage situations. Sanchez, like last year's Joe Flacco, is a smart quarterback who doesn't get fazed by much. It's no accident that the Jets are 2-0 right now.

    Tennessee's defense, meanwhile, has been pedestrian at best this year. They played well in the first three quarters of the Steelers game, but it was very apparent that without Albert Haynesworth, they couldn't get to Ben Roethlisberger. Last week, they once again struggled to put any pressure on Matt Schaub, allowing the Texans quarterback to torch their secondary.

    While the Titans seem to match up well against New York's offense because they're still great at containing the run, I wouldn't count on them rattling Sanchez or stopping the Jets offense from putting up enough points on the board.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Though the Titans scored 31 last week, their offense didn't play particularly well. They scored on three huge plays from Chris Johnson because Houston's defense is completely inept. Otherwise, Tennessee wasn't exactly proficient in sustaining drives. They lost the time-of-possession battle by nine minutes.

    Chris Johnson will not rush for 197 yards against the Jets. Kris Jenkins will make sure that doesn't happen. With the running game held to minimal gains, Kerry Collins will have to move the chains on his own in long-yardage situations. Given that the Jets bring tons of pressure and that Justin Gage will be a non-factor because of Darrelle Revis, I can't see the Titans putting up too many points in this contest.

    RECAP: The Titans are 0-2 and desperate for a win. I think that's why the public isn't pounding the Jets.

    What the Tennessee backers don't realize is that this is also an important game for New York. The Titans are 0-2, but they are still considered among the elite teams in the NFL, so the Jets aren't going to just roll over. In fact, that's why this line isn't higher; Vegas is catering to public perception that this Tennessee squad is just as good as last year's.

    It's not. Haynesworth is gone. The Titans no longer have a great defense. And Rex Ryan beat this squad back in January when he was with the Ravens, so he knows what it takes to defeat them again.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Jets are playing with fire and are still in sort of an underdog role, while the Titans are now in a must-win situation. No edge.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
    Action has shaded toward the Titans.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 67% (180,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Titans are 18-8 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.
  • Jets are 4-10 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Jets -3.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Few showers, 69 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Titans 13
    Jets -1.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 37 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Jets 24, Titans 17

    New York Giants (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
    Line: Giants by 6.5. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Giants -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Giants -10.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    I don't know what FOX is doing. If canceling quality shows wasn't enough (hey idiots, people DVR, Tivo, tape, download shows, etc., so don't go by stupid Nielsen ratings), FOX has given us the horribly inept duo of the senile Dick Stockton (who has a sparrow living in his hair, according to Angelo Cataldi) and the unopinionated/misinformed Charles Davis.

    If you haven't heard these two in action, here's what it sounds like:

    Dick Stockton: First down, Giants! That was Phil Simms to Plaxico Burress for 22 yards.

    Charles Davis: Eli Manning is really coming into his own as an NFL quarterback.

    Dick Stockton: Charles Way up the middle for a 2-yard run. First down, Giants!

    Charles Davis: Brandon Jacobs is a very powerful runner. This is his 10th year in the league.

    Dick Stockton: The San Francisco Giants run an end-around with Chris Calloway! First down, Giants! What a great young receiver!

    Charles Davis: Steve Smith is really stepping up his game right now. I really liked him coming out of Utah.

    Dick Stockton: Why does my head hurt? It feels like a bird is pecking at it.

    Charles Davis: Sometimes my head hurts too for no reason and then it just goes away.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: I'm going to make this short and sweet because this is the biggest mismatch of the NFL this week.

    Tampa Bay's defense is terrible. They can't stop run (28th). They can't contain the pass (32nd). They can't get to the quarterback (3 sacks). Even Gaines Adams, their No. 1 pick from 2007, might be benched. Even worse, starting safety/linebacker Jermaine Phillips is out for about two months.

    The Giants are going to terrorize the Buccaneers with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Once Tampa realizes that it has to put 11 men in the box to hold New York to less than five yards per carry, Eli Manning will torch this anemic secondary with the emerging Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Eli will not be pressured all afternoon.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The one thing the Buccaneers can do well is run the ball. Unfortunately, you can't run the ball if you're down 17-0 out of the gate.

    And here's some more bad news for the Bucs: Justin Tuck said he will play in this contest. If Tuck is in the game, Tampa won't be able to run the ball. Instead, Byron Leftwich and his 20-second throwing motion will have to beat the Giants. Over-under on New York sacks in this contest: 9.5.

    RECAP: I'm wondering how high this line would have to be for me to consider betting on the Buccaneers. Twenty? Twenty-five? If the Giants were favored by 25, I still might take them. That's how bad this Tampa Bay team is.

    What scares me is how low this spread is and how much of a beating Vegas has taken in the NFL the past two weeks. This spread should be at least 10. Instead, it's sitting at seven and people are pounding the Giants. I'd avoid betting this game because there could be some point shaving going on.

    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Giants just beat the Cowboys in an important game, and now have to play as a huge favorite in muggy Tampa Bay? Will they show up? For what it's worth, New York had two opportunities to have a let-down alert last year, but covered both games as massive favorites.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Tons of money on the Giants. Shocker.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 93% (128,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Road Rules: Tom Coughlin is 9-4 ATS on the road after a road win.
  • Giants are 22-6 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Giants are 12-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 30 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
  • Opening Line: Giants -7.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Buccaneers 17
    Giants -7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 45.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Giants 24, Buccaneers 0

    Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
    Line: Ravens by 13.5. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Ravens -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Ravens -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I'm going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week's edition:

    Hello teacher , are you vacant.

    I m Dr lemmy matt Cole 49 years old, i m an engineer i'm currently working with a construction compnay here in Montreal Canada.

    My daughter (vicky) will be coming down to your location, in 2weeks time for vacation and i don't want her to be less busy without doing something, and I have make decision that she should be attending your lessons..

    icky is 19 years old, she love swiming for fun, So she will be coming for 3 hours a day (9am to 12pm) 4times a week or at your lectsure period, so i need you to calculate the cost for 4 weeks lessons and i will want us to make an arrangement for a good Hotel for her in your area where she will be staying for the period of the vacations.

    Oh boy, a hot girl is coming to my classroom! I don't even have a classroom, but I can't wait! All I had to do is give this guy my credit card number so he could book a room for Vicky. I think it'll be worth it!

    And no, I'm not worried he'll steal my identity... how can you not trust a 49-year-old engineer named Dr. Lemmy Matt Cole? Am I vacant? Hell yes!

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: To the uneducated bettor, this line may seem too high. How can you lay 13 points with Baltimore's offense? They're not that good!

    Oh yes they are. Joe Flacco is on top of his game right now; the offensive line is one of the league's best; and the running game cannot be stopped - especially by a Cleveland defense that has allowed huge gains to every running back they've faced thus far, including the mediocre Correll Buckhalter.

    The Browns don't get much pressure on the quarterback, so Flacco will have all day to throw into Cleveland's secondary. Eric Mangini's pass defense is statistically decent (12th), but that's because it has gone up against two mediocre quarterbacks who can't go downfield (Brett Favre, Kyle Orton). Flacco's deep ball is very dangerous, as the Browns witnessed last year. He was 17-of-29 for 248 yards and two touchdowns in his second meeting versus Cleveland.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While Flacco is a young quarterback getting it done in the defensive AFC North, Brady Quinn is on the other side of the spectrum. Quinn refuses to go deep, which sucks the opposing defense closer to the line of scrimmage and limits the running game. If the Browns want to salvage a respectable season, Derek Anderson needs to be the starter.

    Instead, Mangini is rolling with Quinn again. The Browns can forget about running the ball versus Baltimore's stout front seven, so it'll be up to Quinn to move the sticks himself. Playing against the Ravens, that doesn't sound too promising. Expect a lot of turnovers.

    RECAP: The Ravens could be the best team in the league, while the Browns are absolutely horrid and haven't been competitive in the past six quarters. Cleveland has scored only one offensive touchdown in the past eight contests, and I can't imagine the team bucking that trend against Baltimore.

    In the previous game, I stated that I'd consider laying -25 with the Giants. The same thing applies here.

    The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
    This is a LOOK-AHEAD ALERT for the Ravens, who battle the Patriots next week. However, John Harbaugh did a great job preparing his team in its last look-ahead alert.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    No surprise that most of the action is on the Ravens.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 84% (127,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Road Rules: Teams are 133-85 ATS on the road after a road loss since 1996.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -14.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Browns 6
    Ravens -13.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 38.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Ravens 34, Browns 3

    Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Houston Texans (1-1)
    Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 47.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 2): Texans -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 2): Texans -4.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Texans.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I'm also going to post a Video of the Week. This is thanks to our own Bulldog. It's Adolf Hitler's reaction to ESPN's firing of Emmitt. I may have responded the same way, but it was a dark day for me so I just blocked it all out.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Something Texans fans will have to block out is the vision of Chris Johnson scoring three touchdowns of 50-plus yards. I don't know which is worse: giving up those three huge scores to Johnson or allowing a rookie quarterback to convert 10-of-18 third downs in his first start.

    Regardless of which one is more embarrassing, Houston's defense is terrible in every way. The Texans are currently giving up 6.8 yards per carry. That does not bode well against the Jaguars.

    Jacksonville utilizes Maurice Jones-Drew a lot like Jeff Fisher does with Johnson (save for goal-line situations). Jones-Drew will run the ball a ton, but he'll also be split out wide on occasion. The Texans couldn't contain Johnson, so I don't see why they'll have any more luck with Jones-Drew.

    With Jones-Drew gaining 5-6 yards per carry, David Garrard should have plenty of time in the pocket to attack Houston's 22nd-ranked secondary. The Texans have a whopping one sack on the year, so Garrard should have a clean pocket on most of his attempts.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Of course, who needs a defense when you can put up 34 points against the likes of the Titans? Matt Schaub was on fire last week and should be able to continue his aerial raid on Jacksonville's porous secondary.

    The Texans haven't been able to get Steve Slaton going thus far, but that'll obviously change here. Ever since the Jaguars dealt Marcus Stroud, they haven't been able to stop the run. They've been unsuccessful versus two mediocre ground attacks thus far (Indianapolis, Arizona), so I don't see anything that makes me believe they'll have more luck against Slaton.

    RECAP: In my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, I noted that the Jaguars quit on Jack Del Rio last week. They showed no effort in an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals.

    Does that mean they won't show up here either? Doubtful. The Texans clobbered the Jaguars on Monday Night Football last season, so Jacksonville will be out for revenge as a divisional underdog. This will be one of the rare occasions the Jaguars show up to play this year.

    Meanwhile, I'm not sure we're going to get the Texans at 100 percent here. They just beat the Titans in a very emotional game and now have to get up for an opponent they demolished last season. It's worth noting that after a victory against Tennessee in 2008, Houston was obliterated by the Raiders.

    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    A must-win for the Jaguars. The Texans, meanwhile, could be flat. The last time they beat the Titans, they were blasted by the Raiders. This is a change in dynamic for them, coming off a win as a huge dog and now hosting a squad they frequently beat up on.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Texans just had a great road victory over the Titans. No surprise that the public is backing them.
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 88% (123,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • History: Texans have won 4 of the last 6 meetings (5-1 ATS).
  • Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 19-41 ATS since 2000.
  • Jaguars are 13-8 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Texans are 13-22 ATS after a win (7-6 since 2007).
  • Opening Line: Texans -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

    Week 3 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Jaguars 30
    Jaguars +3.5 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Over 47 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Jaguars 31, Texans 24

    Week 3 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Bears at Seahawks, Saints at Bills, Broncos at Raiders, Dolphins at Chargers, Steelers at Bengals, Colts at Cardinals, Panthers at Cowboys

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 3 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 26

    2015 NBA Mock Draft - Feb. 24

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 18

    2016 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 5

    NFL Picks - Feb. 1

    NFL Free Agents


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 7-11
    Bears: 8-8
    Bucs: 9-7
    49ers: 8-7
    Eagles: 9-7
    Lions: 8-8
    Falcons: 8-8
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 5-11
    Packers: 13-4
    Panthers: 8-10
    Rams: 8-8
    Redskins: 8-8
    Vikings: 12-4
    Saints: 6-9
    Seahawks: 10-9
    Bills: 7-9
    Bengals: 6-11
    Colts: 8-10
    Broncos: 8-9
    Dolphins: 10-5
    Browns: 9-5
    Jaguars: 10-6
    Chargers: 7-9
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 10-8
    Texans: 8-7
    Chiefs: 9-6
    Patriots: 10-9
    Steelers: 9-8
    Titans: 8-6
    Raiders: 7-9
    Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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