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Week 14 NFL Picks



NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 99-90-3 (+$1,460)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Vegas betting action updated Dec. 8, 5:10 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games



Oakland Raiders (3-9) at San Diego Chargers (4-8)
Line: Chargers by 9. Total: 41.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Chargers -13.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Chargers -11.5.
Thursday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR).

It felt good to break out of my slump last weekend. I went 10-6 and had a surplus of 11.7 units. I'll definitely take that every week for the rest of the season.

No bad beats to complain about, but I do want to say something about two of the heavy-unit games I lost. I had San Diego and Green Bay for five and four units, respectively. Both teams needed a win to stay alive in the playoff race, yet they both came up short. Neither squad showed any sort of heart on defense, allowing the Falcons and Panthers to gash them in every way possible. I seriously feel embarrassed for these two teams. Not Big XII commissioner embarrassed, but close.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Will San Diego's stop unit actually show up to play this week? I can't say for certain, but it'll definitely be easier for them to stop the Raiders.

It's no secret that the Chargers can't rush the passer, which in turn puts too much pressure on their secondary. But that won't matter here; of San Diego's 23 sacks this season, six came against Oakland in the first meeting. They were consequently able to force JaMarcus Russell into an interception and a fumble.

Meanwhile, the Chargers, ranked just 18th versus the run, were able to restrict Michael Bush and Darren McFadden to a combined 68 rushing yards on 21 carries. I see no reason why Oakland will have any more success running the ball this time around.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It's not secret that LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled mightily this season, but one of his rare, solid performances came at Oakland in Week 4. In that contest, Tomlinson rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 attempts. The Raiders are 24th versus the run.

With Tomlinson poised for another big game, Philip Rivers should be able to orchestrate some effective play-action attempts. He'll need to; Oakland's corners have proven that they can shut down elite receivers.

Look for Antonio Gates to have a big game. Tony Gonzalez gashed Oakland's linebacking corps last week. In the previous meeting, Gates had five catches, 58 yards and a score.

RECAP: Norv Turner can't coach his way out of a paper bag, but he has been good for one thing during his tenure in San Diego - clobbering the Raiders. In three meetings versus Oakland, Turner has prevailed by scores of 28-14, 30-17 and 28-18. Because Turner coached Oakland recently, he can devise a good game plan to stop them.

Also, San Diego has its back against the wall. The team needs a victory more than ever this week. Yeah, the Chargers needed one last Sunday as well, but the Falcons were a formidable foe. The Raiders aren't.


The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
Can the Chargers make the playoffs? Believe it or not, they can. If they win out, and Denver loses two of its next three (Kansas City, Carolina, Buffalo), San Diego WILL make the postseason. With that in mind, it's do or die for the Chargers.

Norv Turner coached the Raiders in 2004-2005.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
After equal action all week, the public has finally chosen to go with the Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 76% (70,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Chargers.
  • History: Chargers have won the last 10 meetings.
  • Raiders are 10-24 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -10.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 17
    Chargers -9 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 41.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Chargers 34, Raiders 7

    Chargers-Raiders Recap



    Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)
    Line: Giants by 6.5. Total: 42.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Giants -11.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Giants -10.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, G Max Jean-Gilles (IR), CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree (IR), DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), S Sammy Knight (IR).

    I'll get to the Vegas analysis in the next game. For now, I want to talk about Andy Reid. I've made fun of Big Red a lot on this site in the past few months. Well, guess what? Here's some more Reid bashing!

    Following the victory over Arizona, in which the Eagles finally committed to the running game, Reid exclaimed the following in the press conference: "The running game worked!"

    It's amusing how surprised he sounded. It's as if a light bulb just flicked on above his head.

    Later, a reporter remarked, "You seem to give up on the run faster than you give up on the pass."

    Reid's response? Well, there was a 10-second pause. After that, Reid finally answered, "Yeah, you're probably right about that."

    Like Norv Turner, Reid can't coach his way out of a paper bag, but he is very good at one thing. I'll get to what that is toward the end.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I was disappointed that Brian Westbrook scored four touchdowns against the Cardinals. Not that I didn't want to see him succeed; I just had him ranked pretty low in my Weekly Fantasy Rankings. I felt a bit better when I heard that Chris Mortensen reported the Eagles coaching staff was shocked that Westbrook made it past the first quarter. OK, so I'm not totally depressed.

    Anyway, Westbrook isn't going to be ranked high when the Week 14 Rankings come out on Thursday morning. The Giants were fifth versus the rush. Clinton Portis could barely do anything against them.

    Westbrook is still worth a start, however, because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Look for Donovan McNabb to utilize him early and often. McNabb will also have to make some quick throws to DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and scramble whenever he needs to, like he did against Arizona; standing in the pocket too long is never a good idea against the Giants pass rush.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Eagles are sixth versus the rush, but that didn't matter when these two teams clashed in Week 10. Brandon Jacobs pummeled Philadelphia's front for 126 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Meanwhile, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw chipped in with a combined 91 yards on 22 attempts of their own.

    Besides the fact that Jacobs is a beast, the Giants rushing attack is so difficult to stop because their offensive line is the league's best. Philadelphia managed just one sack against Eli Manning.

    Manning will capitalize on his rushing attack and convert third downs, which is what he does best. Plaxico Burress is out, of course, but he was a non-factor in the last meeting, catching only one ball for 17 yards. Manning has plenty of other weapons to work with, including Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, Ward and the emerging Domenik Hixon.

    RECAP: As I said earlier, Reid is good for one thing - getting his team up to play as a huge underdog. As you can see below, Reid is 8-3 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more since his second year with the team. I don't know how he does it, but Reid gets his squad to play hard when everyone is doubting them.

    Some recent examples include:

    1. The Patriots were huge favorites in the Super Bowl. The Eagles lost by just three points despite the fact that McNabb had morning sickness in the fourth quarter.

    2. New England was a colossal favorite on a Sunday night last year. Philadelphia nearly pulled the upset.

    3. In Week 2 of this season, everyone thought the Cowboys would debacle the Eagles. That game came down to the final seconds.

    You can't ignore the fact that the Eagles have a tendency to cover large spreads, and I believe they'll do that here as well. I can't advise laying multiple units on them, however, because the Giants have been debacling everyone this year. They've covered their last seven games.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    See how hard the Eagles played on Thanksgiving? This is their season right here.

    Steve Spagnuolo coached the Eagles in 1999-2006.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    This line dropped from -9 to -7. Weird? Not really. The public hasn't pounded the Giants like the books expected, so they could afford to lower the spread.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 72% (151,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Giants have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Eagles are 52-33 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 22-15 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Andy Reid is 8-3 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.
  • Giants are 12-16 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 28 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -9.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Snow showers, 38 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Eagles 17
    Eagles +6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 42 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Eagles 20, Giants 14



    Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (11-1)
    Line: Titans by 14. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Titans -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Titans -17.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Browns: OUT: QB Brady Quinn (IR), QB Derek Anderson (IR), WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), TE Kellen Winslow Jr.*, OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). Titans: OUT: CB Reynaldo Hill, CB Eric King.

    I predicted that Vegas would recoup some of their winnings after Black Friday. In total, Vegas went 7-7, so that's a winning week for them because they get the juice and some money from teasers/parlays. Also, a lot of games went Under, so that's also a surplus.

    However, it wasn't a huge weekend. Expect some more larcenous activity (like Indianapolis-Cleveland) next weekend. Avoid publicly backed teams. Here's the Week 13 NFL Vegas Money Breakdown.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns covered a very shady, turnover-filled game against the Colts, but without Derek Anderson and Kellen Winslow Jr., things will be much more difficult this week.

    With Ken Dorsey at quarterback, Cleveland's offense will essentially mirror Cincinnati's, save for the offensive line. Think about it - the Browns have a legit No. 1 receiver in Braylon Edwards (T.J. Houshmandzadeh), an under-used No. 2 wideout in Donte' Stallworth (Chad Ocho Cinco), absolutely no running game because Jamal Lewis sucks (Cedric Benson) and a quarterback who can do nothing but throw checkdowns (Ryan Fitzpatrick).

    Dorsey has been around the league for a while, so it's not like he won't know what he's doing. Dorsey does one thing well, and that's get rid of the ball quickly. That could work to Cleveland's advantage to keep Tennessee's defense honest.

    Unfortunately, this dink-and-dunk junk tends to stall in the red zone, and fail once the team falls behind. Something tells me Cleveland won't be ahead.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If the Titans are completely focused, they shouldn't have a problem scoring. They'll be able to establish Chris Johnson and LenDale White versus Cleveland's 26th-ranked defense.

    With the ground game working, Kerry Collins should have all the time in the world to locate his receivers amid a porous Browns secondary. Cleveland's pedestrian 15-sack pass rush won't get past Tennessee's stout offensive front.

    RECAP: Is there a less enticing game on the board in terms of betting? You might as well burn your money if you back Dorsey. And laying 13.5 points with the Titans can't be a good idea; excluding their victory against the Lions (because as Chris Berman said, stats against the Lions should not count), the last time the Titans won by at least two touchdowns is Oct. 19.

    Tennessee obviously doesn't need to win this contest. They're a billion games ahead of everyone in the AFC, and they just rebounded off their first loss, so they have nothing to prove by beating Cleveland. The Browns, meanwhile, are playing hard for Romeo Crennel.

    I wouldn't bet this game, but with a gun to my head, I'd take the points. The Titans simply have no motivation here.


    The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
    Say what you want about the Browns - they're playing hard for Romeo Crennel. The Titans, meanwhile, don't need a win in this contest.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    With tons of cash on the Titans, this line has dropped from -14 to -13.5.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 87% (158,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Browns.
  • Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 5-12 ATS in 2008.
  • Opening Line: Titans -14.
  • Opening Total: 36.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 39 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Browns 17
    Browns +14 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 37 (.5 Units) -- Push; -$5
    Titans 28, Browns 9





    Atlanta Falcons (8-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-6)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: 51.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Saints -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Pick.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Falcons.
    Injuries: Falcons: OUT: OT Sam Baker, CB Von Hutchins (IR). Saints: OUT: RB Aaron Stecker (IR), TE Jeremy Shockey, TE Mark Campbell (IR), DE Charles Grant (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Mike McKenzie (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), CB Aaron Glenn (IR), S Kevin Kaesviharn (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR).

    College Football Notes:

    What else could I talk about besides Oklahoma-Texas? I was actually rooting for the Sooners to get the Big XII Championship bid. Not that I think they deserve it; the Longhorns should be playing for the right to go to the title game. I just think Oklahoma going over Texas will bring us one step closer to having a college playoff system, which is something everyone wants, save for the greedy college presidents, including Graham Cocker Spanier, perhaps the ugliest man who has ever lived.

    At any rate, I thought J.A. Adande said something really profound on Around the Horn. He opined that the idiots who believe the college football regular season is essentially a playoff were proven wrong. In a playoff, if you beat a team, you're supposed to advance past them. Texas defeated Oklahoma on a neutral site. They should be in the Big XII Championship.

    Unfortunately, the bottom line is that we won't have a playoff system unless these greedy people begin losing money. So, I implore you to refrain from watching any bowl games. In fact, don't even call them bowl games. Call them winter practice games. Tell your friends to do so as well. Or you could just pray that Barack Obama debacles all the greedy college presidents with his iron fists of fury.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Luckily, NFL teams get an opportunity to play for a spot in the postseason. The Saints, however, failed when given the opportunity, as Drew Brees threw a few untimely picks at Tampa Bay.

    Brees hasn't been very successful on the road this year, but he has thrived at the Super Dome. You could point out that he compiled 422 yards and two touchdowns at Atlanta, but most of that yardage came in the fourth quarter when the Falcons had a pretty big lead. Brees also tossed three interceptions in the 34-20 defeat.

    Though Atlanta is 27th versus the rush, the Saints won't be able to run the ball well, as their rushing attack hasn't been successful all season. Everything will fall on Brees' shoulders again. Like I said, he'll have more success at home, but the Falcons secondary has been playing extremely well lately.

    It should be noted that Reggie Bush will get more action, but until I see that he can play a full game, I'm not going to factor him into my write-ups.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has been on fire, so it shouldn't be a shock that the Saints couldn't stop him in their previous meeting. Ryan went 16-of-23 for 248 yards and two touchdowns versus New Orleans' porous secondary.

    The Saints failed to sack Ryan, and with Will Smith suspended for this contest, the hot rookie signal caller will once again have a clean pocket to throw out of.

    With Ryan presumably debacling the Saints defensive backfield, New Orleans won't be able to concentrate on Michael Turner, who came close to the 100-yard barrier against New Orleans in the first meeting.

    RECAP: I don't know how the Saints can get up for this game. You could point out that this is a divisional rivalry. However, New Orleans needed a victory to keep its season alive last week. The team put everything on the line at Tampa Bay, but just came up a bit short. With its season essentially over, how can the Saints come back just six days later and bring 110 percent to the table?

    Oh, and don't forget that the Falcons are the better team. I was burnt going against Ryan last week. I'm not making the same mistake again.


    The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
    The Saints put everything on the line against the Buccaneers and came up short. Now, they have to come back home, and all they can do is play spoiler to Atlanta. I don't know if they'll have the energy for that.


    The Vegas. Edge: Saints. No surprise that people are backing the Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 66% (111,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Saints have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Matt Ryan is 8-4 as a starter (8-4 ATS).
  • Saints are 22-37 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Saints are 15-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Saints are 7-18 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Saints 31
    Falcons +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 51.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Saints 29, Falcons 25



    Houston Texans (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-7)
    Line: Packers by 6. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Packers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Ahman Green (IR), RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis. Packers: OUT: DT Justin Harrell, ILB Nick Barnett (IR). QUESTIONABLE: S Atari Bigby, S Aaron Rouse.

    If you haven't seen it yet, I have Weekly Fantasy Rankings up each Thursday, so you can see whom I think you should start between two players you're deciding on.

    I hope this is more informative than the NFL Network's fantasy segment. Seriously, they spend like five minutes each week talking about fantasy football. They said Adrian Peterson's stock is up (thanks for the tip), and then Jamie Dukes, who looked like he wanted to eat his two co-hosts, told the audience that "you must start Frank Gore and Michael Turner."

    Really, Jamie? I was actually thinking about going with Antonio Pittman and Rock Cartwright, but if you say Gore and Turner are "must starts," then by golly, I'm going to put them in my starting lineup.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: One player who needs to be in your fantasy lineup this week is Steve Slaton. If the Packers couldn't stop DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart from gashing them for 130 yards and four touchdowns, I don't see how they'll be able to contain Slaton.

    Of course, the big plays killed Green Bay last week. Steve Smith had two long receptions, which set up a pair of Williams one-yard runs. The Packers had so many injured players in their secondary that Charles Woodson had to play strong safety. The availability of Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse is still in doubt, which means that containing Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels could be extremely difficult.

    As for Houston's quarterback situation, it appears as though Matt Schaub will start this game. That's great news for Houston bettors; they won't have a heart attack every time Sage Rosenchoker throws the ball.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ryan Grant hurt his thumb last week, so it's unclear if he's going to play. It shouldn't really matter, however, as Brandon Jackson looked very capable against the Panthers, compiling 80 yards on just 11 carries. Besides, Houston is just 25th versus the rush.

    With Green Bay's ground attack working effectively, Aaron Rodgers will have a pretty easy time picking apart Houston's beleaguered secondary. You can't really blame Rodgers for his team's 5-7 record; he's doing a very good job commanding this offense. It's the defense that's letting him down.

    RECAP: Quite honestly, I don't like either side in this game. I think this line is perfect.

    If you like the Packers, you can argue that they'll cover because they need this game more, though that didn't exactly work last week. If you like the Texans, you can point to the fact that after their first Monday night games, the Browns and Bills went on consecutive covering streaks (though Buffalo had a week off last year).

    I suppose Houston wins the tie-breaker in that there is tons of action on Green Bay, yet this line dropped from -6.5 to -6. Vegas figures to recoup some of its recent losses this weekend, so I'd recommend staying away from publicly backed teams.

    PICK CHANGE (THURSDAY MORNING): Looking at the weather report, it's going to be 17 degrees and windy in Green Bay on Sunday. I seriously doubt a warm-weather Houston team will survive in those conditions.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers currently trail the Vikings by two games, but if they catch them and beat the Bears and Lions in the process, they'll have the tie-breaker. They still have a pulse, so this is do-or-die for them. Meanwhile, the Texans should have momentum off their Monday night victory.


    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    Interesting that with most of the action on the Packers, this line has dropped from -6.5 to -6.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (128,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Packers.
  • Winning Coach: Mike McCarthy is 3-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Texans are 11-21 ATS after a win (5-5 since 2007).
  • Packers are 12-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 17 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Texans 20
    Packers -5.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 47.5 (1 Units) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Texans 24, Packers 21





    Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
    Line: Colts by 13.5. Total: 41.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Colts -13.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Colts -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Kenny Irons (IR), G Andrew Whitworth (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR), CB Jonathan Joseph (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR), S Marvin White (IR). Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), G Ryan Lilja, C Jeff Saturday, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR).

    I have to talk about something that happened to me last weekend. I think you'll find this story both amusing and appalling. If you want to skip this and get to some football analysis, scroll down until you see CINCINNATI OFFENSE:

    I was at my cousin's party on Friday night. It was a pretty good time. Some hot girls. Some liquor. Some beer pong (though I lost two games in double overtime).

    However, around 2:30, I went to get some more beer for beer pong. To my disappointment, my cousin announced that we were out of beer. If I were sober, I would have found this strange, as there was a case full of beer 15 minutes ago. But whatever. Let's ignore that for a second.

    Because everyone was having a good time, I wanted to keep the party going. I told my cousin that I'd get someone to drive me to my house so I could bring more beer to the party. I thought this was a very honorable thing to do. Seriously, I should have been awarded some sort of medal for volunteering to do this. To my utter surprise, my cousin replied, "You can go get more beer, but if you come back with it, I'm not letting you in."

    Whoa, whoa, whoa. That's not a typo, and he wasn't joking. And no, I haven't invaded Terry Bradshaw's liquor cabinet recently.

    I repeated myself to be clear. He then told me the same exact thing. At that point, I was so confused that I tried to control his mind like Parkman from Heroes. To my extreme disappointment, this only made him angrier. Stupid lunar eclipse!

    I didn't know what to do. I searched feverishly for more alcohol. Once that failed, I tried to reason with my cousin. Nothing doing.

    At that point, my cousin asked me (and the people who weren't staying over) to leave. Even if I wanted to go - there were still people there I wanted to talk to - I was in no condition to drive. I understand that he wanted to go to bed, but I can't even count how many times I've let him sober up until 5, 6, even 7 a.m. after a party at my house. Yet, he's kicking people out around 3!? Unbelievable!

    To his disappointment, I stuck around for at least another hour. Like I said, I didn't want to crash into a telephone pole, a huge truck, or even worse, Sally Struthers.

    I'm still pretty pissed. The next morning, I realized that an entire case of beer disappeared in 15 minutes, despite the fact that half the guests left. I'm now convinced that he hid the beer to get people to leave. I have three problems with this:

    1) He barely had any beer of his own at the party. I brought a case of Coors Light. My friend Gary brought a case of Coors Light as well. My friend Ben brought a case of Corona. I can't believe he hid beer other people brought to the party!

    2) Why would you even have a party if you want to ruin everyone's time and kick people out early? I don't think I've ever kicked anyone out of my house (save for one person, but that's for another time).

    3) It was just a dick move.

    Anyway, other than that, awesome time. Let's get to some football analysis before I become even angrier and debacle my laptop.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I figured I'd post that story here because this game is pretty dull. Peyton Manning and his receivers could all do lines of coke in the locker room a few minutes before kickoff and still win this game by double digits, right?

    That's because the Bengals can't do anything on offense. They managed just one first down in the first 29 minutes of the Baltimore game. Without the left side of their offensive line, they could neither run block nor pass protect long enough for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    Things don't get any easier for the Harvard quarterback against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, though unlike last week, Cincinnati's ground attack could be successful; the injury-plagued Colts are just 23rd versus the rush. In fact, Indianapolis' defense is a welcome sight for Cedric Benson; he's had to battle the Steelers (second versus the run) and Ravens (3rd) the past two weeks.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Indianapolis' offense looked sharp against the Chargers, so what happened last week? The Colts failed to score an offensive touchdown, though they fumbled at Cleveland's 1, fumbled again at midfield and stalled in the red zone once.

    Believe it or not, the difference was the center position. Jeff Saturday missed his third game of the season, which is why Manning and Joseph Addai struggled. Don't believe me? Just check out the numbers. In the nine contests Saturday has played, Indianapolis has averaged 24 points per game. In the three he's missed? Just 13.7.

    With Saturday out again, look for Indianapolis to struggle offensively once again. Cincinnati's defense is much more formidable than Cleveland's. While neither can rush the passer, the Bengals are at least competent against the run (14th) and the pass (13th).

    RECAP: Here's a stat that may surprise you. Of Indianapolis' eight victories, only one has been by more than six points!

    Saturday's absence is a huge deal. Without him, I can't lay the points with the Colts.


    The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
    The Colts need to keep winning, but they're not desperate or anything.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    No one wants any part of the Bengals.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 79% (133,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Bengals.
  • Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 5-12 ATS in 2008.
  • Bengals are 4-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs under Marvin Lewis.
  • Opening Line: Colts -14.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Colts 17, Bengals 9
    Bengals +13.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 41.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Colts 35, Bengals 3





    Minnesota Vikings (7-5) at Detroit Lions (0-12)
    Line: Vikings by 10. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Vikings -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Vikings -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries: Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR). Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), WR Mike Furrey (IR), DE Jared DeVries (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR).

    I've endured some epic bad beats this year. You can look at the pair of Seneca Wallace backdoor touchdowns, but the two worst are unquestionably the blown Detroit cover despite its 17-0 lead, and the Sage Rosenchoker debacle against the Colts. I'm serious when I say that my heart jumped every time Rosenchoker threw the ball on Monday night. I really feel like an assault victim here. I can't lay multiple units without having my heart race and thinking I'm going to get screwed somehow. I wonder if there's some sort of bad-beat support group I can join.

    Well, I might need to after this game because I like one of these teams a lot. I won't give it away yet, but maybe you can figure out with this hint: They better not blow a 38-0 lead and lose 48-38!

    DETROIT OFFENSE: I told you... I'm going to be talking about Detroit's blown 17-0 lead for ages. This team really is ridiculous. Only the Lions could come up with a quarterbacking tandem of Daunte Culpepper and Drew Henson, and think they're in good shape. And by the way, does anyone else think that Henson gives the team a better chance than Culpepper?

    At any rate, Kevin Smith should struggle versus the NFC's top rush defense, correct? Well, that depends. Kevin and Pat Williams, known as the Williams Wall, have been suspended for taking StarCaps. They've filed an injunction, but it's unlikely that they'll have their suspensions temporarily lifted. If the Williams Wall is out, Smith should be able to churn out about 100 rushing yards versus a soft defensive interior, setting up play-action for Detroit's two crappy quarterbacks.

    If Smith can get going, Minnesota will have to pull one of the safeties up, giving Calvin Johnson more one-on-one opportunities. Speaking of which, why don't the Lions just throw deep to Calvin every time? At least the fans would be entertained.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Any sensible coach would know what to do here - give Adrian Peterson about 25-30 carries versus a defense that was just trampled by Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

    But this is Brad Clueless we're talking about here. Chances are, he'll "out-smart" the Lions and get Naufahu Tahi and Jeff Dugan involved early. That can't possibly end well.

    Minnesota's aerial attack figures to be successful on paper. The Lions can't really get to the quarterback (though rookie Cliff Avril has a pair of sacks in his last two games) or stop the pass. Detroit is dead last in that department. However, if we've learned anything this season, it's that you just can't trust Gus Frerotte. On Sunday night, Frerotte carelessly fired a ball into double coverage despite being up, 17-7. Frerotte does dumb stuff like this at least twice a week.

    RECAP: As I mentioned, I like the Lions a lot here. The Vikings are coming off a huge victory against the Bears. After this contest, they have the Cardinals, Falcons and Giants. They definitely watched how terrible Detroit was on Thanksgiving. They can't possibly take this team seriously.

    Meanwhile, the Lions have to be thinking that this is their best shot of winning their only game of the season. This is their penultimate home contest. They host the high-powered Saints in two weeks. Next Sunday, they have the Colts, and in Week 17, they travel to Lambeau, where they haven't won in ages.

    Detroit played Minnesota close the first time these two teams met. That was the game where Dan Orlovsky stepped out of the back of the end zone. I'm pretty confident Brad Clueless will screw this up and let the Lions hang around - and possibly win.

    FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE: The Williams Wall will play. That doesn't change this pick.


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Vikings just won a big game. After this easy contest, they have the Cardinals, Falcons and Giants, so this is a Breather Alert. Detroit, meanwhile, has only four more chances to avoid eternal embarrassment.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Why would anyone bet the Lions after their Thanksgiving disaster?
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 67% (77,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Lions.
  • Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 5-12 ATS in 2008.
  • History: Vikings have won 17 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Lions are 7-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Rod Marinelli.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 26
    Lions +10 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Over 45.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Vikings 20, Lions 16





    Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Chicago Bears (6-6)
    Line: Bears by 6.5. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bears -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bears -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR), CB Rashean Mathis (IR), P Adam Podlesh (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Fred Miller (IR), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), CB Nathan Vasher (IR), CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR).

    Hilarious moment on Monday Night Countdown: Steve Young was talking about the birth of his new child when he said the following, "The Monday night game was on in the corner; that was the terrestrial moment. The baby was the celestial moment."

    Huh? Way to use two SAT words incorrectly, Steve. The funny part was the confused look on Emmitt's face when Young said this. One can only imagine what Emmitt was thinking...

    "You have debacled my brain... and my minds."

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Speaking of debacled, Kyle Orton isn't himself. I know some Bears fans are blaming it on confidence, but keep in mind that he was supposed to be out for at least a month. Orton came back after missing just one week! Orton should be saluted for having the guts to play hurt, but he's not effective (though an Orton at 50 percent is better than a healthy Grossman).

    Luckily, Orton will be able to lean on his running game. Steve Slaton ran right through Jacksonville's anemic rush defense, now ranked 21st in the NFL. Matt Forte, who actually ran well versus Minnesota's stout front (22 carries, 96 yards), should easily break through the 100-yard barrier.

    Despite still being injured, Orton will be able to convert third-and-short situations, especially without any sort of pass rush breathing down his neck; the Jaguars don't have anyone with more than two sacks on the year.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball this season because of the massive injuries to the interior of their offensive line. Chicago's sixth-ranked rush defense looks like it'll pose more a problem, but keep in mind that nose tackle Dusty Dvoracek, who has been stout versus the run this season, is now out for the year.

    I'm still not sure if Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will be able to pound the ball effectively, but Dvoracek's injury definitely helps.

    With Chicago possibly having to commit another defender to the box, David Garrard will have an easier time picking apart Chicago's injury-ridden secondary. The Bears' mediocre pass rush has only 24 sacks on the season, so Garrard should have a clean pocket to throw out of for most of the game.

    RECAP: I can't advise laying more than a field goal with the Bears right now, given how poorly Orton is playing.

    By the way, if you watched SportsCenter after the Monday night game, Emmitt and Steve Young both called the Jaguars out for playing with a lack of effort. Jacksonville could be out to prove them wrong. I don't think the team quit; NFL players seldom give up because there's always a new contract to play for.

    The Jaguars stink, but historically, they've been great in an underdog role. Taking the points seems lucrative in this spot.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    After losing to the Vikings, the Bears need to win this game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were heavily criticized for not trying by Emmitt and Steve Young, so they could try to prove them wrong.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    No surprise that people are fading the Jaguars after Monday night's performance.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 81% (115,000 bets)


    The Trends: Edge: Jaguars.
  • Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 10-16 ATS since 2000.
  • Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-81 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Jack Del Rio 5-2).
  • Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Bears are 5-8 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -7.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 22 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Jaguars 17
    Jaguars +6.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 40 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Bears 23, Jaguars 10



    Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Dolphins at Bills, Chiefs at Broncos, Jets at 49ers, Rams at Cardinals, Cowboys at Steelers, Patriots at Seahawks, Buccaneers at Panthers





    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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