Week 12 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 83-75-2 (+$1,380)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 24, 4:20 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Denver Broncos (6-4)
Line: Broncos by 8.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Broncos -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Broncos -11.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Injuries: Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR). Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR).

Thanks to the Fat Man and the Ignorant 53, there are only two people left in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 9, It’s Coming, and very hot pictures of Claire. I like! Do you like!?

Denver is obviously in survivor consideration. I’ll break down my choices after going over this pick.

DENVER OFFENSE: No one outside of Oakland and Denver will get to see this game. On paper, it looks boring, but I want to see who wins the matchup between Nnamdi Asomugha and Brandon Marshall. Asomugha erased Steve Smith two weeks ago, so it’s conceivable that Marshall will be a non-factor in this contest.

Unfortunately for the Raiders, Jay Cutler has other weapons to work with. Eddie Royal continues to amaze. Despite being a mere rookie, Royal already has 56 receptions, 659 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Since the bye, he has 267 yards and two scores in just three contests, so he’s not cooling down. Meanwhile, Tony Scheffler, despite registering no catches last week, is getting healthier and can only be more effective as the season goes on.

The Broncos should be able to run the ball as well. On paper, it appears as though they couldn’t do anything on the ground last week, as Peyton Hills led all backs with 44 yards. However, Hillis, P.J. Pope and Tatum Bell all gained more than four yards per carry at Atlanta. The Raiders’ rush defense is just as bad as the Falcons’.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders are pretty lucky they returned a kickoff last week because they could barely do anything on offense, despite the fact that JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden were back in the lineup.

Fortunately for Oakland, Denver’s rush defense is a bit easier to work against than Miami’s. The Dolphins are 10th against the run, while the Broncos are a meager 29th.

With Justin Fargas poised for a solid outing, Russell will have an easier time throwing the ball. And it’s not like Denver’s secondary and pass rush are that imposing anyway.

RECAP: As favorites of 3.5 or more, the Broncos are 0-4 against the spread this year. The reason for that is simple – their defense sucks and keeps the opposing team in the game.

This contest means much more to Oakland than it does to Denver. First of all, the Raiders have to remember the 41-14 thrashing the Broncos gave them in Week 1. Second, Denver is two games up in the AFC West, so it’s not like they need a victory. And finally, after two tough road wins, the Broncos have this “easy victory” and then a battle with the Jets next week. They won’t be able to match Oakland’s intensity.

SURVIVOR PICK: I liked the Broncos and planned on using them until I realized that I still had the Steelers available. If you still have Pittsburgh, take them – this is their last easy game. Denver still has Kansas City and Buffalo at home. Chicago is also an option.

To clarify, I like Pittsburgh, Denver and Chicago in that order.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Broncos are now two ahead of the Chargers, so they don’t need this game. The Raiders will be trying their hardest to knock off their arch rival. Denver could be in a Sandwich Situation, coming off a win at Atlanta and looking ahead to playing the Jets.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

With tons of cash on the Broncos, this line has dropped from -10 to -9.5.

Percentage of money on Denver: 66% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Broncos have won 17 of the last 22 meetings (Raiders 4-1 ATS since 2006).

Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 1-12 ATS in 2008. ???

Road Warrior: Coaches are 122-81 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996.

Broncos are 6-21 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 5-9 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Broncos -10.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 23
Raiders +8.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Raiders 31, Broncos 10

Carolina Panthers (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Falcons -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Falcons -1.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR). Falcons: OUT: OT Sam Baker, CB Von Hutchins (IR).

I hate the Country Music Awards. Not that I hate country music or anything, but ABC had to postpone Dirty Sexy Money and Pushing Daisies, two of my favorite shows, so they could televise it. This got me thinking – do people even like country music? I mean, there might be two or three people in this nation who do. Maybe five. But that’s gotta be it, right?

If a country music awards show can be on TV, why not other music genres? Why no love for the polka? Or what about Peruvian flute music? I want ABC to televise the Peruvian Flute Music Awards, damn it – just as long as it’s not on Wednesday!

While ABC should apologize to me for not televising those shows, I should apologize to you for not knowing last week’s Jaguars-Titans game was moved to 4:15. I never caught it, so it was in the wrong place in the NFL Picks section. I did manage to notice the time change here though, so I feel a bit better about myself.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of change, what is going on with Jake Delhomme? Delhomme was doing a great job of proving me wrong from Weeks 1-8. I thought he would struggle coming off Tommy John surgery. I was pretty off – until the Panthers came out of their bye.

Against the Raiders and Lions, ranked 18th and 31st against the pass, respectively, Delhomme is 17-of-46, 170 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. If you don’t have a calculator by your side, that’s a completion percentage of 37.0 and a YPA of 3.7 – Brad Johnson-type numbers.

Atlanta’s secondary has performed well at times this year, so I have to believe Delhomme will continue to struggle. However, Carolina will be able to run on the Falcons, who have the league’s 26th-ranked rush defense. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could eclipse the century barrier.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan played exceptionally well for a rookie in a big game last week. Sure, he threw a pick late in the contest, but he also had a decisive touchdown wiped out by a Roddy White drop in the end zone.

Ryan has a tough challenge against Carolina’s fourth-ranked pass defense. Luckily, Michael Turner will help Atlanta move the chains and open up some play-action opportunities for Ryan. Why do I like Turner in this matchup? Make sure you pick up this week’s USA Today Sports Weekly and check out Page 10 to see what I wrote.

RECAP: The Panthers have been awful since their bye. They’re very lucky they played two of the three worst teams in the league; otherwise, they would be 6-4 right now. I don’t think any team can flip the “on” switch just like that.

This is a huge statement game for the Falcons. They can let the league know they’re for real by beating the mighty 8-2 Panthers.

I also find it “strange” that Atlanta is favored here, yet people are betting on Carolina as if they know the final score of the game.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
Big game for both teams. This is a statement contest for Atlanta.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Betting on the “superior” Panthers to win this game seems a bit easy, doesn’t it?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 64% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Road Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Panthers are 26-17 ATS as an underdog the previous 43 instances.

Jake Delhomme is 22-6 ATS as an underdog in his career (WOW!).

Jake Delhomme is 18-9 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Jake Delhomme is 27-14 ATS on the road.

Matt Ryan is 4-1 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
Falcons -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 41.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Falcons 45, Panthers 28

New York Giants (9-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Giants -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Giants -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Injuries: Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree (IR), DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Plaxico Burress*. Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

The 11th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week.

Now, in Week 11, the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension! Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

Who would have ever thought that a Giants-Cardinals matchup would be the most anticipated game of the week? That’s how crazy the NFL has been this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I never thought Kurt Warner was done before his resurgence with the Cardinals. I always opined that I believed Warner could succeed on a team that offered really solid pass-blocking. Warner failed with the Giants and toward the end at St. Louis because neither squad protected him very well.

Warner has taken only 18 sacks this season. As a comparison, he was sacked 39 times in nine starts in New York. However, that could change this week, given that the Giants have the one of the league’s best pass rushes. It doesn’t matter how talented Warner’s wideouts are; if he doesn’t have time to throw, he transforms into a turnover machine.

Arizona’s offense will fall squarely on Warner’s shoulders because the team won’t be able to run the ball. The Giants are seventh versus the rush.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: This may surprise some people, but the Cardinals actually boast the league’s fifth-ranked run defense. That’s why I considered them as an underrated squad in the front page of my NFL Picks section.

That said, don’t expect Arizona to shut down Earth, Wind and Fire. Baltimore was ranked first versus the rush last week. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw debacled the Ravens, who are now down to fourth in that category.

Eli Manning’s production hasn’t been off the charts lately, but he’s doing a great job of converting third downs when the Giants need him to – which is precisely what he did in the Super Bowl. As we’ve seen this season, Arizona’s secondary can be beaten.

RECAP: Look, there’s no doubt that the Giants are the superior squad in this matchup. That’s obvious. But the best team doesn’t always win (or cover). For proof, look at what happened in the Giants-Browns Monday night game about a month ago.

The NFL is all about betting on good spots and fading bad ones. This is a bad spot for the Giants.

Whom do you think this contest means more to? The Giants are fat and happy at 9-1, looking down at the entire NFC. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are determined to prove that they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders. No one believes in Arizona. Whether it’s fans or the talking heads on TV, everyone simply shrugs them off and argues that their success is solely a product of the NFC West’s ineptitude.

This is an emotional contest for the Cardinals, who have turned into a cover machine at home under Ken Whisenhunt. The Giants, on the other hand, are walking into a death trap after flying across the country.

Let’s fade the public and go with the juiced Cardinals. This received some 5-unit consideration, but I wouldn’t recommend betting that much against the league’s best team.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

This contest doesn’t matter to the Giants. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could prove to the nation just how good they are by beating the Giants. Huge statement game.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

People may like the Cardinals, but the Giants are playing at another level, and people know this.

Percentage of money on New York: 91% (151,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Giants are 18-5 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.

Cardinals are 6-0 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Giants 24
Cardinals +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Giants 37, Cardinals 29

Washington Redskins (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (2-8)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Redskins -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Redskins -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR). Seahawks: OUT: WR Deion Branch*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “The head coach is a very good guy, and sometime good guys don’t finish first.” (Commentary: And sometime, you should not use clich�s if you don’t know them.)

2. “There is no way they should allow the Redskins to be them the way that they did.” (Commentary: Worst. Sentence. Ever. Seriously, my dog could put together a more coherent sentence.)

3. “But when you look at their offense, both offensive line… line… for both teams are fairly mediocre. They pretty much weak.” (Commentary: Poor Emmitt had two stabs at pluralizing the word “line” but just couldn’t get there. Luckily, scoring touchdowns was much easier.)

While the Giants-Cardinals tilt is definitely going to be the game everyone gets to see on FOX, the original plan was to air this contest. Once again, it’s crazy how everything can change in the span of a couple of months.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Everyone was surprised by how poorly Matt Hasselbeck played last week. Hasselbeck completed 17-of-29 pass attempts and threw a touchdown, but was also responsible for three interceptions and a fumble. It’s almost as if people expected Hasselbeck to just come off a nasty back injury and dominate once again. So much for that.

Last week, I wrote that Hasselbeck would struggle in his first outing and improve rapidly from then on. I’m not standing by that statement anymore, simply because Hasselbeck suffered a concussion on Sunday, and for some reason was allowed to address the media afterward. Per many reports, Hasselbeck appeared lost and couldn’t answer most of the questions. I have to really question what the Seahawks were thinking by allowing their quarterback to attend the post-game press conference.

Coming off a concussion, don’t count on Hasselbeck reverting to his former self. He won’t get anything accomplished against a sound Washington secondary. Meanwhile, Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will continue to suck.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Everyone was also shocked that Clinton Portis played a lot last week. He carried the ball 15 times for 68 yards – not bad, considering that all the media outlets suggested that Ladell Betts would shoulder all of the workload.

Having Portis even healthier will help tremendously. The Seahawks are 14th versus the rush, but their real weakness is their anemic secondary. With Portis in the backfield, Seattle will have to focus on stopping him, allowing Jason Campbell to torch the opposing defensive backfield.

RECAP: I hate that the public is pounding the Redskins, though it should be noted that this line isn’t shady or anything. If Arizona was -3 last week, Washington should be -3.5.

If there wasn’t so much action on the Redskins, I’d actually consider this my November Pick of the Month. I love Washington in this spot for three main reasons:

REVENGE: The Seahawks beat Washington in the playoffs last year. This is a huge revenge game for the visitor.

ALMOST A MUST-WIN: I wouldn’t call this a desperate must-win situation, but it’s close. If Washington falls to 6-5, it’ll have tremendous difficulty making the playoffs. It won’t be impossible, but its chances will significantly decrease.

FORMER COACH: Jim Zorn coached the Seahawks for seven seasons. Coaches going against their former team have an enormous advantage because they know all of the personnel and can devise a perfect game plan.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

Jim Zorn coached the Seahawks from 2001 to 2007.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No one wants anything to do with the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Washington: 92% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Hometown Hero: Mike Holmgren is 5-1 ATS at home immediately following a home loss.

Redskins are 9-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Seahawks 17
Redskins -3 (4 Units) — Push; -$40
Over 40 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Redskins 20, Seahawks 17

Indianapolis Colts (6-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)
Line: Chargers by 2.5. Total: 49.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Colts -1.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Colts -2.5.

Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever. The good news is that Bo-Bo remembered to start Terrell Owens this week. The bad news is that Owens scored just three points for him. Poor Bo-Bo didn’t get any help from Laveranues Coles (3 points), Derrick Ward (9), Tim Hightower (3) and Marcedes Lewis (1). With an 82-51 loss, Bo-Bo has fallen to 2-9. Everyone else in the league has at least 800 fantasy points on the year. Bo-Bo has 750. But this doesn’t matter to Bo-Bo because he’s too busy having sex with 3.6 million girls at once, and using his time machine to buy up property from cavemen in the pre-historic era.

This is the other game that is getting strong November Pick of the Month consideration (Lions-Buccaneers). I like the Chargers a lot, and I’ll discuss why after the matchups.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: LaDainian Tomlinson ran for just 57 yards last week, but he actually looked really good making cuts and eluding Pittsbugh’s linebackers. I think that bodes really well for this matchup, as the Colts just surrendered approximately five billion rushing yards to Steve Slaton on Sunday.

Tomlinson will breeze through one of the league’s worst rush defenses, setting up play-action opportunities for Philip Rivers. Kerry Collins, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger and Sage Rosenchoker passed all over Indianapolis’ secondary the past four weeks, so the Colts won’t be able to put up much resistance against Rivers and his myriad of weapons. Rivers will have ample time to throw, as Indianapolis’ pass rush has a meager 14 sacks on the year.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While Tomlinson seems to be improving, Peyton Manning also looks like he has gotten everything together.

The Colts couldn’t shake the Texans on the scoreboard last week, but that’s because of numerous drops by Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes and some of the receivers. The important thing is that Manning was sharp, going 30-of-46 for 320 yards and two touchdowns.

While Manning has perennially struggled versus tough 3-4 defenses, the Chargers’ stop unit hasn’t nearly been as effective without Shawne Merriman. Manning won’t be pressured much Sunday night, allowing him to hook up with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and the like. It should surprise no one that San Diego can’t play the pass well this year.

RECAP: As mentioned, I like San Diego for a number of reasons. I’ll go over them.

DESPERATION: I talked about how the Redskins are in a near must-win situation this week. Well, the Chargers are much more desperate. At 4-6, they still have a shot at the playoffs because the Broncos are only two games ahead of them, and they have a rematch with Denver later in the year. However, the Broncos are sure to beat Oakland, which would leave San Diego three behind its divisional foe if it loses this contest.

PUBLIC BETTING: Not a huge factor, but about three-quarters of the action is on the Colts. Given that Vegas has suffered two consecutive losing weeks, most of the publicly faded teams could cover this week.

BETTER THAN YOU THINK: Most people are betting Indianapolis because they think the Colts are better than San Diego. Why is that? Because Indianapolis just beat the Texans and Steelers, thanks to Ben Roethilisberger’s two unforced interceptions? The Chargers, meanwhile, are really underrated. Five of their six losses have been by a touchdown or less. Three of their six losses by just two points or less!

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION: In my opinion, these teams are pretty even, so the Chargers get the tie-breaker because the Colts just traveled all the way to the West Coast for this game.

Going from Indianapolis to San Diego may not seem that arduous, but the fact remains that the Colts are 0-3 against the spread on the West Coast under Tony Dungy. Meanwhile, San Diego is 6-1 versus the number since 2004 when playing at home after an East Coast road trip.

RECAP NO. 2: After some deliberation, I’ve decided to go with the Lions as my November Pick of the Month. Yes, the Lions. I feel that out of all the angles I’ve given you, the former coach trend is the strongest. Plus, it’s never fun to bet against Manning. San Diego is still a 5-unit selection.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

San Diego’s season is on the line. They need this win. The Colts are pretty safe right now, even if they fall to 6-5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Not surprising that the public likes the Colts over the 4-6 Chargers.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 71% (131,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Colts are 30-21 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Tony Dungy is 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) on the West Coast as Colts head coach.

Chargers are 10-5 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Chargers are 6-1 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Colts 24
Chargers -2.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 49 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Colts 23, Chargers 20

Green Bay Packers (5-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Line: Saints by 1. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Saints -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Saints -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: DT Justin Harrell, ILB Nick Barnett (IR). Saints: OUT: RB Aaron Stecker (IR), TE Jeremy Shockey, DE Charles Grant (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Mike McKenzie (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 12 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Trent Edwards, Marv Levy and the Crypt Keeper.

Green Bay’s 37-3 debacling of the Bears was not a fluke. Chicago and Minnesota fans may not want to hear this, but when healthy, the Packers are one of the top teams in the league. Three of Green Bay’s losses have come by a field goal. Those defeats were against the Falcons (with Al Harris out), Titans and Vikings; the latter two coming on the road. Another loss, at Tampa Bay, was the result of Aaron Rodgers getting hurt.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Rodgers was 23-of-30 for 227 yards, two touchdowns and a pick against Chicago, but that wasn’t the big news for the Packers. That happened to be Ryan Grant’s performance. Grant rushed for 145 yards and a score on one of the top rush defenses in the league.

Grant, who was hurt earlier in the year, is now completely healthy. He looked solid versus the Titans and Vikings, but no one expected a 145-yard outburst on Sunday. He should be able to break through for another 100-yard performance versus New Orleans’ 18th-ranked rush defense. Remember, he tallied 145 yards against Chicago (6th), and came close to 100 yards on Minnesota (3rd) and Tennessee (8th).

With Grant trampling the Saints’ defensive front, Rodgers will have an easy time locating Greg Jennings and Donald Driver downfield. New Orleans’ secondary is abysmal, now that Mike McKenzie and Tracy Porter are out for the year.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s a shame the Saints didn’t catch the Packers when Al Harris was out of the lineup. Without Harris, Green Bay had tons of trouble versus the pass.

The Packers have a pretty good matchup here. Their weakness is their run defense up the middle, yet the Saints don’t have a strong power rushing attack. Deuce McAllister is worthless; Pierre Thomas is mediocre; and Reggie Bush could be limited coming off an injury.

That said, it’s not like the Packers are going to completely shut down the Saints. That’s impossible. Drew Brees and his receiving corps are just that good. But Green Bay should be able to force New Orleans into enough punts to come away with a victory.

RECAP: Damn you, public! Why do you have to like Green Bay as well!?

I’m taking the Packers despite all the cash on them. The good news is that Vegas moved this line off key -3 to compensate for public money. Still, I’d be careful with this one.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
The Saints probably need this a bit more, but neither squad wants to fall to 5-6.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Everyone loves the publicly backed underdog Packers on Monday night. I can’t blame them after last week’s blowout over the Bears.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 74% (187,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Saints are 21-37 ATS at home since 2001.

Saints are 14-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Saints 30
Packers +1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 51 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Saints 51, Packers 29

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bengals at Steelers, Vikings at Jaguars, Bills at Chiefs, Patriots at Dolphins, Buccaneers at Lions, Jets at Titans, Bears at Rams, Eagles at Ravens, Texans at Browns, 49ers at Cowboys

Printable version of Week 12 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Bears -1.5, Titans +0.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Live Dog: Texans +140 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$140

Live Dog: Chiefs +150 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Vikings +115 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$115

Live Dog: Cardinals +145 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschology Parlay: Vikings +2.5, Lions +8, Ravens -1.5, Raiders +9, Cardinals +3, Redskins -3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)