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Week 7 NFL Picks



NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 5:10 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks - Late Games



San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 44.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Bills -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Bills -2.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Bills: OUT: OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), CB Terrence McGee.

I'd be crazy to complain about my Week 6 results. I went 9-5, hitting every play I had above two units, including my October NFL Pick of the Month, as Arizona upset Dallas in the Desert. The other game I considered as my Pick of the Month, San Diego -5 over New England, also hit. I'd love to win another 22 units this week, but that's probably unrealistic.

But hey, let's try for similar results, starting with this game. I love Buffalo here for three reasons, which I'll get to after the matchups.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chargers have major problems stopping the run. The Patriots couldn't expose this because their offensive line is too dinged up and Sammy Morris isn't an effective back.

Marshawn Lynch is. Lynch will rip through a San Diego front seven that surrenders 4.4 yards per carry, setting up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Trent Edwards. Edwards should be able to hit Lee Evans deep on at least one occasion.

Establishing the run is extremely vital for Buffalo; the team has allowed 16 sacks this season, and even though Shawne Merriman is out, the Chargers still specialize in getting to the quarterback (17 sacks). Edwards could get killed in third-and-long.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: LaDainian Tomlinson isn't the same player because of his toe injury. John Madden pointed it out on Sunday night; LT2 just can't make the same cuts anymore.

That bodes well for the Bills, who are 12th versus the run. They should be able to contain Tomlinson to less than four yards per rush, making things more difficult for Philip Rivers. Rivers won't be able to repeat his Sunday night performance; unlike New England, the Bills' secondary is young and talented. The Patriots' defensive backfield is comprised of 80-year-old men who belong in a retirement home. Deltha O'Neal? Are you kidding me? Was Bill Belichick smoking crack instead of signing talented players this offseason?

RECAP: I love the Bills for three reasons. I'll go over them.

1. Jet Lag: This is the second time the Chargers have to travel to the East Coast to play a 1 p.m. game. Pacific squads usually struggle in early games on the Atlantic Coast, but seldom do they have to fly cross-country twice in three weeks!

2. Awful Spot: The Chargers just played their most important regular-season game of the year. They had to slay the Patriots, who knocked them out of the playoffs two years in a row. It was also a must-win situation for them, as they were two games behind Denver in the AFC West.

Coming off that victory, I can't see San Diego matching that same intensity it played with against New England.

Additionally, guess what the Chargers have next week? Their game in England against the Saints! So, after this contest, which isn't as important because Denver is only one up in the AFC West, San Diego has to pack its bags and travel across the pond. How can they possibly muster enough energy to beat one of the best teams in the league?

3. Statement Game: Meanwhile, this is a statement game for the Bills. They're home underdogs here, so that says the general public doesn't believe in them. People definitely will if they beat the Chargers. Buffalo had a statement victory in Week 2 at Jacksonville, but has since floundered against inferior competition. A win here would be huge for the Bills.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
I don't get how the Chargers are supposed to get up for this game. They just won the most important game on their schedule, claiming double revenge against New England in a must-win situation. Now, they have to travel cross-country to Buffalo right before playing a contest in London against the Saints.


The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
The Chargers are a public team. No surprise that they're getting the money. What's "strange" is that the line is moving in Buffalo's favor.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 63% (176,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bye Bye: Dick Jauron is 2-0 ATS off a bye.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-41 ATS since 2002 (Norv Turner 4-4).
  • Bills are 15-10 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron. ???
  • Bills are 15-7 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -1.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Chargers 14
    Bills -1 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 44 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Bills 23, Chargers 14



    San Francisco 49ers (2-4) at New York Giants (4-1)
    Line: Giants by 10.5. Total: 46.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Giants -14.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Giants -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR). Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree, DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes.

    After suffering major losses in Week 5, Vegas struck back with a vengeance, running away with the public's money. Massively backed favorites, including Washington, Chicago and Carolina won in the early afternoon. After splitting the 4 p.m. games (Philadelphia covering hurt the books; Arizona winning helped them a lot because that broke up many teasers), the oddsmaker once again collected on Sunday night, as New England, a public dog, was completely "debacled" by the Chargers. Monday night was even better for the house. With 75 percent of the public on the Giants, the books cleaned up with Cleveland's straight-up victory.

    Speaking of the Giants, I'm shocked I didn't get any flack for keeping them No. 1 in my NFL Power Rankings. I still think they're the best team in the league; every squad in the NFL eventually loses, and New York simply ran into a Cleveland buzz saw. The Browns desperately needed a win in a revenge situation.

    So, can the Giants bounce back? According to the matchups, most definitely.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We all know Mike Martz doesn't know how to protect the quarterback. Well, that doesn't bode well for J.T. O'Sullivan and his organs, as the Giants have one of the top defensive lines in all of football. They'll sack O'Sullivan into oblivion. It wouldn't shock me if Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka combined for eight sacks in this contest.

    Even if Martz decides to run the ball on occasion, he won't have much luck. Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins are too dominant inside, and are responsible for the Giants' 11th ranking against the rush.

    I think we've established that Martz is an imbecile, correct? Despite the fact that last week's Eagles-49ers game was pretty close throughout, Gore only received 19 carries. It's not like he was bottled up either; he eclipsed the 100-yard mark. Until the 49ers fire Martz, they'll never maximize their offensive potential.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress will rebound off a poor performance, and I can't see San Francisco's very mediocre defense putting up much resistance.

    San Francisco is 16th against the run and 20th versus the pass, so it won't have much luck containing Jacobs or Manning's wideouts.

    The 49ers don't have a terrible pass rush or anything - 13 sacks on the year - but I doubt they'll be able to rattle Manning, who has been sacked just six times. San Francisco just doesn't have the defensive talent to prevent the Giants from scoring on a consistent basis.

    RECAP: If the Giants had beaten the Browns on Monday night, this would have been a really terrible spot for them, seeing as how they have the Steelers, Cowboys and Eagles on the horizon. However, they should be focused after getting "blowed out."

    There are tons of trends listed below, and some negate each other, but I feel as though the most significant one is the Early Game Alert. The 49ers have been miserable on the East Coast under Mike Nolan. One of those seven spread losses occurred last year at the Giants.

    Talk about coincidence - the 49ers traveled to the Meadowlands in Week 7 last season. They were 9.5-point dogs. And they were playing the Giants, who were coming off a Monday night game (albeit a win). The score of the New York-San Francisco battle? Giants 33, 49ers 15. Am I supposed to believe that Martz and his flawed protection schemes are supposed to change this result? Please.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Definitely would have been a Breather Alert for the Giants if they were coming off a win. They have the Steelers, Cowboys and Eagles after this "easy" contest, but need to bounce back after a blowout loss.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    This line opened at -10.5 and dropped to -10, inducing more action on the Giants. It was 50-50 before.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 80% (150,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-41 ATS since 2002 (Mike Nolan 1-7).
  • Winning Coach: Tom Coughlin is 4-1 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.
  • Monday Misery: Tom Coughlin is 3-6 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Monday Misery: Coaches coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 14-26 ATS since 1999.
  • Giants are 9-16 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 25 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -12.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Giants 34, 49ers 6
    Giants -10.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 46.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Giants 29, 49ers 17



    Dallas Cowboys (4-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4)
    Line: Cowboys by 7.5. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Cowboys -9 (Romo).
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Cowboys -9 (Romo); Cowboys -4 (Johnson).
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: QB Tony Romo*, RB Felix Jones*, G Kyle Kosier, CB Pacman Jones (SUSP), S Roy Williams, P Mat McBriar (IR). Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Keenan Burton, TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Brandon Gorin (IR), Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr. (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Orlando Pace.

    In case you haven't heard, the Cowboys acquired Roy Williams from the Lions for first-, third- and sixth-round picks. In other news, Jerry Jones was found doing LSD in his private office bathroom.

    What is Jones thinking? Williams is a good receiver, but he's not great. Giving up a second-rounder and a late selection would have been fair. A first and a third? Really? Did Jones really need another whining receiver who complains every time he doesn't get the ball enough? And by the way, what are the Cowboys going to do about their jersey situation? They have two players named Roy Williams. This alone should have been a sign for Jones not to pull the trigger on this deal.

    Meanwhile, the Lions made out like bandits. The trade is even sweeter when you consider that Matt Millen won't be around to draft crappy players with those picks.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Does Williams make Brad Johnson a better quarterback? Doubtful. But I don't expect Johnson to struggle here or anything. He's won a Super Bowl before, so unlike the Dan Orlovskys or Ryan Fitzpatricks of the NFL, he's at least competent enough to get the ball to his star players and move the chains.

    If the Cowboys can go 2-2 in Romo's absence, than the injury could actually be good for the team, as it will allow them to go back to the basics - running the ball with Marion Barber.

    As we all know, the Rams' defense is a joke. They're 30th against the rush and had no answer for Clinton Portis last week. Stopping Barber will be just as problematic for them.

    The reason St. Louis was able to hold Washington to 17 points was because of three crucial Redskins turnovers. I expect Johnson to be more careful with the ball. He'll capitalize off Barber's success and get the ball to Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton and Williams, beating the Rams' 31st-ranked secondary.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams scored 19 last week, but seven points came off a fumble returned for the touchdown.

    I don't expect St. Louis to put much on the board here. The Cowboys, who have 15 sacks on the year, will get to Marc Bulger early and often. The Rams' offensive line, which already sucks, could be without Orlando Pace, who injured his quad last week.

    RECAP: The trade for Williams shows how desperate Dallas is. Getting a win here is huge for them. Everyone on this team will bring maximum effort to the table with Romo out.

    A good NFL system is taking a good team that is missing its best player for the first game. Doing so usually produces a winner because the other 52 players rally and put forth more energy than the other squad.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Cowboys will bring 200-percent effort to the table with Tony Romo out.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    After early action on the Rams, the public now likes the Cowboys. This line moved from -6.5 to -7 though. It's now -7.5 in some places.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 83% (140,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Road Warrior: Coaches coming off a road loss are 113-77 ATS on the road since 1996.
  • Losing Coach: Wade Phillips is 0-2 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Cowboys are 7-3 ATS after a loss since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 41, Rams 7
    Cowboys -7.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 44 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Rams 34, Cowboys 14





    Tennessee Titans (5-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)
    Line: Titans by 9. Total: 35.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Titans -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Titans -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*.

    College Football Notes:

    1. Michigan lost to Toledo. In the words of Mike Patrick, "Holy, Toledo!" Seriously, how does this happen? How does a team get so bad in one year?

    2. The Big Ten Network sucks. I wanted to see Michigan get "debacled" by Toledo, but the station was televising Iowa-Indiana instead. The score of that game was 45-9. Idiots. Switch to a more competitive game for crying out loud!

    3. I'm still in love with Stacy Dales, but she has not accepted my marriage proposal yet. I keep showing up on her doorstep and snooping through her house, but she always keeps calling the cops on me. What's up with that?

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: According to the Kansas City Star, Brodie Croyle will start for the Chiefs this week. Unfortunately, per some reports, Croyle has been having timing issues during practice. Herm Edwards called Croyle "just rusty." Umm... are we sure he's just rusty, or is this because he sucks? I've never seen Croyle not have timing issues.

    How in the world is Larry Johnson going to run against the Titans? Johnson, who is over the hill, simply doesn't the blocking to get by Tennessee's stout rush defense.

    With Johnson running in mud, Croyle and his timing issues will be in tons of third-and-long situations. That's not good; Tennessee has 15 sacks on the year and is ranked second against the pass. This could be a long day for the Chiefs.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Titans excel against the run, the Chiefs are completely hopeless against it. They're ranked dead-last in the NFL, surrendering 5.5 yards per carry.

    Yup, that's right - 5.5 yards per carry against Tennessee's vaunted rushing attack. What could possibly happen?

    Chris Johnson and LenDale White will combine for at least 250 rushing yards, opening up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Kerry Collins. The Chiefs, owners of three sacks on the year, are 25th versus the pass anyway, so it's not like Collins will even need a solid ground attack by his side.

    RECAP: Easy win for Tennessee, right? "That's why they play the games!"

    I'm not sure how focused the Titans are going to be here. They have a HUGE game against the Colts on Monday night next week, and this contest doesn't really mean all that much to them, given that they're two games up on everyone in the AFC South.

    Herm Edwards usually thrives in these "Us Against the World" games. Remember, the Chiefs beat the Broncos straight up as massive home underdogs a couple of weeks ago. A similar result wouldn't shock me in the slightest. After all, this is the NFL. We just witnessed Dan Orlovsky hang with the Vikings on the road. Anything can happen. THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Larry Johnson is out for this game, but that doesn't alter my pick. Johnson sucks and Jamaal Charles is just as good, if not better.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    Very obvious Look-Ahead Alert for the Titans. Coming off a bye at 5-0, Tennessee has a big showdown against the Colts next week.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    The public likes the Titans and the line is rising in the team's favor.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 67% (182,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Chiefs are 15-7 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 2-7 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Titans -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 35.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Titans 16, Chiefs 12
    Chiefs +9 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 35 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Titans 34, Chiefs 10



    Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
    Line: Steelers by 9.5. Total: 34.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Steelers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Steelers -7.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    Injuries: Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR). Bengals: OUT: QB Carson Palmer*, RB Kenny Irons (IR).

    The YouTube Video of the Week: I haven't talked about the Madden video game much on this Web site. That's because I haven't played it since the 2005 edition. I loved the 2004 version (the one with Michael Vick on the cover), but the subsequent edition completely screwed up the kicking mechanic, and I couldn't make any field goals (or extra points for that matter), so I just gave up.

    At any rate, Madden has recently been known for its many glitches. Here's a collection of 15 Madden Glitch Videos. Not all of them are worth watching, but some are extremely hilarious. The best ones are: The Safety is Possessed; Magic Floating Football; Is This Intentional Grounding?; Rules? What Rules?; The Sideline First Down Marker; and of course, the Madden Ambulance.

    In case you haven't heard, Carson Palmer is once again out with an elbow injury. Regretfully, Ryan Fitzpatrick will start in his place.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Fitzpatrick, an awful offensive line and a non-existent running game versus Pittsburgh's defense and Dick LeBeau's blitzing schemes? Doesn't seem fair, does it?

    The Steelers and their third-ranked rush defense are going to completely shut down Chris Perry. Perry sucks. His rushing average is 2.6. He fumbles a lot. And he drops easy catches. I had him as a fantasy sleeper this preseason because I knew he would be Cincinnati's starting running back. Given that he's a former first-round pick, I thought he had talent. Apparently, I was dead wrong.

    Fitzpatrick in long-yardage situations against the Steelers and their 18 sacks... Is Fitzpatrick going to need the aforementioned Madden Ambulance?

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I have the Bengals as an underrated team in the front page of my Week 7 NFL Picks because of their defense. This would surprise a lot of people, but Cincinnati's stop unit isn't half bad. They're ranked 19th against the run and sixth versus the pass.

    With that in mind, how long can the Bengals hold up? Their offense is doomed to have at least half a dozen three-and-outs. Their stop unit can't bring 100-percent intensity for the entire game. They'll eventually get tired and break down, succumbing to Ben Roethlisberger and his arsenal of weapons.

    And while the Bengals' defense is OK, they don't put enough pressure on opposing passers; they have just five sacks on the year. Roethlisberger will have more than enough time in this game to find Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller downfield.

    RECAP: This is pretty similar to the Titans-Chiefs contest. Pittsburgh dominates this matchup on paper, but there are other factors involved.

    First of all, how focused are the Steelers going to be? They don't need a win, given that they're two games up on the Browns and Ravens. They could be preparing for their upcoming games against the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers.

    Second, as you can tell below, betting on winless teams is usually a good proposition.

    Third, like Herm Edwards, Marvin Lewis does an outstanding job getting his team up when it's a huge underdog.

    I wouldn't put more than a unit on the Bengals because Fitzpatrick is an abomination, but I think Cincinnati's the right side here.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Steelers don't really need to win this game. The Bengals want to break out of this 0-6 funk. Major Breather Alert for Pittsburgh. Following this "easy victory," the Steelers have the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers on their slate.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 63% (161,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-6 teams are 5-3 ATS since 2000.
  • Steelers are 23-8 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 48-18 as a starter (39-27 ATS).
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs under Marvin Lewis. ???
  • Opening Line: Steelers -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 20
    Bengals +9.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 34.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Steelers 38, Bengals 10





    Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
    Line: Bears by 3. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Bears -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Chris Williams, S Brandon McGowan (IR).

    Anyone who has ever tuned into Sunday's 10:30 edition of SportsCenter has seen ESPN's "expert" handicapper Hank Goldberg make his picks. As a reference, Goldberg had his best week of the season in Week 5, going 4-2, bringing his gaudy record up to 14-16. Ouch.

    At any rate, I really have to question Goldberg's picking strategy. He chose the Bears -3 over the Falcons because "Chicago always beats Atlanta" (ignoring the fact that they're not divisional rivals and they don't play every year.) He also liked the Texans -3 over the Dolphins because Miami has never beaten Houston. Look, every prognosticator has his bad weeks, but Goldberg's strategy has some serious flaws, as he's basing his selections over meaningless things that have happened in the past.

    The bottom line - Goldberg can't handicap his way out of paper bag. I can see it now: "Well, I've never gotten out of a paper bag before, so I'm going to say that I'll be trapped in the paper bag for three units."

    The home team has won 10 of the past 12 meetings, so chances are that Goldberg will pick Chicago to cover the field goal. Let's actually do some real handicapping, beginning with the matchups.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan threw for more than 300 yards on this defense, which was a major surprise to me at first. However, looking at what happened to Chicago's secondary, I can't say that I'm shocked now.

    The Bears were missing Nathan Vasher with a wrist injury going into the game. We knew that. However, Charles "Peanut" Tillman, the other starting corner, left the contest with a shoulder injury, and was seen with a sling around his arm. It's uncertain if he'll be able to play on Sunday. Meanwhile, backup corners Danieal Manning and Trumaine McBride also suffered injuries.

    Going against a skeleton-crew secondary, Ryan was uber impressive. Now, I don't want to take anything away from Ryan because he looks like the real deal. However, I can't imagine he would have had the same success going against Vasher and Tillman.

    Chicago's secondary is still beat up, so Gus Frerotte should be able to attack it with Bernard Berrian. The Bears won't be able to focus on their former teammate because they'll need to concentrate on stopping Adrian Peterson. They'll be able to do so, given that they're sixth versus the rush.

    The Bears absolutely need to get pressure on Frerotte because Brad Clueless hasn't heard of the screen pass. Chicago has only 12 sacks on the year (two per game), but they should be able to have some luck versus an offensive front that surrendered five sacks to the lowly Lions last week.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Vikings, the Bears will struggle to move the chains via the ground attack. Minnesota's defense specializes at stopping the run. Thanks to Pat and Kevin Williams, they're fourth against it.

    With Forte a non-factor, Kyle Orton will have to lead scoring drives on his own. This would have been a problem in the past, but Orton surprisingly has been really sharp this year. His completion percentage is 61.6; he has eight touchdowns to just four picks; and his YPA is a solid 7.0.

    Orton will be able to put together a few long drives against Minnesota's putrid secondary, unless Jared Allen and company can get to him often. The Vikings' front seven (14 sacks) matches up well against Chicago's offensive line (12 sacks allowed).

    RECAP: This is should be a pretty close game, and it could be decided by who's available in Chicago's banged-up secondary.

    Though Vegas set a just spread of three, the public is all over the Bears. Public perception is down on the Vikings, who luckily beat the Saints and then struggled against the Lions. However, I predicted that Minnesota would have a tough time with Detroit, as that game was a terrible spot for them (it was sandwiched between a tough Monday night victory and this contest).

    I like the Vikings, a slightly better team in my opinion, to bounce back with a close victory. The idea of buying low on Minnesota intrigues me.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game for both teams. Winner gains control of the NFC North.


    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    The Vikings have looked awful recently, so I can't imagine too many public bettors are going to put their hard-earned money on them.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 83% (157,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Winning Coach: Lovie Smith is 6-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Vikings are 6-8 ATS in outdoor games under Brad Childress.
  • Bears are 3-7 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 20
    Vikings +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 37.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Bears 48, Vikings 41







    New Orleans Saints (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (4-2)
    Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Panthers -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Panthers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    Injuries: Saints: OUT: TE Jeremy Shockey, DT Sedrick Ellis, DT Hollis Thomas (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR). Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR).

    Prior to last week's Sunday NFL Countdown, Merril Hoge was asked to give one player he'd sit in fantasy football. He chose Jay Cutler because opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 48 against the Buccaneers. I guess Kyle Orton's 268 yards and two touchdowns, as well as Drew Brees' 343 yards and three scores didn't matter all that much. It's all about the quarterback rating! Remind me never to join Hoge's league. He counts quarterback ratings, and you have to start one quarterback, two receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one defense and 12 factor backs.

    Twelve factor backs is actually realistic in today's NFL because teams like the Panthers and Saints utilize dual backfields, but still... being in a league with Hoge would totally suck. Could you imagine how much trash talking would go on every time he'd win a game? More on Hoge later.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of running backs, a huge surprise in recent weeks has been New Orleans' ability to stop the run. Against the Vikings, the Saints restricted Adrian Peterson to just 32 yards on 21 carries - a really amazing feat. Last Sunday, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas managed only 65 yards on 18 rushes - an average of 3.6 yards per attempt.

    I don't know how the Saints improved so dramatically against the run - they were in the bottom five just three weeks ago - but it certainly bodes well in this contest. Carolina loves to pound the rock with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. If New Orleans can continue to stop the rush, it'll force Jake Delhomme into long-yardage situations and perhaps more errant throws.

    Last week, Delhomme struggled without running support (Williams and Stewart combined for 39 yards). He barely completed 50 percent of his passes and he also tossed three picks. Now, I'm well aware that Tampa Bay's secondary is far superior than New Orleans', but I still wouldn't have faith in Carolina's ability to move the chains without Williams and Stewart tearing it up. Remember, the run defense-oriented Vikings contained the Panthers to just 10 points.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: With Tom Brady out and Peyton Manning iffy, Drew Brees is now the top quarterback in the league. He's thrown for at least 300 yards in all but one game this year, and he's currently on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season yardage record (5,084 in 1984).

    The Panthers are actually ranked first against the pass, which actually doesn't surprise me despite the fact that they have just 10 sacks. Just look at the quarterbacks they've gone up against the past five weeks: Damon Huard, Jeff Garcia, Matt Ryan, Gus Frerotte and Kyle Orton.

    Think Brees is a bit better than those guys? Carolina's secondary can't contain New Orleans' red-hot quarterback, especially with Marques Colston returning to the lineup. Keeping Reggie Bush from breaking one is also usually a tough proposition.

    RECAP: As Hank Goldberg would point out, the visitor usually dominates this series. I'm not judging my pick based solely on the fact, but I'm keeping it in the back of my head.

    I just think the Saints are the better team. They've been in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings for a reason. And historically, they've played well on the road.

    I know I'm going with the public here, but I believe New Orleans is the right side.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    It's hard to believe the Saints are in last place at 3-3. This is a huge NFC South game.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    After tons of early action on the Saints, everything's pretty much evened out. It's now at two-thirds toward New Orleans.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (166,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Road team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Saints are 40-27 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Saints are 25-17 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 27-17 ATS as a dog.
  • Panthers are 6-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Panthers are 17-25 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Jake Delhomme is 11-18 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -4.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Saints 20, Panthers 17
    Saints +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 44.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Panthers 30, Saints 7





    Baltimore Ravens (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
    Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6): Dolphins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6): Dolphins -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), TE Quinn "Miracle Man" Sypniewski (IR), OT Adam Terry, G Marshal Yanda (IR), DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Samari Rolle. QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee. Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR).

    Remind me never to listen to Matthew Berry ever again. Berry told us to start Matt Cassel and bench Philip Rivers in the Sunday night game. Whoops. What really pisses me off is that my opponent in my PPR League didn't listen to Berry. He went on and started Rivers, who scored like 50,000 points against me. Why would anyone recommend sitting any quarterback not named O'Sullivan, Fitzpatrick, Frye, Thigpen or Orlovsky against New England's abysmal secondary?

    Meanwhile, Merril Hoge, who really serves no purpose in Berry's segment, liked Greg Camarillo as a start because of Camarillo's route running. That's it. I'm going to start my own fantasy league next year. All the scoring will be traditional, but route running for receivers will be worth either six or eight points. I'm still deciding.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: Speaking of Camarillo, how pissed off were Ted Ginn and Anthony Fasano fantasy owners when Patrick Cobbs stole two touchdowns last week? I have Fasano in one of my leagues, and I was kicking and screaming like one of Chris Henry's 4-year-old drinking buddies.

    The Wildcat offense is a cool concept, but it's not really an "offense." It's more like a set of gimmicky plays. In Miami's victory over San Diego, the Dolphins ran it just 12 times for 48 yards.

    Miami has been able to win recently because of Ronnie Brown's running ability. Brown ate up the Patriots, Chargers and Texans, who are ranked 26th, 22nd and 17th versus the rush, respectively. Baltimore is first in that category, so don't expect Brown or Ricky Williams to do much.

    With Brown and Williams as non-factors, Chad Pennington will be responsible for moving the chains on his own. That's not promising against a rabid Ravens defense, looking to redeem itself after getting debacled by the Colts last week.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Of course, Baltimore's defense didn't have much of a chance because Joe Flacco and Le'Ron McClain were too busy tossing interceptions and fumbling the ball away. It shocked me that the Ravens didn't even try running the ball against the Colts. Doing so versus Miami's sixth-ranked rush defense will be a lot tougher.

    Miami's defensive weakness is its secondary, which is 29th against the pass. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they don't have the quarterback to take advantage of that. Flacco played relatively well at the beginning of the season, but has since regressed into a worse version of Kyle Boller.

    Troy Smith will eventually take over as the starting quarterback once he's healthy, but that may not be any time soon. Smith lost a lot of weight because of tonsillitis.

    RECAP: These teams seem pretty even, hence the 3-point spread. Both have tough defenses and run-based offenses that figure to struggle.

    However, there's one major edge in Baltimore's favor. Cam Cameron coached the Dolphins last year. Coaches going against their former team usually thrive because they know all the strengths and weaknesses of every player on their old squad.


    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    Ravens OC Cam Cameron coached the Dolphins in 2007.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    After equal action, people are now betting the Dolphins.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 68% (140,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Road Warrior: Coaches coming off a road loss are 113-77 ATS on the road since 1996.
  • Ravens are 12-21 ATS as an underdog the previous 32 instances (2-2 with John Harbaugh).
  • Ravens are 1-9 ATS on the road since 2007.
  • Chad Pennington is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -3.
  • Opening Total: 34.5.
  • Weather: Possible showers, 82 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 7 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Dolphins 16
    Ravens +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 36 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Ravens 27, Dolphins 13



    Week 7 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Lions at Texans, Colts at Packers, Jets at Raiders, Browns at Redskins, Seahawks at Buccaneers, Broncos at Patriots





    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks - Late Games



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    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 5-9
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-6
    49ers: 6-7
    Eagles: 9-5
    Lions: 5-8
    Falcons: 6-8
    Cardinals: 7-7
    Giants: 4-10
    Packers: 9-4
    Panthers: 5-9
    Rams: 6-8
    Redskins: 8-6
    Vikings: 11-3
    Saints: 5-8
    Seahawks: 7-7
    Bills: 6-8
    Bengals: 5-10
    Colts: 6-7
    Broncos: 7-7
    Dolphins: 9-4
    Browns: 7-5
    Jaguars: 8-6
    Chargers: 5-9
    Jets: 7-7
    Ravens: 6-8
    Texans: 6-7
    Chiefs: 8-5
    Patriots: 7-7
    Steelers: 7-7
    Titans: 6-6
    Raiders: 5-9
    Divisional: 31-37 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 11-16 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 23-21 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 39-39 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 29-15 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 13-11 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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