Week 11 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 74-68-2 (+$1,550)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 4:35 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -4.5.
Thursday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR). Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, DE/OLB Adalius Thomas, S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR).

Ugh, what a terrible week. Mired by bad picks and even worse luck, I somehow defied the odds and went 4-10. A few things. First of all, because I’m a contrarian by nature, I’ll usually fare poorly if Vegas loses. As you’ll read in my next write-up, sportsbooks all across the country lost tons of money. Second, I can’t believe all the BS that occurred in my three five-unit picks.

I took the Browns, who were up 23-10 in the third quarter and were dominating every facet of the game. But thanks to the fact that Kellen Winslow Jr. single-handedly ended three drives by himself, Denver covered. I also had Miami. The Dolphins were up 14-0 with the ball in the second quarter. Unfortunately, Chad Pennington tossed a pick-six. Later, Seneca Wallace threw a crushing backdoor touchdown. In my final 5-unit play, the Raiders, who were playing their hearts out, as predicted, made so many dumb mistakes. They nearly covered, but gave up a long punt return at the end of the game, allowing Carolina to kick a meaningless front-door field goal with a minute left in regulation.

I seriously don’t know how much of this I can take anymore. If you recall, I had a poor Week 7 because of another Wallace backdoor touchdown and a Jay Cutler injury on the first play of the game at New England.

Speaking of the Patriots, is anyone else sick of that “He has a gift. He has powers” commercial? What gift? Tossing careless interceptions in big games?

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I guess you can say this qualifies as a big game. And you know what that means. If not, let’s flash back to Nov. 29, 2007. The Packers were playing their biggest game of the year against the untested Cowboys. Dallas, the home team, was favored by one score, but many believed that Brett Favre’s experience would carry Green Bay to victory.

Not quite. Favre was absolutely horrendous, going 5-of-14 for 56 yards and two interceptions before leaving the game with an injury.

Favre has a Super Bowl trophy on his mantle, but ever since winning the Big Game, he has repeatedly come up small in important situations.

Favre will be heavily relied upon because the Patriots will put the clamps on Thomas Jones. Jones has fared well recently, but New England hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3. The Patriots completely bottled up Marshawn Lynch on Sunday.

Theoretically, Favre should be able to throw all over New England. The Patriots have an abysmal secondary comprised of players who either have no talent or happen to be over the hill. Favre should also have a comfortable pocket to work out of; the Patriots, who have just 16 sacks on the year, will be missing their best pass-rusher, Adalius Thomas.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: We still don’t know how Matt Cassel will play in a big game, but what we do know is that Bill Belichick will put him in the best position to win. Belichick’s game planning ever since Tom Brady went down has been masterful; he has been able to hide Cassel’s glaring weakness (arm strength) with a clock-controlling offense that features short and intermediate throws to Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Darrelle Revis, a dominant corner, will be able to take away one side of the field, but what are the Jets going to do on the other side? They just signed Ty Law, which shows how desperate they are.

One thing Belichick won’t be able to do is establish a consistent ground attack. Thanks to the monstrous Kris Jenkins, the Jets are second versus the rush.

RECAP: With Cassel at the helm and Thomas out of the lineup, one could argue that the Jets are the better team. And I think such a statement is pretty valid.

However, as I mentioned above, Favre has a habit of choking in big games. He gets nervous and begins lobbing up careless interceptions downfield. If he starts doing that, the Jets don’t have a shot.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge here. This game is for first place.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The public likes Brett Favre.

Percentage of money on New York: 64% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 11 of the last 12 meetings.

Jets are 18-28-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 49 instances (11-11 under Eric Mangini).

Patriots are 26-12 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 40-30 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Showers, 46 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 17
Patriots -3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 41 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Jets 34, Patriots 31

Jets-Patriots Recap

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Giants -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Giants -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR). Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR David Tyree (IR), DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes.

As mentioned above, Vegas took it up the rear end on Sunday. If you want a detailed breakdown of the losing weekend for the NFL Sportsbooks, click the link. As for a brief summary, Vegas won only one lop-sided bet game on Sunday. So how many lop-sided contests did it lose? Try seven! Even with getting 10-percent juice from bettors, going 1-7 (2-7 counting the Monday night game) means massive losses.

I can’t remember where I wrote this, but I theorized that after four winning weeks and Black Friday coming up, Vegas would give some money back to the public. If people don’t have any money to gamble with, they won’t be able to lose cash betting on football games! So, with tons of shady spreads on the board, I suspected something foul was going on, but nothing like 2-7!

We’ll have an idea of how Vegas may fare this week by what happens in this contest. This line is unusually low. The Giants, who have dominated everyone since losing to Cleveland about a month ago, are favored by less than a touchdown over a rookie quarterback? This line is begging for the public to back the defending Super Bowl champs.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Speaking of the rookie, I find it odd that everyone is paying attention to Matt Ryan, yet no one is talking about how great Joe Flacco has been recently. Since getting debacled at Indianapolis in Week 6, Flacco has thrown six touchdowns, no picks, and has fumbled only once. His completion percentage and YPA in his previous four contests are 61.6 and 8.1, respectively.

That said, his opponents also have to be taken into account. Flacco has torched four abysmal secondaries (Miami, Oakland, Cleveland and Houston). While it should be noted that Flacco dispatched the Dolphins, Browns and Texans on the road, the Giants offer a much greater challenge.

Baltimore also won’t be able to run the ball nearly as well as they have the past three weeks. While Cleveland, Oakland and Houston are 28th, 25th and 22nd against the rush, respectively, the Giants are eighth. Flacco consequently will be in more third-and-long situations than he’s used to.

Whether or not Flacco converts his third-down situations depends entirely upon Baltimore’s pass protection. The Ravens have done well with shielding Flacco this season, but the Giants’ pass rush is the NFL’s best.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of a pass rush, Baltimore must apply pressure on Eli Manning if it wants to win this game. That could be difficult, however, as the Giants have one of the best offensive lines in the league. If Manning has enough time, he’ll torch the Ravens’ injury-ridden secondary.

The Ravens should be able to force Manning into long-yardage situations and eliminate his play-action by stopping the run. Containing Brandon Jacobs, a 265-pound freight train with speed, is difficult for most teams, but Baltimore ranks first against the rush, giving up a mere 2.8 yards per carry.

RECAP: So, why is this line so low? If Vegas wanted equal action, it would have made the spread -8 or -8.5. Tons of square bettors are looking at Giants -6.5 and saying, “The Giants are hot, they’ll win by a touchdown for sure!”

Could it be that the books want to recoup some of the money they lost last week? Or maybe they know something we don’t.

Perhaps they recognize that Baltimore is vastly underrated because of how well Flacco has played recently. Maybe it’s the fact that the Giants, who are coming off a pair of divisional victories, could be flat against a non-conference opponent in a game they really don’t need to win. Or perhaps it’s because people are fading the Ravens because it’s their third consecutive road tilt. As you can see below, that trend is vastly overrated.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

What does this game mean to the Giants? They just beat two divisional rivals. They’re in first place by a mile. This is a non-conference game for them. Meanwhile, Baltimore is tied for first, so it needs this more.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

A very low line has created a ton of betting action on the Giants. The spread has moved on to a key number.

Percentage of money on New York: 71% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Third Road Alert: Teams in their third-consecutive road game are 12-14 ATS since 2000 (misleading).

Ravens are 20-12 ATS in November.

Ravens are 5-2 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 4-1 ATS on the road in 2008.

Giants are 11-16 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 27 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Giants 14, Ravens 10
Ravens +7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Giants 30, Ravens 10

Minnesota Vikings (5-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 4. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Buccaneers -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Buccaneers -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Injuries: Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Michael Boulware (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Jared Allen. Buccaneers: OUT: FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR).

After two brutal weeks in a row, I was expecting a slew of hate mail from readers. I was pleased to see that no one sent me any hate mail. In fact, I only received two e-mails regarding my horrific Week 9 and 10 selections. One guy said that with another poor week, he’d give up on me, but stated that following my selections “has been fun.” Another guy sent me a couple of links to help my handicapping efforts.

I really appreciate all the non-negative feedback. After all the B.S. I endured with last week’s three five-unit selections – look at the Jets-Pats lead for more – reading negative e-mails would have sucked. You guys are awesome.

I was actually thinking about posting some negative e-mails in my leads this week. Because I didn’t receive any, I’ll make one up:

YO WALT! You suck at picking games! You can’t even pick your nose correctly! Ha! I lost so much money following your s***ty picks the past two weeks! I bet my mortgage on the Browns. I bet my car on the Dolphins. I bet my kid’s tuition on the Raiders. Now, I’ve lost everything! My wife is leaving me, my kids have unfriended me on Facebook, and even my dog urinated on me! You’ve ruined my life, you POS! I’m never going to your site ever again. Don’t quit your day job, loser!

OK, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s move on to this contest so I can lose yet another high-unit bet!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s really a miracle the Vikings won last week. Gus Frerotte tried his hardest to give the game away. He tossed three picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. But thanks to the Packers’ terrible rush defense, Adrian Peterson was able to will Minnesota to victory.

If Frerotte gives the ball away a few times, the Vikings won’t have a chance to win this game. While the Packers are 27th against the run, Tampa Bay is tied for 11th, allowing a whole yard per carry less to opposing backs.

Peterson still should be able to break a long gain or two, but he’ll be bottled up for the most part, meaning Frerotte will have to beat a very talented secondary to convert first downs. Tampa Bay’s seventh-ranked pass defense will limit Minnesota’s mediocre receiving corps.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: When it comes to run defense, Minnesota is king of the NFC, ranking first in the conference in that department. Earnest Graham struggled against the Chiefs’ last-ranked run defense, so I wasn’t really expecting anything out of him anyway.

Tampa Bay will be able to move the chains, however. Minnesota’s secondary, already pretty pedestrian, won’t have the services of nickel Charles Gordon, who is out for the year with a fractured leg. I like the emerging Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard and Warrick Dunn versus the Vikings, who are ranked in the bottom half of the league versus the pass.

Minnesota’s pass rush should also be neutralized; Jared Allen and Kevin Williams have combined for 15 sacks on the season, but Tampa Bay’s offensive line has done a phenomenal job in terms of protection. The front has surrendered only 10 sacks on the year!

RECAP: I like the Buccaneers a lot in this spot for several reasons:

1. Frerotte sucks, and will be even worse against a dominant defense, but I’ve already gone over that.

2. The Vikings are terrible on the road. They had no shot at Chicago and Tennessee. They also lost at Green Bay, and needed a series of miraculous events to win at New Orleans.

3. Tampa Bay is dominant at home. The Buccaneers are 4-0 as hosts this season, winning every contest by at least nine points. They beat the 7-2 Panthers, 27-3, and 6-3 Falcons, 24-9.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

After equal action early on, the public now likes Tampa Bay.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 76% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Vikings are 6-9 ATS in outdoor games under Brad Childress.

Buccaneers are 9-4 ATS at home sine 2007.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Vikings 17
Buccaneers -4 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 38.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Buccaneers 19, Vikings 13

Oakland Raiders (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Line: Dolphins by 10. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Dolphins -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Dolphins -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Injuries: Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR). Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR).

College football notes: So much for a Penn State law suit against the NCAA. How do you lose to Iowa, especially after a week off? Seriously. I don’t believe this loss was legitimate. I’m convinced someone read my Penn State lawsuit idea and paid off the crooked Big Ten officials. Who could do such a thing? How about the ultra greedy Graham Cocker Spanier, perhaps the ugliest man in America?

Why would Penn State’s president sabotage a perfect season? Other than the fact that he’s a colossal jerk, Spanier has openly admitted (in 2005) that he would rather see Penn State play in a meaningless bowl game than contend for a national championship in a playoff situation. Spanier is also trying his hardest to remove Joe Paterno from the program. Spanier is an ugly, evil man, and must be stopped.

I bring up the Penn State loss here because that was the only thing more frustrating for me than watching the Raiders lose their cover at the last second. Ugh. I’m disgusted. Let’s just move on to the matchups.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Oakland’s run defense really sucks. Really really really really really really really really really sucks. Have I made it clear that the rush defense really really really really really really really sucks?

Here’s how much they really suck: The past four weeks, the Raiders have surrendered at least 160 rushing yards to each of their opponents. As a comparison, Miami hasn’t given up more than 140 rushing yards to anyone all year!

This can only end in ruins for Oakland. Miami will Wildcat the Raiders to death. Ronnie Brown could approach the 200-yard rushing barrier. Ricky Williams will also get into the mix once again.

Chad Pennington should be able to capitalize off Brown and Williams. Jake Delhomme wasn’t able to do so against Nnamdi Asomugha and company, but there’s less of a chance that Pennington, despite his unfortunate unforced pick-six last week, shows up and plays like he’s drunk. If Pennington can take care of the football, there’s a good chance Miami puts up enough points to win.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: So… maybe Al Davis shouldn’t have fired Lane Kiffin. Undead Al blamed Kiffin for an inefficient offense, yet the Raiders are scoring much less under Tom Cable (7.0 points per game) than they were with Kiffin (19.5). Good thing JaMarcus Russell’s such a great player and people are getting over it!

Speaking of Russell, it appears as though he’s going to play. This is great news because Andrew Walter sucks at life. Unfortunately, Russell won’t have much of a running game to work with. The Dolphins are 11th versus the rush, so Russell will be asked to move the chains on his own.

That’s going to be a problem. Even though Miami has issues in its secondary, Russell doesn’t have the receivers to consistently convert third downs. Plus, Matt Roth and Joey Porter are going to make things really hectic for the “great quarterback,” as Oakland’s offensive line is an abomination.

RECAP: Miami is obviously the better team, but that’s why they’re favored by 10.5.

Though it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Dolphins won this game by the score of 34-3 or something, I can’t endorse laying double digits in this league right now, especially with the Dolphins, who have only one victory of more than nine points this season. Besides, Miami might not be focused, as it has a battle with New England next week.

Also, it’s worth noting that double-digit favorites are an abysmal 1-10 against the spread this year.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

Sandwich Situation. The Dolphins have a meeting with the first-place Patriots next week. They have to be laughing at the Raiders, who look like the worst team in NFL history right now. Oakland tried hard against Carolina.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

A lot of action on Miami, but the line dropped.

Percentage of money on Miami: 70% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 25-44 ATS since 2002 (Tom Cable 0-1).

Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 1-10 ATS in 2008.

Chad Pennington is 15-9 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Dolphins -11.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 17
Raiders +10.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 38.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Dolphins 17, Raiders 15

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)
Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Saints: OUT: TE Jeremy Shockey, DE Charles Grant (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Mike McKenzie (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR). Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR). DOUBTFUL: DE Tamba Hali, DE Turk McBride, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Brandon Flowers, CB Patrick Surtain.

I made fun of FOX (Terry Bradshaw, of course) last week, so giving equal opportunity to both networks, let’s talk about CBS. Prior to making their weekly picks, CBS flashed the records of each analyst on the board. Everyone was well above .500, except for Shannon Sharpe, who had a record 15-21. Wow! Remember, he’s not picking against the spread. That’s 15-21 straight up! How does that happen? Does he pick the Raiders, Lions and Bengals every week?

At any rate, Matt McGuire let the forum know that Sharpe liked Tampa Bay against the Chiefs because “[Warrick] Dunn will be rollin!” The problem? Dunn was inactive and didn’t even make the trip to Kansas City. Good thing I don’t go to Sharpe for my fantasy advice! Sharpe’s lacking knowledge wasn’t as astonishing as Matt somehow understanding the former Pro Bowl tight end. To me, it would have sounded like, “wewheoighi( g4 ghoergho rthoigr oi4pioirg43h $.”

Sharpe luckily escaped with a win on that selection. Actually, every team the Chiefs have played the past three weeks have had to hold their breath. That would include the 6-3 Jets, 6-3 Buccaneers and a desperate Chargers squad.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Tyler Thigpen’s transformation from scrub to savior has been remarkable. Earlier in the year, Thigpen was 14-of-36 for 128 yards, three picks and a fumble in a Week 3 performance. The past three games, Thigpen is 66-of-102, 710 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions and no fumbles.

I see no reason why he would slow down. First of all, New Orleans’ secondary sucks. The Saints are 21st against the pass, a statistic that has been dropping ever since sensational rookie corner Tracy Porter suffered a season-ending injury. Now, top corner Mike McKenzie is gone for the year as well.

Secondly, Thigpen has two Pro Bowl-caliber talents at his disposal. Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe have to be thrilled that the Chiefs have a competent quarterback for the first time since 2006. And now that Mark Bradley is emerging, Kansas City’s offense has made the full transition from lackluster to lethal.

Making matters worse for the Saints is that Larry Johnson will be in the lineup. Granted, Johnson is overworked and over the hill, but he’s yet another thing New Orleans will need to worry about.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This is pretty obvious. The Chiefs’ defense has been horrendous this season. They’re 29th against the pass and dead last versus the run. They have just six sacks on the year.

If that’s not bad enough, how about the fact that starters Tamba Hali, Turk McBride, Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers, and nickel Patrick Surtain, are all doubtful for this contest?

That’s definitely not good news for New Orleans’ dynamic offense. It’s conceivable that Drew Brees could score on every possession.

RECAP: This figures to be a high-flying shootout where the winner will be the last team to have the ball.

With that in mind, I like the Chiefs to cover. I see no reason why the struggling Saints deserve to be 5-point road favorites against a Kansas City squad that has played almost as well as anyone the past few weeks. And it’s not like this is a shady spread or anything; the public is all over the visitor.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

Ultimate must-win scenario for the Saints, though the Chiefs are playing really hard right now.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

I’m surprised more people aren’t on the Chiefs. Guess the public hasn’t caught on to Tyler Thigpen yet.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 68% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 121-80 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996 (Sean Payton 2-1).

Saints are 40-28 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite.

Chiefs are 3-8 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Saints 34
Chiefs +5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 50.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Saints 30, Chiefs 20

Tennessee Titans (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Titans -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Titans -4.
Sunday, 4:15 ET (Time change) – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: WR Reggie Williams, G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR).

While I didn’t receive any hate mail in regard to my Week 10 NFL Picks, I did have a conversation with a strange person. On Thursday night, I received a message from a man named Rameshesh on Gmail IM. The conversation was brief, but also very confusing. I thought I’d share it with you:

Rameshesh: Good evening.

Me: What’s up?

Rameshesh: Dear I need some automatic articles url. U can help me.

Me: Uhh… I can? What’s an automatic url?

Rameshesh: I mean articles url where approval has come.

Me: Come from whom? I’m not sure what you mean.

Rameshesh: Dear I need simply article URL where we have submit our articles.

Me: Stop calling me Dear! I’m not your Dear! I don’t even know you, and I’m not ready for that sort of commitment yet.

Rameshesh: Yes-Yes. How many days are you working in this field?

Me: This is getting too weird for me, Emmitt Jr. I gotta go. Cya.

Yeah, I have no idea. What a weirdo. Let’s just move on to this game.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Last week, the Bears were able to hold Chris Johnson and LenDale White to an amazing two feet per carry. Chicago completely sold out against the run, giving Kerry Collins wide-open passing lanes. Collins thrived, finishing the game 30-of-41, 289 yards and two touchdowns.

Can Jacksonville do the same thing? I don’t think so. First of all, Chicago is ranked fifth versus the run. Without Marcus Stroud and with a declining Mike Peterson, Jacksonville is 23rd in that department. Even if the Jaguars stuff the line of scrimmage with defenders, Johnson and White will be able to churn out about three or four yards per carry.

With all the attention on the run, I don’t see how Jacksonville can stop Collins. First of all, the Jaguars had just 11 sacks prior to last week’s blowout against the Lions, so I can’t see them putting any pressure on Collins. Second, Jacksonville’s secondary has struggled this year. Rashean Mathis is still playing on a high level, but obvious bust acquisition Drayton Florence has been benched.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Something else Jacksonville has struggled to do this year is run the ball. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, who were dominant last year, have combined for just 3.9 yards per carry, thanks to massive injuries on the front.

Jones-Drew and Taylor will continue to fail to find yardage. It’s pretty tough to run on Albert Haynesworth and the Titans, who are ninth versus the rush.

Without a solid rushing attack, it’ll once again be up to David Garrard. After getting debacled early in the year, Garrard has come on lately, putting up at least 220 yards in five of the past six contests. However, looking closely, those five solid performances were against Houston (30th versus the pass), Denver (28th), Cleveland (25th), Cincinnati (13th and falling without Keith Rivers) and Detroit (32nd). Tennessee is third in this department.

RECAP: On paper, Tennessee wins this game. Jacksonville has been overrated the entire year, and just doesn’t match up against the only undefeated team in the league. It’s a shame no one wears a No. 100 jersey so they can put some tape in between the “10” and “0.”

However, games aren’t played on paper (hint, hint, NCAA). There are a number of factors present that lead to me to believe that Jacksonville can pull the stunning upset. Let’s go over them, shall we?

1. This line is way too shady. Titans by three? Are you kidding me? Any casual bettor has to be looking at this and saying, “Wow! Titans have to win by just three!? That’s easy!” Some 2.5 spreads are beginning to pop up as well.

2. This game means much more to Jacksonville for three reasons:

a. Jacksonville is in the hunt for a wildcard spot. They’re two games out. Going 4-6 would finish them off. At 5-5, they’d have a solid shot at the Doggone Playoff.

b. Tennessee is sitting comfortably in first place, three games ahead of everyone in the conference. Though they want to stay undefeated, that can’t be a huge concern of theirs; they saw what happened to the Patriots last year.

c. The Jaguars hate the Titans more than any other team in the league, save for Indianapolis. They have to be seething that Tennessee is 9-0. This is Jacksonville’s Super Bowl. Even if they don’t qualify for the postseason, they can still take pleasure in being the team to knock off the last undefeated squad in the league.

3. Are we sure the Titans are that great? Don’t get me wrong; they’re a good team. But 9-0 worthy? Rex Grossman was throwing passes like a leering drunk last week, yet they managed to beat the Bears by only seven points. Two weeks ago, they nearly lost to Green Bay at home. Three weeks ago, they struggled against the Colts before opening things up in the second half. Two games prior to that, they needed a miraculous final drive and some help from the officials to knock off Baltimore.

I’m putting three units on the Jaguars, which means I’ll probably be down 3.3 Units come Monday. I think this is a terrible spot for Tennessee. The only reason I’m not making this an even larger play is because I’m not convinced overrated Jacksonville has the horses to keep up with the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars are fighting for their playoff lives right now. The Titans just won a big game in Chicago. Jacksonville hates Tennessee and would love nothing more than to give its arch rival its first loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

What a shady line! Anyone looking at this is saying, “Wow! All the Titans need to do is win by a field goal!? That’s easy!”

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 80% (155,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Titans have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Bum: Jeff Fisher is 6-9 ATS on the road after a road win.

Jaguars are 12-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Jaguars are 7-0 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 7 instances.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 16
Jaguars +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 40 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Titans 24, Jaguars 14

Houston Texans (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
Line: Colts by 8. Total: 50.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Colts -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Colts -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis. Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR).

In my previous write-up I showed you a conversation I had with some weirdo. Check out this odd e-mail I received the other day. I don’t even know where to begin with this, so I’ll let you read it:

Hello…. there, I am from U.K my son iscoming for an holiday in your area, He’s name is kelvin and he is 17 years old so i want him to be busy in the time of the day. i have decided to let him attend your lesson , so he will be coming 2hours in a day. so i want you to calculate the cost of 2 hours per day for the whole 1 Month and send me the total cost , i will be paying you with cashier check ,so get back to me with your cost for the December to febumary. Kindly get back to me with……

1.YOUR CHARGE FOR AN HOUR….

2.TOTAL CHARGES FOR 1 MONTH THAT HE WILL BE TAUGHT..

3.FULL NAME AND ADDRESS WITH ZIP CODE….

4.YOUR PHONE NUMBER…

Don’t hesitate to e-mail with your total charges. With Best Regards,

Mr samod

So, some dude named Mr. Samod wants me to give some lesson to “an” 17-year-old from December to “Febumary,” and all I have to do is decide how much I want? I’m going to ask for eleventy billion dollars! Ha! I’m going to be rich!

While on the subject of being rich, that’s what you could be if you’ve faded my Texans picks. Save for last week’s dismal selection against the Ravens, I feel as though I’ve read Houston pretty well this year. I know I’m 2-7 with Texans picks (see the chart at the bottom of the page for all of my spread records), but you have to factor in that I suffered through two Sage Rosenchoker meltdowns and a miserable backdoor cover by the Lions.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Rosenchoker will once again start for the injured Matt Schaub (seriously, is Schaub ever going to be healthy for more than three consecutive weeks?) so you know what that means… more untimely interceptions and fumbles! Hooray!

If you take away the final four minutes of the Colts game earlier in the year, Rosenchoker actually played pretty well. He was 21-of-33 for 246 yards, one touchdown and an interception, as no one in Indianapolis’ secondary could cover Andre Johnson, who went off for nine catches, 131 yards and a score.

However, it was Houston’s running game that propelled them to what should have been a huge victory. Steve Slaton gained 93 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries. Ahman Green, meanwhile, chipped in with 47 yards on 12 attempts. I know Slaton did nothing last week, but Gary Kubiak stated that he purposely sat Slaton for most of the game to give him some rest. Slaton also had a long touchdown run that was called back because of a penalty.

So, with that in mind, Slaton should be able to put together another solid performance. Even with Bob Sanders back, the Colts haven’t been able to stop the run. With Slaton gashing Indianapolis’ ground defense, Rosenchoker should have tons of time to locate his receivers (or the Colts defensive backs) downfield. Either or.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts haven’t been able to run the ball well with Joseph Addai back in the lineup, which has to be pretty disappointing for them. However, Addai had to go up against the Patriots and Steelers, two of the better rush defenses the league has to offer.

Houston, ranked 22nd against the run, won’t be able to contain Addai. This, of course, will open the play-action door for Peyton Manning, who continues to improve every week after offseason knee surgery.

That said, there is no way Manning is 100 percent yet. He’s missing his receivers, especially Marvin Harrison, by a few inches a few times per game. This never would have happened to the Manning of old. He’ll have a good game against the lowly Texans, but don’t expect a 400-yard performance or anything.

RECAP: Odd that there are two AFC South matchups this week where the underdog will be playing its Super Bowl. Houston has no shot at the postseason, but beating Indianapolis is always a huge goal for the franchise.

I don’t think the Colts will be focused. They just won an extremely physical game at Pittsburgh, and they have San Diego next week. How can they get up for lowly Houston?

I’m not sure if Indianapolis deserves to be favored by eight. They’re just not that good this year. Of the team’s five victories, only one is by more than four points!

That said, I wouldn’t recommend laying more than two units on Houston. I could definitely see Rosenchoker flinging a pick-six down by just three points late in the fourth quarter. This guy is a menace.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Colts just had an emotionally draining victory at Pittsburgh. With a game at San Diego next week, I just don’t know how they can get up for the lowly Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight betting action toward Indianapolis. So why did the line drop from -9 to -8?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 79% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Colts have won 12 of the 13 meetings.

Divisional Dog of Seven: Gary Kubiak is 4-2 ATS as a division dog of 7+.

Failed Revenge: Gary Kubiak is 1-3 ATS in same-season revenge situations.

Texans are 25-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.

Opening Line: Colts -9.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Texans 24
Texans +8 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Survivor Pick (8-2)
Colts 33, Texans 27

Chicago Bears (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-5)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Packers -6 (Grossman) or Packers -3 (Orton).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Packers -6 (Grossman) or Packers -3 (Orton).
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: TBA.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR). EXPECTED TO START: QB Kyle Orton. Packers: OUT: DT Justin Harrell, ILB Nick Barnett (IR).

I’m not liking this 16-game thing. I liked it better when I had to write about just 14 games. I know it’s only two more, but it’s worn me out. I guess I’m just not used to it. Luckily, I checked out the Joker Report and saw three pictures of super-hot women, which has given me extra energy so I can do this pick. Screw Cialis!

Someone else who needs an extra boost is Kyle Orton, whom the Bears need to come back as quickly as possible. Rex Grossman was horrific last week. He started the game well, but as soon as he threw his interception, he began flinging passes all over the field. It’s a miracle he wasn’t picked off half a dozen times.

Orton was limited in practice on Wednesday and had a slight limp. John Clayton believes Orton will play, but we won’t know for sure until Sunday. Vegas may pull the same stunt as last week and hold off on posting a spread until Saturday afternoon.

CHICAGO OFFENSE, IF ORTON STARTS: Look for Matt Forte to be featured prominently. The Packers, already weak up the middle and consequently ranked 27th against the run, just lost middle linebacker Nick Barnett for the year.

Forte will be able to open up some play-action opportunities for Orton. Green Bay has just 16 sacks on the year, and Aaron Kampman has half of them. With barely any pressure in his face, Orton should be able to help his team move the chains.

CHICAGO OFFENSE, IF GROSSMAN STARTS: Green Bay won’t respect the pass as much, so it’ll load the line of scrimmage and focus on Forte. Rex Grossman will have to beat a talented secondary ranked second versus the pass, and I really don’t trust that to happen. Grossman is physically gifted, but happens to be a major head case. If he makes one error, everything could snowball in on him.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s really amazing that after a slow start, Ryan Grant was able to gain 86 rushing yards at Tennessee and 75 at Minnesota. Those numbers won’t knock anyone’s socks off by themselves, but the Titans and Vikings happen to be elite versus the run.

Unfortunately for Grant, Chicago also has a top-10 ground defense. He’ll still put up solid yardage, but it won’t be enough to help Aaron Rodgers out all that much.

Speaking of Rodgers, the first-year starter struggled at Minnesota, going 15-of-26 for 142 yards. He was also sacked four times and took two safeties.

Though Chicago is statistically better versus the pass than the Vikings are, I believe Rodgers will bounce back because the Bears can’t pressure the quarterback as well as Minnesota can.

RECAP: A very tough game to call. I’ll tell you why I like each team and then you can decide:

CHICAGO: Lovie Smith happens to have Green Bay’s number. Ever since arriving in Chicago, Smith told the organization that his goal was to beat the Packers. He did that instantly, and has since taken six of eight meetings in this series.

GREEN BAY: I’m not taking the Bears if Grossman is starting. If Orton is under center, Chicago might naturally relax a bit more, knowing its “savior” is back in the lineup.

Good thing I have time to think about where I’m going with this game. I’ll post a pick once the spread is released.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Packers need a win more than the Bears do, but this is a tough divisional game that means a lot to both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 56% (83,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Bears have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Bears are 17-8 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Packers -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Packers 20
Bears +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 43.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Packers 37, Bears 3

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-8)
Line: Eagles by 9. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Eagles -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Eagles -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). Bengals: OUT: RB Kenny Irons (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR).

The YouTube Video of the Week: We all know that NFL players sleep with a lot of women as they travel around the country. After seeing this video, I have to wonder if Emmitt ever traveled to South Carolina and fathered an illegitimate daughter (thank Wraith for this one).

Andy Reid didn’t look as dumb as that woman on Sunday night, but it was close. I can’t believe he challenged on back-to-back plays, especially on one call that was extremely obvious. And what was the deal with running on third- and fourth-and-one on the final drive? The Eagles have had problems converting short-yardage situations all year for many reasons (no power back, no full back, no Shawn Andrews) but the main culprit is Reid, whose predictable play-calling (running right guard or right tackle) is completely disgusting.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I liked the Giants over the Eagles last week because Reid and Donovan McNabb choke in big games. Seriously, they’re 1-7 since the 2006 playoffs in contests decided by four points or less. However, on the other side of the spectrum, Reid is king of debacling terrible teams. You can see that in the trends below. Reid is 13-5 against the spread as a road favorite of 3.5 or more, and 24-15 against the spread versus losing teams since 2001.

In case you’ve been busy watching reruns of Hole in the Wall the entire year, you know the Bengals suck. They’re 17th against the run and 13th versus the pass, and those rankings will continue to fall now that star rookie Keith Rivers is out for the year.

Worst of all, the Bengals have just nine sacks this season. Donovan McNabb will have all the time in the world to stare down Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and Reggie Brown, while Brian Westbrook will prove to be unstoppable yet again.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: While the Bengals can’t get to opposing quarterbacks, protecting their own is an even bigger problem. That’s because they’ve surrendered 30 sacks this year. That definitely doesn’t bode well against Philadelphia’s dynamic pass rush.

The Eagles have a very solid defense, but they can be beaten deep (their safeties aren’t good) and in the trenches (they’re small up the middle). Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s offense won’t be able to expose either weakness. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t have a strong arm, while the Bengals’ run blocking is pretty lackluster. Cedric Benson, the team’s supposed savior at running back, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

RECAP: This is a high spread, but at least it’s not a shady number like 4.5 or anything.

I like the Eagles a lot here. After a poor start, I feel as though I have a good read on them: Fade ’em in big games and play ’em versus crappy teams. That formula has worked in every instance except against the Steelers.

Besides, it’s not like Philadelphia can afford to lose this contest. If they fall to 5-5, they’re done.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are now tied for last place in the NFC East. They have to win, but may not take Cincinnati seriously.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

People are pounding the Eagles, but at least Vegas didn’t come out with a shady spread or anything.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 85% (136,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Bye Bye: Marvin Lewis is 1-4 ATS off a bye.

Winning Coach: Andy Reid is 11-7 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Eagles are 24-15 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Eagles are 10-15 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more.

Donovan McNabb is 20-10 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 32-17 ATS on the road since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Bengals 17
Eagles -9 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 41 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bengals 13, Eagles 13

Detroit Lions (0-9) at Carolina Panthers (7-2)
Line: Panthers by 14. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Panthers -15.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Panthers -15.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Injuries: Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR). Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR).

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

99% Job Security – Give Lions owner William Clay Ford a wedgie during a meeting.

97% Job Security – Wear a t-shirt to a game that says “William Clay Ford sucks!”

95% Job Security – Slice off Calvin Johnson’s hands with a machete.

92% Job Security – Call in a bomb threat to Ford Field and then admit to doing so.

91.9% Job Security – Call in a bomb threat to Ford Field, admit to doing so, and then actually nuke the stadium.

Speaking of Marinelli, make sure you check out my NFL Power Rankings for a concise message about why the Lions should be starting Drew Stanton right now.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Despite the fact that Daunte Culpepper is washed up and Stanton actually has promise, the former will start yet again. Other than the fact that the Lions are dumb, I have no explanation for this.

On the bright side, Culpepper will actually have time to practice with the team this time around, so maybe he’ll just suck a little bit instead of suck a lot.

No one in the NFL can cover Calvin Johnson, while Kevin Smith is emerging as a solid option, so there’s a chance Detroit could score a bit on Carolina’s defense. The Panthers are just 21st against the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry, so maybe the Lions can get something going with Smith.

However, those chances I’m talking about are pretty slim. Detroit’s offensive line sucks (34 sacks allowed), meaning Julius Peppers and company could make life extremely difficult for a fumble-prone Culpepper.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I don’t know what happened to Jake Delhomme last week – in my Power Rankings, I theorized that Al Davis turned into a vampire back and sucked Delhomme’s blood the night before the game – but the fact remains that he completed just seven passes to his receivers and four other throws to Oakland defenders.

Playing Detroit could be just what the doctor ordered. Thanks to an abysmal secondary and a meager pass rush, the Lions are last versus the pass.

Of course, Delhomme may not even have to air it out. Detroit is 29th versus the rush. DeAngelo Williams is poised for a huge afternoon.

RECAP: Detroit sucks. We all know that. But 14 points is a lot to lay in today’s NFL. As I noted in my Dolphins-Raiders write-up, double-digit favorites are a disgraceful 1-10 against the spread this year. Meanwhile, Rod Marinelli is 6-0 against the spread as a double-digit underdog as coach of the Lions.

Furthermore, Carolina could be unfocused here. Coming back from a cross-country trip to Oakland, the Panthers have Atlanta, Green Bay and Tampa Bay to prepare for after this “easy win.”

The Lions, meanwhile, are dying for their first victory. Prior to getting debacled by the desperate Jaguars, they had covered three of four games, losing those contests by an average of 5.3 points. And it’s not like they played other cupcakes; they kept things close against 5-4 Chicago, 6-3 Washington, 3-6 Houston and 5-4 Minnesota.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

Breather Alert. This is Carolina’s last game before a slew of tough battles. The next three weeks, they have Atlanta, Green Bay and Tampa Bay on the slate. The Lions are dying to win their first game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 58% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 1-10 ATS in 2008.

Zero Heroes: Teams 0-9 or worse are 9-3 ATS since 2000 (5-2 ATS vs. winning teams).

Lions are 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Rod Marinelli.

Lions are 7-12 ATS on the road since 2006.

Panthers are 12-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 18-25 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 12-18 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Panthers -14.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Lions 13
Lions +14 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Panthers 31, Lions 22

Denver Broncos (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Falcons -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Falcons -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Injuries: Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Ryan Torain (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Champ Bailey. Falcons: OUT: OT Sam Baker, CB Von Hutchins (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever.

Poor Bo-Bo. He just can’t get a win. He starts Gus Frerotte (9 points), Derrick Ward (7), Tim Hightower (4), Marcedes Lewis (6), David Akers (7) and even Terrell Owens (0 – bye). Bo-Bo consequently lost by 40 points, as his record worsened to 2-8. Bo-Bo was way too busy to take Owens out of his lineup because he was having sex with 1.4 million girls at once and buying up property at the North Pole.

Bo-Bo doesn’t have anyone on his team who will be playing in this game, so he likely won’t be paying attention to this contest. However, this is a huge matchup for both teams. If the Falcons win, they improve to 7-3 and keep at least a share of one of the wildcard slots in the NFC. If the Broncos win, they don’t have to worry about the Chargers tying them for the division lead.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan’s outstanding rookie season has been well-publicized, Michael Turner is third in the league, while Roddy White is one of the league’s most-dangerous receivers. What no one is talking about is the incredible play of Atlanta’s offensive line. Despite missing left tackle Sam Baker for a few games, the front has limited opposing defenses to 12 sacks, while allowing the running backs to gain 4.6 yards per carry.

Both pass protection and run blocking won’t be a problem this week. The Broncos are terrible on defense. They’re ranked 31st against the run and 28th versus aerial attacks, while their pass rush is really inconsistent.

Ryan, Turner and White are going to eat this defense alive. I can’t see Denver containing Atlanta’s dynamic offense.

DENVER OFFENSE: Denver’s scoring attack is pretty spectacular itself, though the main difference between the Broncos and Falcons is the former’s lack of a rushing attack.

Denver simply doesn’t have any healthy running backs right now. Selvin Young is the only guy to avoid the IR, but he’s really banged-up. It appears as though Peyton Hillis and Tatum Bell will split carries, which won’t be too effective, even against Atlanta’s 26th-ranked rush defense.

Jay Cutler will obviously be able to move the chains by hooking up with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, but without a dependable ground attack, Denver’s offense will be less consistent in moving the chains than Atlanta’s will. Besides, the Falcons are 16th versus the pass, and despite surrendering more than 400 passing yards to Drew Brees last week, they made life really difficult for the Pro Bowl signal caller. Brees tossed three picks and was close to firing a few more.

RECAP: I’m riding the Falcons. They’re on fire right now, especially at home, where they’ve trailed by a grand total of 11 seconds!

The Broncos are a flawed football team and will be exposed by a very solid team in the Georgia Dome.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Pretty big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight action on the Falcons, but the line has moved up a lot to compensate.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 59% (161,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Broncos are 5-13 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Falcons are 2-16 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 18 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 34, Broncos 24
Falcons -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 51 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Broncos 24, Falcons 20

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cardinals at Seahawks, Rams at 49ers, Chargers at Steelers, Cowboys at Redskins, Browns at Bills

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

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2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)