Week 14 NFL Picks – WalterFootball

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 99-90-3 (+$1,460)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 8, 5:10 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bills -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Bills -1.
Sunday, 4:05 ET at Toronto – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: WR Greg Camarillo (IR), G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR). Bills: OUT: DE Aaron Schobel, OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR). QUESTIONABLE: QB Trent Edwards*.

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

100% Job Security – Start a legitimate NFL quarterback over Daunte Culpepper and Drew Henson.

100% Job Security – Shoot William Clay Ford in the foot and hide the gun.

100% Job Security – Lose by 50 billion points on Thanksgiving.

100% Job Security – Petition the NCAA to make the Lions eligible for the Big XII Championship (they’d still lose).

0% Job Security – Kick William Clay Ford out of a party early, despite the fact that William Clay Ford volunteered to bring more beer from his house.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: For those of you who are looking to bet this game, keep in mind that this contest will be in Toronto; not Buffalo. As I wrote below in my psychology section, I have no idea how the Bills will react to playing a “home game” away from their home stadium. There will be tons of Bills fans at the Rogers Centre, but Bears and Saints fans respectively flooded Champaign and San Antonio/Baton Rouge, and those teams didn’t fare well there.

I know one thing to be true, however. If J.P. Zohan has to start in favor of the questionable Trent Edwards, things won’t end well for the Bills.

Zohan throws a nice deep ball, but he has way too many other weaknesses in his game, all of which will get exposed when Miami shuts down Marshawn Lynch.

Lynch has been more successful on the ground recently, rushing for an average of 111 yards the past three weeks. However, that happened to be against Cleveland, Kansas City and San Francisco. The Dolphins are 12th versus the rush, and limited Lynch to just 61 yards in their Oct. 26 meeting.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Buffalo’s run defense, which has been leaky lately, completely debacled Frank Gore last week, holding the Pro Bowl back to less than two yards per carry. That’s definitely great news because the Bills can’t afford to let Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams run wild.

However, it should be noted that neither rusher accomplished much in the Oct. 26 contest. Brown and Williams combined for 59 yards on 21 carries. It was Chad Pennington who absolutely killed the Bills, dissecting their secondary by going 22-of-30, 314 yards and a touchdown.

Pennington simply had all day to throw from a clean pocket. Buffalo managed just one sack that afternoon, and the team’s pass rush hasn’t magically improved. Aaron Schobel hasn’t played since Week 5, though he could be back next Sunday. Unfortunately, if the Bills lose this contest, it’ll all be over by then.

RECAP: I don’t like either side here. I know I’ve been pretty successful in picking Buffalo games this season, but I’ve seriously flip-flopped 20 times the past two days.

I like Miami because of the uncertainty the Bills have at quarterback. I refuse to back Zohan. He’s just so terrible and unreliable. I also don’t know how the Bills will react to playing a “home game” in Toronto.

I like Buffalo because the teams who played those home contests away from home both won their first game (see the psychology section for more details). Also, the Dolphins have failed to cover a single game since Nov. 2. Sure, they’re 3-1 in that span, but their three victories have been by a combined margin of eight points against the Rams, Raiders (home) and Seahawks (home).

I’m going to take a shot with the Bills. Maybe they’ll get up for playing in Toronto. Maybe Zohan won’t be so terrible with a week’s worth of practice reps. And maybe Miami’s recent struggles with the spread is an indication that they’re about to fall out of the playoff picture.

WEATHER NOTE: On Wednesday night, I pointed out that it’s going to be cold and windy in Toronto. However, several e-mailers have pointed out that the Rogers Centre has a retractable roof.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
I’m not sure how to read this game. Yes, I know both teams need a win, but how will the Bills handle playing a “home game” away from their home stadium?

In 2002, the Bears played eight contests in Champaign. They won (but failed to cover) their first contest against the Vikings, but began losing after that. They finished 3-5 straight up and against the spread as “hosts.”

In 2005, the Saints had seven games at San Antonio and Baton Rouge. They won (and covered) their first game as well, but completed the year 1-6 straight up and 2-4-1 against the spread at “home.”

I know this is different because it’s a one-shot deal, so like I said, I’m not sure how to read this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Buffalo’s pathetic loss to the 49ers has turned people against them.

Percentage of money on Miami: 66% (75,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Dolphins are 5-16 ATS vs. AFC East since 2005.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: RETRACTABLE ROOF.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 20
Bills -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Dolphins 16, Bills 3

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Denver Broncos (7-5)
Line: Broncos by 9. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Broncos -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Broncos -9.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR), DE Turk McBride (IR). Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), TE Nate Jackson (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR).

The 13th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Week 11: the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension! Week 12: the Patriots battle the Jets for first place in the AFC East.

Now, in Week 13, Emmitt and Romeo Crennel attend a charity event prior to playing Andy Reid and the 49ers. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

DENVER OFFENSE: So, Jay Cutler completely sucks against the Raiders one week, comes back the following Sunday, and torches the hot Jets for 357 yards and two touchdowns? How does that make sense?

Well, believe it or not, it does. New York really struggles versus the pass. Almost every starter they’ve faced has thrown for more than 235 yards against them. Luckily for Cutler, the Chiefs are even worse in the YPA department. According to that stat, Kansas City is 28th against the pass (the Jets are 22nd).

Cutler should have a pretty big day connecting with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler. Cutler will also be able to utilize play-action off Peyton Hillis’ running ability. Hillis, who became the first running back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Jets this season, figures to debacle Kansas City’s dead-last run defense.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of porous defenses, the Broncos can’t stop an opposing offense to save their lives. The overconfident Jets managed just 17 points against them because they ran stupid trick plays, while Brett Favre threw an untimely interception.

Larry Johnson will be able to trample Denver’s 29th-ranked rush defense, setting up great opportunities for Tyler Thigpen, who has excelled since taking over for Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. The Broncos have no pass rush, so Thigpen will have all day to locate Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez and Mark Bradley amid the NFL’s 26th-ranked pass defense.

RECAP: This is a terrible spot for the Broncos. First of all, they don’t need to win this game. Thanks to San Diego’s terrible performance against the Falcons last week, they’re now three games ahead of the Chargers in the NFC West. Second, after a tough victory at New York, they have Carolina next week after this “easy victory.”

In the wake of its win against the Jets, Denver is overrated right now. Their defense is horrible, which explains why they’ve struggled as large favorites recently (0-5 against the spread as -3.5 or more this season).

The Chiefs have been playing well lately, especially on the road (covered their last three), so I’m pretty comfortable siding with them.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Broncos don’t need to win this game. They’re now three ahead of San Diego. They’re coming off a big win against the Jets, and they have Carolina next week. Sandwich Situation.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
After early action on Denver, everything has balanced out.

Percentage of money on Denver: 56% (91,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 13 of the last 15 meetings.

Futile Vengeance: Mike Shanahan is 1-3 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.

Chiefs are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Broncos are 6-22 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 33, Chiefs 31
Chiefs +9 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 48.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

New York Jets (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
Line: Jets by 4. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jets -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Jets -4.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR). 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “They threw the ball to him a number of time.” (Commentary: I wish Emmitt would get into specifics and tell us how many time he was thrown the ball.)

2. “Brett Favre will not has these types of games again.” (Commentary: A bold prediction by Emmitt!)

3. “Protect the football because you’ve had problems fumbling football during the preseason.” (Commentary: Much like Emmitt has been fumbling grammar the past two years.)

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The NFL is really strange. The Broncos lose to the Raiders and go on to beat the Jets on the road the following week. Meanwhile, New York knocks off New England and Tennessee as visiting underdogs, and then follows that up with a blowout home loss to a Denver squad that just went down to Oakland.

It was also weird to see Marshawn Lynch rush for 134 yards against the 49ers last week. Even with that factored in, San Francisco is still 10th versus the rush.

They should be able to do a better job against Thoams Jones; after all, they restricted Marion Barber to 59 yards on 19 carries the week before.

That said, it doesn’t really matter because the Jets should be able to move the chains regardless; Brett Favre has been extremely effective with his short and intermediate routes, thanks to the emergence of Dustin Keller.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have been much more efficient offensively with Shaun Hill at quarterback. That’s because unlike J.T. O’Sullivan, Hill doesn’t turn the ball over. In eight starts, O’Sullivan had 11 picks and 11 fumbles. Hill also has a fumbling problem (6), but has just three interceptions in his four starts.

I know San Francisco scored just 10 points against the Bills, but their offense performed pretty well. The team was able to convert plenty of third downs, keeping Buffalo’s scoring unit on the sidelines.

The 49ers should be able to do that again. The Jets’ secondary is so bad that almost every quarterback who has started against them has thrown for at least 239 yards. Hill, who has more passing touchdowns in the past four games than guys like Jay Cutler and Favre, could conceivably throw for 300 yards and a pair of scores, making him a fantasy sleeper this week.

Meanwhile, Frank Gore has a tough task on paper. The Jets are ranked fourth against the rush. However, they just surrendered 100 rushing yards to a single running back (Peyton Hillis) for the first time all year. Is that a sign that they’re wearing down?

RECAP: Bill Simmons runs a weekly feature on his podcast where he and Cousin Sal guess the lines. Both were off by a mile on this game. I believe Cousin Sal said -9 or something. Simmons guessed -11.5.

I didn’t get why they were so off – the Jets were just -3 at Oakland about a month ago – but this made me realize how skewed public perception is regarding this contest. There’s a reason why this is the most lop-sided game on the slate, with about 97 percent of the money on the visitor, as of Wednesday evening.

Even without factoring in the Vegas implications, I like the 49ers. It seems like the Jets exerted way too much energy during their back-to-back road victories at New England and Tennessee. They were probably almost better off losing to the Titans because they were extremely flat against Denver, and I don’t see them snapping out of it after a long trip to the West Coast.

Speaking of the West Coast, Eric Mangini has yet to cover a game out there in his career. Just this season, he was debacled by the Chargers and beaten by the lowly Raiders. The 49ers are playing extremely well right now, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them get the straight-up victory here.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Though the Jets lost, they’re still a game ahead of the Dolphins and Patriots. It seems like they could still be in a let-down funk after beating the Titans.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Perhaps the most lop-sided bet game of the week. People love the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 93% (121,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: 49ers.

Eric Mangini is 0-2 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Jets -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Jets 20
49ers +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
49ers 24, Jets 14

New England Patriots (7-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-10)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Patriots -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Patriots -4.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Injuries: Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, DE/OLB Adalius Thomas (IR), CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). Seahawks: OUT: WR Deion Branch*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR), G Mike Wahle (IR), C Chris Spencer (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR). DOUBTFUL: QB Matt Hasselbeck*.

No hate mail this week, but I did receive something from P. Diddy, who has been harrassing me lately. Here’s the latest from the man who would be nothing if it weren’t for Notorious B.I.G.:

i don see wat the big deale is with plax. hez jus goin 2 college. im guh hav 2 go 2 ther 2 1 day 2 get my props. it enhances a rapper (ther i speled it rite) lolol

I love how P.Diddy is proud of spelling “rapper” right, but then gets three of the next five words incorrect while boasting about it. And what’s up with all the numbers? His e-mail is more of a math problem than anything of relevance.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Anyway, let’s talk about a team with no Plaxico Burress-like issues. The Patriots are coming off a blowout loss in which they didn’t get blown out? Confused?

Let me clarify. If you didn’t watch the New England-Pittsburgh game, the Patriots, especially Randy Moss, dropped about a billion passes in the first half, including a few potential touchdowns. New England could have led that contest by at least two touchdowns at the break.

In the second half, the Patriots debacled themselves in the truest sense of the word. As Cousin Sal pointed out, Matt Slater had an epileptic seizure on a kickoff return, fumbling the ball and setting up an easy touchdown for Pittsburgh. New England then had three more careless turnover before Matt Cassel committed the team’s fifth give-away with a desperate interception.

Cassel and company should be better this week. Seattle’s defense won’t be able to shut down the run like the Steelers. Thus, Cassel will be able to convert third downs by abusing the Seahawks’ pathetic secondary, currently ranked 30th versus the pass.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I thought Matt Hasselbeck looked pretty good on Thanksgiving. He was 22-of-38 for 287 yards and a pick.

Unfortunately, Seattle couldn’t put up much on the scoreboard because they committed careless turnovers and penalties that killed promising drives.

Hasselbeck should continue to improve, especially with New England’s secondary being pretty abysmal, but the Seahawks will once again lack any sort of running game. The Patriots are just 16th versus the rush, but Seattle’s ground attack isn’t good enough to expose this minor liability.

RECAP: I’m an idiot. I’ve bet against the Patriots every single time they’ve come off a loss this season. They’ve been great in this role in prior years, but I assumed that was all Tom Brady. Apparently not.

Check out New England’s results after losing this season: 30-21 (at San Francisco), 41-7 (vs. Denver), 20-10 (vs. Buffalo) and 48-28 (at Miami).

I’m definitely not going against them after last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE: Matt Hasselbeck is doubtful with a back injury. Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace will likely start.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Patriots are coming off a loss, so there should be some sort of bounce-back effect. Bill Belichick seldom loses two in a row.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

No one wants any piece of the Seahawks after watching them on Thanksgiving.

Percentage of money on New England: 93% (129,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: Patriots.

Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 11-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Matt Hasselbeck is 8-3 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Patriots are 21-11 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Showers, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Seahawks 13
Patriots -6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Patriots 24, Seahawks 21

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)
Line: Cardinals by 14. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Cardinals -12.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Cardinals -11.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Injuries: Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Drew Bennett (IR), TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Orlando Pace*, OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr., KR Dante Hall (IR). Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

Believe it or not, there are still two people left in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 11, The Eclipse – Part 2, and very hot pictures of Claire. I like! You like?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As you may have guessed, this is my survivor pick. While the Dolphins had problems moving the chains against the Rams, Arizona shouldn’t have any issues doing so.

The Cardinals obviously have a pass-first offense, which kills St. Louis’ chances, given that the team is 31st against the pass. Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston all figure to post monstrous stats and fantasy numbers.

Arizona should be able to run the ball as well. Tim Hightower has struggled recently, but he actually posted 109 yards and a touchdown versus the Rams in Week 9, marking the only occasion he eclipsed 37 rushing yards in any contest.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Some of the Dolphins told reporters that Marc Bulger was telegraphing his passes last week, which would explain how Miami picked off three passes. Meanwhile, Torry Holt got so frustrated that he asked the coaching staff to pull him out of the game.

Despite all that, the Rams lost by just four points. How did this happen? Well, besides possible larceny, St. Louis was able to move the chains enough to keep the Dolphins off the field, thanks to the return of Steven Jackson and Orlando Pace.

Even though he battled Miami’s 12th-ranked rush defense, Jackson gained 94 yards on 21 carries. He and Pace are too talented to be slowed down by most defenses. I don’t consider the Cardinals special enough to be excluded from that pantheon.

RECAP: I’m taking the Rams for a few reasons. First, I think they’ll finish the season as a covering machine as long as Jackson and Pace stay in the lineup. Second, the Cardinals don’t need to win this game, so they won’t be playing with any sort of desperation. Third, Arizona could still be reeling after losing its huge statement game to the Giants. And finally, fading the public seems pretty lucrative this week.

SURVIVOR PICK: As mentioned, I’m taking the Cardinals. If you’ve already used them, there are plenty of other options this week. In order, I like Indianapolis, Tennessee, Arizona, San Diego, Chicago, Baltimore and New England. Note that the Vikings are not on this list. I simply don’t trust Brad Clueless and Gus Frerotte.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Cardinals don’t need to win another game this season.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 76% (93,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: Rams.

History: Cardinals have won the last 4 meetings.

Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 5-12 ATS in 2008.

Rams are 18-35 ATS in road games since 2001.

Cardinals are 0-8 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous eight instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -13.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cardinals 35, Rams 28
Rams +14 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Survivor Pick (11-2)
Cardinals 34, Rams 10

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Steelers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Steelers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones (IR), WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier, CB Pacman Jones (SUSP), S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR). DOUBTFUL: RB Marion Barber*. Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR).

I know I touched on Heroes in my last lead, but I have to mention that I found one of their commercials really strange. If you don’t follow the show, there has been some sort of lunar eclipse that has nullified everyone’s powers. During this commercial, the narrator asked, “Imagine a world with no heroes!” Umm… OK? I’ll do that. Let’s see… there would be terrorists senselessly bombing buildings, war in the Middle East, terrible reality TV shows, teams giving eight points blowing 17-0 leads… Ahh… make it stop, make it stop!!!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I thought the Cowboys got really sloppy against the Seahawks once they established a sizable lead. Seattle began blitzing, yet Dallas never countered with screens and draws. I guess you could argue that they weren’t completely focused because they were up by a wide margin. Still, Tony Romo was getting killed in the pocket.

The Cowboys will need to be more creative against the Steelers, who rank first against both the pass and the run. Pittsburgh also boasts a powerful pass rush.

Luckily, Romo has a powerful offensive line, stout rushing attack and athletic receivers to lean on. As great as the Steelers defense is, I can’t imagine that they’ll be able to completely shut down Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Marion Barber. It looks like Barber will be able to play.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: DeMarcus Ware, who also got hurt in the Thanksgiving game, had his x-rays come back negative, so there’s a good chance he’ll also be on the field. The Cowboys will need him; Pittsburgh’s Achilles’ heel is its offensive line. The Steelers have surrendered 36 sacks this year, so if Ware plays, protecting Ben Roethlisberger could be problematic.

That said, Dallas also has problems. The secondary has been a huge issue for the Cowboys all season, meaning Roethlisberger will be able to locate Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller downfield with relative ease.

The Cowboys are 17th against the rush, so they’ll have trouble containing Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore as well. It looks like both defenses could have trouble getting off the field.

RECAP: I feel as though this game means more to Dallas. Think about it – if the Cowboys lose, they could fall behind Atlanta, Washington and a slew of other teams for a wild card spot. If the Steelers lose, they could tie with Baltimore. However, this doesn’t really matter if they beat the Ravens next week.

Let’s assume for a minute that Baltimore wins and Pittsburgh loses this Sunday. If the Steelers come back and knock off the Ravens, they’ll essentially capture the division. They’ll only be one game ahead of Baltimore, but in reality, it’ll be a two-game margin because of the sweep. After that, all Pittsburgh would need to do is beat Cleveland in Week 17 (or the Titans in Week 16).

Meanwhile, you might look at Tony Romo’s abysmal record against the spread after Nov. 30 and automatically fade him. Delving deeper into the 1-8 number, only one of those games featured Romo as an underdog. He was favored in every other contest. So, maybe he chokes when all the pressure is on him. There won’t be any pressure here because the Cowboys aren’t expected to win.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
The Cowboys need a win more, but the Steelers are only one game ahead of the Ravens, so they won’t be flat or unfocused.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

People have jumped on the Steelers with Marion Barber out.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 71% (127,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: Steelers.

Tony Romo is 10-4 ATS on the road.

Tony Romo is 1-8 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (0-1 ATS as an underdog).

Steelers are 16-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 54-20 as a starter (43-30 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Snow showers, 24 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 20, Steelers 17
Cowboys +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 38.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Steelers 20, Cowboys 13

Washington Redskins (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 35.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Ravens -3.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR). Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever.

Bo-Bo is unstoppable! He won his second straight game to improve to 4-9. Despite the fact that he got nothing from Marvin Harrison (2 points), Tim Hightower (3), Marcedes Lewis (3) and New England’s defense (2), Bo-Bo was able to beat Just BlaZZzzeeee, 85-77. Luckily for Bo-Bo, his opponent started Philip Rivers over Donovan McNabb. Oops!

But I’m sure Bo-Bo doesn’t even realize that he won; he’s way too busy having sex with every single girl who has ever lived on this planet, and buying up property on Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and the Sun.

By the way, if Bo-Bo wins out, there’s a chance he could miss the playoffs by only two games!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Speaking of fantasy football, one guy who continues to be underrated is Joe Flacco. He doesn’t put up the gaudiest passing figures in the world, but he has two touchdowns in four of his previous five games. He had one score and 57 rushing yards in that lone exception (at the Giants).

Flacco’s best trait, which you won’t find on any box score, is converting third downs. Despite being an inexperienced rookie, Flacco does a masterful job moving the chains when his rushing attack can’t do it. Washington’s pass rush has only 19 sacks on the year, so Flacco will have all the time in the world to locate Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Todd Heap downfield.

Besides, it’s not like the Redskins can afford to send all-out blitzes or anything. They’ll need to stay honest against the run, as their defense ranks just 20th against it.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins haven’t covered many games lately (more on this later) because they simply can’t score. They’ve eclipsed the 20-point barrier only once since Oct. 5, and that was against Detroit. As Chris Berman would say, “Stats against the Lions should not count.”

Making matters worse, Clinton Portis is really banged up and could be a game-time decision. Even with Portis in the lineup, running the ball versus Baltimore figured to be a tough task, given that they’re tied for first in rush defense.

With the ground attack nullified, the Ravens will be able to tee off on Jason Campbell on third-and-long situations. Campbell hasn’t had much success converting those recently.

RECAP: I’m done picking against the Ravens. I’ve noted that they’ve been underrated the past month or so, yet I’ve gone against them thrice in the past six weeks.

Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, yet they continue to be undervalued because no one believes in Flacco.

Meanwhile, the Redskins continue to be overrated. Since knocking off Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive road tilts, they’re 1-5-1 against the spread. That one victory was by one point, beating Detroit 25-17 as a 7-point favorite. What’s that you say, Boomer? Oh, yeah. Stats against the Lions should not count.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

I’m pretty surprised that the public is backing the Ravens here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 75% (101,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Flurries, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Redskins 13
Ravens -5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 35 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Ravens 24, Redskins 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) at Carolina Panthers (9-3)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Panthers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Panthers -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: RB Earnest Graham (IR), FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR). Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 14 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring J.P. Zohan, Tom Hanks and a Gremlin.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Most people have the Buccaneers ranked anywhere between third and seventh in their power rankings. I have them 11th in my NFL Power Rankings. Tampa fans may ask if Jon Gruden stiffed me on an autograph or something. I don’t hate the Buccaneers; I just think they have no chance to advance deep into the playoffs (past Round 2) because their offense sucks and Jeff Garcia has absolutely no arm strength. Tampa Bay is terrible in the red zone, and I think Bill Simmons said it best, “It seems like an accident every time the Buccaneers get a first down.”

Don’t get me wrong; the Buccaneers will move the chains in this contest. Carolina’s rush defense, once dominant early on this season, has recently struggled mightily. Look for Warrick Dunn to have a big game. Cadillac Williams will also get some carries.

An effective ground attack will set up some easy conversions for Jeff Garcia. Antonio Bryant has been surprisingly effective this season, and I don’t see the Panthers slowing him down.

Like I said, Tampa Bay will move the ball. Once they get into the red zone, however, they’ll likely bog down and settle for Matt Bryant field goals. That’s just what they do against defenses that aren’t inept.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I also have Carolina ranked lower than most people do. I don’t trust them. They show up and look like Super Bowl contenders one week. Once everyone gets high on them, they struggle to beat the Raiders and Lions. It doesn’t really make sense.

DeAngelo Williams has emerged as one of the league’s leading rushers, but going against Tampa Bay’s 11th-ranked run defense won’t help his stats.

This should make things difficult for Jake Delhomme, but the Buccaneers have had some problems containing the long ball this year. Delhomme could find Steve Smith for a couple of massive gains.

RECAP: I really don’t like either side here. The Buccaneers are limited on offense, while the Panthers are terribly inconsistent.

What I’m going to do is side with Carolina. All the home teams seem to be winning in these NFC South matchups. In fact, NFC South hosts are 22-2 this year. I’ll take my chances with Carolina, even though I’m not really all that confident.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A battle for first place in the NFC South and a bye week in the Doggone Playoff. No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
About equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 59% (180,000 bets)

The Trends: Edge: None.

History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Vengeance: John Fox is 5-2 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.

Buccaneers are 10-21 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.

Buccaneers are 6-12 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Panthers are 18-26 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 12-19 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Clear, 36 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 19
Panthers -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 38.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Panthers 38, Buccaneers 23

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Raiders at Chargers, Eagles at Giants, Browns at Titans, Falcons at Saints, Texans at Packers, Bengals at Colts, Vikings at Lions, Jaguars at Bears

Printable version of Week 14 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -0.5, Giants -0.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550

Live Dog: Jaguars +250 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Falcons +140 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: 49ers +165 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$160

Live Dog: Cowboys +125 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschology Parlay: Browns +14, Lions +10, Chiefs +9, 49ers +4, Patriots -6.5, Rams +14 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)