NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2023: Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Carolina Panthers (1-6)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Gardner Minshew looked so great in Week 2, but has been a turnover machine ever since he took over for Anthony Richardson the second time. His taxing schedule may have had something to do with it. Since Minshew became the starter in the wake of Richardson’s season-ending injury, he has battled nothing but top-12 pass defenses. The Jaguars, Browns and Saints all have rattled him.

It only gets marginally easier against the Panthers. This would have been a nice matchup for Minshew several weeks ago, but the Panthers have gotten most of their injured players back from injury. They forced C.J. Stroud into his lowest yards output last week, and they could give Minshew similar fits. Minshew will likely continue to commit turnovers as he gets pressured by Brian Burns.

The Colts can make sure this doesn’t happen by establishing Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. The two talented backs have a great matchup. While the Panthers thrive at stopping the pass and getting to the quarterback, they really struggle to stop the run.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Unlike the Panthers, the Colts don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback. They have DeForest Buckner, but that’s about it. They’re bottom 10 in pressure rate, which has to be music to Bryce Young’s ears.

Young plays behind a poor offensive line, but if he can get some semblance of pass protection in this game, he should be able to have a somewhat decent performance. He’ll need the protection because the Colts are often good at slowing down slot receivers, which obviously means that Adam Thielen, one of the newest Reignmakers superstars, won’t have the best matchup.

Young will also be able to feed the ball to his new starting running back, Chuba Hubbard. The Colts used to rank highly in run defense, but that hasn’t been the case since they lost Grover Stewart to a suspension.

RECAP: This spread is incorrect according to the metrics. According to net adjusted EPA rankings, the Panthers are better than the Colts. They’re one spot above Indianapolis, which is an overrated team at 3-5. The defense is the big problem, as it’s ranked just 29th. Meanwhile, the Panthers are now much better defensively than they were prior to their bye because they’ve gotten some key pieces back from injury. Knowing this, their ability to slow down Stroud wasn’t too much of a surprise.

I’d like to bet the Panthers in this spot because I like what their defense is capable of doing to Minshew, who should continue to commit turnovers. Plus, the Colts could be distracted with a Germany game on the horizon. However, I just can’t bring myself to bet Young at anything less than +3. If we get the full field goal, I’ll consider the Panthers as a small bet, but I’m just going to pencil them in for no units at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something that dawned on me is that this is the easiest game for the Colts recently. In consecutive weeks, they’ve battled the Jaguars, Browns and Saints, all of whom are in or near the top 10 of adjusted net EPA. The Panthers are in the bottom 10. There’s a chance Indianapolis will look much better than it has recently for that reason. Also, it’s worth noting that a couple of Panthers missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts have a ton of injuries. In addition to Anthony Richardson, they’re down their top two cornerbacks, their best linebacker, their best run-stuffing defensive tackle, and their right tackle. Do they deserve to be favored over the Panthers? Maybe, but probably not. I’m going to bet the Panthers after all.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Jonathan Taylor in this game. The Panthers are dead last in run defense EPA. Taylor has gone over 68.5 rushing yards in the past two games, and yet he battled the Saints and Browns, two teams that are great against the run. Taylor will also see more of a workload with Zack Moss a bit banged up. The best vig is -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNNING NOTES: Sharp money has come in on the Panthers, moving this line further away from +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bring this line down to +1.5. I’ve decided not to bet this game because I still have concerns about this being a repeat of Colts-Texans in Week 2. If you want to bet the Panthers, the best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

New York Giants (2-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-5)
Line: Raiders by 1.5. Total: 38.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo embarrassed himself on Monday night. Entering the fourth quarter, Garoppolo was just 6-of-14 for 62 yards and an interception, which was a brutal shot into the end zone that was telegraphed. Garoppolo suffered some drops, but seemed to forget that Jakobi Meyers existed. He then missed Davante Adams on a couple of deep touchdowns and took countless sacks. It’s rather apparent that the Raiders will need to explore other options next offseason.

Garoppolo will have an even tougher matchup in this game, as the Giants have improved tremendously against the pass in recent weeks. Part of the reason for this has been Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has been unblockable in most instances. The Raiders can’t block, so this will be a huge problem.

There is some hope here, however, as the Giants still aren’t very good against the run and will take a hit with Leonard Williams gone. Josh Jacobs ran well Monday night when given the chance, and this is an easier matchup than the battle against Detroit.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I find it incredibly convenient that Daniel Jones has been cleared to play the game after Tyrod Taylor struggled and then got hurt. I get the feeling that the Giants were waiting on Jones because they wanted to give Taylor a chance to start while he was performing well. I could be off base, but if the coaching staff wanted to keep Taylor under center, it would have created some major drama had they opted for him over Jones.

Jones will be back, and he’ll have an easy matchup against a porous Raiders secondary. The question is whether or not he’ll get adequate blocking. It’ll help if Andrew Thomas can return from injury, but that remains to be seen. It’ll be ideal to have Thomas on the field to shield Jones from Maxx Crosby.

Then again, the Giants will be able to ram the ball down the Raiders’ throat. This is exactly what the Lions did, generating 200 rushing yards in the Monday night contest. Jahmyr Gibbs just had a career performance behind an offensive line missing two starters, so Saquon Barkley could be in for a huge game.

RECAP: It really sucks that the Raiders looked so miserable on Monday night. We had a great +3 line available, but that’s now gone because of their disgusting display.

However, I still think there’s money to be made fading the Raiders. They’re now 3-5, but they’re easily one of the worst teams in the NFL. They should also be exhausted after a two-game road trip in the central and eastern time zones and then a flight back to Nevada on a short work week.

Given the Raiders’ fatigue, the Giants look very appealing, even with the +3 gone. Their defense has improved markedly in the past few weeks, while Jones figures to return from injury. I made this line Giants -2.5, while EPA has it at Giants -2. If Andrew Thomas returns, I could be talked into this number being New York -3.

With the line value and the Raiders’ travel woes, the Giants will be one of my higher plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders have made the switch to Aidan O’Connell, which is for the best. I still like the Giants, especially with Daniel Jones being full in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Daniel Jones is officially due back, while Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal are questionable after being limited all week. The Raiders have several defensive injuries that won’t do them any favors against Saquon Barkley. Some have brought up the new coaching angle. Interim coaches are 14-10 against the spread in their first game since 2010. That’s OK, but nothing to write home about.

SUNDAY MORNNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Andrew Thomas’ status. Hopefully we get better injury luck than we did with the Vikings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Andrew “Cordy Glenn” Thomas and Evan Neal are active, which is huge for the Giants. The sharps are on New York, bringing this line down to +1 at some books. BetMGM and Caesars still has +1.5 available.

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 46.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s crazy to think that this is the first time that Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott will be playing against each other since the initial meeting between the two teams in 2021, back when Nick Sirianni was coaching his third-ever game for the Eagles. Since then, the Eagles have started Gardner Minshew twice, while Dallas went with Cooper Rush in this matchup in Philadelphia around this time last year.

The Cowboys had an elite pass rush last season, and yet they couldn’t rattle Hurts at all because Philadelphia’s elite offensive line protected him so well. Now, the Cowboys’ pass rush isn’t as potent. It’s still very good, but ranks near the outer range of the top 10. Hurts still gets terrific blocking, so he’ll have plenty of time to find A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for big gains.

Hurts will have to do some scrambling for the Eagles to have success on the ground, however. The Cowboys rank No. 6 versus the rush, so they’ll be able to contain D’Andre Swift.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Like the Eagles, the Cowboys won’t be able to do much while trying to rush the football. Tony Pollard hasn’t been very productive this year, and yet this will be his toughest matchup yet. Philadelphia is very stout against the run, thanks to their mammoth Georgia defensive tackles.

This, however, doesn’t mean the Cowboys will be stymied offensively. On the contrary, Dallas has a better chance of offensive success than the Eagles because of the four units in this game, Philadelphia’s defense is easily the worst, ranking 22nd in EPA. The Eagles have major problems in coverage, struggling to defend outside and slot receivers alike. CeeDee Lamb is coming off a huge game and could enjoy similar success this week.

The only way the Eagles have a chance to stop the pass is pressuring the opposing quarterback, but that may not be possible in this game. Dak Prescott tends to struggle when there are offensive line injuries, but there’s nothing wrong with Dallas’ blocking at the moment. The one exception is that Tyron Smith missed last week’s affair, but he could easily return this Sunday.

RECAP: I think I’m going to make lots of Eagles fans angry when I say this, but I think the inferior team is favored in this game. “How can that be,” you might wonder. “The Eagles have the best record in the NFL! Team records mean everything!”

If you had this thought pop into your head, I must offer my condolences for ESPN brainwashing you. Team records, after all, are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer. They don’t mean anything outside of providing betting opportunities. Ask yourself this: If the Eagles are so great because they’re 7-1, why are they only -3 versus Dallas at home?

The Eagles are “only” -3 because they’re not as great as their record says they are. Their defense is poor, ranking 22nd. They nearly lost to the Redskins twice. Dallas is better in the metrics overall, so I made this line Philadelphia -1.5. The EPA numbers say this should be a pick ’em.

I like the idea of getting four key numbers with the superior team. I’m going to be betting a few units on Dallas.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ve seen a bit of sharp money come in on Dallas, but not a lot. I expected more, but it’s still early in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharp money has evened out, and there aren’t many injuries on either side. I still like the Cowboys a good deal.

SUNDAY MORNNING NOTES: Still no line movement off +3. I wonder if we’ll see the sharps come in on either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No injury news, no sharp action. The best line is +3 +100 at Bookmaker and Bovada.

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
Line: Bengals by 1.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Cincinnati’s bye week came at the perfect time. Joe Burrow had shown signs of recovery prior to the week off, but there was still a very real chance that he would aggravate his calf like he did against the Ravens in Week 2. The bye helped him heal fully, and we saw the result versus the 49ers. All Burrow did was start 19-of-19 and complete 28-of-32 passes.

It’s crazy to think what Burrow is capable of against lesser defenses, given that he was battling the 49ers last week. The Bills would have been a very difficult matchup back in September, but their defense isn’t nearly as potent right now because of all the injuries they’ve suffered. Once in the top five of defense, the Bills now rank 23rd in defensive EPA. They can’t cover whatsoever with Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano injured. Rasul Douglas’ presence will help, but Burrow will still be able to exploit these weaknesses by connecting with the right receivers.

The Bills are also very poor at stopping the run, as they made Rachaad White look like a competent back for a change last week. They’re likely going to have issues with Joe Mixon, who looked spry for the first time this season in last week’s game. Apparently, the bye came at the right time for him as well.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had issues with their offense in two games leading up to last Thursday’s affair as well. It appeared as though Josh Allen was laboring through an injury he suffered versus the Giants, but he seemed healthy for the first time since the New York contest. With extra rest, Allen should be 100 percent for this contest.

However, there’s no guarantee that Allen will be able to perform at the highest level because Cincinnati’s defense has improved in recent games. The Bengals have a terrific pass rush, ranking just outside the top 10 in pressure rate. They were able to rattle Allen in the playoff victory last January, but Allen is protected much better at the moment.

The Bengals won’t have to defend the run very much, so they’ll have a chance to limit Buffalo’s offense a bit by focusing more on stopping Allen and his receivers. The secondary will need all the help it can get from the pass rush because some of the young players the front office has added recently have not lived up to expectations.

RECAP: Congratulations if you bet the Bengals ahead of time. They were +1.5 on the advance spread. The line has moved 4.5 points because of what transpired last week!

I’m all for fading huge line moves like this, but in this case, I believe it to be warranted. The Bengals are back. Burrow was incredible versus the 49ers, while the running game and defense both looked excellent.

Assuming none of this was a mirage, the Bengals are third in adjusted net EPA. As a result, they should be -4.5 over the Bills, who have a poor defense in the wake of all their injuries. Douglas changes things a bit, but there are still plenty of holes.

I plan on betting the Bengals for a couple of units, but it’s just a bummer that we lost so much line value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Josh Allen missed Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Buccaneers. As if the Bengals weren’t already enticing enough…

SATURDAY NOTES: Josh Allen is going to play, which is hardly a surprise. However, the fact that he’s even on the injury report has to be disconcerting to those thinking about betting the Bills. That said, this spread reeks of shady business. Why is this line dropping with so much money on Cincinnati? Will there be some sort of Damar Hamlin-related voodoo? I’ve been scared off this game.

SUNDAY MORNNING NOTES: The line finally moved toward the Bengals, which is a good sign if you like them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Bills at +3, but not so much at this number. I still like the Bengals, but feel as though I’ll be screwed somehow if I bet them, whether it’s via an injured kicker, or an injured quarterback, or inches shy twice at the goal line. Anyway, the best number is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) at New York Jets (4-3)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 39.5.
Monday, Nov. 6, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, otherwise known as the suburbs of New York, the dumbest city in the world except for Dallas! Tonight, the San Diego Chargers take on the New York Jets. As a super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles, I can say that we hate the New York Jets just as much as the New York Giants because the Jets beat us and cheated while they did it. That is the only way you can ever beat my Philadelphia Eagles. Cheating or stealing our players. The only way the New York Jets can ever beat my Philadelphia Eagles is if they steal someone like Nick Foles!

Emmitt: Thanks, Gau. I real surprise that you gived real good analysisim for the National League of Football. When I play for the Dallas Texas, our owner Jimmy Jones, stolened lots of players like Daniel Sanders and Tom Aikmanning. Then, someone stolened me and I go play for the Arizona Red Bird Guys at the end. My wife putted me on the side of a milkshake carton because I gottened stolened.

Reilly: Emmitt, I hope someone besides Mother looks for me someday when I’m kidnapped. Maybe my new hot pop singer wife. Mother says I can do better than that fraud Travis Kelce and his skank girlfriend Taylor Swift. The producers lined up some options for me already, but now that we’re in New York, they lined up Beyonce. Beyonce, welcome to the show and maybe our wedding. Will you admit to being my girlfriend already?

Beyonce: I need a man I can trust after my husband cheated on me. Can you be that man, Timmy?

Reilly: My name is Kevin, and I’m a super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles. I heard that your husband, Jay-X cheated on you. I will never do that because Mother would ground me by not letting me watch my Philadelphia Eagles anymore. As a super fan, I need to watch my Philadelphia Eagles.

Tollefson: You tell her, Reilly. Any woman you kidnap who cooks and cleans naked for you needs to understand the value of watching football on Sundays. If one of your female slaves complains about you watching football on Sundays, you’re better off burying her body in the desert or throwing it into the ocean. Your choice.

Reilly: That makes sense, but I need Beyonce to know that she can trust me. I’ll never cheat on her like that stupid Jay-X fellow. His music sucks, and I’m not just saying that because Mother says I’m not old enough to buy his CDs. General Senator John Festerman, can you please vouch for me and tell Beyonce that I’ll never cheat on her?

John Fetterman: Buenos dias, mi ensalada favorita. Amazon Prime Day is the fourth February of every autumn week. When you go to the Amazon, only squirrels will follow you. You must go to the clock tower and get the man who climbs. Then, the clock tower crumbles. The clock tower does not crumble if you don’t go. Debes comer pimientos si ves que el reloj marca las cinco.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! And I don’t even speak Russian, but that was very impressive. I don’t speak Russian because Mother says it’s the devil. Beyonce, wait until you meet Mother. You two will be like peas in a pod. Soon enough I won’t be driving her to Bingo night or rubbing her feet alone. Soon, we’ll be doing it together.

Beyonce: Oh, Kevin, you’re a real man. My husband Jay-Z wouldn’t even introduce me to his mother. I want you to be my boyfriend. I just want you to promise that there’s no one between us. Show me your wallet to make sure there’s no one else’s picture in there.

Reilly: Uhh, I don’t think I can show you my wallet. Mother says that showing wallets to girls is the Devil.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news about your wallet, Kevin, that Beyonce will find interesting, Kevin. Sources tell me that Kevin has pictures of someone in their bikini in his wallet, Kevin. And Kevin, sources tell me that someone is Nick Foles, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: No, this is ridiculous. Beyonce, I don’t have pictures of Nick Foles in a bikini in my wallet. I have those pictures on my computer and phone, but not my wallet! OK fine, they’re in my wallet, too! President Joe Biden, tell Beyonce that guys should have pictures of Nick Foles in a bikini in their wallet!

Joe Biden: Now look here, you tan dog calvalry man. You can’t do more pushups than me, Fat. I was doing pushups back in the day when I was raised in an African American gym. A man named Apollo there trained me. Taught me everything he knows, and then I taught him everything I know because before that, I was raised in a North Korean gym. I crossed the DMZ, first man to ever to do it. I shook hands with the man, you know, the guy. He said, “George, you’re a great man who can do a lot of pushups.” I says, “Yes, a man named Apollo trained me when I lived in a Hispanic gym growing up.” Everyone there used to have pictures in their wallet or their Kaleidoscope. There was this 18-year-old girl, and I had pictures of her youngest daughter in a bikini my Kaleidoscope. She was my girlfriend and she was great to shower with, heh heh heh. Now if you’ll excuse me, my butt is wet so I have to go to the situation room.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he grew up in an African American gym, which is a total lie and a total fraud because I grew up in all the African American gyms, and I never saw Sleepy Joe anymore because he probably grew up in the loser gym because Sleepy Joe is a total loser and a total disgrace, but not like that Apollo fellow he mentioned, Apollo – great guy, that Apollo, the best guy because he called me the other day and he said, “Mr. President, I trained you to be the best, and now you are the best,” and I said, “Oh no, I’m great, but not the best, you’re the best, Apollo,” and he said, “No, Mr. President, the time has come for you to accept that you’re the best,” and so I said, “You’re right, it’s time for me to say that I’m the best, and Sleepy Joe is the worst because Sleepy Joe is a total disaster and a total disgrace,” and Apollo agreed because he’s smart, that Apollo, and frankly, everyone else here is smart compared to that total loser Sleepy Joe.

Wolfley: SOMETHING ISN’T ADDING UP HERE BECAUSE APOLLO ALSO CALLED ME AND SAID I WAS THE BEST, AT LEAST AMONG MEN IN PHONE BOOTHS WITH MOUSE PADS FOR TOENAILS.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! This is serious, here. I’m about to land my first girlfriend, but I’m ruined because of that Adam Schefter loser who just outed me for having pictures of Nick Foles in a bikini in my wallet, which is totally a normal thing for any super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles.

Beyonce: I’m in such pain right now from seeing another one of my men with a Betty. Betty Foles. I feel a song coming on right now. Grape juice, grape juice, grape juice, I was served grapes, and I made grape juice, mama said grape juice, grape juice, grape juice, la la la.

Reilly: No, I swear, OK, I’ll only have my Nick Foles bikini pictures in my wallet on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and every other Sunday! Tell her it’s a great deal, New Daddy!

Jay Cutler: WTF is even happening here?

Reilly: No, now I’m forever going to be known as the guy who was called grape juice in that song like Jay-X was called lemonade!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing fruits, Kevin. Why don’t we discuss fruits, Kevin? Let’s start with lemons, Kevin. Sometimes you can turn lemons into lemonade, Kevin. Then there’s grapes, Kevin. That’s where grape juice comes from, Kevin. How about strawberries, Kevin? Can’t make strawberry juice without strawberries, Kevin. Why don’t we jump to apples, Kevin? Let’s chat about pineapples, Kevin. Don’t forget watermelons, Kevin. And how about the biggest fruit of them all, Kevin, which would be Kevin Reilly, Kevin?

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I AM NOT A GAY FRUIT, YOU’RE THE GAY FRUIT! I ALMOST FORCED BEYONCE TO BE MY GIRLFRIEND, BUT NEXT TIME I WON’T HAVE THE NICK FOLES BIKINI PICTURES IN MY WALLET, I’LL JUST PUT THEM IN MY PHONE INSTEAD IF MOTHER UNLOCKS THE CAMERA FEATURE! We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers couldn’t muster a single offensive point in the second half of their loss against the Chiefs, yet they had a scoring explosion against the Bears. The difference was obviously the caliber of defense they faced, as Kansas City’s elite defense was a far tougher opponent than a Chicago unit missing its top two safeties.

The Jets are obviously closer to the level of the Chiefs, and they’re actually ranked even higher per the metrics. They have two terrific cornerbacks and a devastating pass rush ranked first in pressure rate. They don’t have to blitz to get to the quarterback, which is crucial. Rattling Herbert can really damage the Charger offense, as Herbert’s completion percentage drops nearly 30 percentage points when he’s pressured compared to being kept clean.

If there’s a weakness to this Jets defense, it’s how they handle the run. They aren’t very weak against it, but stopping it is not a strength either. With that in mind, it’s a huge plus for the Jets that the Chargers don’t run very well. Sure, Austin Ekeler exists, but he typically does his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets’ performance last week set NFL offenses back nearly a century. It was a disgusting display to watch, as the Jets and Giants combined for more punts than points. Zach Wilson spent the afternoon drifting backward in the pocket and throwing short of the sticks. He gave the Jets no hope until the very end when he made a couple of great throws.

Wilson could do better this week. The Giants have improved markedly on the defensive side of the ball, shutting down the Bills and Redskins prior to battling the Jets. The Chargers, on the other hand, have some major weaknesses in the secondary. Their pass rush could be a problem, however, as Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have awakened after slow starts.

The Chargers happen to be better versus the run than the pass, which isn’t ideal for this matchup because the Jets are so reliant on Breece Hall. However, Hall has shown that he can go the distance on any play, whether it’s as a rusher or a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread. What have the Chargers done this year to warrant being a field goal favorite on the road? Sure, they beat the Bears on Sunday night, but they were the superior team and were able to take advantage of one-sided officiating and drops. Otherwise, the Chargers barely beat the Vikings and squeaked by the Aidan O’Connell-led Raiders.

The Jets have embarrassed great quarterbacks all year, handing Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts their worst (non-flu) performances to date. I don’t see why they can’t treat Herbert similarly. And sure, you’re backing Wilson over Herbert, but that worked versus Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia. Plus, Wilson will have a much easier matchup this week, as the Chargers can’t defend the pass at all.

With that in mind, I love the value with the Jets at +3, which moved from the advance line of +1.5. I made this spread Jets -1. EPA says it should be Jets -2. Regardless, we’re getting four key numbers with the superior team. Yes, the superior team. Outside of quarterback and left tackle, where are the Chargers better than the Jets? New York has the superior defense and running game. I also like the coaching staff more. Robert Saleh always seems to rally the troops well in these home underdog games, so sign me up for a big bet on the Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Jets at +3, which I can’t say is much of a surprise. Hopefully New York embarrasses another talented quarterback.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some concern about center and right guard, but those positions will be manned by Joe Tippman and Billy Turner, so I’m not concerned about them. I’m back to four units on the Jets.

SUNDAY MORNNING NOTES: I may lock in the Jets at some point today. I think we could see the line move down to +3 now that the center situation isn’t as dire for the Jets.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I wish I had followed my advice yeterday because some sharp money has moved this line to +3 +100. You can still get +3.5 -115 at PointsBet, which I’ll lock in now. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: I have two player props I like tonight. I’m going over Garrett Wilson receiving yards, with the best number being over 66.5 -115 at BetMGM. Wilson has cleared this number in each of the past two games, and now he gets a Chargers defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to outside receivers. I’m also betting the over 26.5 receiving yards for Gerald Everett, who is returning to action this week. The Jets funnel the pass production to the middle of the field. The best vig for Everett is -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked this in earlier. The best line is still +3.5 -115 at PointsBet. Other than that, I see either +3 +102 or +3.5 -120 at Bookmaker. The sharps have been on both sides of this game.