NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
2024 NFL Picks: 65-65-5 (-$2,315)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Week 8 Analysis: We’ve been waiting for a week like this for a long time. We’ve had so much bad luck this year, so it was great to have a massive result in Week 8. We got lucky in our big play, but still suffered some bad breaks. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 3 units (win): The special teams nonsense usually goes against us, but the Lions had a huge day in that regard.

Browns, 3 units (win): If only we bet the moneyline in this one! I was confident in Cleveland covering, but I wasn’t too bullish on their chances to pull the outright upset.

Colts, 5 units (win): We lucked out in this game. The Texans were close to kicking the front-door field goal to go up six, but Joe Mixon fumbled to preserve the cover.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): We had the moneyline in this one as well. It felt good to win against Mike McDaniel after all the grief he has caused us this year.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): Here’s where we got unlucky. The Chiefs were up 14 with two minutes to go, but Gardner Minshew got the back-door touchdown. Where was this two years ago when we had Minshew against the Cowboys for our Pick of the Month? Had the Eagles covered the +5.5 in that game, I would have won $50,000 in the Supercontest mini-contest. Instead, I lost $880.

Broncos, 3 units (win): The Panthers went up 7-0, but Denver scored 28 unanswered to cover easily.

Giants, 3 units (loss): This was a stupid pick. Although we lost on special teams nonsense, negating the Lions victory, I should have never wagered three units on a garbage team like the Giants.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers can’t be happy to have this matchup in a must-win game. The Texans pressure the quarterback at the eighth-highest clip in the NFL, and Rodgers has seen tons of pressure. The Texans hounded Anthony Richardson last week, and they’ll keep their pass rush going against Rodgers, who is hobbled and may not be able to avoid sacks.

It won’t help Rodgers’ cause that he won’t have Allen Lazard at his disposal. Sure, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are starting on the outside, but the Texans are weakest in the secondary when it comes to defending the slot, which is where Lazard played. Houston has done a good job of clamping down on outside receivers recently, and Rodgers and Adams still haven’t reestablished their chemistry.

The Texans are at their worst while trying to defend the run on this side of the ball. The Jets couldn’t get Breece Hall going on Sunday, so they’ll have to atone for their mistakes in this matchup.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans aren’t the only team in this game that struggles to stop the run. The same can be said of the Jets, who are infamous for allowing huge rushing performances. Joe Mixon has been terrific since returning from injury, and he’ll be difficult to stop. And we know Mixon will get the ball frequently because no one runs it more than Bobby Slowik on early downs.

Mixon will need to be established because Houston’s passing attack has greatly diminished as a result of a new injury. Nico Collins was already out, and now the Texans will be without Stefon Diggs, who got hurt last week. Tank Dell will be the top receiver, which would ordinarily be fine except he’s not 100 percent because he has dealt with an injury and a gun shot earlier this season. John Metchie will step in as the second option.

There’s no guarantee C.J. Stroud will even be able to deliver the ball to Dell and Metchie. His blocking hasn’t been as good this year, so it’s very crucial that Mixon is established to keep Stroud out of third-and-long situations.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Texans may seem like the better team because the Jets have been a complete mess recently. They lost to the Patriots, for crying out loud. Their blocking is a problem, while most of the team doesn’t appear to have any chemistry. The poor coaching is an issue as well.

However, Houston has its own issues. The team is down multiple receivers, which presents a big problem against the Jets’ secondary. I’m also not a fan of Houston’s offensive play-calling.

The coaching is the biggest factor though. The Jets have a rookie interim head coach tasked with preparing his team against a tough opponent on just three days. That seems like an incredibly difficult hurdle to overcome, so I will be on Houston.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Texans are a massive public dog. I’m glad I don’t have the urge to bet them, but I would if I had to choose a side. The Jets are still down their top three safeties, as well as Alijah Vera-Tucker and C.J. Mosley. They’re also poorly coached by men who will have to prepare them on just three days of rest.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love both running backs to go over. Both run defenses stink, and both teams love giving the ball to their primary backs. Of the two, Breece Hall has the lower number, so I will be betting him primarily. The best number is over 65.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss Hall over 65.5 rushing yards with Joe Mixon over 81.5 rushing yards, C.J. Stroud over 8.5 rushing yards, and Braelon Allen under 20.5 rushing yards. Stroud is missing his top two receivers against a great Jets secondary, so he probably knows that he’ll have to do some damage with his legs. As for Allen, he was given 12 carries last week, but that was just to rest Hall for this game. He’ll be back to 3-5 carries in this contest. This $25 parlay is boosted 30 percent on FanDuel, and it pays $323.94. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is throwing tons of money on the Texans like this is the easiest bet in the world. The sharps are on the Jets. I get why – the Jets have been unlucky this year, while Houston is overrated – but I worry about the Jets’ interim head coach preparing his team on just three days. I think the public is correct this time, and thanks to the sharps, we have a viable +3 (-125) available at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The Texans are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 86% (268,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-93 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-25 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Clear, 75 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots won last week, but ownership and the front office couldn’t have been too excited. Not only did the victory worsen draft positioning; the win came without the services of Drake Maye, who suffered a concussion on an innocent-looking scramble. Jacoby Brissett somehow willed the team to victory over the Jets.

It’s unclear if Maye will be able to start. Regardless, New England’s quarterback will be tasked with carrying the offense because the Titans are often strong against the run. Tennessee didn’t have T’Vondre Sweat last week to help in that regard, but Sweat could be back this week, as could L’Jarius Sneed, who missed the past couple of games.

Rhamondre Stevenson won’t see much running room, so it’ll be up to Brissett or Maye. The duo loves throwing to Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas, but both options could be taken away by the Titans, who tend to defend the middle of the field rather well. Tennessee doesn’t generate a great pass rush in most cases, but things could be different this time because New England’s offensive line is broken.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans started Mason Rudolph for the second week in a row as a result of Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Rudolph didn’t make any of Levis’ patented bone-headed plays in his first start, but he made Levis-type throws versus the Lions. Then again, he delivered some nice strikes at the beginning of the game, as Calvin Ridley racked up 100-plus receiving yards in the opening quarter alone.

Rudolph couldn’t maintain this success against the Lions, but perhaps he’ll have better luck against the Patriots, who have a miserable defense. New England has the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and Christian Gonzalez hasn’t been nearly as great as he was last year. Rudolph should be able to get the ball to Ridley the entire afternoon in this matchup.

Then again, Rudolph may not need to do much. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Tony Pollard projects very well against them.

RECAP: What a shame that we can’t fade both of these teams this week. The Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the Patriots, who are even worse than them, are coming off their “Super Bowl” win against the Jets.

This truly is a horrible spot for New England. It’s very difficult for poor teams to sustain success. As evidence, teams with a winning percentage of .300 or worse coming off a win as underdogs of seven or more have a cover rate of about 42 percent since the lockout. I normally dont like trends, but it makes sense that bad teams wouldn’t be able to continue playing well after a victory.

I also like backing teams off humiliating defeats. The Titans are a bit different because they are awful, but they are playing against another horrendous team. They match up well against the Patriots, as they’ll be able to run with Pollard against a poor run defense, and they’ll be able to contain Stevenson without worrying about Maye’s scrambles (assuming Maye is out.) I like fading backup quarterbacks against top-12 defenses, and we have that situation in this matchup.

I’m going to be on the Titans for a few units, assuming we get -3. However, the line has crept up to -3.5 in some books. The line of -3.5 is the worst spread in the NFL, so I wouldn’t recommend laying that number with a bad team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed, and T’Vondre Sweat all missed Wednesday’s practice. If they’re all out, I won’t have any interest in betting on the Titans.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not going to have anything on this game. I wanted to bet the over on Tony Pollard, but he may not play.

SATURDAY NOTES: L’Jarius Sneed is definitely out, so the Titans have cluster injuries at cornerback. If that were it, that wouldn’t be the worst thing against the Patriots, but Tennessee also listed the following players as questionable despite not having any of them practice all week: Tony Pollard, T’Vondre Sweat, Tyler Boyd, and Dillon Radunz. The Titans are way too banged up to lay -3.5 with them, but then again, New England will be very flat off its victory over the Jets. This is a non-bet for me now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard, T’Vondre Sweat, and Tyler Boyd will play. I’d be willing to bet the Titans at -3, which is what the sharps have done. Most of the viable -3 lines are gone, but you can get -3 -118 at BetRivers. I’m going to bet two units on Tennessee at -3 -118. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Patriots are coming off their Super Bowl win, while the Titans were embarrassed.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -3.

Computer Model: Titans -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

The Patriots are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 20-14 ATS through seven weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -12.5

Steelers -6

Ravens -7.5

Chiefs -8.5

Packers -3.5

Jets -7

Texans -5

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This was truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides were now 20-14 on the year, as sportsbooks had taken a huge beating.

Well, the turntables turned in Week 8 because the public was 2-5, only winning with the Lions and Steelers. Many teasers surely failed as well with Baltimore losing outright. The public is now 22-19.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Redskins -3.5

Texans +2

Lions -3.5

Vikings -6

Bills -6.5

Eagles -7.5

Patriots +3.5

If you’ve parlayed all the publicly backed teams the past two weeks, you’re doing very well for yourself right now. Will this continue?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: My dad called me Sunday morning to see who I liked in the Cleveland-Baltimore game – he doesn’t know how to access this Web site or my YouTube channel – and I told him I was on the Browns. “Why? They can’t score!” he argued. I told him that it was a new day in Cleveland because Jameis Winston was slated to start. “Besides, Baltimore’s defense sucks,” I said. Indeed, Cleveland had a rare offensive outburst in an upset victory over the Ravens.

I wouldn’t be too fooled by Winston. Yes, he’s much better than Deshaun Watson, but he can also be erratic with the ball. He was battling an already-poor Baltimore secondary missing its top two cornerbacks, and he was lucky that the game-deciding interception was dropped. He’ll now be confronted with a much more difficult matchup in this game. Whereas the Ravens are 23rd in adjusted defensive EPA, the Chargers are second. San Angeles doesn’t give up much to outside receivers, so Cedric Tillman won’t repeat his Week 8 performance. The only area of weakness from the pass defense is what the Chargers allow to tight ends, so David Njoku will be the only functional player in Cleveland’s aerial attack.

The Chargers also happen to be stout against the run in most cases. They had a rare poor performance in this regard last Monday night against Arizona, but they rank sixth versus ground games. Nick Chubb isn’t 100 percent anyway, so I wouldn’t count on much from him.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Most casual fans will consider the Browns to have a great defense as well, but that hasn’t been the case. Cleveland is 21st in adjusted defensive EPA, and the team will be short-handed on this side of the ball this week. Denzel Ward suffered yet another concussion – the sixth of his career – while Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was taken off the field on a stretcher during Sunday’s game. Outside of Myles Garrett, these are Cleveland’s top two defensive players.

Owusu-Koramoah was outstanding in run defense, so he’ll sorely be missed in this matchup. J.K. Dobbins has enjoyed a fantastic season coming back from a torn Achilles, so he projects well without Cleveland’s star linebacker being on the field.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert needs every break he can get because of his lackluster receiving corps. His wideouts didn’t project well against a secondary with Ward in it, but with the top cornerback sidelined, Herbert shouldn’t have issues throwing the ball, given that the rest of Cleveland’s cornerbacks have struggled this year. Herbert is also well protected, so Garrett won’t be as big of a factor as he normally is against mediocre or worse tackles.

RECAP: I wrote in the previous capsule that it’s often a winning strategy to fade bad teams coming off big upset victories. This, of course, applies to Cleveland. I wouldn’t say that the Browns are horrible like the Patriots, Titans, or Panthers, but they’re not very good, especially with their new defensive injuries to Owusu-Koramoah and Ward. Their game last week against the Ravens was their “Super Bowl.” They know that they have no hope of reaching the playoffs, so how can they possibly put forth the same effort after their big win?

The Chargers are the better team, and we’re getting some amazing line value. The advance spread was +3.5, and now it’s only +2, which seems like quite the overreaction to one game. The EPA numbers say that this spread should be Chargers -3.5, so there shouldn’t have been any movement.

One thing that may keep bettors away from the Chargers is that they’re playing an early game on the East Coast. This should not be a worry of any sort. In fact, it’s a positive for the Chargers because Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 against the spread in this situation during his coaching career. The only such loss was against the Steelers this year when Herbert had to leave the game with an injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah nor Denzel Ward practiced Wednesday, as expected. Joel Bitonio also missed Wednesday’s practice. Bitonio being sidelined would be huge, as the Browns would have cluster offensive line injuries against the Chargers’ talented pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing yet because I wanted to bet the David Njoku over, but he was DNP on Thursday. We’ll have to check in on this later. Update: I’m betting the Njoku over receiving yards, as the Chargers tend to allow lots of yardage over the middle of the field. Njoku is now Cleveland’s No. 1 receiver, so 51.5 seems more than reasonable. The best number is over 51.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has been ruled out. Denzel Ward is questionable, but he was only limited on Friday. Given that this is his sixth concussion, I’d be shocked if he plays. David Njoku and Joel Bitonio will play, but I still love the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Denzel Ward will play, which is a bummer, but I still like the Chargers a lot. The sharps have been on the Browns, but I’m not concerned about that. The best line is -2 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Browns are coming off their “Super Bowl” win.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Browns are a public home dog.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 60% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I didn’t have hate mail for my picks, so I grabbed some from the NFL Power Rankings page.

I love being called fans of random teams. I swear, I’ve been called a fan of every NFL team over the years, and people have told me that I hate every team over the years as well. I sometimes respond, “I hate every team!”

You heard it here first: If a guy leads the league in “Tuddies” – whatever the hell that means – his team must be better. What great analysis!

We have something from the first guy again:

I suppose it’s not fair to call this “hate mail” because this guy said that I’m comical and “always good for a laugh.” That’s a high compliment, so thank you, Biskit52250!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This spread seems to indicate that Derek Carr will return to action, but we don’t know that for sure. Even if he plays, will he be 100 percent? According to Deepak Chona, MD, who has 123,000 followers on Twitter, Carr is “lean playing,” but there are often “deep ball mechanics impacted upon return from oblique injuries.”

Then again, Carr may not need to throw the ball deep even though the Panthers are incredibly weak to outside receivers. Chris Olave could still have a decent game, but this Carolina defense is historically bad and won’t be able to defend other facets of New Orleans’ offense.

Primarily, the Saints should be able to pound the ball against the Panthers. The offensive line has gotten some reinforcements back from injury, so Alvin Kamara projects well. Perhaps Taysom Hill will score a touchdown.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: We also don’t know which quarterback Carolina will start. Andy Dalton got into a car accident and suffered a thumb injury, so he may not be 100 percent if he plays. So, it’s either a possibly banged-up Dalton or Bryce Young. I’m not sure which one is worse.

Young began last week’s game 5-of-5, which was shocking because he was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. Then, reality set in, and Young didn’t score another point until the very end of the game in garbage time. This is an easier opponent for Young, but it’s still difficult to trust him, especially without Diontae Johnson’s services. Young was horrendous against the Saints during the opening game of the season.

If the Panthers are to move the ball, it’ll be with Chuba Hubbard. The underrated back has put together some quality performances this year, and the Saints have been gashed on the ground in recent games. However, Pete Werner’s return to action last week changes this matchup, so it’s not a slam dunk for Hubbard as it was for Sean Tucker and Javonte Williams in Weeks 6 and 7.

RECAP: This is an impossible game to handicap right now because we don’t know who’s quarterbacking either team. We don’t know if Carr will play, and even if he does, he may not be 100 percent. I never want to back an injured quarterback.

Then again, it’s unclear if Dalton will return from his thumb injury either. Young could get the nod once again, and I have no desire to bet him. If we were getting a healthy Dalton for certain, I might consider Carolina as a possible team to bet against this opponent, but it’s also unclear if he’ll be fully healthy if he takes the field.

I’m currently going to pencil in the Saints, but I may change that as we get some more news. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line moving to -7.5 likely has to do with Derek Carr practicing on a limited basis. Andy Dalton practiced fully on Wednesday, but we still don’t know if Dave Canales will go back to Dalton or will give Bryce Young the nod again. Some injuries to keep tabs on are Marson Lattimore (hamstring) and Tyrann Mathieu (illness), with both players missing Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: I love the Chris Olave over receiving yards. Carolina is utterly atrocious against No. 1 receivers. With Derek Carr returning, that’s only going to help Olave, who had a big game last week without him. The best number is over 67.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Derek Carr and Bryce Young will start for their respective teams. If I knew Carr would be 100 percent, I’d bet on the Saints, but I don’t want to back an injured quarterback. Speaking of injured players, the Saints will be without two cornerbacks, including Marshon Lattimore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not getting to this game, and neither are the sharps. If you want to fade the Panthers once again, the best line is -7 -115 in a few places, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

It took a while, but the money finally came in on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 70% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

Derek Carr is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Derek Carr is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion last week, but it didn’t translate to a victory despite Miami being favored by five points. Tagovailoa played relatively well, but the defense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

Those expecting Tagovailoa to be better in his second game back could be disappointed. This is an incredibly difficult matchup for Tagovailoa, who had a deer-in-the-headlights look against the Bills back in Week 2 before he even suffered his concussion. Buffalo swarmed him, and he had no chance because his offensive line lost two starters from a year ago. The Bills did a good job of locking down his primary receivers as well.

The only thing that worked for the Dolphins in that game was utilizing De’Von Achane as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bills just clamped down on Kenneth Walker last week, so I wouldn’t expect much from Achane on the ground, especially with the diminished blocking. However, Achane could pick up some nice gains through the air.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen and Amari Cooper haven’t quite developed chemistry yet, but Cooper’s presence has opened everything for the rest of the offense. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are seeing much lighter coverage with the opposition focused on Cooper. That should continue in this game.

James Cook also stands to benefit. The Dolphins are weak to the run, so with the Dolphins worrying about Cooper’s ability to make plays downfield, they won’t be able to focus on Cook as much. Cook rushed for 78 yards on just 11 carries in the prior meeting.

It must be noted that the Dolphins won’t be able to disrupt any of this with their poor pass rush. Already down Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, they lost Zach Sieler last week. If Sieler is out again, Miami won’t have a prayer of rattling Allen.

RECAP: NFL divisional matchups can sometimes be lopsided. This is one such example. The Bills have owned the Dolphins in the Tagovailoa era. They’ve won 18 of the previous 23 meetings. That includes the Week 2 affair in which Tagovailoa suffered a concussion. Even before he exited the game, he looked completely frazzled. I bet the Dolphins, and I never felt so defeated as a bettor. OK, maybe that’s an exaggeration, but it was quite apparent that Miami had no chance, even early in the game.

There’s no way I can back this awfully coached Miami team in this sort of a matchup, so it’s Buffalo or nothing for me. Considering that the Bills already beat the Dolphins, and that they’re coming off a blowout victory across the country, I’m not dying to lay the six, even though it could be argued that the line is a bit short. My calculated spread is Buffalo -7.5, though I can’t ignore that the EPA numbers say that -4 is correct.

I’m going to bet a small amount on the Bills, but there are many other appealing games on the slate.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love that the Bills are trolling the Dolphins. Just take a look at the injury report. Buffalo has pretty much listed everyone on the injury report as practicing fully. After discussing this with Evan on the After Dark Show, I’ve decided to increase my unit count on the Bills.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane’s receiving yardage prop looks great. In three games with Tua Tagovailoa, Achane has gotten 76, 69, and 50 receiving yards, and yet, Achane’s prop is set at just 33.5. The Bills allow a ton of receiving yards to the opposition. The best number is over 33.5 receiving yards -114. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins will be without two starters in their secondary (Jevon Holland, Kader Kohou), which can’t help. Meanwhile, the Bills will have Terrel Bernard back from injury.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Bills -5.5 -120 at FanDuel. This line has pushed to -6.5 in many places, and there are some books that offer -6 -120. FanDuel is giving us a juicy -5.5 -120 line. I like this because the key number of six is so important. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We got duped last night. It seems as though the line movement from last night was a phantom move to get the sharps a better number on the Dolphins. Then again, that could have been a reaction to Amari Cooper being sidelined, but I still feel good about the Bills. You can still get -5.5 -120 at FanDuel, but I’d rather go with -6 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

A revenge spot for the Dolphins, but they’ve been owned by the Bills. Buffalo is coming off a blowout victory.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 18 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There was sharp money on the Cowboys early last week because many expected Micah Parsons to return to action. When Parsons was declared out, pro money went in on San Francisco. Of course, it helped that George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were both expected to play, but Parsons’ absence played a large factor in this reversal.

It would be shocking if Parsons didn’t return this week. Kirk Cousins is someone who doesn’t handle pressure very well – in comparison to other quarterbacks – and we saw this in Week 1 when T.J. Watt obliterated Cousins in a Pittsburgh victory. Parsons, assuming he’s healthy, is someone who can dominate a game in the same manner as Watt.

Parsons will be needed because the Cowboys have had cluster injuries at cornerback. What Parsons won’t be able to help with, however, is the leaky run defense. Isaac Guerendo just trampled the Cowboys, so Bijan Robinson projects incredibly well in this matchup.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Of course, Parsons can only do so much, and he has no impact on the offense unless he helps the team establish a lead. The Cowboys will need to address their offensive line this spring because they can’t block well. Left tackle Tyler Guyton can be described as a human turnstile, though he’s coming off his best game as a pro.

Luckily for Dak Prescott, he won’t have to worry very much about a pass rush in this game. The Falcons have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, as Matthew Judon has been a huge disappointment in Atlanta. Perhaps he’ll bounce back in the second half of the season, but if he doesn’t improve this week, Prescott will have all the time in the world to locate his weapons, including CeeDee Lamb, who has a dream matchup against an Atlanta secondary that can’t cover slot receivers.

The Cowboys don’t project very well on the ground, but that’s nothing new. The Falcons are better versus the rush than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Rico Dowdle if he plays this week.

RECAP: This game is extremely unappealing because I’d like to fade both teams. Parsons is coming back for the Cowboys, but it’s not like their defense was very good when he was playing. This team still has some major problems, yet is considered a playoff contender by many. Net adjusted EPA suggests that Dallas is one of the five worst teams in the NFL, and while I don’t think the Cowboys are that bad, I do think that Dallas should be faded because the public is overrating them

So, why not the Falcons? I also think Atlanta is overrated. The offense can be electric, but the defense is horrible. Plus, the Falcons are coming off a very important victory against the Buccaneers in which they established complete control of the division. The Falcons know that they don’t need this game because they’ll still be effectively up two games on the Buccaneers because Tampa Bay has to deal with Kansas City this week.

Due to the lack of motivation on Atlanta’s part, I’m going to be on the Cowboys, but I really don’t like the prospect of betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but Micah Parsons is not off to a great start. He was DNP in Wednesday’s practice, but he has plenty of time to return to practice.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re betting the CeeDee Lamb over receiving yards. The Falcons are weak to slot receivers, and Dallas figures to be playing from behind, so if that’s true, Dak Prescott will have to target Lamb frequently in the second half. The best number is over 82.5 receiving yards -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Micah Parsons is out. The Cowboys will likely be without their top two cornerbacks as well. Meanwhile, the Falcons might get back Drew Dalman and Troy Andersen. I had the Cowboys down as a possible selection earlier in the week, but I’m going to be on Atlanta for two units. After thinking about it, I don’t think the Falcons will be too deflated after beating the Buccaneers, given that the Cowboys are viewed favorably by the media.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I had two units written down here, but with Trevon Diggs being a surprise return after being DNP all week, I don’t want to bet Atlanta. The sharps took the Falcons at -2.5, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -115 at BetRivers and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

The Falcons just had a huge win over the Buccaneers.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The Cowboys are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 63% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix has performed well in the past couple of weeks, but some may think that Nix going up against Baltimore’s defense may seem like too daunting of a task for him. Anyone with this mindset has a serious ‘member berry problem because Baltimore no longer has a dominant stop unit. This is a positive matchup for Nix.

The Ravens have maintained one of the 10 worst defenses in the NFL this year. They’re absolutely horrendous against the pass. They had no answer for Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore last week. Courtland Sutton, who is coming off a 100-yard performance, figures to thrive in this very favorable matchup. Nix will have all the time he needs to find him, as his healthy offensive line will keep Baltimore’s mediocre pass rush at bay.

Though the Ravens can’t stop the pass, they’re not terrible everywhere on this side of the ball. They happen to defend the run extremely well, so Javonte Williams won’t do much. Baltimore, however, doesn’t defend the middle of the field well, so the Broncos can exploit this with their receiving backs, as well as Lucas Krull.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens don’t just have flaws on the defensive side of the ball. They also have their issues on offense, though you wouldn’t know it because of their many great outputs this season.

The big issue on this side of the ball is the pass protection. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum are great, but Baltimore’s three other offensive linemen can’t shield Lamar Jackson from pass rushers. The Ravens have been able to mask this liability with their stellar running game, but when they can’t run, they get into trouble. Establishing Derrick Henry won’t be so easy against a solid Denver ground defense that put the clamps on Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara this season.

The Broncos have the seventh-best pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll hound Jackson. Patrick Surtain II will be able to limit Zay Flowers when he covers him, which will force Jackson to look elsewhere.

RECAP: I love the Broncos this week. We’ve been on them for big bets quite a bit dating back to Week 3 when we wagered four units on them as they took on the Buccaneers. We also bet them heavily when they played the Jets, and then we pounded them last week against the Panthers. We’re going back to the well one more time.

There are so many reasons to love the Broncos. In regard to the matchup, the Ravens had cluster injuries at cornerback last week. There’s no guarantee they’ll have their players back for this game, but even if they do, Baltimore’s secondary has been a disaster all year. Sutton just had a huge game, and he could have another big performance in this easy matchup. Meanwhile, Denver’s rush defense should be able to limit Henry.

The motivational factor points in Denver’s direction as well. The Ravens have to play their next game in just four days, as they’ll be battling the Bengals on Thursday night. There’s a long history of big favorites struggling ahead of Thursday night affairs, and we’ve seen that happen on several occasions this year. The 49ers and Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and Giants, respectively, prior to battling each other. The Rams barely got by the Raiders a couple of weeks ago before going up against Minnesota. Last week, the Texans nearly lost the Colts. Cincinnati is a big rival for the Ravens, who will be looking ahead to that game.

The Broncos get the edge as far as the spread is concerned, too. Because the Ravens are overrated – their defense ranks 23rd in adjusted EPA – the line is heavily inflated in their favor. My calculated line is only Baltimore -5. Amazingly, the adjusted EPA numbers say this line should be Baltimore -2. The metrics do not like the Ravens.

Given that there are so many things favoring the Broncos, this will be my top play of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice with back and knee injuries. John Harbaugh called it a load management day, but if that were the case, why not just list him as “rest?” Why the two injuries?

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m posting this early because of the Lamar Jackson news. Jackson missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. He probably will play – I expect him to – but if he’s ruled out, this line will plummet, so I want to make sure we get the +8. The best line is +8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Courtland Sutton’s over receiving yards last week, and we’re going to do it again. Baltimore’s secondary is a mess. Cedric Tillman even went off against them. Sutton should have a great game. The best number is over 48.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It turns out that I didn’t need to lock in this pick early. In fact, I should have waited because the spread moved back to +9.5. Still, if Lamar Jackson had been ruled out, we would have completely lost this line. Nine is a dead number anyway, so I’m still OK with it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the move to +9 doesn’t bother me. The sharps are on Denver. I’m going to bet the moneyline, which is +379 at Bookmaker. The best line is also at Bookmaker, which is +9 -109. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Ravens have to play the Bengals in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -8.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 53% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Lamar Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Bengals lose in blowout fashion against the Eagles because of how they dominated the opening quarter. They played keep-away so well, as Joe Burrow converted numerous third-and-long situations and led two scoring drives.

Things ultimately fell apart for the Bengals for several reasons, one of which was Tee Higgins’ absence. It’s unclear if Higgins will be able to return this week, but the Bengals certainly need him because they don’t have much else going for them. With Higgins sidelined, Burrow had to rely on Mike Gesicki, which is not ideal. Burrow also saw plenty of pressure, which he’ll confront again this week with Maxx Crosby getting healthier. Crosby saw a season-high 72 snaps last week.

Burrow could avoid this pressure if he were able to lean on a strong ground attack, but the Bengals don’t have anything of that nature. Chase Brown can get some big gains because he runs like he’s shot out of a cannon, but the blocking often isn’t there for him. The Raiders are mediocre to the run, so this doesn’t seem like the sort of matchup Brown could exploit.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Burrow could lean on a good defense in past years, but that’s not the case anymore either. The best thing the Bengals do on this side of the ball is rush the passer on the edge, and yet they’re below average as far as pressure rate is concerned.

The Raiders’ biggest offensive problem is pass protection, so Gardner Minshew won’t be hounded as often as he usually is. He received some help last week with Jakobi Meyers returning to action. This is big for this game because Cincinnati is dreadful at cornerback. Meyers and Brock Bowers both figure to thrive in this matchup.

Minshew might be able to lean on the rushing attack a bit as well. As with Cincinnati, Las Vegas doesn’t run block very well, but the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping ground attacks.

RECAP: This game mirrors the one I wrote up above this one. The Bengals, like the Ravens, are big favorites over an AFC West opponent with an impending Thursday night battle.

I trust the Broncos to cover the spread more than the Raiders, so I won’t be betting as much on this game. However, I still really like Las Vegas. The Bengals are a bad team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone except for maybe the Panthers. Yes, they have Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, but what else? They can’t block. They can’t run the ball. They’re 11th worst in pressure rate. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. And their head coach does stupid stuff with the game on the line. The Bengals nearly lost to the Giants, and they were blown out by the Eagles last week. There’s no way they should be -7.5 over the Raiders, and that’s not even factoring in any look-ahead spots.

Again, I can’t quite bet five units on the Raiders, but they are getting healthier. Meyers returned last week, and perhaps Dylan Parham will play this Sunday. Even if that’s not the case, both my projected lines say this spread should be -5.5 and -4.5. The value is certainly there, but we just need to hope that Minshew doesn’t self-destruct, which he shouldn’t do against a bad defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins didn’t practice Wednesday. I predict that he won’t play because of the impending Thursday night game. Some sharp money moved this line toward the Raiders.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re betting Zack Moss’ receiving yardage prop. Moss has eclipsed 20 receiving yards in five of the past six weeks. He’s also going to get more of a workload in this game because the Bengals will want to preserve Chase Brown with another game in four days. The best number is over 18.5 receiving yards -115 on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m bumping this up to five units. The Bengals won’t have their best offensive lineman, Orlando Brown, which sounds terrible against Maxx Crosby. Tee Higgins won’t play either. The Bengals are clearly preserving these guys for the Thursday night game, so they won’t be focused at all for the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have Dylan Parham and Robert Spillane. The Bengals won’t have Tee Higgins. This is all great news. I love the Raiders, though the sharps are on the other side. The best line is +8 -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings. I’m also betting the moneyline, and the best number is +320, also at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Bengals play the Ravens in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -8.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Lots of action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Joe Burrow is 17-7 ATS after a loss.

Joe Burrow is 3-6 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 70 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: With the election coming up, it’s important to note how one of the candidates is handling interviews:

The former slave master has done such a great job with the border, so I don’t understand how she can’t come up with a concise answer.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It was shocking to see Jayden Daniels play last week, let alone heave a Hail Mary pass to prevail. Daniels was expected to miss last week’s game with a rib injury, yet he took the field and led his team to victory against a top-12 defense.

The Giants aren’t nearly as great on this side of the ball. Their showing against the Steelers was downright horrendous. They couldn’t stop the run at all, so Brian Robinson Jr. will pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. Daniels will also accelerate for some long gains on scrambles, as he was able to do last week.

This great running will set up easy throwing situations for Daniels. The Giants are better against the pass than the run, so Daniels can certainly use the help. It’s worth noting that the Giants are poor to receiving backs, so Robinson and Austin Ekeler figure to be big threats as pass-catchers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants were able to move the chains consistently against the Redskins in their Week 2 matchup. The difference was the injured kicker, as New York had to go for it on fourth down, even in goal-to-go situations.

I do not expect the Giants to be as productive this time for a couple of reasons. First, Andrew Thomas is sidelined, which makes a huge difference. The Redskins produce pressure at the 12th-highest clip in the NFL, so Jones won’t have nearly as much protection as he enjoyed in the first meeting. Second, the Redskins have improved defensively since then. Washington had a porous defense to begin the year, but the unit has improved markedly under Dan Quinn.

The Redskins are weaker to the run than the pass, but the Giants may not have their top back for this matchup. Tyrone Tracy has shown himself to be an electric runner, but he suffered a concussion on Monday night. He may not be able to return on a short work week.

RECAP: How will the Redskins respond from their Hail Mary victory? I wish I had a strong answer for you, but it’s truly unknown. It’s not like we can look at history because there’s such a small sample size. Since 2002, five teams have won on Hail Marys: The 2020 Cardinals, 2015 Packers, 2012 Seahawks, 2010 Jaguars, and 2002 Browns. The five teams are 2-3 against the spread after these games, with only Green Bay and Jacksonville covering. It’s worth noting that the Packers had a mini-bye afterward because their victory occurred on a Thursday night.

I’m willing to bet the Redskins despite this potential pitfall. The Giants are one of the five worst teams in the NFL. With Thomas sidelined, the Giants can’t block, and this affects Jones’ ability to get the ball to Malik Nabers. Meanwhile, the defense has been far worse in recent weeks. My projected line for this game is Washington -5.5, so even though we’re seeing the dreaded -3.5 posted, the Redskins seem like the right play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anyone who thought the -3.5 line was shady can breathe a sigh of relief because the books moved the spread to -4. Also, Tyrone Tracy missed Wednesday’s practice. It’ll be a surprise if he plays.

PLAYER PROPS: I want the Brian Robinson rushing yards over, but that prop is currently unavailable. I’ll check back on this one later.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants won’t have their kicker once again. Luckily, we won’t have to worry about that this time because we’re on the Redskins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson is out, but that doesn’t change my evaluation of this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is -4 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

The Redskins won on a Hail Mary. How will they respond?

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Washington: 87% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 36 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.