2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Patriots at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Here’s another Mark Dice Man on the Street interview video, where this week’s collection of idiots didn’t know how many stars are on the American flag:

I lost it when the one guy took forever to count the stars and yet came up with 55.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had a rough first two games, but improved after that. He had upgraded his play in each of the next four weeks, but has regressed in each of the past two games. The difference has been the pressure, as Williams was constantly under siege against the Redskins and Cardinals.

Things will reverse for Williams. The Patriots have the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Williams will have much more time than he had the past two games. He’ll be able to use that time to locate all of his talented weapons, as D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and company won’t have an issue getting open against the Patriots.

The Bears also figure to run the ball well. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so D’Andre Swift will pick up chunks of yardage.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots also figure to move the chains well on the ground, provided they don’t fall too far behind. The Bears were trampled by James Conner last week, so Rhamondre Stevenson has to be far more excited for this matchup than the one last week versus Tennessee in which he couldn’t even rush for two yards per carry.

Stevenson’s running will open up opportunities for Drake Maye, but what if the Patriots once again trail by double digits against a quality opponent? Drake Maye will be harassed by the Bears front, assuming Montez Sweat returns to action after missing last week’s game. Sweat and the other pass rushers should have their way with New England’s poor offensive line.

Maye also won’t be able to consistently hit his threats, given that most of them are lackluster. Hunter Henry has the best chance of succeeding because the Bears have given up significant performances to opposing tight ends recently.

RECAP: One angle I love is betting good teams coming off embarrassing defeats. This is what happened to the Bears last week. Perhaps deflated from the Hail Mary loss, Chicago was a no-show at Arizona. The Cardinals humiliated them by ramming the ball down their throat all afternoon.

Now, there’s the question as to whether or not the Bears qualify as a good team. They at least have a good defense that was short-handed with some injuries last week. They also obviously have some great skill players, and Williams has enjoyed some terrific performances against some poor defenses. The Bears certainly are not a great team, but I think they can be classified as a good team.

If I’m correct, then this is a great bounce-back spot for them, especially with the Patriots coming off an overtime affair. New England is a miserable team that has gotten blown out four times this year. They’ve kept their previous two games close, but those were against an unfocused Jets team that was looking ahead to a Thursday night affair, and the Titans. Before that, they couldn’t keep up with the terrible Jaguars, whom the Bears destroyed the week prior to that meeting.

We’re also getting a slight discount with the Bears, who were -7 on the advance line. With that factored in, this is going to be a top play for me this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chicago didn’t have Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones for Wednesday’s practice, but this doesn’t seem like the end of the world against New England’s poor pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: I can’t believe we’re betting D’Andre Swift, but he’s gone over the posted rushing yards prop (70.5) in four of his previous five games. Swift has been great, while New England continues to be woeful against the run. The best number is over 70.5 rushing yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will have some reinforcements back this week. Offensively, Ryan Bates figures to return for the first time since Week 1. Perhaps he’ll help the lackluster blocking. Defensively, Montez Sweat will play after missing last week’s game. The Bears should be able to take care of business against this horrible New England team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like that the Bears are missing both tackles, though Ryan Bates’ return will help. I’m going to drop this a unit to four. The sharps have been a bit light on the Bears. The best line is -6 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

The Bears were just embarrassed.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.

Computer Model: Bears -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 64% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Patriots are 29-17 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 15 mph.