2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Lions at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The big news entering this game is that Nico Collins will be back from injury. Reports indicate that Collins is ready to go. It’s always unclear how skill players will perform coming off injury, but every story has been positive regarding Collins.

This is obviously great news for C.J. Stroud. He really struggled Thursday night. Of course, the matchup didn’t help, but he only had Tank Dell as a viable receiver, and Dell isn’t even fully healthy. Collins has been terrific when healthy this year, and his presence on the field will be enormous.

Plus, it’s an easy matchup. The Lions don’t project to be quite the same without Aidan Hutchinson, and they already had question marks in their secondary. It’ll be difficult for Detroit to stop Stroud with Collins and Dell at his disposal. Having Collins will be crucial because the Lions have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Joe Mixon doesn’t project well for once.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Texans don’t project to run the ball well, Detroit will be able to do so. The Texans have been weak to the run this year, allowing Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor to thrive in their previous two games. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery figure to pick up big chunks of yardage.

This will obviously make life easier for Jared Goff, who will be indoors once again. Goff played in tough elements last week, yet he was still 18-of-22. Goff has been incredibly efficient this year after a slow start in the first couple of weeks, and he should play well again.

The Texans are usually great at covering outside receivers, but they aren’t as good versus slot receivers. This presents an obvious problem in this matchup because Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the top slot receivers in the NFL.

RECAP: The spread movement here makes no sense. The Lions were -2.5 on the advance line. This line has popped up to -3.5 because of last week’s result. Obviously, the Texans lost to the Jets, and the Lions beat the Packers, but Houston was an underdog and Detroit was a favorite. A small line move, even to a key number, might make sense, except Houston is going to be in better shape this week with Collins returning from injury.

Collins being available is huge, especially for this matchup. The Lions have issues in the secondary, which will only be magnified by Hutchinson’s injury. Detroit’s defensive backfield hasn’t really been challenged since Hutchinson’s injury, except for the game against the Vikings, which was nearly a defeat. Since then, the Lions battled Mason Rudolph and an injured Jordan Love in a downpour. Stroud and Collins will provide a major challenge.

I like the Texans quite a bit. The public is all over Detroit, but I believe Houston to be the right side. I like Stroud’s matchup against a questionable secondary, and we’ll be getting him and his team at their best after a loss on national TV. Meanwhile, we recently saw the Lions struggle to win in Minnesota. They prevailed by two points, and I view Minnesota and Houston similarly. Sure, the Lions had a dominant win at Green Bay, but they were going against an injured quarterback, so the Packers never had a chance. Such a monumental win might mean that the Lions could be flat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought that Nico Collins would be ready to go, but he missed Wednesday’s practice. No Collins means no bet on the Texans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Taylor Decker and Will Anderson are out. As for Nico Collins, he’s an unknown. He returned to practice Friday for a limited session. I thought he would practice more than that this week. If Collins is out, I won’t be betting the Texans, so stay tuned.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Texans have allowed big rushing performances all year. David Montgomery had a couple of games where he rushed just nine times, but he was coming off a knee injury. Things were back to normal last week when he got 17 attempts. Montgomery is usually good to go over his rushing prop when he gets the appropriate workload, and I don’t see why that wouldn’t happen in this game. The best number is over 55.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The more I think about it, the more it seems as though this will be a non-bet. Nico Collins may play, but he’s coming off a hamstring, so he could aggravate the injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite all the positive reports about Nico Collins recently, he will not be playing. Thus, I will not be betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this either. The best line is +4 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Lions are coming off a big win in Green Bay. The Texans just lost on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Will Houston get any bets?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 68% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.