2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Titans at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Quentin Johnston looked awful in his rookie year. He was even outplayed by someone named Derius Davis when all of the starters were out late in the season. However, his return to the lineup has been huge for the Chargers. He made some big plays last week despite battling a tough Cleveland defense.

The Titans defense was classified as tough once upon a time, but that has changed. Tennessee’s top two cornerbacks have been sidelined, which didn’t exactly come into play against the Patriots’ horrible receiving corps, or the Lions because Detroit was scoring a million touchdowns on special teams. Justin Herbert will have an easy time navigating through Tennessee’s injury-ravaged secondary in this game, as he did well even against the Browns last week.

Running won’t be so easy for the Chargers. The Titans are stout against the run, as T’Vondre Sweat’s return to action has made a huge difference. That said, J.K. Dobbins didn’t have a great matchup last week. He didn’t do much early in the afternoon, but picked up steam as the afternoon progressed. Perhaps he’ll do the same against the exhausted Titans, who are coming off an overtime battle.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans won’t be able to run the ball either. Tony Pollard has been terrific this year, but this is a very difficult matchup. The Chargers are eighth versus the run, and only one running back this year (James Conner) has beaten expectations against them.

The Titans were able to limit their mistakes against the Patriots last week because they had so much success running the ball. That won’t be the case this week, so the quarterback who starts this game could be forced into multiple turnovers, no matter who it is. Mason Rudolph would be the better option because Will Levis is clueless, but Rudolph has also made some bone-headed decisions.

It won’t help that either Levis or Rudolph will see tons of pressure. The Titans run block well, but pass protection is not their specialty. A healthy Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack will place plenty of pressure on Tennessee’s quarterback.

RECAP: In the prior pick capsule, I faded a bad team coming off an overtime affair. In this pick capsule, I’ll be fading a bad team coming off an overtime affair.

The Titans beat the Patriots last week, which makes them an automatic fade. Going against awful teams coming off wins is a great strategy because they often have problems sustaining success. I’d be shocked if we got Tennessee’s best performance this week.

It’ll be difficult for the Titans to compete with the Chargers, even at their best. The problem here is that they have a backup quarterback going up against the NFL’s No. 3 defense. Reserve quarterbacks tend to cover the spread against mediocre or bad defenses, but they have a huge failure rate against elite defenses. The Chargers just wrecked Jameis Winston and Spencer Rattler the past two weeks. In fact, the Chargers have put the foot on the throat of bad quarterbacks all year, debacling Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young in the first two weeks of the season. Their victories against Minshew, Young, Rattler, and Winston have been by 12, 23, 18, and 17 points.

The Chargers are my top play this week. I love the idea of fading awful teams, especially off victories. You might be worried about the Chargers’ lack of success in San Angeles, but that was before Jim Harbaugh arrived. The Chargers naturally underachieved with the horrible Brandon Staley, but they’ve performed beyond expectations all but one week with Harbaugh.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two injuries of note: First, L’Jarius Sneed once again missed Wednesday’s practice, so it looks like the Titans will be without both starting cornerbacks again. Second, Khalil Mack was DNP on Wednesday with a groin.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re paying a hefty price for this, but Will Levis is -165 to throw an interception (at ESPNBet). Levis is a disaster who has thrown a pick in every game this year. He now faces the Chargers, who intercepted Jameis Winston thrice last week. It’d be shocking if Levis didn’t throw a pick, especially given that he’s coming back from injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread dropped to -7 Friday morning. Hilariously, the second Will Levis was confirmed as the starter, the spread went back to -7.5. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are both questionable. Bosa was limited all week in practice, while Mack didn’t practice at all. Bosa played last week despite having the same designation last week. If both are out, I will not be betting the Chargers because that would give us cluster injuries at an important position. I just need one of them to play.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This spread has moved to -8, as there’s no sign of any sharp money coming in on the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know if we’re going to see our quarterback throw the ball to the other team nonstop, or our special teams muff a punt to set up an easy touchdown for the opponent, because that’s the theme today. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are both active, so go Chargers go. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is -8 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Titans are a bad team coming off an overtime win.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.

Computer Model: Chargers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 87% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Chargers are 22-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Dome.