2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Bills at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 22-19 ATS through eight weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins -4

Texans +2

Eagles -7.5

Bengals -7.5

Bills -6

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This was truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides were now 20-14 on the year, as sportsbooks had taken a huge beating.

Well, the turntables turned in Week 8 because the public was 2-5, only winning with the Lions and Steelers. Many teasers surely failed as well with Baltimore losing outright. The public then went 2-3 in Week 9. The public is now 24-22.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -4

Bills -4

Lions -3

Chargers -8

Falcons -3.5

Four of the five are road favorites. Will the Joes win these “easy” picks?

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen is not nearly the same quarterback who entered the NFL, or even quarterbacked the Bills in following seasons. He’s been safer with the ball than the reckless phenom who came into the league in 2018. He amazingly has just two interceptions on the year, as he’s done a great job of moving the chains methodically despite not possessing a legitimate No. 1 receiver until the Amari Cooper trade.

Cooper was out last week, but he may be able to return this Sunday. Cooper opens things up for all of the other receivers, which is bad news for the Colts, who possess a shaky secondary. Indianapolis is also weak to tight ends, so Dalton Kincaid could really benefit from Cooper’s return.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Bills won’t be the only team moving the chains on the ground efficiently in this game. Jonathan Taylor couldn’t find any running room against the Vikings, but this is a much better matchup for him. Buffalo has been gashed by opposing backs this year, so Taylor will rebound from his poor performance.

The Colts should consider utilizing Taylor as a receiver out of the backfield as well. The Bills surrender more receiving yardage to opposing backs than any team in the NFL. Taylor saw five targets against Minnesota, so the Colts should throw even more passes to him.

The Bills have also given up big outings to opposing tight ends and slot receivers. The Colts don’t have the personnel to capitalize on the former, but they certainly do with the latter. Josh Downs has made a big leap in his second year. He’s had some explosive games this season, and this could certainly be another one.

RECAP: This is a sandwich situation if I’ve ever seen one. The Bills are coming off a last-second victory against the divisional rival Dolphins. After this game, they have to battle the Chiefs for a chance to obtain the No. 1 seed down the line. Will Buffalo be focused at all in this game?

If the Bills are flat at all, the Colts could steal this game. Buffalo is weak to running backs and slot receivers, which is where the Colts are strongest. Indianapolis establishing Taylor – and hopefully using him in crucial situations for once – would allow the Colts to keep the Bills offense off the field. That could frustrate Allen and cause him to make some mistakes for the first time all season.

The Colts have kept games close all year, losing by eight or fewer points in every contest. This line is only four, so a six- or seven-point result would be a loss for us, but I’m still going to be on Indianapolis. I do have some concern about Flacco battling this caliber of defense, but it’s not like Buffalo has possessed an elite stop unit this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keon Coleman may miss this game, but the Bills could get Amari Cooper back. Nothing new to report otherwise.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not seeing anything I like here. I wanted to bet Josh Downs, but his prop numbers are inflated.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keon Coleman has been ruled out, and Amari Cooper may not play either. The Bills aren’t the only team missing a receiver, with Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined as well. Pittman hasn’t been very good lately because of a lingering back injury, so the Colts won’t be missing much with him sidelined this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Amari Cooper for the Bills, and yet the line went up to -4.5? OK? I still like the Colts despite this odd line movement. The sharps haven’t bet this game. The best line is +4.5 -110 at Caesars or FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

Sandwich situation for the Bills. They just beat the Dolphins at the last second, and they have the Chiefs after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.

Computer Model: Bills -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 82% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 14-38 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.