2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Eagles at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: We have to begin with this side of the ball because of the major losses the Cowboys suffered last week. Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring injury that will sideline him for several weeks. And if that wasn’t bad enough, CeeDee Lamb is “week to week” with a shoulder injury. Lamb shouldn’t be out for too long, but it might be difficult for him to suit up for this game.

It’s going to be tough for the Cowboys to score in this game. The only thing they had going for them was Prescott throwing to Lamb, and now both are out of commission. It’ll be Cooper Rush throwing to a bunch of scrubs like Jalen Tolbert, which won’t work against a Philadelphia secondary that has improved markedly since the beginning of the year. Rush will also be under heavy pressure from Philadelphia’s front.

With Prescott and Lamb out of the lineup, the Eagles can focus more on Rico Dowdle. This is bad news for Dowdle, as Philadelphia already had a stout ground defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Cowboys won’t be able to score much on the Eagles, so they’ll have to limit their offense and hope to win a defensive grinder. Micah Parsons returning to action will certainly help, as he’s sorely been missed.

Though Parsons is an incredible player, he’s not some panacea for the Cowboys because there are other issues beyond the pass rush. Dallas is brutal against the run, which would have been acceptable in this matchup in the past. The Eagles of previous years didn’t have Saquon Barkley, of course. Barkley will be able to pick up where he left off last week when he was making backward hurdles and deep touchdown catches. The Cowboys won’t stand a chance against him.

Dallas also struggles against mobile quarterbacks, so Jalen Hurts will be effective on his runs. Thanks to Barkley, Hurts will be in favorable down-and-distance situations all afternoon, so he’ll have an easier time targeting his receivers. Speaking of which, A.J. Brown got hurt last week, but unlike Lamb, he’s “day to day,” so there’s a good chance he’ll be able to play in this game.

RECAP: This is another game in which a backup quarterback will be battling a team with a top defense. The Eagles began slowly on this side of the ball to start the year, but they’ve improved markedly under Vic Fangio as the season progressed. They’re ranked fourth in defensive EPA, which presents a huge problem for Rush.

The Eagles would normally be a great play, but there’s a good chance they won’t be focused for the Cowboys. This would ordinarily be a blasphemous thing to say because the Eagles and Cowboys hate each other, but a Prescott-less 3-5 Dallas team doesn’t seem like a threat. What’s more significant is that the Eagles have a huge game against the Redskins in four days. I’ll be surprised if they don’t have at least one eye on that impending battle.

I don’t see this as a good betting opportunity. I’ll be on the Eagles as a pure fade of Dallas’ injury situation, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Philadelphia relaxes in the second half and allows a back-door touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After talking to Evan on the After Dark Show, I’m less worried about the Eagles looking ahead to Thursday night because Jacksonville in the second half could have been the true look-ahead spot. I’m going to put three units on the Eagles, though I’ll be taking them off if Philadelphia doesn’t have its receivers. A.J. Brown is “day to day,” while DeVonta Smith missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop of 89.5 may seem high until you consider that he has exceeded that number in all but two games this year. The first one was the Tampa Bay loss when everyone was out. The second was the matchup against Cleveland’s excellent defense. The Cowboys can’t stop the run at all. The best number is over 89.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lots of injury news. The Eagles are completely healthy except for Jordan Mailata, who is on injured reserve. Dallas Goedert will return, as will Darius Slay. There was some question about the status of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but both will play. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will have CeeDee Lamb, but Dak Prescott is out. Micah Parsons may return – he’s questionable after being limited all week – but Dallas is looking like it’ll have cluster injuries at cornerback with DaRon Bland out and Trevon Diggs very questionable. This is not good news for them, given the matchup against the receivers. I was worried about the Eagles potentially looking ahead to Washington, but given that they’re rushing everyone back, it still seems as though they view the Cowboys as a threat, so I’m definitely going to be betting them.

LOCKED IN: Most sportsbooks have taken the Eagles to -7.5. I said on the show that I’d be looking to lock in a viable -7, and we found one at Bookmaker. I’m locking in Eagles -7 -108 at Bookmaker for three units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Bookmaker still has a -7 -113 available, which is much better than -7.5 -110, and a bit better than -7.5 -105.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action here. There are some -7 -115s out there, but you can get -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

The Eagles have to play against the Redskins four days after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -12.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 85% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Home Team has won the last 10 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Jalen Hurts is 8-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.