2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: 49ers at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers may get some good news in the coming days. Christian McCaffrey has been cleared to practice, opening up his 21-day window to return to action. It remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play this week, but there’s a chance he’ll be able to do so.

If that’s the case, McCaffrey will help immensely right away. The 49ers have gotten great production out of Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, but the difference has been the red zone offense. The 49ers were first in red zone offense last year, but have fallen into the bottom five in that regard this season. McCaffrey is the difference, so he should immediately improve that aspect of the team.

Of course, the 49ers have other weapons that they’ll be able to successfully utilize in this matchup. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both figure to have great games. The Buccaneers have an injury-ravaged secondary incapable of covering anyone, and they also leave the middle of the field wide open, which obviously benefits Kittle. Jauan Jennings also figures to return to action, and he should be able to do some damage as well.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers put forth a gutsy performance against the Chiefs. Despite missing his top two receivers, Baker Mayfield took the Chiefs to overtime. Had his team won the coin toss, he may have pulled the upset.

Anyone expecting a similar result in this game will likely be disappointed. Mayfield couldn’t keep up with the Falcons two weeks ago, but was fortunate to get Kansas City in a flat spot with the Broncos on the horizon. The 49ers won’t be distracted. They battle the Seahawks next week, but they already blew out Seattle, so they have bigger fish to fry. They’ll surely be impressed by what they saw against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Mayfield will be staring down a fierce pass rush and a talented secondary that will be able to limit his meager receiving corps. The 49ers also excel against the run, so they’ll be able to contain Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Mayfield will have success throwing to Cade Otton, but that’s about it. He’ll be stuck in long-yardage situations all afternoon, so he’ll be forced into more turnovers. Mayfield is second in the NFL in interceptions, so he’ll add to that total in this game.

RECAP: The Buccaneers put everything they had into their battle against the Chiefs. They come up short in overtime, so they’ll be exhausted in this game. It’s going to be difficult for them to match the same intensity they had against Kansas City, even as underdogs.

The 49ers seem like the right side, even if they don’t get McCaffrey back from injury. If they do, that’s a bonus, but this is a great spot for San Francisco, given how short-handed and tired Tampa Bay will be.

By the way, if you’re concerned about this being an early 1 p.m. start time for the 49ers, don’t be. Kyle Shanahan has been terrific in this situation throughout the years. Shanahan is 9-5 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast contests.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Something else that popped out was Baker Mayfield’s DNP for a toe injury, but FOX Sports’ Greg Auman said that Wednesday was just a walkthrough on a short week. Still, it’s something to monitor. If I see that Mayfield isn’t practicing today, I’m going to lock in this pick before it moves up any further.

LOCKED IN: As promised, I’m locking in the 49ers because Baker Mayfield missed Thursday’s practice. There’s still a good chance Mayfield will play, and if he does, we may lose half a point. If he’s out, however, this line will shoot up to -10.5 at the very least, so I wanted to make sure we get -6. The best line is -6 -110 at several sportsbooks, including Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers leave the middle of the field wide open, so George Kittle should have a big game. He’s gone over the posted prop yardage (56.5) in his previous four games, and why wouldn’t that continue with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined? The best number is over 56.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t like seeing that Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel are questionable after being limited in practice all week – especially given that we already bet the game. That said, this line moved from -6 to -6.5, so that is a good sign at least.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel will play, while the Buccaneers won’t have their top two cornerbacks. The sharps are on the 49ers. The best line is -6.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Buccaneers put everything they had into the Chiefs game, but lost in overtime.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Team is 139-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-74 ATS at home in the previous 116 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-33 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.