2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Broncos at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Though the Chiefs nearly lost to the Buccaneers, the fans have to be very encouraged by what they saw Monday night because Kansas City finally established a viable threat at receiver, which the team has lacked ever since Rashee Rice got knocked out for the year. DeAndre Hopkins was excellent in his second game with the Chiefs, scoring two touchdowns and snatching a 35-yard reception out of the air and away from a defender.

Hopkins had a great matchup last week, but he’ll be locked up against Patrick Surtain II this time. Still, Patrick Mahomes’ other options will be available, specifically Travis Kelce. The Broncos have struggled to cover tight ends this year, so Kelce projects very well.

The Chiefs might have some success on the ground as well. The Broncos aren’t terrible against the run, but they’re not great in that regard either. They rank 14th, and Kareem Hunt has been far better than expected since taking over for the injured Isiah Pacheco.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos will not be able to run the ball. They’d love to establish Javonte Williams, but that will be very difficult against the Chiefs, who have the No. 1 defense against ground attacks.

Bo Nix will have to do it all himself, which was the case last week against Baltimore’s sixth-ranked rush defense. Nix put together some nice drives, but wasn’t consistent enough in that regard. It also didn’t help that Denver shot itself in the foot repeatedly in Ravens territory.

The Broncos will have to play mistake-free football to be competitive with the Chiefs, which doesn’t seem possible with a rookie quarterback. Kansas City has a knack for locking down No. 1 receivers, so with Courtland Sutton restricted, where will Nix go? The other options are very pedestrian, so it’ll be very difficult for Denver to consistently move the chains.

RECAP: I was really hoping that the Broncos would either beat the Ravens, or keep last week’s game close. If that happened, the line may have dropped a bit from the advance spread of -9. Perhaps a line of -7 would have been too much to ask, but crazier things have happened.

I really wanted to get the Chiefs at -7 because they’d be able to expose the Broncos as frauds. Unfortunately, the Ravens did that. Because of that result, this spread swelled to -9.5 before falling back to -8 in the wake of the Monday night result.

I still would be on the Chiefs. They typically don’t cover high lines like this during the regular season, but first matchups against divisional opponents are different. They’ll be focused for the Broncos because a loss here would allow Denver to creep closer to them in the standings. We’d normally be able to take the Broncos against an unfocused Chiefs team in a rematch later in the year, but there’s a good chance Kansas City will be sitting its starters in Week 18.

At any rate, Chiefs -8 is still the play, but I don’t plan on betting in this game, aside from a teaser down to -2.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s rare to see an injury report as clean as this during the middle of the season. The only players of significance to miss Wednesday’s practice was JuJu Smith-Schuster, and is he really significant?

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t like anything here. The Chiefs are woeful against tight ends, but the Broncos rotate two players at the position. Lucas Krull is the better of the two, but he has seen his snaps decline in each of the past three weeks.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs. The best play is teasing them down to -1.5.

TEASERS ADDED: I’m teasing the Chiefs with the Chargers and Eagles in two separate bets. I like the potential of being able to middle with both the Titans and Cowboys if Kansas City hits, though I won’t plan on doing so because I’m betting the Chargers and Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Broncos, which isn’t a surprise, given how bad the Chiefs are at covering these high spreads. You can now get a viable -7 line at BetMGM (-7 -115), which made me consider betting Kansas City for a unit, but I’ll pass.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -9.

Computer Model: Chiefs -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 62% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 16 of the last 17 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 92-24 SU, 63-51 ATS (49-38 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 58 degrees. Light wind.