2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Vikings at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Our friend Nephtali is back! He hasn’t been around since Week 1. I was worried he was hospitalized for eating glue, or something, but he rushed to criticize me for the incorrect five-unit picks.

It’s weird to hear Nephtali say “my guy,” hence the nudes he sent for those “pixk.”

Nepatali doesn’t understand sarcasm. I didn’t expect him to understand the “it came down to one play” reply. That just went completely over his head, like everything else.

One thing you have to know about Nephtali is that he loves pumping himself up to make himself look better. For instance, he told me that his sportsbook hand delivers a turkey to him each Thanksgiving, which is completely absurd. That is why I said the following:

Nephtali visited my site to know my picks, but illiterate brain couldn’t see that I said I was awaiting Jordan Love’s status. Sad.

Here, Nephtali demonstrates that in addition to being unable to read, he can’t do math:

Can you imagine not being able to read or do math, and yet still getting a turkey delivered to your house every Thanksgiving? This is one “special” guy!

Also, I don’t know why Nephtali is bragging about “smashing” blow job tournaments, but here we are.

“My guy” … “blow job tournaments” … This Nephtali guy sure is progressive.

Now, Nephtali is talking about clientele? My apologies if any gay person read this and was unexpectedly aroused in a public setting. Sorry, I should have warned ahead of time!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It didn’t take very long for Cam Robinson to be matched up against his former team. The Robinson trade saved Minnesota’s season, as he was an adequate, but not great replacement for Christian Darrisaw in his first game. Robinson’s play should improve as the season progresses as he develops chemistry with his new teammates.

I do wonder, however, if the Jaguars will have an edge in this game because of Robinson’s presence. The Jacksonville edge rushers battled Robinson every day in practice, so they may know some of his liabilities. Perhaps the Jaguars will be able to pressure Sam Darnold as a result, which will be huge because they need all the help they can get. Their secondary has been better with Tyson Campbell, but containing Justin Jefferson is impossible.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, so they can keep Aaron Jones in check on the ground. However, they’ve been gashed by running backs through the air. Saquon Barkley beat them for a touchdown reception last week, so perhaps Jones will do the same.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The first thing you need to do when handicapping a game against Minnesota’s defense is to evaluate how well a quarterback performs against the blitz. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, so this is crucial information. Last week, I liked the Colts more with Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richardson because Flacco’s completion percentage versus the blitz was much higher than Richardson’s (51 vs. 29). Still, Flacco’s number wasn’t high enough to warrant a huge bet on the Colts, which is where I made a huge mistake.

Flacco wasn’t great against the blitz, but Trevor Lawrence is. Keep in mind that Flacco’s 51 percent was far superior to Richardson’s 29. Lawrence’s completion percentage against the blitz is 64.4. Versus the blitz this year, Lawrence is 47-of-73 for 545 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. This is not a fluke. I want to ignore last season because Lawrence was playing hurt, but in 2022, Lawrence was 69.4 percent against the blitz with eight touchdowns and four picks. Going back a year, Lawrence went against Brian Flores’ Dolphins defense in 2021. In that game, he was 25-of-41 for 319 yards, one touchdown and no picks in a 23-20 victory despite being just a rookie. Lawrence has his struggles sometimes, but he is terrific against the blitz.

The Vikings tend to struggle against opposing No. 1 receivers and tight ends when opposing quarterbacks solve their blitz, which works for Lawrence because he can target Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram. Thomas wasn’t totally healthy last week, but he should be close to 100 percent by Sunday.

RECAP: If you consider the Vikings and Packers to be about equal – or even Green Bay being a bit superior – then the Jaguars should be considered the correct side. A couple of weeks ago, the Packers were four-point favorites in Jacksonville. They won, but didn’t cover, prevailing by just three points.

The Vikings are now favored by about the same number, so it makes sense to be on Jacksonville, especially considering the schematic advantage that Lawrence has against this defense, which I detailed above.

Also, consider that the Vikings are coming off a victory on national TV. This could be a potential flat spot against a game Jaguar team that has been very competitive the past three weeks. They have just one win to show for it, but they’ve covered every single game, and if they’re down, Lawrence has shown that he can engineer some drives to keep the game close.

While the public is pounding Minnesota, I’ll be on the Jaguars for several units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to Minnesota -4.5. I wonder if that’s because the Jaguars missed two linemen in practice (Brandon Scherff, Ezra Cleveland). Remember, the Jaguars gave Cam Robinson to the Vikings, so if Scherff and Cleveland are out, Jacksonville will be down three blockers.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Vikings -7 -105 at ESPNBet. Ian Rapoport reported that Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play with a shoulder injury. There’s a chance Lawrence will suit up, but we’ve seen him play hurt late last year, and it wasn’t pretty. This spread of -7 without Lawrence is absurd because the Jaguars, with a backup quarterback and potentially multiple missing offensive linemen, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. This line should be -10 at the very least. A backup quarterback versus Brian Flores seems like such an easy bet. This is a five-unit selection, and the best line is -7 -105 at ESPNBet.

PLAYER PROPS: Aaron Jones’ receiving yards prop makes no sense. It’s 17.5, and yet he’s crossed that number in every game since Week 2. Furthermore, Jacksonville is weak to pass-catching backs. The best line is over 17.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: We already bet this game at -7, but the spread has dropped to -6.5 for unknown reasons. Maybe there’s some belief Trevor Lawrence will play – he’s questionable after being limited all week – but recent reports indicate that he’s unlikely to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe this line is only -7 now that we know that Trevor Lawrence is out for sure. The sharps bet the Vikings earlier in the week at a lower number. The best line is -7 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Vikings are coming off a win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Will anyone bet the Jaguars?

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 87% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 64-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 20-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.