2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Falcons at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: We must begin with the Saints because of all the news. It started with Chris Olave suffering yet another concussion on Sunday. This one was more severe than the previous one, as he had to be removed from the field on a stretcher, so it’s very unlikely that he’ll play anytime soon. The next day, Dennis Allen was fired. This was a great move by the Saints, who should have dismissed him long ago.

Olave’s absence will be more impactful because he’s such a talented receiver. That, and Rashid Shaheed being out of the lineup will severely limit the passing offense. Luckily for the Saints, they’ll be matched up against the Falcons’ poor defense. Atlanta can’t stop the pass or generate pressure on the quarterback, so Derek Carr could have some success moving the chains.

The Saints still at least have Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. They’ll be able to move the ball on the ground. The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but they’re not that good versus the former. Kamara rushed for 77 yards on 19 carries and caught seven balls for 42 receiving yards the first time these teams met, and he could be in for similar production.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints have some major issues on this side of the ball as well. They were down their top three cornerbacks last week, so if that’s the case again this week – we already know Marshon Lattimore is gone – they’ll be in big trouble against Kirk Cousins’ aerial assault. The only way they’d be bailed out is if Drake London sits. London suffered a hip injury, but he’s considered “day to day,” so it’s likely that he’ll suit up for this game.

Even if London is out, the Saints will have issues stopping the Falcons because they won’t be able to contain Bijan Robinson. Their soft run defense just allowed a big game to Chuba Hubbard, so Robinson should be excited about this matchup.

Robinson’s rushing will make things even easier for Kirk Cousins, who won’t be facing much of a pass rush. The Saints are 11th worst in pressure rate.

RECAP: One of our favorite angles is to bet a team after they fired their head coach. Players will try harder than usual because they want to make sure that the finger is not pointed at them. The Saints, of course, dismissed Allen after they were embarrassed in a loss to the woeful Panthers. They’ll be trying their hardest in this game.

Conversely, I’m not sure if we’ll get the Falcons’ best effort. They just beat the Buccaneers to establish control in the division, and then the Cowboys. This is also a divisional rival, but the Falcons already beat the Saints.

It must also be noted that we’re getting great line value. Prior to Week 9, the Falcons were -1 on the advance spread. They’re now -3.5. A move of 2.5 points isn’t always extreme, but a move through the ultimate key number of three certainly is. Sometimes, there are injuries to warrant such a move, but in this case, Olave being the sole player to get hurt from a week ago isn’t enough to shift the line 2.5 points. A move of 0.5 or maybe even one makes sense, but 2.5 through the key number of three? No way.

I’ll be betting the Saints for a few units. I love the value and motivation we’ll be getting with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I never thought I’d lead off with Kool-Aid McKinstry, but he didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he’s out, that would mean the Saints are out their top three cornerbacks again, with Marshon Lattimore traded. Chris Olave was DNP on Wednesday as well, but it would be a total shock if he played.

PLAYER PROPS: I ended up betting Ray-Ray McCloud over 27.5 receiving yards because the Saints are woeful against slot receivers. The best number is over 27.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake London is the only injury question mark for the Falcons. He’s questionable after being limited all week. Conversely, the Saints will be down their top three receivers, top three cornerbacks, and three starting offensive linemen. I’m going to downgrade this to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London will play, while the Saints are dealing with so many injuries. With the Saints having all these injuries, this line is still only +3.5. This is because the sharps are on New Orleans. The best line is +3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons already beat the Saints, and they’re coming off some big wins.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.

Computer Model: Saints -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

All the money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 86% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.