2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Bengals at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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Week 9 Analysis: I can’t believe we went 0-for-3 in the five-unit picks last week. We did well otherwise, so just hitting one of those would have allowed us to break even on the week. Had we gone 2-of-3, we would have won more than $1,000. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chargers, 4 units (win): The Browns were flat off their “Super Bowl” win against the Ravens. The Chargers averaged 2.3 more yards per play than Cleveland despite Justin Herbert taking six sacks.

Broncos, 5 units (loss): I was counting on the Ravens being unfocused with a Thursday game on the horizon. At the very least, I thought Denver could be in line for a back-door cover. Instead, the Ravens went all out against the hapless Broncos for some reason, exposing them as the frauds we knew they were.

Raiders, 5 units (loss): We had a chance at a back-door cover here. The Raiders were driving, down 31-17, with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter. They crossed midfield, but then Desmond Ridder took two sacks and turned the ball over on downs. The Raiders quit and gave up a touchdown to a wide-open Mike Gesicki. I love how the Raiders screwed us last week with a back-door cover against a far-superior Chiefs team, but then couldn’t get a back-door cover against the Bengals, who struggled to beat Daniel Jones and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The s**t luck we’ve had this year has been ridiculous.

Redskins, 3 units (win): The Redskins nearly blew this game despite being up by two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter.

Colts, 5 units (loss): The Colts, as six-point dogs, were down just 14-10 with 5:30 remaining. They drove over midfield and had a third-and-2. Did they run Jonathan Taylor on that play, or the ensuing fourth-and-2? No. Of course not. Instead, they had Joe Flacco lob a helpless pass to some bum named Ashton Dulin to turn the ball over on downs, and then the Vikings scored the front-door touchdown with 2:05 remaining. So, we can’t get the back-door cover from a team that has been back dooring all year, but we can get front doored because an idiot coach doesn’t understand that he should use his best players in the most crucial moments. I truly love how this season has been going.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup a few weeks ago, so we know that Joe Burrow is capable of performing on a high level. Burrow threw five touchdowns against the Ravens in an overtime loss in Baltimore.

This was no fluke. The Ravens do not have a good defense. They’re excellent against the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from Chase Brown. However, they have major problems in their secondary. They won’t be able to cover Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, who is expected back for this game. Baltimore also leaves the middle of the field wide open, so Mike Gesicki could have another great performance.

There’s only one concern with the Bengals, and that would be Zac Taylor’s in-game management. We had the Bengals at +2.5 in the first meeting between these teams. The Bengals led by double digits on three separate occasions, yet they didn’t cover because Taylor did stupid things in overtime. It’s not out of the question that Taylor could find a way to screw up again.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As impressive as Cincinnati’s offense was in the first meeting, the Ravens were even better. The Bengals stacked the box to limit Derrick Henry, and it didn’t matter. Lamar Jackson shredded them mercilessly during three double-digit comebacks. He and Zay Flowers had a great connection throughout the second half.

The Bengals have a horrible secondary, so they still won’t have an answer for Flowers. They now have to worry about Diontae Johnson as well. Johnson didn’t play much last week, but he’ll see more action in his second game.

It’ll be interesting to see if Cincinnati once again stacks the box against Henry. It didn’t work last time, so the strategy could change. Henry was limited, but Baltimore still scored 41 points, so the Bengals may go back to the drawing board.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Ravens are certainly the better team. Both offenses can be electric, but the Ravens have the better defense. That may seem odd to say because I’ve been dogging Baltimore’s defense all year for being incapable of defending the pass, but the Bengals can’t defend anything. They can’t stop the run or the pass, and they also can’t generate consistent quarterback pressure. The Ravens also have the superior rushing attack.

I’m going to be on Baltimore, but I don’t see myself betting this game because this spread screams back-door cover. Laying six or more against Burrow is just asking for trouble, so I’d rather just avoid this game.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins is doubtful, so that makes me a bit more confident in the Ravens. I don’t think I can get there with any sort of wager though.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop is Chase Brown over receiving yards. Zack Moss was the receiving back until last week when he landed on injured reserve. Brown responded with five receptions for 37 receiving yards. This should continue against the Ravens, who have allowed a ton of receiving yards to Javonte Williams and Rachaad White recently. The best number is over 23.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m tossing in the Brown over receiving yards prop with Mark Andrews over 43.5 receiving yards, Zay Flowers over 61.5 receiving yards, and Tanner Hudson over 13.5 receiving yards. The Bengals are weak to tight ends and No. 1 receivers, so Flowers and Andrews look great. Baltimore is also woeful versus tight ends, and with Ereck All out, Tanner Hudson will take that role with Mike Gesicki playing in the slot. This $25 parlay pays $280.71 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Tee Higgins and Orland Brown are sidelined. I’m sticking with the Ravens, but won’t be betting them. The sharps haven’t touched this either. Most books have a -6 -115 line, so the -5.5 -120 at FanDuel looks favorable because we’re only paying five cents for the No. 3 key number of six.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 51% (290,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won the last 3 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 40-20 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 52 degrees. Light wind.