2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Jets at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 8: Miracle at the Las Vegas Airport.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets beat the Texans, so they solved everything, right? Maybe, but not because they finally broke their long losing streak. It may be because Aaron Rodgers has finally been able to develop some chemistry with his receivers.

Then again, there still appear to be some problems with this team. The pass protection remains a concern, which would be an issue in this matchup. The Cardinals haven’t sported a great pass rush all year, but they put tons of pressure on Caleb Williams last week. They also added Baron Browning to help in this regard, so Rodgers could have issues in the pocket.

Rodgers will naturally turn to Breece Hall as a safety valve. The Cardinals struggled against the run earlier in the season, but have improved in this regard. However, they’re still weak to receiving backs, as Hall certainly shines in this area.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The TV announcers commented during last week’s game that it appeared as though the Cardinals were running the same play over and over again. They just pounded the ball with James Conner and the other two backs, and Chicago couldn’t do anything to stop it.

The Cardinals would be wise to deploy the same strategy because the Jets are very poor against the run. They’ve struggled to stop opposing backs all year, so James Conner figures to have a big performance.

Conner’s great running will help Murray immensely because this would ordinarily be a difficult matchup for him. The Jets are exceptional against the pass when all three of their talented cornerbacks are healthy. However, they tend to allow decent yardage to tight ends, so Murray should have success targeting Trey McBride.

RECAP: Both of these teams had their detractors a couple of weeks ago, but are now viewed more favorably. The Jets were given up for dead after they lost to the Patriots, but rebounded against the Texans last Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were blown out by the Packers, but went on to vanquish the Chargers, Dolphins, and Bears.

There’s no opportunity to fade an overrated team or back an underrated squad. Neither team will be flat off an upset victory. The spread seems correct as well. I’m not seeing a good betting opportunity in this game.

I’m going to side with the Cardinals because I like their matchup with Conner going against the Jets’ poor run defense, but I can’t ignore that New York has some advantages as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Three Jets offensive linemen missed Wednesday’s practice (Alijah Vera-Tucker, John Simpson, Morgan Moses). Despite this, some sharp money has come in on the Jets.

PLAYER PROPS: James Conner has gone over his posted rushing yards total in four of his previous six games, and the Jets suck against the run. Conner should have a big game. The best number is over 77.5 -113 at BetRivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets will be getting back two of their safeties, and potentially Alijah Vera-Tucker. I still don’t have a good feel for this game, though the sharps have been all over the Jets. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are on the Jets. I don’t quite get it, but it’s not like I want to bet the Cardinals either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets to -2, but no further. Alijah Vera-Tucker is a surprise active, but that’s not enough to sway me to New York. The best line is +2 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 63% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-93 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-21 ATS as an underdog. ???

Cardinals are 50-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.