2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Giants at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: We have some high drama entering this German affair. Dave Canales stated that he hasn’t decided which quarterback will start this game. He cited a competitive advantage. Look at Coach Canales, talking about competitive advantages after winning a game!

Obviously, Andy Dalton would be the better choice to win outright, but it would be odd to see this sort of change after Young led the Panthers to a victory. If it’s Young, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to take advantage of the Giants’ weaknesses at cornerback. Dalton, conversely, could connect enough with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker to consistently move the chains, as the offensive line will be able to give him ample protection.

One big advantage the Panthers will be able to capitalize on, regardless of which quarterback plays, is the running game. Chuba Hubbard has been excellent this year, and he has a dream matchup against the Giants’ awful run defense, which made Najee Harris look like Walter Payton two weeks ago.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Of course, the Giants have mismatch edges all over the field in this game. It’s rare for the Giants’ scoring unit to be better than the opponent, but that’s the case in this contest.

The Panthers have a historically bad defense. They’re horrible in every regard. They have the league’s worst pressure rate. This is great news for Daniel Jones, who hasn’t gotten any protection since Andrew Thomas was lost for the year. Carolina will not be able to capitalize on this, which will once again render them inept against No. 1 receivers. They haven’t been able to cover outside receivers all year, so Malik Nabers projects incredibly well.

Carolina has also been inept against the run. Alvin Kamara just had 200 yards from scrimmage, so the electric Tyrone Tracy should have a monstrous performance as well.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Ravens-Bengals pick capsule, I like betting on the superior team in Thursday and London games. The Giants are probably the better team in this matchup, but do we know that for certain? Their defense is superior, but it still stinks. And their offense should be better than Carolina’s if Young plays, but what if the Panthers go with Dalton? The Giants can’t block, while the Panthers boast a pretty solid offensive line.

I’m going to be on the Giants if Young starts because I don’t want any part of Carolina with him as the starting quarterback, especially following a win. Plus, Carolina is a public dog as of Tuesday afternoon, so that seems like a nice fade. I may, however, switch to the Panthers if Dalton is announced as the starter. Either way, I don’t envision myself betting this game, aside from the usual player prop and same-game parlay.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is betting the Panthers, but the sharps are all over the Giants. If you’re wondering why, the Panthers have announced that they’re sticking with Bryce Young as the starter. I want no part of Carolina.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Our primary player prop bet will be on Malik Nabers over receiving yards. Nabers’ stats have dipped lately because Andrew Thomas’ injury hasn’t allowed Daniel Jones to deliver deep passes as a result of diminished protection. He should have it this week, however, as the Panthers have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Carolina also allows big yardage to No. 1 receivers. The best number is over 71.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.

I’m throwing in the Nabers over receiving yards – it has shifted to 74.5 – with Tyrone Tracy over 73.5 rushing yards, Chuba Hubbard over 65.5 rushing yards, and Ja’Tavion Sanders under 23.5 receiving yards. Both teams are very weak to the run, so I like both backs to go over their rushing yards props. Meanwhile, the Giants have been one of the best teams against tight ends this year. This $25 parlay pays $276.22 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only real injury here is Ikem Ekwonu being out again. I still don’t see any sort of edge in this game, so this is a complete pass for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is more sharp money on the Giants than any other NFL team this week. I still can’t bet them though. If you like them, you may have noticed that the vig has risen on their -6.5 line. However, you can still get -6.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -5.

Computer Model: Giants -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

The Panthers … are a public dog?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.