2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Steelers at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Both teams just made trades that affect this side of the ball. After trying to obtain Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, and other receivers, the Steelers finally traded for a player at the position, acquiring Mike Williams. The Redskins, meanwhile, secured Marshon Lattimore from the Saints.

This is obviously a huge win for the Redskins, as Lattimore is one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL when healthy, while Williams isn’t 100 percent because of last year’s ACL tear. Lattimore’s presence will help an ailing secondary, and he’ll be operating with a better pass rush than he saw in New Orleans. The Redskins apply pressure at a top-10 rate, and I don’t trust the Steelers to protect Russell Wilson.

The Redskins are weaker to the run than the pass. Perhaps Lattimore’s presence will allow them to play closer to the line of scrimmage, but Najee Harris still projects well in this matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I also expect the Steelers to apply pressure on Jayden Daniels. I don’t trust Washington’s edge blocking, especially against T.J. Watt. Daniels could be under duress often in this game.

Unlike Wilson at this stage of his career, Daniels will be able to escape pressure and sprint for big gains. He can also buy some time in the pocket and launch deep balls to Terry McLaurin. Daniels has been dealing with bruised ribs the past two weeks, but he figures to be healthier this week.

The Steelers are usually pretty stout against the run, so I wouldn’t count on Brian Robinson Jr. having a big game. Robinson is dealing with an injury anyway, so he may not suit up for this contest.

RECAP: Steelers +8.5 seemed like a great teaser leg when the line opened. Mike Tomlin is great in an underdog role, and his team often keeps games close because of the great defense. The Redskins didn’t even beat the horrible Giants by more than five, so they’re going to defeat Pittsburgh by nine or more? I don’t see it.

But what about Steelers +3? There’s not much room for error here, as Russell Wilson will have to beat Jayden Daniels to cover. Obviously, there’s much more to that because of Pittsburgh’s terrific defense, and such, but Washington has a top-10 defensive unit as well this year, and that will be boosted by the Lattimore trade. Wilson is not a good quarterback, so it’ll be difficult for him to navigate though Dan Quinn’s unit.

So, why not bet the Redskins? The issue is that they play against the Eagles on Thursday night next week. That’s a much more important game for the Redskins, so there could be a look-ahead factor, even though Pittsburgh is 6-2. Plus, as I said, Tomlin is terrific as an underdog.

I’m not a big believer in the Steelers, so I will side with Washington, but I can’t recommend any sort of wager on this game, aside from the aforementioned teaser leg if the line comes back down to -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore missed Wednesday’s practice, so perhaps he won’t be able to play right away for his new team. This might be the one of the reasons why the sharps took the Steelers at +3.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going over on Pat Freiermuth, who recorded 51 receiving yards in his first game with Russell Wilson. This prop is only 24.5 even though the Redskins have allowed lots of yardage to tight ends lately. The best number is over 24.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: After all the excitement with Marshon Lattimore joining the Redskins causing the line to move from -2.5 to -3, it was announced that he won’t even play this game. Brian Robinson is out as well. This might be a sign that the Redskins are not going all out in this game, so I definitely would not side with them. I still like the Steelers teaser play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Steelers this morning. This line has dropped to +1 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +2.5 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

The Redskins have the Eagles coming up on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Good lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Tomlin is 60-34 ATS as an underdog.

Redskins are 22-34 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.