2024 NFL Picks – Week 10: Dolphins at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, where tonight, the St. Louis Rams take on the Miami Dolphins. Guys, I don’t know why we’re even broadcasting this game. Who even cares about these teams? I bet that if you take my Philadelphia Eagles and put them against both teams combined, we’d win going away. It wouldn’t even be close. Eleven on 22, bring it on! No one beats my Philadelphia Eagles!

Emmitt: Thanks, Rydia. But I have to disagreement with you even if I do not wanted to. The Miami Dolphin not really a good team because Tuna Tagobagalogi always get his head debacled, but the Lost Angeles Ram real good now that Pookie Nacookie and Cupper Koop healthy again. Also, 22 a lot bigger number than 11. I learnted this when I was in school at Florida State University Go Gata School. If you time 11 time two, you probably almost get 22, so that how much bigger 22 is than 11!

Reilly: Emmitt, 11 times two is exactly 22. I learned that in Mother’s home-schooling class a couple of weeks ago. I memorized the whole times table. The trick is to envision how many Nick Foles bobbleheads you have in your room. I have so many Eagles bobbleheads that girls would be impressed if I were allowed to speak to them.

Tollefson: Reilly, you really know nothing about women, do you? Yes, yes, you can impress women all you want with your money, and your cars, and your Nick Foles bobbleheads, but why even bother going through all the trouble? All you need is a towel – it doesn’t even have to be clean – and some chloroform, and bam, you have a female slave for life. Provided she actually does her job, of course. If not, she’ll pay the ultimate price!

Reilly: And what price is that, Tolly? Vacuuming the house? Because Mother makes me do that before all of my Philadelphia Eagles games, and it’s so annoying! Speaking of annoying, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Tua Tagovailoa has been kidnapped and is currently being anally probed. One of the aliens is Matt Millen. OK, we’re joined by a man who claims that he’s a leader of a country and also a football coach. What a combo. Who are you, and why do you look particularly effeminate?

Tim Walz: I don’t like that word, effeminate, Charissa. I prefer masculinely challenged. It’s a challenge being a man who respects women in today’s society. In fact, I have some tampons with me, Charissa. I have one for you, and I have one for each of the male members of the broadcasting booth. In fact, I have a special tampon that I use here with me that I’m ready to give away to one lucky male broadcaster if they can answer my three questions.

Charissa Thompson: Wait, I can’t help but pay attention to this interview, which is really draining my energy here. You want to give tampons to men? Why?

Tim Walz: Charissa, if you were a man, I’d be offended by what you just asked. Why wouldn’t men need tampons? I put tampons in all the boys bathrooms in elementary schools in my great state of Minnesota. Boys need tampons to stick them up their bungholes. That’s why, Charissa. It’s very important that men do this. Now, it’s time for my riddles. First question: Which players run the meanest pick-six plays in football? Second, which team has the most successful fifth-down percentage in the NFL? And third, how many sacks were thrown for touchdowns last year? These are all difficult questions, Charissa, but I’m a former football coach, just a regular guy, you know? Just one of the boys who knows how to talk football.

Reilly: The answer is my Philadelphia Eagles, my Philadelphia Eagles, and my-

Matt Millen: Hey guys, sorry to crash this party, but I heard someone say something about inserting tampons into bungholes. I need to warn you guys about this. Tampons don’t have good material for backside insertion. I would recommend kielbasas. And trust me, no one knows more about inserting kielbasas into backsides than me. Tim, how about you and I go back to the hotel room with about a dozen or so 100-percent USDA Men and ride those young stallions all night long?

Reilly: Wait, I wanted the autographed tampon! Or should I take the kielbasa? President Camel Toe Harris, you seem to know a lot about a lot of things, which is why you asked Joe Rogan to come to you for an hour instead of you to him for three hours. Is the answer tampons or kielbasas?

Kamala Harris: First of all, let’s be clear here. I come from a middle-class family. And in my middle-class family, we were in between the upper and lower class. We were below the upper class, and we were above the lower class. That is called being in the middle, and that’s why I said I come from a middle-class family because it’s in the middle of upper and lower, which is right in the middle, so that’s why it’s middle class. Because it’s right in the middle instead of being upper and lower. And second, Donald Trump has been running for president for four years, you know what I mean? Do you know what I mean? Do you? Do you know? HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you once again dodged the question, which is unbelievable, your ability to dodge questions, no one has seen anything like it, and you should re-name your campaign the Dodgers because that’s all you do is dodge questions because you are a total fraud and a total disgrace, and we happen to be here in the city of Lost Angeles, which is the home of the Dodgers, the best baseball team anyone has ever seen this year, because they won the World Series, but frankly they were lucky that they didn’t go against the Trump baseball team because the Trump baseball team is the best baseball team anyone has ever seen, at least that’s what I’ve been told, no one has seen anything like it, leading off is Don Jr., the best leadoff man in the game, he’s hitting 1.000 because he’s never gotten out before, which is incredible, and then there’s Barron, who is 8-foot-9, and has stolen every base there ever is, that’s how good he is at stealing bases, no one has ever seen anything like it, and then there’s Trump, who has hit billions and billions of home runs, the best home run hitter of all time, at least that’s what people tell me, billions and billions of home runs, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE NOT THE ALL-TIME HOME RUN HITTER. MY FOURTH COUSIN THRICE REMOVED IS A BEAR WITH SWEDISH FISH FOR HANDS, AND HE HAS HIT 7.19 TRILLION HOME RUNS IN HIS CAREER.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Who cares about baseball? Baseball is stupid like Charles Davis’ face. I want to win the special tampon. New Daddy, if I win the special tampon, can you take me to Tim Walz’s magical tampon factory where tiny midgets will sing whenever some idiot falls into the river? What do you say, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Catcher’s my favorite position because they get to sit down.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, we weren’t even talking about baseball! I hate baseball!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about baseball, Kevin. Let’s discuss some baseball positions, Kevin. Your New Daddy, who doesn’t love you, Kevin, mentioned, catchers, Kevin. Let’s get to first basemen, Kevin. Moving over, you have second basemen, Kevin. Then, let’s look at shortstops, Kevin. Completing the diamond, Kevin, we have third basemen, Kevin. How about the outfield, Kevin? Before we get to that, Kevin, let’s talk about the designated hitter, Kevin, and then the designated guy who takes kielbasas up the backside, Kevin, which is you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I CHOSE TAMPONS OVER KIELBASAS, SO IF ANYTHING GOES IN MY BACKSIDE, IT’S GOING TO BE TAMPONS BECAUSE I’M A BIG BELIEVER IN TAMPON TIM BECAUSE HE KNOWS HIS FOOTBALL, UNLIKE YOU, WHO KNOWS NOTHING! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Both of these teams have had major offensive upgrades a couple of weeks ago. For the Rams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to action. The thing is, we haven’t even seen them play a full game together at 100 percent. Two weeks ago, Kupp wasn’t 100 percent, while Nacua was ejected for throwing a punch this past Sunday.

Kupp and Nacua being on the field presents a big problem for the Dolphins because they need to focus on Kyren Williams. Miami has one of the weaker run defenses in the NFL, so with Kupp and Nacua in action, the Dolphins won’t be able to stack the box in an effort to stop Williams.

With Williams going, Matthew Stafford will be able to operate in favorable passing situations. The Dolphins already had a diminished pass rush because of various injuries, so they likely won’t get to Stafford, who is protected well.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Miami’s offensive upgrade is obviously Tua Tagovailoa. Mike McDaniel was exposed as a fraud when he failed to coach up any of his backup quarterbacks, as he did stupid things like give Alec Ingold as many touches as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined in some games. Tagovailoa masks McDaniel’s incompetence.

Tagovailoa may have a difficult time operating in this game. The Rams have a terrific pass rush that gave Geno Smith major problems. The Dolphins don’t have a very good offensive line, so Tagovailoa will be pressured all night.

Tagovailoa won’t be able to lean on the rushing attack because Miami doesn’t run block well, so he will have to counter by throwing short passes to his supporting cast, namely De’Von Achane. The Rams have a shaky linebacking corps, so this could be a viable strategy.

RECAP: Both of these teams have one major defensive weakness. The Rams can be beaten over the middle of the field because their linebacking corps is pedestrian, while the Dolphins are weak to the run. I don’t trust McDaniel to recognize Los Angeles’ weakness. McVay is far more trustworthy to do so, and he has the personnel to attack this liability anyway. Williams should be able to trample over Miami’s defense.

The Rams also project to pressure the opposing quarterback more than the Dolphins, so they project to win the matchups. They also have another advantage, which is that they’re the West Coast home team in a night game. Circadian rhythms are a real thing, and West Coast teams have a big advantage in night games over East Coast teams.

I like the Rams for a couple of units. I’ve been siding with them the past few weeks because they’ve improved in the wake of their receivers returning from injury, and I’ll continue to stay on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Dolphins. We have no injury report yet, so I don’t know why.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a few injury question marks. Tyreek Hill was downgraded Friday with a wrist. Rob Havenstein hasn’t practiced yet because of an ankle. Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila may return from injured reserve after being full on Friday. We’ll have to see what the final injury report says.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Tyreek Hill missed practice Friday and Saturday. If he’s out, I’ll bump this up to three units.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Tyreek Hill has been described as a true game-time decision. I’ll be on the Rams for two units if he plays, and perhaps three units if he doesn’t (depending on what the spread is). The sharps were on the Dolphins earlier in the week, but other sharp money has come in on the Rams the past couple of days.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re betting Jonnu Smith over 34.5 receiving yards. Tyreek Hill is banged up, and the Rams are very weak to tight ends anyway. The best number is over 34.5 -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Smith over 34.5 receiving yards along with De’Von Achane over 5.5 receptions, Matthew Stafford over 250.5 passing yards, and Puka Nacua over 67.5 receiving yards. Achane has averaged seven catches per game and hasn’t had fewer than six in any of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts. Stafford has exceeded this passing total in every game in which both Nacua and Cooper Kupp played. And I prefer Nacua over Kupp because the Dolphins are strong versus slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $208.08 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned in the Monday afternoon update, there’s been sharp money coming in on both sides. Tyreek Hill is active, but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent. I’m going to be on the Rams for two units. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 51% (230,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Dolphins are 29-20 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.