NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
2024 NFL Picks: 72-72-6 (-$3,290)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 9 Analysis: I can’t believe we went 0-for-3 in the five-unit picks last week. We did well otherwise, so just hitting one of those would have allowed us to break even on the week. Had we gone 2-of-3, we would have won more than $1,000. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chargers, 4 units (win): The Browns were flat off their “Super Bowl” win against the Ravens. The Chargers averaged 2.3 more yards per play than Cleveland despite Justin Herbert taking six sacks.

Broncos, 5 units (loss): I was counting on the Ravens being unfocused with a Thursday game on the horizon. At the very least, I thought Denver could be in line for a back-door cover. Instead, the Ravens went all out against the hapless Broncos for some reason, exposing them as the frauds we knew they were.

Raiders, 5 units (loss): We had a chance at a back-door cover here. The Raiders were driving, down 31-17, with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter. They crossed midfield, but then Desmond Ridder took two sacks and turned the ball over on downs. The Raiders quit and gave up a touchdown to a wide-open Mike Gesicki. I love how the Raiders screwed us last week with a back-door cover against a far-superior Chiefs team, but then couldn’t get a back-door cover against the Bengals, who struggled to beat Daniel Jones and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The s**t luck we’ve had this year has been ridiculous.

Redskins, 3 units (win): The Redskins nearly blew this game despite being up by two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter.

Colts, 5 units (loss): The Colts, as six-point dogs, were down just 14-10 with 5:30 remaining. They drove over midfield and had a third-and-2. Did they run Jonathan Taylor on that play, or the ensuing fourth-and-2? No. Of course not. Instead, they had Joe Flacco lob a helpless pass to some bum named Ashton Dulin to turn the ball over on downs, and then the Vikings scored the front-door touchdown with 2:05 remaining. So, we can’t get the back-door cover from a team that has been back dooring all year, but we can get front doored because an idiot coach doesn’t understand that he should use his best players in the most crucial moments. I truly love how this season has been going.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup a few weeks ago, so we know that Joe Burrow is capable of performing on a high level. Burrow threw five touchdowns against the Ravens in an overtime loss in Baltimore.

This was no fluke. The Ravens do not have a good defense. They’re excellent against the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from Chase Brown. However, they have major problems in their secondary. They won’t be able to cover Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, who is expected back for this game. Baltimore also leaves the middle of the field wide open, so Mike Gesicki could have another great performance.

There’s only one concern with the Bengals, and that would be Zac Taylor’s in-game management. We had the Bengals at +2.5 in the first meeting between these teams. The Bengals led by double digits on three separate occasions, yet they didn’t cover because Taylor did stupid things in overtime. It’s not out of the question that Taylor could find a way to screw up again.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As impressive as Cincinnati’s offense was in the first meeting, the Ravens were even better. The Bengals stacked the box to limit Derrick Henry, and it didn’t matter. Lamar Jackson shredded them mercilessly during three double-digit comebacks. He and Zay Flowers had a great connection throughout the second half.

The Bengals have a horrible secondary, so they still won’t have an answer for Flowers. They now have to worry about Diontae Johnson as well. Johnson didn’t play much last week, but he’ll see more action in his second game.

It’ll be interesting to see if Cincinnati once again stacks the box against Henry. It didn’t work last time, so the strategy could change. Henry was limited, but Baltimore still scored 41 points, so the Bengals may go back to the drawing board.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Ravens are certainly the better team. Both offenses can be electric, but the Ravens have the better defense. That may seem odd to say because I’ve been dogging Baltimore’s defense all year for being incapable of defending the pass, but the Bengals can’t defend anything. They can’t stop the run or the pass, and they also can’t generate consistent quarterback pressure. The Ravens also have the superior rushing attack.

I’m going to be on Baltimore, but I don’t see myself betting this game because this spread screams back-door cover. Laying six or more against Burrow is just asking for trouble, so I’d rather just avoid this game.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins is doubtful, so that makes me a bit more confident in the Ravens. I don’t think I can get there with any sort of wager though.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop is Chase Brown over receiving yards. Zack Moss was the receiving back until last week when he landed on injured reserve. Brown responded with five receptions for 37 receiving yards. This should continue against the Ravens, who have allowed a ton of receiving yards to Javonte Williams and Rachaad White recently. The best number is over 23.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m tossing in the Brown over receiving yards prop with Mark Andrews over 43.5 receiving yards, Zay Flowers over 61.5 receiving yards, and Tanner Hudson over 13.5 receiving yards. The Bengals are weak to tight ends and No. 1 receivers, so Flowers and Andrews look great. Baltimore is also woeful versus tight ends, and with Ereck All out, Tanner Hudson will take that role with Mike Gesicki playing in the slot. This $25 parlay pays $280.71 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Tee Higgins and Orland Brown are sidelined. I’m sticking with the Ravens, but won’t be betting them. The sharps haven’t touched this either. Most books have a -6 -115 line, so the -5.5 -120 at FanDuel looks favorable because we’re only paying five cents for the No. 3 key number of six.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 51% (290,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Ravens have won the last 3 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 40-20 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: We have some high drama entering this German affair. Dave Canales stated that he hasn’t decided which quarterback will start this game. He cited a competitive advantage. Look at Coach Canales, talking about competitive advantages after winning a game!

Obviously, Andy Dalton would be the better choice to win outright, but it would be odd to see this sort of change after Young led the Panthers to a victory. If it’s Young, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to take advantage of the Giants’ weaknesses at cornerback. Dalton, conversely, could connect enough with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker to consistently move the chains, as the offensive line will be able to give him ample protection.

One big advantage the Panthers will be able to capitalize on, regardless of which quarterback plays, is the running game. Chuba Hubbard has been excellent this year, and he has a dream matchup against the Giants’ awful run defense, which made Najee Harris look like Walter Payton two weeks ago.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Of course, the Giants have mismatch edges all over the field in this game. It’s rare for the Giants’ scoring unit to be better than the opponent, but that’s the case in this contest.

The Panthers have a historically bad defense. They’re horrible in every regard. They have the league’s worst pressure rate. This is great news for Daniel Jones, who hasn’t gotten any protection since Andrew Thomas was lost for the year. Carolina will not be able to capitalize on this, which will once again render them inept against No. 1 receivers. They haven’t been able to cover outside receivers all year, so Malik Nabers projects incredibly well.

Carolina has also been inept against the run. Alvin Kamara just had 200 yards from scrimmage, so the electric Tyrone Tracy should have a monstrous performance as well.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Ravens-Bengals pick capsule, I like betting on the superior team in Thursday and London games. The Giants are probably the better team in this matchup, but do we know that for certain? Their defense is superior, but it still stinks. And their offense should be better than Carolina’s if Young plays, but what if the Panthers go with Dalton? The Giants can’t block, while the Panthers boast a pretty solid offensive line.

I’m going to be on the Giants if Young starts because I don’t want any part of Carolina with him as the starting quarterback, especially following a win. Plus, Carolina is a public dog as of Tuesday afternoon, so that seems like a nice fade. I may, however, switch to the Panthers if Dalton is announced as the starter. Either way, I don’t envision myself betting this game, aside from the usual player prop and same-game parlay.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is betting the Panthers, but the sharps are all over the Giants. If you’re wondering why, the Panthers have announced that they’re sticking with Bryce Young as the starter. I want no part of Carolina.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Our primary player prop bet will be on Malik Nabers over receiving yards. Nabers’ stats have dipped lately because Andrew Thomas’ injury hasn’t allowed Daniel Jones to deliver deep passes as a result of diminished protection. He should have it this week, however, as the Panthers have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Carolina also allows big yardage to No. 1 receivers. The best number is over 71.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.

I’m throwing in the Nabers over receiving yards – it has shifted to 74.5 – with Tyrone Tracy over 73.5 rushing yards, Chuba Hubbard over 65.5 rushing yards, and Ja’Tavion Sanders under 23.5 receiving yards. Both teams are very weak to the run, so I like both backs to go over their rushing yards props. Meanwhile, the Giants have been one of the best teams against tight ends this year. This $25 parlay pays $276.22 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only real injury here is Ikem Ekwonu being out again. I still don’t see any sort of edge in this game, so this is a complete pass for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is more sharp money on the Giants than any other NFL team this week. I still can’t bet them though. If you like them, you may have noticed that the vig has risen on their -6.5 line. However, you can still get -6.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -5.

Computer Model: Giants -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

The Panthers … are a public dog?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Giants -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 22-19 ATS through eight weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins -4

Texans +2

Eagles -7.5

Bengals -7.5

Bills -6

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This was truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides were now 20-14 on the year, as sportsbooks had taken a huge beating.

Well, the turntables turned in Week 8 because the public was 2-5, only winning with the Lions and Steelers. Many teasers surely failed as well with Baltimore losing outright. The public then went 2-3 in Week 9. The public is now 24-22.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -4

Bills -4

Lions -3

Chargers -8

Falcons -3.5

Four of the five are road favorites. Will the Joes win these “easy” picks?

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen is not nearly the same quarterback who entered the NFL, or even quarterbacked the Bills in following seasons. He’s been safer with the ball than the reckless phenom who came into the league in 2018. He amazingly has just two interceptions on the year, as he’s done a great job of moving the chains methodically despite not possessing a legitimate No. 1 receiver until the Amari Cooper trade.

Cooper was out last week, but he may be able to return this Sunday. Cooper opens things up for all of the other receivers, which is bad news for the Colts, who possess a shaky secondary. Indianapolis is also weak to tight ends, so Dalton Kincaid could really benefit from Cooper’s return.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Bills won’t be the only team moving the chains on the ground efficiently in this game. Jonathan Taylor couldn’t find any running room against the Vikings, but this is a much better matchup for him. Buffalo has been gashed by opposing backs this year, so Taylor will rebound from his poor performance.

The Colts should consider utilizing Taylor as a receiver out of the backfield as well. The Bills surrender more receiving yardage to opposing backs than any team in the NFL. Taylor saw five targets against Minnesota, so the Colts should throw even more passes to him.

The Bills have also given up big outings to opposing tight ends and slot receivers. The Colts don’t have the personnel to capitalize on the former, but they certainly do with the latter. Josh Downs has made a big leap in his second year. He’s had some explosive games this season, and this could certainly be another one.

RECAP: This is a sandwich situation if I’ve ever seen one. The Bills are coming off a last-second victory against the divisional rival Dolphins. After this game, they have to battle the Chiefs for a chance to obtain the No. 1 seed down the line. Will Buffalo be focused at all in this game?

If the Bills are flat at all, the Colts could steal this game. Buffalo is weak to running backs and slot receivers, which is where the Colts are strongest. Indianapolis establishing Taylor – and hopefully using him in crucial situations for once – would allow the Colts to keep the Bills offense off the field. That could frustrate Allen and cause him to make some mistakes for the first time all season.

The Colts have kept games close all year, losing by eight or fewer points in every contest. This line is only four, so a six- or seven-point result would be a loss for us, but I’m still going to be on Indianapolis. I do have some concern about Flacco battling this caliber of defense, but it’s not like Buffalo has possessed an elite stop unit this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keon Coleman may miss this game, but the Bills could get Amari Cooper back. Nothing new to report otherwise.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not seeing anything I like here. I wanted to bet Josh Downs, but his prop numbers are inflated.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keon Coleman has been ruled out, and Amari Cooper may not play either. The Bills aren’t the only team missing a receiver, with Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined as well. Pittman hasn’t been very good lately because of a lingering back injury, so the Colts won’t be missing much with him sidelined this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Amari Cooper for the Bills, and yet the line went up to -4.5? OK? I still like the Colts despite this odd line movement. The sharps haven’t bet this game. The best line is +4.5 -110 at Caesars or FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

Sandwich situation for the Bills. They just beat the Dolphins at the last second, and they have the Chiefs after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.

Computer Model: Bills -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 82% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Bills are 14-38 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Our friend Nephtali is back! He hasn’t been around since Week 1. I was worried he was hospitalized for eating glue, or something, but he rushed to criticize me for the incorrect five-unit picks.

It’s weird to hear Nephtali say “my guy,” hence the nudes he sent for those “pixk.”

Nepatali doesn’t understand sarcasm. I didn’t expect him to understand the “it came down to one play” reply. That just went completely over his head, like everything else.

One thing you have to know about Nephtali is that he loves pumping himself up to make himself look better. For instance, he told me that his sportsbook hand delivers a turkey to him each Thanksgiving, which is completely absurd. That is why I said the following:

Nephtali visited my site to know my picks, but illiterate brain couldn’t see that I said I was awaiting Jordan Love’s status. Sad.

Here, Nephtali demonstrates that in addition to being unable to read, he can’t do math:

Can you imagine not being able to read or do math, and yet still getting a turkey delivered to your house every Thanksgiving? This is one “special” guy!

Also, I don’t know why Nephtali is bragging about “smashing” blow job tournaments, but here we are.

“My guy” … “blow job tournaments” … This Nephtali guy sure is progressive.

Now, Nephtali is talking about clientele? My apologies if any gay person read this and was unexpectedly aroused in a public setting. Sorry, I should have warned ahead of time!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It didn’t take very long for Cam Robinson to be matched up against his former team. The Robinson trade saved Minnesota’s season, as he was an adequate, but not great replacement for Christian Darrisaw in his first game. Robinson’s play should improve as the season progresses as he develops chemistry with his new teammates.

I do wonder, however, if the Jaguars will have an edge in this game because of Robinson’s presence. The Jacksonville edge rushers battled Robinson every day in practice, so they may know some of his liabilities. Perhaps the Jaguars will be able to pressure Sam Darnold as a result, which will be huge because they need all the help they can get. Their secondary has been better with Tyson Campbell, but containing Justin Jefferson is impossible.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, so they can keep Aaron Jones in check on the ground. However, they’ve been gashed by running backs through the air. Saquon Barkley beat them for a touchdown reception last week, so perhaps Jones will do the same.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The first thing you need to do when handicapping a game against Minnesota’s defense is to evaluate how well a quarterback performs against the blitz. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, so this is crucial information. Last week, I liked the Colts more with Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richardson because Flacco’s completion percentage versus the blitz was much higher than Richardson’s (51 vs. 29). Still, Flacco’s number wasn’t high enough to warrant a huge bet on the Colts, which is where I made a huge mistake.

Flacco wasn’t great against the blitz, but Trevor Lawrence is. Keep in mind that Flacco’s 51 percent was far superior to Richardson’s 29. Lawrence’s completion percentage against the blitz is 64.4. Versus the blitz this year, Lawrence is 47-of-73 for 545 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. This is not a fluke. I want to ignore last season because Lawrence was playing hurt, but in 2022, Lawrence was 69.4 percent against the blitz with eight touchdowns and four picks. Going back a year, Lawrence went against Brian Flores’ Dolphins defense in 2021. In that game, he was 25-of-41 for 319 yards, one touchdown and no picks in a 23-20 victory despite being just a rookie. Lawrence has his struggles sometimes, but he is terrific against the blitz.

The Vikings tend to struggle against opposing No. 1 receivers and tight ends when opposing quarterbacks solve their blitz, which works for Lawrence because he can target Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram. Thomas wasn’t totally healthy last week, but he should be close to 100 percent by Sunday.

RECAP: If you consider the Vikings and Packers to be about equal – or even Green Bay being a bit superior – then the Jaguars should be considered the correct side. A couple of weeks ago, the Packers were four-point favorites in Jacksonville. They won, but didn’t cover, prevailing by just three points.

The Vikings are now favored by about the same number, so it makes sense to be on Jacksonville, especially considering the schematic advantage that Lawrence has against this defense, which I detailed above.

Also, consider that the Vikings are coming off a victory on national TV. This could be a potential flat spot against a game Jaguar team that has been very competitive the past three weeks. They have just one win to show for it, but they’ve covered every single game, and if they’re down, Lawrence has shown that he can engineer some drives to keep the game close.

While the public is pounding Minnesota, I’ll be on the Jaguars for several units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to Minnesota -4.5. I wonder if that’s because the Jaguars missed two linemen in practice (Brandon Scherff, Ezra Cleveland). Remember, the Jaguars gave Cam Robinson to the Vikings, so if Scherff and Cleveland are out, Jacksonville will be down three blockers.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Vikings -7 -105 at ESPNBet. Ian Rapoport reported that Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play with a shoulder injury. There’s a chance Lawrence will suit up, but we’ve seen him play hurt late last year, and it wasn’t pretty. This spread of -7 without Lawrence is absurd because the Jaguars, with a backup quarterback and potentially multiple missing offensive linemen, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. This line should be -10 at the very least. A backup quarterback versus Brian Flores seems like such an easy bet. This is a five-unit selection, and the best line is -7 -105 at ESPNBet.

PLAYER PROPS: Aaron Jones’ receiving yards prop makes no sense. It’s 17.5, and yet he’s crossed that number in every game since Week 2. Furthermore, Jacksonville is weak to pass-catching backs. The best line is over 17.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: We already bet this game at -7, but the spread has dropped to -6.5 for unknown reasons. Maybe there’s some belief Trevor Lawrence will play – he’s questionable after being limited all week – but recent reports indicate that he’s unlikely to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe this line is only -7 now that we know that Trevor Lawrence is out for sure. The sharps bet the Vikings earlier in the week at a lower number. The best line is -7 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Vikings are coming off a win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Will anyone bet the Jaguars?

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 87% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Jaguars are 64-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 20-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Both teams just made trades that affect this side of the ball. After trying to obtain Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, and other receivers, the Steelers finally traded for a player at the position, acquiring Mike Williams. The Redskins, meanwhile, secured Marshon Lattimore from the Saints.

This is obviously a huge win for the Redskins, as Lattimore is one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL when healthy, while Williams isn’t 100 percent because of last year’s ACL tear. Lattimore’s presence will help an ailing secondary, and he’ll be operating with a better pass rush than he saw in New Orleans. The Redskins apply pressure at a top-10 rate, and I don’t trust the Steelers to protect Russell Wilson.

The Redskins are weaker to the run than the pass. Perhaps Lattimore’s presence will allow them to play closer to the line of scrimmage, but Najee Harris still projects well in this matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I also expect the Steelers to apply pressure on Jayden Daniels. I don’t trust Washington’s edge blocking, especially against T.J. Watt. Daniels could be under duress often in this game.

Unlike Wilson at this stage of his career, Daniels will be able to escape pressure and sprint for big gains. He can also buy some time in the pocket and launch deep balls to Terry McLaurin. Daniels has been dealing with bruised ribs the past two weeks, but he figures to be healthier this week.

The Steelers are usually pretty stout against the run, so I wouldn’t count on Brian Robinson Jr. having a big game. Robinson is dealing with an injury anyway, so he may not suit up for this contest.

RECAP: Steelers +8.5 seemed like a great teaser leg when the line opened. Mike Tomlin is great in an underdog role, and his team often keeps games close because of the great defense. The Redskins didn’t even beat the horrible Giants by more than five, so they’re going to defeat Pittsburgh by nine or more? I don’t see it.

But what about Steelers +3? There’s not much room for error here, as Russell Wilson will have to beat Jayden Daniels to cover. Obviously, there’s much more to that because of Pittsburgh’s terrific defense, and such, but Washington has a top-10 defensive unit as well this year, and that will be boosted by the Lattimore trade. Wilson is not a good quarterback, so it’ll be difficult for him to navigate though Dan Quinn’s unit.

So, why not bet the Redskins? The issue is that they play against the Eagles on Thursday night next week. That’s a much more important game for the Redskins, so there could be a look-ahead factor, even though Pittsburgh is 6-2. Plus, as I said, Tomlin is terrific as an underdog.

I’m not a big believer in the Steelers, so I will side with Washington, but I can’t recommend any sort of wager on this game, aside from the aforementioned teaser leg if the line comes back down to -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore missed Wednesday’s practice, so perhaps he won’t be able to play right away for his new team. This might be the one of the reasons why the sharps took the Steelers at +3.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going over on Pat Freiermuth, who recorded 51 receiving yards in his first game with Russell Wilson. This prop is only 24.5 even though the Redskins have allowed lots of yardage to tight ends lately. The best number is over 24.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: After all the excitement with Marshon Lattimore joining the Redskins causing the line to move from -2.5 to -3, it was announced that he won’t even play this game. Brian Robinson is out as well. This might be a sign that the Redskins are not going all out in this game, so I definitely would not side with them. I still like the Steelers teaser play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Steelers this morning. This line has dropped to +1 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +2.5 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

The Redskins have the Eagles coming up on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Good lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 60-34 ATS as an underdog.

Redskins are 22-34 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: We must begin with the Saints because of all the news. It started with Chris Olave suffering yet another concussion on Sunday. This one was more severe than the previous one, as he had to be removed from the field on a stretcher, so it’s very unlikely that he’ll play anytime soon. The next day, Dennis Allen was fired. This was a great move by the Saints, who should have dismissed him long ago.

Olave’s absence will be more impactful because he’s such a talented receiver. That, and Rashid Shaheed being out of the lineup will severely limit the passing offense. Luckily for the Saints, they’ll be matched up against the Falcons’ poor defense. Atlanta can’t stop the pass or generate pressure on the quarterback, so Derek Carr could have some success moving the chains.

The Saints still at least have Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. They’ll be able to move the ball on the ground. The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but they’re not that good versus the former. Kamara rushed for 77 yards on 19 carries and caught seven balls for 42 receiving yards the first time these teams met, and he could be in for similar production.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints have some major issues on this side of the ball as well. They were down their top three cornerbacks last week, so if that’s the case again this week – we already know Marshon Lattimore is gone – they’ll be in big trouble against Kirk Cousins’ aerial assault. The only way they’d be bailed out is if Drake London sits. London suffered a hip injury, but he’s considered “day to day,” so it’s likely that he’ll suit up for this game.

Even if London is out, the Saints will have issues stopping the Falcons because they won’t be able to contain Bijan Robinson. Their soft run defense just allowed a big game to Chuba Hubbard, so Robinson should be excited about this matchup.

Robinson’s rushing will make things even easier for Kirk Cousins, who won’t be facing much of a pass rush. The Saints are 11th worst in pressure rate.

RECAP: One of our favorite angles is to bet a team after they fired their head coach. Players will try harder than usual because they want to make sure that the finger is not pointed at them. The Saints, of course, dismissed Allen after they were embarrassed in a loss to the woeful Panthers. They’ll be trying their hardest in this game.

Conversely, I’m not sure if we’ll get the Falcons’ best effort. They just beat the Buccaneers to establish control in the division, and then the Cowboys. This is also a divisional rival, but the Falcons already beat the Saints.

It must also be noted that we’re getting great line value. Prior to Week 9, the Falcons were -1 on the advance spread. They’re now -3.5. A move of 2.5 points isn’t always extreme, but a move through the ultimate key number of three certainly is. Sometimes, there are injuries to warrant such a move, but in this case, Olave being the sole player to get hurt from a week ago isn’t enough to shift the line 2.5 points. A move of 0.5 or maybe even one makes sense, but 2.5 through the key number of three? No way.

I’ll be betting the Saints for a few units. I love the value and motivation we’ll be getting with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I never thought I’d lead off with Kool-Aid McKinstry, but he didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he’s out, that would mean the Saints are out their top three cornerbacks again, with Marshon Lattimore traded. Chris Olave was DNP on Wednesday as well, but it would be a total shock if he played.

PLAYER PROPS: I ended up betting Ray-Ray McCloud over 27.5 receiving yards because the Saints are woeful against slot receivers. The best number is over 27.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake London is the only injury question mark for the Falcons. He’s questionable after being limited all week. Conversely, the Saints will be down their top three receivers, top three cornerbacks, and three starting offensive linemen. I’m going to downgrade this to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London will play, while the Saints are dealing with so many injuries. With the Saints having all these injuries, this line is still only +3.5. This is because the sharps are on New Orleans. The best line is +3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons already beat the Saints, and they’re coming off some big wins.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.

Computer Model: Saints -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

All the money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 86% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Though the Chiefs nearly lost to the Buccaneers, the fans have to be very encouraged by what they saw Monday night because Kansas City finally established a viable threat at receiver, which the team has lacked ever since Rashee Rice got knocked out for the year. DeAndre Hopkins was excellent in his second game with the Chiefs, scoring two touchdowns and snatching a 35-yard reception out of the air and away from a defender.

Hopkins had a great matchup last week, but he’ll be locked up against Patrick Surtain II this time. Still, Patrick Mahomes’ other options will be available, specifically Travis Kelce. The Broncos have struggled to cover tight ends this year, so Kelce projects very well.

The Chiefs might have some success on the ground as well. The Broncos aren’t terrible against the run, but they’re not great in that regard either. They rank 14th, and Kareem Hunt has been far better than expected since taking over for the injured Isiah Pacheco.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos will not be able to run the ball. They’d love to establish Javonte Williams, but that will be very difficult against the Chiefs, who have the No. 1 defense against ground attacks.

Bo Nix will have to do it all himself, which was the case last week against Baltimore’s sixth-ranked rush defense. Nix put together some nice drives, but wasn’t consistent enough in that regard. It also didn’t help that Denver shot itself in the foot repeatedly in Ravens territory.

The Broncos will have to play mistake-free football to be competitive with the Chiefs, which doesn’t seem possible with a rookie quarterback. Kansas City has a knack for locking down No. 1 receivers, so with Courtland Sutton restricted, where will Nix go? The other options are very pedestrian, so it’ll be very difficult for Denver to consistently move the chains.

RECAP: I was really hoping that the Broncos would either beat the Ravens, or keep last week’s game close. If that happened, the line may have dropped a bit from the advance spread of -9. Perhaps a line of -7 would have been too much to ask, but crazier things have happened.

I really wanted to get the Chiefs at -7 because they’d be able to expose the Broncos as frauds. Unfortunately, the Ravens did that. Because of that result, this spread swelled to -9.5 before falling back to -8 in the wake of the Monday night result.

I still would be on the Chiefs. They typically don’t cover high lines like this during the regular season, but first matchups against divisional opponents are different. They’ll be focused for the Broncos because a loss here would allow Denver to creep closer to them in the standings. We’d normally be able to take the Broncos against an unfocused Chiefs team in a rematch later in the year, but there’s a good chance Kansas City will be sitting its starters in Week 18.

At any rate, Chiefs -8 is still the play, but I don’t plan on betting in this game, aside from a teaser down to -2.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s rare to see an injury report as clean as this during the middle of the season. The only players of significance to miss Wednesday’s practice was JuJu Smith-Schuster, and is he really significant?

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t like anything here. The Chiefs are woeful against tight ends, but the Broncos rotate two players at the position. Lucas Krull is the better of the two, but he has seen his snaps decline in each of the past three weeks.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs. The best play is teasing them down to -1.5.

TEASERS ADDED: I’m teasing the Chiefs with the Chargers and Eagles in two separate bets. I like the potential of being able to middle with both the Titans and Cowboys if Kansas City hits, though I won’t plan on doing so because I’m betting the Chargers and Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Broncos, which isn’t a surprise, given how bad the Chiefs are at covering these high spreads. You can now get a viable -7 line at BetMGM (-7 -115), which made me consider betting Kansas City for a unit, but I’ll pass.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -9.

Computer Model: Chiefs -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 62% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 16 of the last 17 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 92-24 SU, 63-51 ATS (49-38 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 58 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers may get some good news in the coming days. Christian McCaffrey has been cleared to practice, opening up his 21-day window to return to action. It remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play this week, but there’s a chance he’ll be able to do so.

If that’s the case, McCaffrey will help immensely right away. The 49ers have gotten great production out of Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, but the difference has been the red zone offense. The 49ers were first in red zone offense last year, but have fallen into the bottom five in that regard this season. McCaffrey is the difference, so he should immediately improve that aspect of the team.

Of course, the 49ers have other weapons that they’ll be able to successfully utilize in this matchup. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both figure to have great games. The Buccaneers have an injury-ravaged secondary incapable of covering anyone, and they also leave the middle of the field wide open, which obviously benefits Kittle. Jauan Jennings also figures to return to action, and he should be able to do some damage as well.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers put forth a gutsy performance against the Chiefs. Despite missing his top two receivers, Baker Mayfield took the Chiefs to overtime. Had his team won the coin toss, he may have pulled the upset.

Anyone expecting a similar result in this game will likely be disappointed. Mayfield couldn’t keep up with the Falcons two weeks ago, but was fortunate to get Kansas City in a flat spot with the Broncos on the horizon. The 49ers won’t be distracted. They battle the Seahawks next week, but they already blew out Seattle, so they have bigger fish to fry. They’ll surely be impressed by what they saw against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

Mayfield will be staring down a fierce pass rush and a talented secondary that will be able to limit his meager receiving corps. The 49ers also excel against the run, so they’ll be able to contain Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Mayfield will have success throwing to Cade Otton, but that’s about it. He’ll be stuck in long-yardage situations all afternoon, so he’ll be forced into more turnovers. Mayfield is second in the NFL in interceptions, so he’ll add to that total in this game.

RECAP: The Buccaneers put everything they had into their battle against the Chiefs. They come up short in overtime, so they’ll be exhausted in this game. It’s going to be difficult for them to match the same intensity they had against Kansas City, even as underdogs.

The 49ers seem like the right side, even if they don’t get McCaffrey back from injury. If they do, that’s a bonus, but this is a great spot for San Francisco, given how short-handed and tired Tampa Bay will be.

By the way, if you’re concerned about this being an early 1 p.m. start time for the 49ers, don’t be. Kyle Shanahan has been terrific in this situation throughout the years. Shanahan is 9-5 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast contests.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Something else that popped out was Baker Mayfield’s DNP for a toe injury, but FOX Sports’ Greg Auman said that Wednesday was just a walkthrough on a short week. Still, it’s something to monitor. If I see that Mayfield isn’t practicing today, I’m going to lock in this pick before it moves up any further.

LOCKED IN: As promised, I’m locking in the 49ers because Baker Mayfield missed Thursday’s practice. There’s still a good chance Mayfield will play, and if he does, we may lose half a point. If he’s out, however, this line will shoot up to -10.5 at the very least, so I wanted to make sure we get -6. The best line is -6 -110 at several sportsbooks, including Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers leave the middle of the field wide open, so George Kittle should have a big game. He’s gone over the posted prop yardage (56.5) in his previous four games, and why wouldn’t that continue with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined? The best number is over 56.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t like seeing that Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel are questionable after being limited in practice all week – especially given that we already bet the game. That said, this line moved from -6 to -6.5, so that is a good sign at least.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel will play, while the Buccaneers won’t have their top two cornerbacks. The sharps are on the 49ers. The best line is -6.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Buccaneers put everything they had into the Chiefs game, but lost in overtime.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Team is 139-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-74 ATS at home in the previous 116 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-33 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Here’s another Mark Dice Man on the Street interview video, where this week’s collection of idiots didn’t know how many stars are on the American flag:

I lost it when the one guy took forever to count the stars and yet came up with 55.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had a rough first two games, but improved after that. He had upgraded his play in each of the next four weeks, but has regressed in each of the past two games. The difference has been the pressure, as Williams was constantly under siege against the Redskins and Cardinals.

Things will reverse for Williams. The Patriots have the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Williams will have much more time than he had the past two games. He’ll be able to use that time to locate all of his talented weapons, as D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and company won’t have an issue getting open against the Patriots.

The Bears also figure to run the ball well. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so D’Andre Swift will pick up chunks of yardage.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots also figure to move the chains well on the ground, provided they don’t fall too far behind. The Bears were trampled by James Conner last week, so Rhamondre Stevenson has to be far more excited for this matchup than the one last week versus Tennessee in which he couldn’t even rush for two yards per carry.

Stevenson’s running will open up opportunities for Drake Maye, but what if the Patriots once again trail by double digits against a quality opponent? Drake Maye will be harassed by the Bears front, assuming Montez Sweat returns to action after missing last week’s game. Sweat and the other pass rushers should have their way with New England’s poor offensive line.

Maye also won’t be able to consistently hit his threats, given that most of them are lackluster. Hunter Henry has the best chance of succeeding because the Bears have given up significant performances to opposing tight ends recently.

RECAP: One angle I love is betting good teams coming off embarrassing defeats. This is what happened to the Bears last week. Perhaps deflated from the Hail Mary loss, Chicago was a no-show at Arizona. The Cardinals humiliated them by ramming the ball down their throat all afternoon.

Now, there’s the question as to whether or not the Bears qualify as a good team. They at least have a good defense that was short-handed with some injuries last week. They also obviously have some great skill players, and Williams has enjoyed some terrific performances against some poor defenses. The Bears certainly are not a great team, but I think they can be classified as a good team.

If I’m correct, then this is a great bounce-back spot for them, especially with the Patriots coming off an overtime affair. New England is a miserable team that has gotten blown out four times this year. They’ve kept their previous two games close, but those were against an unfocused Jets team that was looking ahead to a Thursday night affair, and the Titans. Before that, they couldn’t keep up with the terrible Jaguars, whom the Bears destroyed the week prior to that meeting.

We’re also getting a slight discount with the Bears, who were -7 on the advance line. With that factored in, this is going to be a top play for me this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chicago didn’t have Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones for Wednesday’s practice, but this doesn’t seem like the end of the world against New England’s poor pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: I can’t believe we’re betting D’Andre Swift, but he’s gone over the posted rushing yards prop (70.5) in four of his previous five games. Swift has been great, while New England continues to be woeful against the run. The best number is over 70.5 rushing yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will have some reinforcements back this week. Offensively, Ryan Bates figures to return for the first time since Week 1. Perhaps he’ll help the lackluster blocking. Defensively, Montez Sweat will play after missing last week’s game. The Bears should be able to take care of business against this horrible New England team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like that the Bears are missing both tackles, though Ryan Bates’ return will help. I’m going to drop this a unit to four. The sharps have been a bit light on the Bears. The best line is -6 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

The Bears were just embarrassed.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.

Computer Model: Bears -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Slight lean on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 64% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 29-17 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 15 mph.