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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2012): 8-8 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2012): 5-11 (-$1,480)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2012): 11-5 (+$410)

NFL Picks (2012): 119-130-7 (-$3,850)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 30, 11:45 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks - Early Games



Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (11-4)
Line: Patriots by 10. Total: 47.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -12.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Patriots -12.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Patriots -11.
Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I've received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady's been stuck on three. He's no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games - especially those involving Tim Tebow - but then he's so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it's the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It's unknown to the media, but Brady's haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place in the shadows of Gillette Stadium.



Tall Masked Man: Our plan has finally come to fruition.

Short Masked Man: Yes, it totally has.

Tall Masked Man: Just look at them. Frolicking together on the field so gleefully. Soon enough, the reporters will find out, and Tom Brady will be a disgraced quarterback.

Short Masked Man: He'll definitely be a disgrace.

Tall Masked Man: I wonder how late they'll stay up together.

*** Both men stare out onto the field, where Tom Brady and Justin Bieber are running around playfully. Both Brady and Bieber are sporting identical haircuts and are wearing Patriot No. 12 jerseys. They've even had facial surgery in an attempt to look identical. ***

Tom Brady: I'm Tom Brady!

Justin Bieber: No, I'm Tom Brady!

Tom Brady: No, I'm Justin Bieber!

Justin Bieber: No, I'm Justin Bieber!

Tom Brady: No, you're Justin Bieber!

Justin Bieber: No, you're Tom Brady!

Tom Brady: Weeeeeeeeeeee!

Justin Bieber: Yaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy!

Tom Brady: I love you, Tom!

Justin Bieber: I love you, Justin!

Tom Brady: Hahahahahahahaha!

Justin Bieber: Hehehehehehehe!

*** Meanwhile, back in the shadows. ***

Tall Masked Man: I never imagined that we would be able to engineer Tom Brady into acting so heterosexually challenged, but it worked.

Short Masked Man: Yes, it worked.

Masked Woman: Of course it worked.

Tall Masked Man: Your grace!

Short Masked Man: Your grace!

Masked Woman: Rise, Lords Peyton and Josh. You have served me well.

Peyton Manning: It was my pleasure. After losing to Tom in all of those playoff games earlier in my career, I needed to get revenge beyond beating him on the football field.

Josh McDaniels: And I wanted people to stop calling me McDouche! That's all Tom and Bill Belichick called me.

Peyton Manning: Well, you're in the right place, McAwesome. We've gotten our sweet revenge. But your grace, I'm wondering what you have against Tom?

Masked Woman: That is for another time. Come, it's time to alert the press of Tom Brady and Justin Bieber's sexual affair. After that, we shall commence Stage 2 of our plan!

Who is the Masked Woman? Why does she want revenge? And what does she have planned for Brady? Find out next year on THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady needs to stop getting off to these slow starts. He was 3-of-10 with two interceptions at one point at Jacksonville last week. He was lucky to be playing such a poor team because it was easy for him to overcome an early double-digit deficit. He didn't have as much luck against a superior 49er squad the Sunday before.

The Dolphins fall under the San Francisco category, at least defensively. They have the sixth-most sacks in the NFL (41) and were able to take Brady down behind the line of scrimmage on four occasions during a Week 13 battle. Brady was just 24-of-40 for 238 yards, one touchdown and an interception in that contest - the 6.0 YPA being a season-low.

New England was able to move the chains in that Week 13 victory with the help of the running game. The Dolphins, who have struggled versus ground attacks recently (4.53 YPC past four weeks), surrendered 109 rushing yards to the Patriots. However, they were able to limit New England to just two touchdowns because they have the best red-zone defense in the NFL. If they'll be able to hold the Patriots to threes instead of sevens again, they'll have a chance to cover and perhaps even win.

MIAMI OFFENSE: My editor laughed at an article he read recently that claimed that Reggie Bush will have difficulty reaching 1,000 rushing yards on the season because the Patriots have a terrific run defense. Bush needs just 40 yards to get to that milestone, so how prolific can New England be against ground attacks?

Well, not prolific at all. Save for last week, because they were going up against someone named Montell Owens, the Patriots have surrendered at least 82 rushing yards to every single opponent since Week 7. Bush has been difficult to stop lately. The Dolphins inexplicably gave him just 15 touches (all carries) against New England in the aforementioned Week 13 tilt, but he's eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the past three weeks. This is his final chance to audition for a new contract, so look for him to have another big game.

Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill has also performed well lately. He bounced back off rough outings against the Patriots and 49ers to go 22-of-28 for 220 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville, and then he followed that up with another decent outing versus Buffalo in which he tossed two touchdowns and rushed for 44 yards. However, he was just 13-of-29 for 186 yards and a lost fumble when he battled New England four weeks ago. He's also been much worse on the road. Consider the dichotomy:

Tannehill home: 59.5%, 6.6 YPA, 10 TDs (8 pass, 2 rush), 5 INTs.
Tannehill road: 57.0%, 7.1 YPA, 4 TDs (4 pass, 0 rush), 7 INTs.

And Tannehill struggled against Bill Belichick at home. Imagine what'll happen in Foxborough...

RECAP: The Dolphins have been on fire, but their impressive play has come at home. They're much different on the road, going 2-5 outside of the Sunshine State. They've lost by double digits at the two teams (49ers, Texans) I currently have in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings.

I like the Patriots to bounce back. They've been sloppy the past two weeks, but Belichick and Brady will get their act together. They always perform well in Week 17, and I don't expect this year to be any different.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm still going with three units on the Patriots.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
A decent amount of action on the host.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 75% (44,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Dolphins are 15-4 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.
  • Underdog is 39-17 ATS in the Dolphins' last 54 games.
  • Patriots are 39-23 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 24-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
  • Patriots are 9-2 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 144-49 as a starter (111-77 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 18-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (8-19 ATS since November 2007).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -11.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 33, Dolphins 17
    Patriots -10 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 47 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 28, Dolphins 0






    Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-6)
    Line: Packers by 3. Total: 45.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Packers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Packers -3.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

    Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 20 people remaining.

    Picking Contest: We're also running an NFL Picking Contest. It's free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

    Win Free Money! My friend Tom Harkins sent me an e-mail about a promotion: "I'm running a give-away from my site. People who 'friend' my Facebook page (FantasySportsTrophies.com) are entered into a drawling for $500. If they follow my Twitter feed (@FantasySportsTr), they're entered for ANOTHER $500 give away. Winners will be posted/Tweeted on Super Bowl Sunday."

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Can Adrian Peterson get 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record? That question seems more significant than whether the Vikings will make the playoffs or not. In a historical context, it actually is if you think about it. Minnesota almost certainly has no shot at reaching the Super Bowl with Christian Ponder and his anemic receiving corps, so a failed postseason attempt won't matter in the long run. But if Peterson eclipses Dickerson, that'll be remembered as long as the NFL is around.

    So, going back to my original question, the answer is, well, maybe. I hate to be wishy-washy, but the Packers have surrendered more than 200 rushing yards to one opponent this year - and that happened to be the Vikings back in Week 13. However, Green Bay's defense has since seen the return of Clay Matthews. Gaining as much yardage against the Packers with Matthews in the lineup will be much more difficult, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that it could happen. I've bet against Peterson too many times to know that he's capable of anything. So, if I were playing "Oddsmakers" with Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser on Pardon the Interruption, I'd say 65 percent.

    As for this actual game, Peterson should be able to run well enough to make life easier for Ponder. However, Ponder could still easily be Minnesota's downfall. He went just 12-of-25 for 119 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the prior meeting against the Packers - and that was without Matthews terrorizing him in the backfield. It'll be much more difficult for Ponder this time around.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of quarterbacks being chased around, Aaron Rodgers had it rough in the previous meeting. Rodgers took two sacks, as he was constantly harassed by the Vikings' front, particularly Jared Allen, who completely embarrassed left tackle Marshall Newhouse. Nothing has really changed in terms of the Packers' blocking - Rodgers has been sacked seven times in the three games since - so Minnesota should continue to get heavy pressure on him.

    Something has actually changed elsewhere, and it's that Randall Cobb could be out with an ankle injury. Cobb has been a godsend for Rodgers, as he's been a potent intermediate target out of the slot. Rodgers has relied heavily upon Cobb because he doesn't have the time in the pocket to consistently find Greg Jennings and James Jones downfield. It's possible that Jordy Nelson could return to the lineup, by the way, but he may not be 100 percent.

    It'll be important for the Packers to run the ball with Cobb out. They had success doing this against the Titans, as Ryan Grant approached 100 yards on the ground. The Vikings rank fourth versus the run (4.4 YPC), but it's worth noting that Green Bay rushed for 137 yards against them in that aforementioned Week 13 tilt. The Packers were able to do this because Minnesota was so worried about Rodgers' aerial ability.

    RECAP: There are some good trends going against the Packers, but I still like them a lot. Rodgers is a covering machine as an underdog or a small favorite - see the trends below - and he's owned the Vikings over the past three years.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm dropping this to one unit because of having to either lay 3.5 or spend extra juice on 3.

    FINAL THOUGHTS II: This is now an even -3. I'm going back up to two units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No pyschological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    There's not as much action on the Packers as there would've been a few weeks ago.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 65% (61,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won the last 5 meetings.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 42-22 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 22-10 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points.
  • Opening Line: Packers -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Vikings 17
    Packers -3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 45.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Vikings 37, Packers 34








    Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) at Denver Broncos (12-3)
    Line: Broncos by 16.5. Total: 42.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -16.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Broncos -16.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Broncos -16.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 17 has been posted - Can Emmitt and his friends finally put an end to Bountygate II?

    DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning was a machine last week. The poor Browns didn't stand a chance. Manning made only one mistake according to the box score, but his interception was his target's screw-up. If Manning is as dialed in as he was last week, he won't be stopped. Not with the talented arsenal of weapons he has at his disposal.

    It's worth noting that the Chiefs have actually been better against the pass lately. Their 6.9 YPA in December is a respectable 18th compared to their 7.87 YPA figure for the year, which is 29th. The difference has been Eric Berry, who has finally seemed to shrug off the remnants of the torn ACL that were hampering him in the first part of the season. Still though, a No. 18 aerial defense is not good enough to even contain Manning.

    Once Manning establishes a big lead, he'll be able to hand the ball off to Knowshon Moreno, who can easily ice this game away. While the Chiefs have improved against the pass, they still stink at stopping the run; they surrender a 4.5 YPC, which Moreno will take full advantage of.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball successfully, the Chiefs were able to do that versus the Colts. In fact, they were just the fifth team since 1989 to gain 350-plus on the ground. But in pathetic fashion, they were also the first of those teams to lose.

    If you didn't watch the game, you might be asking, how does a team rush for 350-plus yards and still lose? Well, it's easy if Brady Quinn is the quarterback. Quinn was awful against the Colts, who have a mediocre secondary and an inconsistent pass rush, so how the hell is he going to handle the Broncos, who have a great secondary and an even better pass rush?

    Quinn just doesn't have a prayer - especially when considering that Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis won't have nearly as much success on the ground. The Colts are last against the run, so it's no surprise that Charles and Hillis were able to gash them so effortlessly. The Broncos, on the other hand, are third. The last time a team rushed for more than 70 yards against them was Week 12.

    RECAP: There's no way I'm betting on a team that's laying more than two touchdowns, but I'm still taking the Broncos because I can't side with the Chiefs. The only way they're going to cover is via fluky fumbles, tipped interceptions or special-teams scores. You just can't count on that. Manning needs this win for a bye, so I think he's going to get it.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 57% (45,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 23 meetings.
  • Chiefs are 14-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.
  • John Fox is 6-3 ATS in Week 17 games.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -16.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 31, Chiefs 3
    Broncos -16.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 42 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Broncos 38, Chiefs 3






    Oakland Raiders (4-11) at San Diego Chargers (6-9)
    Line: Chargers by 8. Total: 41.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Chargers -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Chargers -7.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.

    Jerks of the Week for Dec. 24, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are Christmas Jewelry Commercials.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers better watch for his life because Tommy Kelly is angry and taking no prisoners. Kelly told the media following the loss to Carolina that his primary goal was to injure Cam Newton because Carson Palmer was knocked out. Kelly didn't accomplish his mission, so maybe he'll take out his frustrations on Rivers, who receives blocking from one of the worst offensive lines in football. Rivers has been sacked more than any quarterback in the NFL (47 times).

    Fortunately for Rivers, the Raiders don't have the personnel to take advantage of his anemic offensive line. Aside from the Jaguars, no team has fewer sacks than Oakland (23). The Raiders also have poor corners, who contribute to their 25th ranking against aerial attacks. Save for his Week 15 goose-egg performance, Danario Alexander has been dominant since picked up off the waiver wire, so he'll be able to get open against one of the worst secondaries in football.

    The Raiders are slightly worse against the run (26th; 4.5 YPC), but now it's San Diego's turn not to have the appropriate players to take advantage of this deficiency. Ryan Mathews is out, but he was a major disappointment anyway. The trio of Jackie Battle, Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley isn't going to scare anyone.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: Palmer was knocked out of the game last week with a fierce shot to the ribs. He's out, which means 15-year-old head coach Dennis Allen will have a tough decision to make between Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor. And by "tough," I mean that Leinart obviously has pictures of himself, Nick Lachey and Allen in a hot tub together, because Allen wouldn't have otherwise said that Leinart gives him a better chance to win than Pryor does. Pryor at least has a big arm and mobility; all Leinart has are his USC glory days and a safe checkdown strategy that never works.

    Leinart will be checking down like crazy against the Chargers because they suddenly have a ferocious pass rush. Thanks to the emergence of stud second-round rookie Kendall Reyes, San Diego collected a whopping 11 sacks against the Jets this past Sunday, 3.5 of which were from Reyes. Leinart won't want to get sacked, so he'll keep throwing short. This may move the chains on occasion, but the Raiders won't be able to sustain drives doing this. They'll also bog down in the end zone, so they'll have to settle for a bunch of field goals.

    It would help Leinart's cause if Darren McFadden were at full strength, but that's hardly the case. McFadden inexplicably has lost all explosion this year, so don't expect much from him yet again - especially against a San Diego front that actually ranks seventh (3.86 YPC) in terms of stopping opposing ground attacks.

    RECAP: I don't trust the Chargers enough to bet heavily on them, but I'm willing to lay a unit or two here. They've played well in two of their previous three games, while the Raiders haven't really shown much effort outside of trying to injure the opposing quarterback.

    SURVIVOR PICK: The Raiders have seemed to quit on their teenage coach, so I'm taking San Diego. The top survivor options in order: Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Chargers.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, this spread came in a lot higher than I thought it would. I can't bet on either side.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 56% (22,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • History: Raiders have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (Raiders 5-2 ATS last 7).
  • Chargers are 9-4 ATS at home the week after playing on the East Coast since 2004.
  • Philip Rivers is 25-14 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, Raiders 15
    Chargers -8 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 41.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chargers 24, Raiders 21






    Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1)
    Line: 49ers by 16.5. Total: 38.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -15.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): 49ers -14.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): 49ers -14.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.

    It's time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won't be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

    Well, I'm taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

    Here's Mario Migelini's weekly Seahawks prediction:



    It's amazing how accurate Mario has been this season. Perhaps I should type like him when making my picks.

    Mario on next week's opponent:



    Yes, Logan, and you've been trolled.

    Here, Mario argues about why Ruskell Wilkens is better than Andraw Lock.



    Yep. Mario's really waisted. I guess he tried on a bunch of belts. Zing!

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Would you believe me if I said that the Cardinals had a chance to move the chains consistently in this divisional matchup? No, no, I haven't smoked crack in the past hour. It's true.

    The NFL is a copycat league, and the Cardinals will do exactly what the Seahawks did Sunday night. Justin Smith is out, so Arizona will be able to run left with some success. Maybe. Chris Wells isn't nearly as good as Marshawn Lynch, and the Arizona offensive line is nothing compared to Seattle's front. However, Justin Smith's absence is huge. Aldon Smith is a great pass-rusher, but he's pretty pedestrian in run support. Justin Smith being gone exposes that.

    If Wells can at least rush for 3.5 yards per carry, Arizona will have a chance because Brian Hoyer is at least somewhat competent. He's not good, but he's not nearly the disaster that Ryan Lindley and John Skelton were. Hoyer is functional enough to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, which is all he needs to do. Fitzgerald can do the rest.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Outside of the Jets and Packers, which defense has the best yards-per-attempt average over the past four weeks? Give up? Oh, you guessed the Cardinals because I'm making it obvious? Damn it.

    Yes, it's the Cardinals and their 5.69 YPA. It's not like they've battled terrible quarterbacks either. The four opponents were Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Rusell Wilson and Sam Bradford. That's not a bad quartet. I know Ser Stafford has no one else to throw to, but Arizona's aerial defense made him look like complete dog crap. The difference has been the return of Calais Campbell, who came back from injury in Week 14. Campbell has been an absolute terror, and there's no doubt he'll put plenty of heat on Colin Kaepernick, who could be doubting himself after a rough outing.

    The 49ers will need to run the ball as much as possible so Campbell isn't nearly as much of a factor in terms of rushing the passer. They should be able to do this quite easily. Campbell's return hasn't improved Arizona's beleaguered ground defense one bit; the team has surrendered an average of 167.3 rushing yards per game since he's made his way back to the lineup.

    RECAP: This is yet another spread that's way too high, but I can actually see myself taking the Cardinals. They seem to be functional offensively with Hoyer, and they've improved immensely on defense with Campbell back in the lineup. San Francisco is not the same team without Justin Smith.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I'm torn.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 53% (33,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 1-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 0-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
  • 49ers are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.
  • Jim Harbaugh is 4-1 ATS following a loss.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -15.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 20
    Cardinals +16.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 38.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    49ers 27, Cardinals 13




    St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5)
    Line: Seahawks by 12. Total: 42.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Seahawks -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Seahawks -10.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    I can't wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That's what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron.

    Check out how many random accounts confused normal people here. And no, I don't own any of these accounts, save for Mario Migelini.

    I'm a fan of when people freak out and say racist things about my trolling buddies, so here's another post from Marty Millen:



    That's a good question. How exactly does a tree f*** off? Well, I'm sure Matt Millen knows a little something about this.

    Here's something from Victor Valentino:



    Josh Merwin needs to calm down. Perhaps he'll feel better after a night with Millen and his kielbasas.

    Here's another AFC West troller...



    Ah, gotta love the irony behind Chris Wilson's post.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Mario Migelini has been right this whole time. Ruskell Wilkens, I mean, Russell Wilson has emerged as an MVP candidate. No, really. Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady and the like are all ahead of him obviously, but Wilson's growth over the course of his rookie campaign is the reason why the Seahawks are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Wilson is an incredible passer and a dangerous scrambler, and the way he buys himself time in the pocket has to be completely frustrating for opposing offensive coordinators. Jeff Fisher's blood pressure is probably rising right now as he's desperately trying to find a way to contain him.

    The Rams absolutely have to generate a ton of pressure on Wilson to make him feel uncomfortable - if that's even possible. They should be able to get by Seattle's offensive line; they're tied for third in the NFL with 46 sacks, including 25 in the seven games since their Week 9 bye. However, Wilson has taken just six sacks in the past four weeks, so something has to give.

    Wilson's mobility is one reason why that sack total is so low. The other is Marshawn Lynch, who is playing some of the best football of his career. He's averaging an even five yards per carry this season, which is easily a personal best. The read option is just so lethal, and the Rams are going to struggle to stop it. After all, they just surrendered 200-plus to Adrian Peterson two weeks ago.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Speaking of bruising backs, Steven Jackson should also have a decent performance, assuming his team doesn't go down big early like Frank Gore's 49ers. The Seahawks are ranked 27th against the run, thanks to a couple of banged-up players, including Red Bryant, who is battling through a nagging foot injury.

    Jackson's running ability should be able to keep the Seattle pass-rushers at bay and give Sam Bradford time to move the chains. Bradford is inconsistent, so it'll help his cause if Richard Sherman, one of the top players in the NFL, is suspended for using an illegal substance. Sherman's appeal is set to be heard Thursday, though it sounds like there's a chance Sherman will skate freely because the drug test was apparently mishandled. If Sherman's out, however, Bradford will have a much easier time finding his receivers, who will be going up against very inexperienced corners.

    As noted earlier, it's extremely imperative that the Rams don't fall behind quickly like the 49ers did Sunday night. This would allow the Seattle pass-rushers to constantly harass Bradford behind a pedestrian offensive front. This is what happened versus the Vikings two weeks ago, and Bradford was sacked on four occasions. Bradford doesn't have the blocking or the talent around him (and perhaps within him) to overcome that.

    RECAP: I hate that we're getting absolutely no spread value with the Seahawks, but I guess that's the price we have to pay to take such a dominant team with the best homefield advantage in football. The Rams are a quality opponent, but Seattle should be able to win easily and cover in the process.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm dropping this to zero units. If the 49ers are way ahead of the Cardinals, the Seahawks could pull their starters.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    People like the Seahawks, naturally.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (37,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • History: Seahawks have won 13 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Jeff Fisher is 3-11 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.
  • Seahawks are 19-5 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 38, Rams 17
    Seahawks -12 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 42 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Seahawks 20, Rams 13




    Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6)
    Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 49.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Griffin).
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Redskins -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Redskins -6.
    Sunday, Dec. 30, 8:20 ET
    Discuss Week 17 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.

    This week on Monday Sunday Night Football, we're going to have Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the nation's capital, the state of Washington, where the Redskins take on the Cowboys. This is going to be a terrible game because one of my Eagles' hated rivals will win. I'm joined by a couple of new people because my idiot bosses thought it would be nice to have a representative from every NFC East team here. Emmitt, you are by my side as usual.

    Emmitt: Samuel, it give me great pleasures to announce game with you. The Cowboy, the team I play for in my youths, have a chance to go to the Super Bowl with a win tonight. But before a Super Bowl come the doggone playoff.

    Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt. Now, for our Eagles' correspondent, Don Tollefson. Don? Where are you? Oh, he left a note. It says, "Kevin, sorry can't stick around. I have kidnapped the Cowboys' cheerleaders. As you're reading this, they are probably making a three-course meal for me. Love, Tolly."

    Millen: I think it's racist that the NFL only has female cheerleaders. If there were male cheerleaders, I'd attempt the same tactic. The male cheerleaders would make a three-course kielbasa meal for me, but instead of eating the kielbasas, we'd stuff them in our...

    Reilly: Shut up, Millen! Thank God this season's almost over. Now, let's see what our Giants' analyst Phil Simms has to say.

    Phil Simms: You may be wondering why I'm here, seeing as how the Giants are not involved. You want to know why I'm here? Oh, well the bosses told me to come. What did they say exactly? They said, "Phil, you have to do the Sunday night game, or we'll steal your mother's pumpkin pies." You want to know what I said back? Well, I just said OK because I love my mom's pumpkin pies. Why do I love them so much? Because they are so tasty, that's why. I've eaten them my whole life. You're wondering when I had my first one? Well, that's a difficult question to answer because...

    Reilly: You're so f***ing annoying! Last and definitely very least, Joe Theismann.

    Theismann: I talked to Jerry Jones' son-in-law, and he said that Dez Bryant has become a great receiver in the NFL. He said he's been a dominant force, so Bryant is definitely a dominant force.

    Reilly: Who cares what Jerry Jones' son-in-law says?

    Theismann: I care, and if you and Matt Millen weren't fat slobs, you'd care too.

    Reilly: Ugh. I think I'm going to kill myself before this telecast is over. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo has taken a lot of flak over the years for being a choke artist, but he's been on fire this December. He's compiled at least 268 yards in every game and has maintained a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If the Cowboys come up short in this Week 17 tilt, it probably won't be on Romo, who should have his way against a secondary that just permitted Nick Foles to throw for 345 yards.

    Dez Bryant and Jason Witten likely won't be to blame either. Witten has been as consistent as ever, breaking Tony Gonzalez's record last week for receptions by a tight end in a single season. Bryant, meanwhile, has been flat-out dominant. He scored on two 50-yard bombs this past Sunday despite battling through a painful, injured finger. He deserves a ton of credit for developing the mental aspect of his game because he played like a complete moron in the first half of the season.

    So, who's going to screw up for Dallas? You know someone will. Someone always does. Perhaps it'll be Miles Austin-Jones, who had three drops in a single drive before catching the game-tying touchdown pass at the end of regulation. Or maybe it'll be DeMarco Murray, who was guilty of a key fumble against the Saints. Murray has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry or worse in three of his four games since he returned from injury.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Or maybe the Dallas defense will just implode. Rob Ryan's stop unit looked completely lost this past Sunday. The defenders didn't seem to realize that they had to cover New Orleans' running backs as pass-catchers coming out of the backfield. And in one instance, the Cowboys had just nine men on the field. I've heard of 10 or 12 once in a while, but nine? How does that happen?

    It's not all on Ryan though. There have been so many injuries to the interior of the defense. That's why the Cowboys have surrendered 5.3 yards per carry to the opposition in their previous four contests. Alfred Morris, who is capable of running the ball extremely well, should be able to trample Dallas' banged-up front.

    This will all help Robert Griffin, who needs all of the assistance he can get because he was very gimpy against the Eagles. Griffin was capable of doing damage aerially, but he wasn't a threat whatsoever on the ground, scrambling only twice for four yards. It's completely possible that Griffin will be much healthier this week, but chances are that he'll be limited to just throwing the ball - which won't be so bad because Dallas' secondary is in shambles right now. Only the Giants, Saints and Buccaneers are ranked worse versus the pass.

    RECAP: When it comes down to it, I feel like the Cowboys will find some way to lose. That's been their M.O. the past few seasons. They get their fans' hopes up with some great wins, but then they let everyone down. Why should this year be any different?

    I'm not willing to bet on the Redskins because I'm concerned about Griffin's health, but chances are that Dallas will find some way to end its season.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Everyone's expecting Romo and the Cowboys to blow this. It's too much. When everything usually thinks something will happen, the opposite usually occurs. I'm not taking Dallas, but it'll keep me from betting Washington.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 57% (70,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Road Team has covered 8 of the past 10 meetings.
  • Tony Romo is 9-19 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (2-6 ATS as an underdog).
  • Redskins are 9-24 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: .


    Week 17 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Cowboys 20
    Redskins -3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 49 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 28, Cowboys 18



    Week 17 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Buccaneers at Falcons, Ravens at Bengals, Texans at Colts, Panthers at Saints, Jaguars at Titans, Jets at Bills, Bears at Lions, Eagles at Giants, Browns at Steelers


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Moneyline Underdog: Jets +165 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Teaser: Ravens +8.5, Giants -1 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100



    NFL Picks - Oct. 31


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 29


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 3-5
    Bears: 3-5
    Bucs: 5-2
    49ers: 3-3
    Eagles: 4-3
    Lions: 2-5
    Falcons: 3-5
    Cardinals: 3-4
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 5-2
    Panthers: 2-6
    Rams: 3-4
    Redskins: 5-3
    Vikings: 6-2
    Saints: 3-3
    Seahawks: 3-4
    Bills: 3-5
    Bengals: 2-6
    Colts: 4-4
    Broncos: 4-3
    Dolphins: 5-1
    Browns: 3-2
    Jaguars: 3-5
    Chargers: 2-6
    Jets: 4-4
    Ravens: 2-5
    Texans: 5-3
    Chiefs: 4-2
    Patriots: 4-4
    Steelers: 3-5
    Titans: 4-3
    Raiders: 3-4
    Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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