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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 95-106-7 (-$1,670)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 10, 6:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games



Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)
Line: Broncos by 10. Total: 48.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -10.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Broncos -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Broncos -10.
Thursday, Dec. 6, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I've received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 13 RECAP: I had a winning week just based on my picks (8-7-1), but finished in the red for the second week in a row at -$420. Part of that was stupidity...

Saints +3.5 over Falcons (3 units): How does Drew Brees throw five interceptions? Crazy... or was it? Someone named FlupACoyne posted the following on the comment board below:

Walt - you need to stop prognosticating Thursday games! By my calculations you are a whopping 2-11-1 losing a grand total of $1,990 with your two correct selections being for zero units and one unit.

He's right. I'd have a (slightly) winning year if I didn't wager on any Thursday games. And I won't do so again until I figure them out. They're just weird. Strange things happen - like Brees throwing five picks.

Chargers +1 over Bengals (4 units): I also need to stop betting on dumb teams like the Chargers, Titans and Cowboys unless they're getting more than a field goal because they always find some way to lose. San Diego had three linemen suffer injuries Sunday, but Philip Rivers and Norv Turner would've discovered some way to choke the contest away.

Jaguars +6 over Bills (3 Units): I'm not really sure what went wrong here. I thought the Bills shouldn't be favored by six or more over anyone, but maybe they're better than I thought.

Now, it's time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. Everyone is so down on the Packers, it almost made me forget that they won five games in a row prior to playing the Giants.

2. The Steelers have no chance without Ben Roethlisberger. Well, if the running backs didn't lose four fumbles, they would've beaten the Browns, and no one would be talking about Pittsburgh in a negative light.

3. People seem to be dismissing the Seahawks even though they were in a tough spot, playing in a 1 p.m. East Coast game, where they always struggle.

Fading the media went a perfect 3-0 in Week 13 after going 3-0-1 in Week 12. I love it. Here's what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. The media loves the Colts and is talking them up after that comeback against the Lions, but the defense is still awful.

2. ESPN people are beginning to doubt Jim Harbaugh's decision to go with Colin Kaepernick. It's doubtful they'd feel that way if David Akers hit a kick in overtime.

3. The Bengals are getting tons of respect - even though they've beaten three crap teams in the past three weeks.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: How are the Raiders going to stop the Broncos? They can't cover anyone. And it's not like they try. Tommy Kelly and Rolando McClain have such poor attitudes that they've rubbed off on the rest of the team. Oakland just doesn't give a damn anymore.

The Raiders don't really have the talent in the secondary to stop Manning anyway. They have a safety starting at one cornerback position. Ronald Bartell, the other corner, isn't any good. Matt Giordano is getting extensive action at safety for some reason. Joselio Hanson, a Philadelphia cast-off, is getting torched on a weekly basis. Everyone else is a disaster, save for Tyvon Branch, but he's only one guy. It doesn't help matters that Oakland gets zero pressure on the quarterback.

As bad as the Raiders are against the pass (28th; 7.8 YPA), they're actually worse versus the rush (4.78 YPC), as we all witnessed when Doug Martin nearly broke Adrian Peterson's single-game rushing record against them. Knowshon Moreno will trample Oakland's pathetic defense, which will give Manning more lucrative opportunities.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Unlike the Raiders, the Broncos have a defense featuring players who are both skilled and industrious. As a result, they rank in the top five against the rush and the pass. They're also No. 2 in sacks with 38.

All of these things are problematic for Oakland. For instance, Carson Palmer has taken 11 sacks in the past four games, so Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will be breathing down his neck. This will make it difficult for Palmer to move the chains aerially in this contest - an already daunting task considering that young corners Tony Carter and Chris Harris have served as great complements to Champ Bailey. Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom are struggling, won't have much success in this contest.

The Broncos struggled a bit against Jamaal Charles two weeks ago, but rebounded with a strong showing versus Doug Martin, limiting him to just 56 yards on 18 carries. Darren McFadden figures to return to the lineup, but he may not be 100 percent. He wasn't even good prior to his injury anyway, showing a surprising lack of burst.

RECAP: Like I said earlier, I'm not betting Thursday night games. Weird stuff happens. Perhaps Derek Anderson will show up and trick Manning into drinking out of his magic flask, just as he did with Drew Brees a week ago. What a douche.

If I had to take a side, I'd lay the points. Manning thrives on Thursdays, owning a 6-1 spread record in his career.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still taking Denver. And still not betting this game. I hope I can figure out these Thursday games soon.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
No surprise here.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (49,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings (Raiders 9-4 ATS since 2006).
  • Peyton Maning is 6-1 ATS on Thursday.
  • Peyton Manning is 33-22 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
  • John Fox is 8-3 ATS on the West Coast.
  • Raiders are 11-4 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -10.
  • Opening Total: 50.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 3
    Broncos -10 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 48 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Broncos 26, Raiders 13
    NFL Game Recaps




    Baltimore Ravens (9-3) at Washington Redskins (6-6)
    Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Ravens -1.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Redskins -1.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.

    VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks lost a record amount of money four weeks ago when all seven highly bet teams covered. However, they've now rebounded two weekends in a row. Only two of the four highly bet teams covered (Texans, Bengals lost money; Rams, Chiefs won money), but remember that sportsbooks get the vig and parlay/teaser money.

    I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: After an incredible Monday night performance, Robert Griffin lamented that he wouldn't be able to go up against Ray Lewis in this matchup. Well, it appears as though he won't be battling Terrell Suggs either. Suggs tore his biceps last week, so Griffin won't have to worry about him in the backfield.

    With more time in the pocket, Griffin will attack a Baltimore secondary that just surrendered 276 passing yards to Charlie Batch. The key will be his receivers actually holding on to the football; they dropped three Monday night. Of course, Griffiin could always scramble for big gains if his targets prove to be too inept.

    The Redskins will also be able to run the football effectively. The Ravens have surrendered at least 90 rushing yards to all but one opponent since Week 4, and they'll be even worse versus the run with Suggs out of the lineup. Alfred Morris is a force; he's averaged 4.5 yards per carry or better in five of his six previous contests.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco has an easy matchup on paper. Washington's secondary has been torched for most of the year. However, the Redskins have been much better against the pass lately, limiting the opposition to 6.87 YPA in their previous four games. They've also improved in the red zone, ranking eighth in red-zone defense over the past three weeks.

    This will be problematic for Flacco. As discussed last week, there's a big difference between Flacco at home and Flacco on the road. The former is usually sharp (last week being an exception), while the latter seldom converts deep in opposing territory. In away contests, Flacco has a 55.3 completion percentage, a 5.7 YPA and a 4:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The disparity between his figures as a host (63.3, 8.7, 11:4) are staggering.

    A smart offensive coordinator would realize this and attempt to establish a strong rushing attack. But Cam Cameron is hardly a smart offensive coordinator. He didn't give Ray Rice a single touch in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to Pittsburgh, which is inexplicable. The Redskins are a decent 13th against ground attacks (4.17 YPC), but it's not like it matters.

    RECAP: This is a tough spot for the Redskins because they're coming off such an emotional Monday night victory. The Ravens, meanwhile, will want to rebound off that Pittsburgh loss. However, I can't take Baltimore because of Griffin. He's just too damn good. I'm leaning toward Washington.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Sigh... I feel like the Ravens are the side. The Redskins are in such a bad spot. But I just can't bet against Griffin in a game in which all he has to do is win.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 56% (44,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ravens are 15-8 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 23 instances.
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Ravens 20
    Redskins -2 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 47 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 31, Ravens 28






    Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-8)
    Line: Browns by 7. Total: 38.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Browns -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Browns -4.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Browns.

    HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Here are some brief ones from my picks page comment board:

    Walter you F*cking idiot, what made you pick SD for 4 units, did you even factor that Cinn needed a win to get into the playoff? *SMH* *SMH* SMFH* WHY!! WHY!! WHY!!!!

    I'd offer my own response to this, but someone else answered: "Who's the idiot? You're the bigger fkn idiot that tails him, then admits it when you lose. WHY WHY WHY? No one pointed a gun to your head. Lol."

    For a guy who says he's good at predicting football games, Walt is only up $190 on the year. Hope he does something else for a living.

    Umm... when did I say I'm good at predicting football games? I'd say I'm very mediocre at predicting football games. And I'm not up on the year. I'm down about 1.6 grand, so get your facts right!

    The only reason any one reads your website is for the trends and the draft database. It's bad enough we have to weed through your "opinions" but your attempt at comedy the past couple of years has been drudgingly bad. I typically read the Dolphins portion because that's my team and that Brady and Bunchen exchange was hard to read. I was embarrassed for you. Stick to trends and facts, it's all you're good for.

    As you can see, having sand in your vag will destroy your sense of humor. To all those who have sand in their vages, I recommend this sand blower from Alibaba.com. It's as cheap as $40 apparently - well worth the investment because you'll have the sand out of your vag in no time!

    NB4 you blame it on 5 picks. You are just plain horrible at handicapping. I'm making money from fading you. Here's how walt makes his picks.. Who is taking all the money? I pick the opposite team. YOUR TRASH!!!!!!!!!!!

    My trash? I feel as though I do a good job of bringing in my trash cans promptly after the trash men arrive. In fact, it's one of the few things I'm good at.

    Wrong again walter....a random number generator could do better than you. You are wrong so often it is sad, pathetic, and really really offensive. Why do you have a website? Seriously, what have you added to the sport? Any sport. Why do people stupidly rely on your messed up picks?? I don't know... momentum and inertia I guess. three years ago when I first started taking football seriously, I used your picks for three weeks straight..lost over $1000...now I pick on my own..not necessarily the opposite of your picks(cause that will lose you money as well as a broken clock is right twice a day) I am doing much better. Give it up...you stink.

    Dude, a random number generator could do better than anyone. Do you know how awesome those things are? And I had my best year three seasons ago, so if you only lost $1,000 then, imagine how much you'd be in the hole if you followed me this year!

    Yo Walter, I'm starting a new web site, can you please let those on your web site know: www.fadewalter.com!

    I would, but my browser says that the server cannot be found :-(.

    These hate mails are from my NFL Power Rankings:

    Hey dumba.ss...you say that Denver has nothing to worry about by barely beating a bottom feeder team yet you bash the texans for the same thing. It can't be both ways.

    Umm... I had the Texans ahead of the Broncos. You are aware that No. 4 is better than No. 6, right?

    The author couldn't be more wrong on Smith vs. Kaepernick. 69% of Niners fans aren't stupid. Here's 5 reasons why. 1. Smith took the Niners to the SuperBowl last year. The only reason they didn't actually get on the plane is because of 2 stupid fumbles...

    I'm pretty sure there are other reasons why the 49ers didn't get on the "plane."

    These power rankings are a joke. They to be based more on reputation and current wins as opposed to a total body of work for THIS season!! Laughable!!

    I have no idea what this person is trying to say. Does he want my rankings based on reputation? What the hell does that mean?

    "And here I thought Ditka had a stroke; not Alzheimer's." Apparently, no one remembers Vick's crime better than you, Walt. Some people hold childish grudges while some accept that he did his time and then move on. How about it?

    Nope. I'll hold on to my childish grudges. Because it's fun when people respond with childish posts in my comment board.

    why is eagle so low??

    Some questions just cannot be answered. For instance, how did you graduate first grade?

    And here's some hate mail from someone douche named Anthony Cooper:



    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: You have to admire the way Jamaal Charles responded to Jovan Belcher's homicide-suicide. Charles, who introduced Belcher to his late girlfriend, ran with a purpose against the Panthers, gaining 127 yards on 27 carries. He'll pick up where he left off, as the Browns just gave up 82 yards on just 16 carries at Oakland.

    Brady Quinn will need Charles to pick up big chunks of yardage because he has a tough matchup. Cleveland's secondary has suffocated the opposition lately. Not many teams are better against the pass over the previous four weeks. The Browns' 6.3 YPA ranks eighth in the NFL over that span. Quinn has been functional of late, but navigating through Cleveland's defensive backfield will prove to be quite the challenge.

    The Browns have put a ton of pressure on the quarterback lately - they sacked Tony Romo seven times back in Week 11 - so it's a good thing the Chiefs have gotten their act together up front. Their offensive line is mostly healthy now, as left tackle Branden Albert is no longer listed on the injury report (though replacement Donald Stephenson has looked good).

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Charles will be a force rushing the ball, but the same can be said of the running back on the other side. Trent Richardson has an easy matchup against a Kansas City defense ranked 26th against ground attacks (4.6 YPC). Richardson's own 3.6 yards-per-carry average doesn't look impressive on paper, but he has a way of wearing down opposing stop units.

    Establising Richardson is important for two reasons: One, keeping Brandon Weeden in short yardage will prevent Tamba Hali and Justin Houston from breathing down his neck. Cleveland's tackles, Joe Thomas and rookie Mitchell Schwartz, have both been exceptional this season, but Hali and Houston are too dynamic to be completely stopped.

    Two, Brandon Weeden can be very erratic. He'll look great one drive and then self destruct the next. Fortunately for Weeden, he has an easy matchup, as Kansas City's secondary is ranked 21st against the pass (7.2 YPA), though it's been slightly better of late.

    RECAP: The Six and Six Rule applies here. Teams that finish with six or fewer wins are generally great fades when favored by six or more points. Besides, this line is way too high. The Chiefs have played much better lately, beating Carolina and keeping it close against the Steelers and Broncos. Cleveland, meanwhile, has beaten only one team by more than six. Its victories have been by 10, 1, 6 and 3.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm sticking with the Chiefs for three units. Something I forgot to mention is that Kansas City has a ton of personnel that used to be on the Browns. They'll want revenge. This would be a much greater play if I had any faith in Quinn.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    It's unclear how the Chiefs will continue with the Jovan Belcher ramifications.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    A slight lean on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 62% (40,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Browns are 4-9 ATS as favorites since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Browns -5.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Browns 17, Chiefs 16
    Chiefs +7 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 38 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Browns 30, Chiefs 7








    San Diego Chargers (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
    Line: Steelers by 7.5. Total: 39.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Steelers -7.5 (Roethlisberger) or Steelers -1 (Batch).
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Steelers -9 (Roethlisberger) or Steelers -3 (Batch).
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: TBA.

    RANDOM MAIL: In addition to hate mail, I also receive plenty of unusual, random e-mails. For instance, this is from long-time e-mailer Joe S., who happened to be drunk one night:

    Hi Walt it happened at a bar tonight and I'n still semi drunk so, if there are typos's I'm sorry. I got talkoing to a Giants fanc and I had all my Pats stuff on and he laid it into me how much better the Giants were than us and a whole nunch of other shat. I almosy got thrown out when I told him you were belleping lucky to win both Bowls and I'd love to get as shot at your bumbs againand there is no waty you beat bleeping Dallas tonight if there is any justice for a lucky superbowl winner. He told me I'll bet 5 hundred with you staight up. II said no give me your cell and I'll bet 500 Ta xasino if I get 4.5 abd I'll bet 100 with hyou if you pay for mytab hwich was 50 straight upp/ He said cool and now I hah\ve 2 bets I didn't want to nmake all. because I got bombed. It looks like I mgiht win. but, ??

    As Joe later told me: There's a lesson you can learn from this: Sometimes getting pissed off and drunk at a bar can make you money.

    Meanwhile, this message is even crazier. I received it two weeks ago:



    So, he's been gambling since he was 9? I can only imagine a 9-year-old going up to a bookie and asking for Giants -2.5 for $100. What does a bookie even say to that? Does he accept his wager? And what if the bookie happens to be a major perv like Jerry Sandusky? That couldn't possibly end well.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers have a miserable offense. Philip Rivers' struggles are well documented, but it doesn't help that his offensive line is in shambles. Three linemen suffered injuries against the Bengals: Left guard Tyronne Green (hamstring), right tackle Jeromey Clary (left knee) and reserve left tackle Mike Harris (high ankle sprain), who was already filling in for Jared Gaither, who is out for the year.

    I don't know how the Chargers are going to block the Steelers. They've surrendered 14 sacks in their past three games, and most of that came before the three linemen went down. Pittsburgh's pass rush has improved lately, registering seven sacks in the previous two weeks. The Steelers will flood the backfield and cause havoc for Rivers.

    Making matters worse for San Diego, it won't be able to run the football at all. Ryan Mathews is inching closer and closer to being deemed a major bust. He won't have much success against a Pittsburgh stop unit ranked ninth versus the rush (3.99 YPC).

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There is no spread posted as of Wednesday afternoon because of Ben Roethlisberger's questionable status. Mike Tomlin said that Roethlisberger will get a chance to prove how healthy he is during practice this week.

    Either way, the Steelers should be able to air it out effectively. The Chargers have a mediocre aerial defense and a lacking pass rush, so even Charlie Batch will have some success. Batch had a nice rebound performance against the Ravens. This wasn't a surprise because his struggles against the Browns were wildly exaggerated. He had a long-gainer to Heath Miller wiped out by a penalty, and besides, when all four of your running backs lose fumbles, you're going to force the issue - I don't care who you are.

    Speaking of running backs, the Steelers should have a healthy ground attack going with Jonathan Dwyer, who ran well at Baltimore. The Chargers used to be quite solid against the rush, but they've fallen off lately, surrendering at least 123 yards on the ground to their previous three opponents.

    RECAP: I don't like the Steelers because they're coming off an emotional victory as a big underdog over their hated rival, but I am picking them because I like San Diego even less. The Chargers are playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast - a situation in which they've struggled with over the years.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't like the conflict here. The Steelers should be the right side, but I'm not betting on it.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Ravens.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
    A minor amount of action on the host.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 62% (31,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Philip Rivers is 23-13 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (8-4 ATS as an underdog).
  • Norv Turner is 5-8 ATS in East Coast 1 p.m. games.
  • Steelers are 26-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -7.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Chargers 13
    Steelers -7.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 34, Steelers 24






    Tennessee Titans (4-8) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
    Line: Colts by 4.5. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Colts -5.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Colts -6.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Colts.

    The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He once again didn't update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week, but messaged me on G-chat:

    The Real John Moss: hahaaa waltar im maake sexes with a gurl she name is waltrina im think maby she is ur sistar?? but she iz blackk soo maby no

    Me: Are you saying a black girl can't be my sister? That's racist!

    The Real John Moss: iz she ur sistar??

    Me: My long-lost sister, yeah.

    The Real John Moss: yesssss!! i see her at pankake hose an i see name tag i new i must hav her for my victury i kno she waz ur sistar wen i say to her waltrina do u kno anyting abowt footballs?? and she say no i doont

    Me: Is that because I don't know anything about footballs either?

    The Real John Moss: haa iz joke my brozer

    Me: It was a great joke! So you banged my long-lost sister... how was it?

    The Real John Moss: becuz itz ur sistar amazeing but asides that she iz terribull

    Me: She's amazing but terrible? Please explain.

    The Real John Moss: she waz wale i only make sexes witth her becuz she iz ur sistar i only slept modals b4 all so i asks her 2 make me pankakes in mourning but she says no how iz possable???

    Me: Because she wanted to eat all of the pancakes herself.

    The Real John Moss: but she iz wokr at pankake resturant waltar dose she cook u??? so i kcik her out roound hose kick like taxas rangers im hop poliece do nat come

    Me: No, she only works there so she can steal all of the pancakes for herself!

    The Real John Moss: u remembar my fite with prostitoot??

    Me: Yes.

    The Real John Moss: waltar i cannt go 2 jale i hav deel with chunli remembar

    Me: Well I won't report you.

    The Real John Moss: u will tell waltrina 2 yess??? woow thanks u my brozer i owe u faver iam in ur det

    Me: Well, I will make sure to collect in the future.

    The Real John Moss: yes anytheng i promiss u

    Me: I'll have to think of something.

    The Real John Moss: o k waltar im go get icy creems im try 2 bang gurl work there

    Me: OK sounds good, I hope she makes you pancakes.

    The Real John Moss: an she hav school tomorow so i mst act quickk gud bye my frend !!!!!!!!!! wish me luk

    Me: OK, good luck and stay out of trouble.

    Oh, if you're wondering what my long-lost black sister looks like, here she is:



    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck had an amazing fourth-quarter comeback at Detroit, but barely anyone is discussing how much he struggled before that. he was pretty brutal through three-and-a-half periods. If the Lions understood how to win football games, Luck wouldn't have had a chance to prevail at the very end.

    Having said that, Luck should be able to "rebound" with a complete solid performance against the Titans, who can't cover or tackle. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (7.7 YPA) and hasn't shown any signs of improving, even struggling mightily against Chad Henne. Luck was a very solid 26-of-38 for 297 yards, one touchdown and an interception when he battled this team back in Week 8.

    Luck may not even have to do much anyway because the Titans have surrendered a pair of 100-yard rushing performances in the two games since their bye - one of which came against Jalen Parmele and the Jaguars. Vick Ballard and Donald Brown combined for 135 rushing yards on 26 carries when these teams battled back in Week 8.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Jake Locker has been a turnover machine ever since returning to the lineup. In three games, he's tossed five interceptions and lost two fumbles. He's also maintained an even completion percentage of 50, which is pathetic considering his YPA of 6.5.

    Locker may improve because Indianapolis' defense is an abomination. The team does not get any pressure on the quarterback, as it has registered a meager six sacks in the past four weeks. As a result, Matt Hasselbeck was able to go 22-of-29 for 236 yards and a touchdown in the prior meeting. Hasselbeck lost that contest, but could have won it had he hit a wide-open Jared Cook for a game-winning score. Locker should be able to duplicate that performance as long as he takes care of the football.

    Chris Johnson also played well in the 19-13 tilt. He gashed the Colts' No. 31 ground defense for 99 yards on just 21 carries. Expect more of that, as Indianapolis has permitted its previous three opponents to run for at least 115 rushing yards.

    RECAP: Ugh, I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm picking the Titans. I feel like the Colts will be too distracted with the Texans on the horizon. It's also worth noting that only two of Indianapolis' victories have been by more than six points. Its awful defense lets the opposition hang around.

    If I had more faith in the Titans, I'd wager more units on them. However, I'm keeping this to just a two-unit bet because they've burned me so many times this year. They should be fine as a moderately sized underdog, but I just don't trust them.

    SURVIVOR PICK: I'm picking Tennessee to cover, but I have faith that Mike Munchak's squad will find some way to lose. The Colts are my top option available. The best survivor selections this week are: 49ers, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers, Broncos, Colts and Buccaneers, but I've used the first five already.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I've bumped this up to three units because the Titans are in such a great spot. Why do I feel like I'm going to regret this?


    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    The Colts have a tough matchup against the Texans coming up.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    The public is all over the Colts.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 71% (61,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won 15 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-8 ATS playing a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Colts -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Colts 28, Titans 27
    Titans +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Survivor Pick (12-1)
    Colts 27, Titans 23






    New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
    Line: Jets by 3. Total: 38.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jaguars -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Jaguars -1.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

    Some random NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. I receive lots of flak for my NFL Power Rankings, but at least I put some thought into it. ESPN does not, and I'm not the only one who thinks so. I saw the following tweet from @mikebeacom recently: "NFL power rankings should not rely so heavily on won-loss. Apparently ESPN disagrees."

    I clicked the link he provided and I was appalled. Take a look at a sample:



    You'd think with all of ESPN resources and money, the "worldwide leader" could hire someone to create power rankings without ripping off NFL.com's standings page.

    2. Speaking of ESPN, I've had enough of Stuart Scott. He does the following at least a dozen times during each Monday Night Football telecast - as the camera is panning away to cut to a commercial break, Scott gives some obscure stat like: "The Texans... trying to become only the sixth team in league history to win by 29 points when the temperature is 49 degrees or colder after achieving a victory of 19 points exactly five days earlier."

    I don't know where Scott gets his numbers from, but they're almost all irrelevant. His normal commentary is abysmal as well. For instance, just before the Saints-Eagles contest several Monday nights ago, he said: "We really have two great quarterbacks in this game."

    We really have two great quarterbacks? Who, Drew Brees and Chase Daniel? He can't have possibly been referring to turnover-machine QB Dog Killer, right? No way. A quarterback who can't read defenses or recognize defenses can't possibly be great.

    Unfortunately, Scott was, in fact, referring to QBDK. He also had this to say: "Michael Vick is the only NFL player to sign two $100M contracts."

    Once again, no. QBDK never signed a $100 million contract. I mentioned this about a month ago, but I learned from a legitimate source that the final $20 million of QBDK's contract was voided as soon as he played eight games in a single season. So, it was physically impossible for him to earn $100 million.

    It would be like if I went up to you and said, "Hey, I have a $1 million contract for you, but to earn it, you have to fly, stop time and poop gold coins out of your a**hole on a daily basis." If this happened, would you run around bragging that you signed a $1 million contract? Of course not, because unlike QBDK, you're an intelligent person who doesn't happen to be an arrogant douche. But then again, QBDK is "really a great quarterback."

    3. Staying in the NFC East, e-mailer Kevin J. sent this over:

    It's a shame that you don't have an extra set of ears so that you could listen to the Redskins games on the radio. It could easily be a weekly comedy bit for your website. The play-by-play guy, Sam Huff, is pretty good, but Sonny Jurgensen is as senile as anyone in media today and Doc Walker is such a homer and jumps so many calls it's hysterical. I only remember a few from the game against the Panthers, but every time the Redskins are set to receive a kick-off or a punt, Sonny says "Ya know, I wouldn't mind seeing a return here." Also, he screams "NO! NO!" at Sam Huff anytime he disagrees with him (no matter how wrong Sonny is). The highlight was a jumped call by Doc. Sam was in the middle of saying something like "Newton cross the middle for Smith and it's off his finger...", Doc butts in "Haha.....DROPPED!!"

    Hopefully I'll have some more of Walker's quotes in the upcoming weeks.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: And here I thought Rex Ryan couldn't get any dumber. After his completely idiotic reluctance to play Tim Tebow for three months, Ryan finally benched Mark Sanchez, who was actually outplayed by Ryan Lindley last week. Greg McElroy came in and threw a game-winning touchdown. McElroy is limited, but he at least took care of the football, unlike Sanchez. Conventional wisdom said that with Tebow "injured" (can't say I believe that one), Ryan would have opted for the more economical McElroy. But nope. Sanchez is once again the starter for some strange reason.

    I don't get it. Sanchez sucks. He's a bust. Ryan is a stubborn fool for sticking with him, and it'll ultimately cost him his job. Sanchez is known to have a decent performance once in a while, but Jacksonville's secondary is finally mostly healthy. Safety Dwight Lowery's return to the lineup has been huge, though cornerback Derek Cox was out last week. Cox could be back, and if he is, Sanchez won't be able to do much with his pedestrian receiving corps.

    Shonn Greene should be able to have another nice game, however. Greene actually eclipsed the century mark against the Cardinals, and he figures to have a similar performance against a defense that just surrendered 214 rushing yards to the Bills.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I almost wrote "MIAMI OFFENSE:" there because I was thinking about how Henne used to play against Ryan's defense. You'd think someone as mediocre as Henne would struggle against a defensive mastermind like Ryan, but that is hardly the case. In four battles against Ryan's Jets, Henne is a combined 63-of-109, 771 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. That's a solid YPA Of 7.1 and an acceptable completion percentage of 57.8.

    Even more promising for the Jaguars is that Henne has more weapons to work with in Jacksonville than he ever did in Miami - even if Cecil Shorts is out with a concussion. Justin Blackmon has been solid at times, while Marcedes Lewis has reemerged as a dependable weapon, now that he's actually being utilized in the passing game. Lewis won't have to block much because the Jets don't apply pressure on the quarterback; they have the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL.

    New York also struggles to run the football, so it's a shame for the Jaguars that they don't have Maurice Jones-Drew or even Jalen Parmele at their disposal. Rashad Jennings is even iffy to play (concussion), so it'll be up to someone named Montell Owens to pose as a weapon coming out of the backfield.

    RECAP: I don't really have a feel for this game because there aren't any scheduling or psychological dynamics favoring either side. I do know this, however - Sanchez, in no way, deserves to be a road favorite over anyone.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 59% (35,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Jaguars are 15-31 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jets -3.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Jaguars 17, Jets 13
    Jaguars +3 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 38.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jets 17, Jaguars 10




    Chicago Bears (8-4) at Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
    Line: Bears by 2.5. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bears -4.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bears -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bears.

    Random College Football Notes:

    1. As my editor put it, the BCS postseason exhibition schedule has been announced. And I don't really give a damn. There appears to be lots of controversy regarding Northern Illinois' inclusion, but who cares? These are all meaningless games. Why not let the Huskies prove themselves in some stupid bowl like the Minute Maid Orange Bowl or the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, or whatever? It's more interesting to see if Northern Illinois can beat Florida State rather than two perennial powers going head to head in a meaningless contest.

    2. There should be an eight- or a 16-team playoff anyway. If you were to go with the former, it would look like this:

    1 - Notre Dame
    8 - Texas A&M

    4 - Oregon
    5 - Georgia

    3 - Florida
    6 - Kansas State

    2 - Alabama
    7 - Stanford

    I moved Georgia from No. 7 to 5 so it could avoid Florida and Alabama in the first two rounds, and I also swapped in Texas A&M for LSU because I feel like the NCAA Selection Committee would want Johnny Football in this tournament.

    Seriously, how awesome would a playoff like this be? It would get the highest ratings ever. If the idiots running the NCAA had half a brain, they'd implement something like this immediately. They'd make so much money, and all of the fans (and players) would love it.

    3. A note on Garrett Booker, the guy who cheated won the Dr. Pepper Tuition Giveaway during halftime of the Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship. The premise of this was that two competitors had to throw as many footballs into a hole in a certain amount of time. Booker won the contest via a basketball chest-pass throwing motion, while the loser aired it out with a classic quarterback throwing style.

    It was totally bogus. Yes, Booker was smart enough to exploit the system, but he was throwing a football; not a basketball. I tweeted (@walterfootball): "Garrett Booker does not deserve that check with that awful throwing technique."

    @dstebbs had the best answer: "Still a better throwing motion than Tim Tebow."

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Two key Chicago defenders suffered injuries last week: Brian Urlacher hurt his hamstring, while cornerback Tim Jennings will be out awhile with a shoulder. Urlacher's absence would have been detrimental in the past, but the truth is that he hasn't been very good this year. Like Ray Lewis prior to his triceps tear, Urlacher was a major liability against the run. He's one of the main reasons Chicago is just an average 17th against ground attacks (4.4 YPC).

    The Bears don't stand a chance of stopping Adrian Peterson, regardless of whether Urlacher happened to be in the lineup or not. Peterson has gashed his six previous opponents for six yards per carry or more, which is just sick. He gained 108 yards on 18 attempts against Chicago in Week 12, but the Vikings fell into a hole early and consequently couldn't give him enough touches.

    Jennings' injury is actually more troubling than Urlacher's for the long term, but that doesn't happen to be the case in this contest because the Vikings can't throw the ball. Since Percy Harvin's injury against the Seahawks in Week 9, Christian Ponder has gone a combined 69-of-122 for 562 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions and a lost fumble. That's a Ryan Lindley-like YPA of 4.6. Two of those turnovers occurred at Chicago in that aforementioned Week 12 tilt.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler actually made his return from his one-and-a-half-game hiatus versus Minnesota. He was a sharp 23-of-31 for 188 yards, one touchdown and an interception. He was also great last week against the Seahawks, so it's difficult to imagine him slowing down against an opponent he beat up on just two weeks ago.

    The Vikings will need to put more pressure on Cutler to change things around. They sacked him only once back in Week 12. That might be attributed to the fact that Chicago maintained a big lead throughout, but then you'd have to look at the Vikings' mere two sacks against Green Bay's atrocious offensive line in a game in which they held an advantage for the majority of the contest.

    Matt Forte also figures to have a solid performance. The Vikings just surrendered 137 rushing yards to the inept platoon of James Starks and Alex Green, and I'd say Forte is just a bit better than both of those two.

    RECAP: The Bears have won the previous six meetings in this matchup. I think it'll be seven by Sunday evening. Minnesota looks lost right now, and Chicago is the better team overall.

    The Bears are also in a good spot. They looked past Seattle with two divisional contests on the horizon, so they'll be completely focused on this game. Also, teams coming off home overtime losses tend to cover at a high rate.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't understand why the top-ranked players in the Super Contest are taking the Vikings. Of those who have 38 wins or more, 17 are taking Minnesota, while only three (including myself) are on Chicago. Oh well. I still love the Bears.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    Not as much action on the Bears as I would've thought.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 63% (39,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 19 meetings (Bears won last 6 meetings).
  • Bears are 11-28 ATS in December road games the previous 39 instances.
  • Jay Cutler is 29-48 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 19
    Bears -2.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Over 39.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Vikings 21, Bears 14




    Atlanta Falcons (11-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-9)
    Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Falcons -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Falcons -3.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Falcons.

    If you've been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It's fun writing material, and besides, if they're busy with me, they're not conning someone else - so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

    I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It's taking up too much space, so I've given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: It was bizarre to see the Falcons being so forceful on the ground in the opening drive of their Thursday night victory over the Saints - until I remembered who the opponent was. Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers combined to gash New Orleans for 126 yards on just 20 carries. While Turner has looked decrepit for most of the season, he should have success against the Panthers, who have been pathetic in their attempts to stop ground attacks lately. They've surrendered at least 140 rushing yards to their previous three opponents, including 216 to the Eagles.

    The Falcons operate so much more efficiently in the red zone when they can establish the run. Scoring deep in opposing territory has been their Achilles' heel this season, but they converted two of three attempts against New Orleans. The Panthers have been miserable at stopping their opponents in the red zone in recent weeks, so look for Atlanta to score sevens instead of threes whenever they put a long drive together.

    And there will be long drives. The Panthers have serious issues in their secondary. I mean, Brady Quinn was a near-perfect 19-of-23 for 201 yards, for crying out loud.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Falcons' defense, under Mike Nolan, has done a great job of limiting opposing No. 1 wideouts. For example, Marques Colston did nothing in two tries against them. Dez Bryant was limited to one catch for 15 yards about a month ago. And even Carolina's own Steve Smith was barely a factor in Week 4, registering only three receptions for 52 yards.

    You'd think that an offense with only one legitimate receiver would struggle against a stop unit like this, but that wasn't the case when these teams clashed back in Week 4. Cam Newton went 15-of-24 for 215 yards and two aerial touchdown. He did most of his damage running the ball though, collecting 86 rushing yards and a third score on nine scrambles.

    Newton will once again be a threat on the ground, as will DeAngelo Williams. The veteran running back has struggled for most of this year, but the Falcons are just terrible against the rush, ranking 27th (4.6 YPC) in that department. In fact, Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 89 yards on just 21 carries in the prior meeting.

    RECAP: I'm going to keep my promise. I love the Panthers because the Falcons are in a terrible spot, coming off an emotional victory against the Saints. I would have made this a big play in the past, but I am no longer betting heavily on teams that find ways to lose unless they're getting a healthy amount of points as an underdog. I could see Carolina outplaying Atlanta for the majority of this contest and then doing something stupid at the end to lose by 3-6 points.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers are definitely the right side, but they're going to find some way to lose this game. I'd love them so much more if I could get +4.


    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    The Falcons just won an emotional game against the Saints.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    All of the money is on the Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 71% (65,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Falcons have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Matt Ryan is 11-6 ATS as a road favorite (9-4 ATS outdoors).
  • Panthers are 30-46 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 26
    Panthers +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 47 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Panthers 30, Falcons 20




    Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
    Line: Buccaneers by 7.5. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Buccaneers -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Buccaneers -7.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

    Video of the Week: My friend and former neighbor Schmidty showed me this video containing two hilarious Craigslist prank calls.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Andy Reid announced a couple of days ago that Nick Foles will be the starter for the rest of the season. It's good to know that not all overweight coaches make dumb decisions regarding their quarterbacks. Sticking with Foles is absolutely the right move. Even if he didn't show signs of life last week, QB Dog Killer will not be back with the team next year, so why not see what Foles has to offer?

    And Foles definitely showed more than just life versus the Cowboys. He was very solid, going 22-of-34 for 251 yards and a touchdown. He didn't do this against the best of secondaries, but the Buccaneers aren't exactly a step up. Only the Saints and Chiefs have a worse defensive YPA than Tampa Bay this year (8.23). The Buccaneers don't have either of their starting cornerbacks, while their defensive front has the third-fewest sacks in the NFL (18), ahead of only the Raiders (14) and Jaguars (13).

    Foles has gotten better each week, but the real rookie revelation on Philadelphia's roster has been Bryce Brown. Though Brown has a fumbling problem, he's been exceptional otherwise. He's shown extremely rare running ability over these past two games, gashing the Panthers and Cowboys for a combined 347 yards and four touchdowns on just 43 carries. That's a yards-per-carry average of 8.1, which is just sick. Running against Tampa Bay's No. 1 ground defense (3.5 YPC) will prove to be a challenge, but Bryce has the talent to overcome that.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have a star rookie runner of their own, but he's been far less impressive in recent weeks than Philadelphia's. Since nearly breaking Adrian Peterson's single-game rushing record, Doug Martin has struggled. He's gained 3.6 yards per carry or worse in three of the four games since, including 2.4 against Atlanta's woeful run defense. Martin appears to have hit a rookie wall; he just seems worn down.

    Like the Buccaneers, the Eagles possess a solid run defense. They're currently ranked 11th in that department (4.03 YPC), but they've limited their previous four opponents to a 3.6 average. In other words, Martin will likely disappoint again.

    It's no surprise that Tampa's aerial attack has sputtered ever since Martin's production plummeted. Josh Freeman has maintained a yards-per-attempt average of 6.2 or worse in two of his four previous starts. Fortunately for him, he gets to battle Philadelphia's epically pathetic secondary that features cornerbacks no longer interested in covering and tackling and safeties that blow multiple assignments per quarter.

    RECAP: I received several e-mails last week asking why I didn't have a November NFL Pick of the Month. I haven't been able to answer them just yet because I went to a wedding this past weekend, so I'll do so here: I just haven't loved a game all that much. But I do love this one. In fact, I'm going to use Philadelphia as my November NFL Pick of the Month. This kind of reminds me of Jets-Texans where the inferior team was in such an incredible spot. There are so many reasons I love the Eagles:

    1. Public perception is that the Eagles are the worst team in the league. "They're not winning another football game this year," said Bill Simmons on his B.S. Report. I love this type of overreaction. Philadelphia led the majority of the Dallas game and probably would've prevailed had Brown not lost a fumble returned for a touchdown. The Eagles also held a second-half lead against the Panthers. That doesn't sound like the worst team in the league to me. They are capable of playing well if they try. They didn't give any effort against Washington, but those days are over now that the players know that they've moved on from the QBDK era.

    2. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are in a funk. They lost by eight at Denver, but trailed 28-10 at the end of the third quarter. Before that, they lost to the Falcons and got very lucky in a comeback victory against the Panthers in overtime. Tampa hasn't played well since beating the Chargers back in Week 10, and San Diego happened to be stuck in an unfavorable 1 p.m. game on the East Coast.

    3. The Bucs figure to be down coming off two emotional losses. They put a lot into battling the Falcons and Broncos. They came up short, so there's no way they'll be able to muster enough energy against the Eagles.

    4. Tampa also has a look-ahead situation. The team battles the Saints as a road underdog next week. If you're a member of the offensive coaching staff, whom are you preparing for more, Foles or Drew Brees, who torched you back in Week 7?

    5. I love road underdogs coming off an away loss. This is a 67-percent covering proposition.

    6. Reid has always been at his best when his back is against the wall. That's certainly the case here, as he's getting more than a touchdown. Reid is 10-3 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000. That includes last week's cover at Dallas.

    7. For those of you who are into trends, here's a cool one that favors Philadelphia: Underdogs that have lost five or more games in a row are 102-58 against the spread dating back to 1989 if they lost their previous game by eight points or fewer. This also applies to the Cardinals at Seattle, by the way.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This is still my November NFL Pick of the Month. The Buccaneers are reeling off two emotional losses. They won't be able to get up for this "crappy" Eagle team.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Buccaneers are coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos and may have trouble getting up for a poor opponent.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    Barely anyone wants to bet on Philadelphia.
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 66% (46,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Andy Reid is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.
  • Andy Reid is 13-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
  • Buccaneers are 8-19 ATS at home in the previous 27 instances.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 26
    Eagles +7.5 (7 Units - November NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$700
    Over 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Eagles 23, Buccaneers 21




    St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) at Buffalo Bills (5-7)
    Line: Bills by 3. Total: 42.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bills -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bills -3.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS

    Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

    Well, Brady's been stuck on three. He's no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games - especially those involving Tim Tebow - but then he's so lackadaisical in others.

    So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it's the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It's unknown to the media, but Brady's haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

    For instance, the following exchange took place during a day off.



    Brandon Lloyd: Ugh, where are we going? I thought we were going to the mall again?

    Tom Brady: Don't worry. We're going near the mall. We're going to hang out by the bus stop for a little while.

    Wes Welker: Oh, God, not this again.

    Brandon Lloyd: I'm almost afraid to ask.

    Tom Brady: Don't be afraid to ask, Brandon. I know you come from a middle-class family, but I don't want that to be a reason why you would be discouraged to ask questions.

    Brandon Lloyd: Hey, what the hell is with that shot at me?

    Wes Welker: Here we go again.

    Brandon Lloyd: Here we go again with what? What are we doing at a bus stop?

    Tom Brady: Glad you asked, Brandon. Let it be known that I do not exclude the middle class, even if you are inferior to me. We are going to the bus stop to laugh at all of the poor people who can't afford cars.

    Brandon Lloyd: What? Why?

    Tom Brady: Being that you're a middle-class citizen, I wouldn't expect you to understand. See, Brandon, I come from a rich family. That's how I can afford this snazzy haircut and awesome polo shirt. My family's rich, so when my parents die, I'll be rich, so it's my job to keep the poor people down so that they don't become a threat to my money.

    Wes Welker: HEY A**HOLE, YOU SIGNED A $78.5 MILLION CONTRACT TWO YEARS AGO. YOU'RE THE ONE WHO HAS THE WEALTH; NOT YOUR PARENTS. STOP PRETENDING THAT YOU'RE A SNOBBY, RICH KID BECAUSE YOU LOOK LIKE ONE RIGHT NOW!

    Tom Brady: I can never win with you guys. If I don't berate poor people, they'll take my money away. If I do it, you yell at me. What am I to do? Huh, Wes? Or are you just mad that my family has seven yachts and you only have four?

    Brandon Lloyd: Why do you have seven yachts?

    Tom Brady: Oh, Brandon, this middle-class innocence of yours is so precious. So, so precious.

    Brandon Lloyd: But I'm not middle-

    Tom Brady: Hey, look! There's a poor person getting off the bus! Hey poor person, how many yachts do you have? Two? Three? Ha! I have seven! Yeah, seven! And how many bathrooms do you have in your house? Five! What a loser!

    Brandon Lloyd: Is he serious, Wes?

    Wes Welker: I'm afraid so.

    Tom Brady: Hey poor person, I bet your dad makes only $500,000 per year! I bet you have only eight TVs in your house! Why don't you just go and kill yourself!?

    Brandon Lloyd: Speaking of killing oneself, that's what I want to do right now.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Danny Amendola is questionable for the Rams, but the big injury in this game is to center Eric Wood, who might be out for the year with a torn MCL. His absence will be huge. It'll give defensive tackles Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers a big edge in the interior. As a result, the Bills won't be able to pass protect or run block nearly as well.

    The Rams are tough to run on anyway. They currently rank sixth versus the rush (3.87 YPC), but they've been much better in that department in recent weeks. As an example, they limited Frank Gore and the 49ers' ground attack to just 64 yards on 27 carries. Buffalo can run the ball very well with C.J. Spiller, but Chan Gailey is back to inexplicably giving Fred Jackson the majority of the workload.

    I wouldn't expect much out of Buffalo's aerial attack if the team can't run the ball effectively. The Rams can use Cortland Finnegan to eliminate Stevie Johnson, which will leave Ryan Fitzpatrick with T.J. Graham and Scott Chandler to throw to. St. Louis has forced a plethora of turnovers lately, and it looks like it might be primed for at least one more against a limited Bills' offense missing its starting center.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: As mentioned, Amendola's status is up in the air. This used to be a big deal, but Chris Givens has emerged as a viable starting receiver. Givens has accumulated 16 catches, 207 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks.

    This would have been a major problem for the Bills about a month ago, but they've improved tremendously versus the pass since their bye. Thanks to Mario Williams' recovery, they've limited their previous four opponents to a 5.74 yards-per-attempt average, which ranks as No. 2 in the NFL behind the Bengals and Steelers in that span. The Rams have a limited aerial offense and a pedestrian offensive line, so don't expect crazy passing numbers or anything.

    St. Louis will also have problems rushing the ball. This may surprise you, but no team in the NFL has been better against the run over the past four weeks than the Bills. They've restricted their foes to 3.22 yards per carry in that time.

    RECAP: Both defenses are playing extremely well right now, so I'd expect a scoring struggle. I'd favor the Rams because of the Wood injury, but it's a very close call.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
    The Rams are coming off a big win against the 49ers, but they're underdogs in this matchup.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on St. Louis: 50% (37,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 23-15 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Bills -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Rams 16
    Rams +3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Under 42.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Rams 15, Bills 12




    Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
    Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 46.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bengals -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bengals -3.
    Sunday, Dec. 9, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

    Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 49 people remaining. One person was brave enough to pick the Chiefs.

    Picking Contest: We're also running an NFL Picking Contest. It's free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys looked pretty sharp offensively last week, but it's difficult to say if this was a byproduct of whom they were playing or the result of getting DeMarco Murray back from injury. Perhaps it was a combination of both. Murray gives Dallas an actual threat out of the backfield, but Philadelphia's putrid secondary was more than willing to blow assignments and tackle poorly.

    The Bengals won't be as accommodating. They actually have the No. 1 pass defense over the past four weeks (5.25 YPA), thanks in part to their secondary being completely healthy for a change. They'll have their hands full against Dez Bryant, who is on fire right now. Fortunately for the defensive backfield, they'll have their front line helping out by putting tons of pressure on Tony Romo. The Bengals are tied with the Broncos for the most sacks in the league (38). They've recorded a whopping 15 sacks over the past four weeks.

    The Cowboys will have to establish Murray to keep the heat off Romo. That's easier said than done though, even against the league's No. 22 ground defense (4.51 YPC). Dallas' offensive line is just that pathetic.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Conversely, the Bengals' front has been pretty forceful the past few weeks. After all, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has enjoyed three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. This could easily be a fourth because Dallas' banged-up defense has permitted all but one of its previous six opponents to gain at least 100 yards on the ground.

    Green-Ellis' effective rushing will make life easier for Andy Dalton, who will operate in shorter-yardage situations rather than constant long-distance downs. This means that DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer won't be as much of a factor, which is always good for teams attempting to block those two.

    With Dalton comfortable in the pocket again - he's been sacked only five times in the past four weeks - he should be able to dissect a troubled Dallas secondary ranked in the bottom 10 of yards-per-attempt average. The play of fill-in backup safety Danny McCray has to be depressing for Cowboy fans; he blows assignments and takes so many bad angles.

    RECAP: The Bengals are the better team, but they're in a tough spot because they have to take the field again in four days. Favorites prior to Thursday nights have been brutal this year, and I'm willing to bet one unit that Cincinnati is yet another team that will struggle in this situation.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Interesting that this spread has risen to -3.5 despite action on the Cowboys. The sharps like Cincinnati, but I can't figure out why. I'll take the extra point.

    FINAL THOUGHTS II: Practice-squad player Jerry Brown passed away when nose tackle Josh Brent's car flipped over Saturday night. We may see the Cowboys rally like the Chiefs did, but who really knows with these situations? I'm dropping this to zero units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 56% (65,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 4-11 ATS prior to Thursday games this year.
  • Tony Romo is 7-18 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-6 ATS as an underdog).
  • Bengals are 11-26 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Bengals 24
    Cowboys +3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 46 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 20, Bengals 19




    Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Dolphins at 49ers, Saints at Giants, Cardinals at Seahawks, Lions at Packers, Texans at Patriots



    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks - Late Games



    NFL Picks - Oct. 23


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 5


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    NFL Free Agents




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-5
    Bears: 3-4
    Bucs: 4-2
    49ers: 3-3
    Eagles: 3-3
    Lions: 2-4
    Falcons: 3-4
    Cardinals: 2-4
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 4-2
    Panthers: 2-5
    Rams: 3-3
    Redskins: 4-3
    Vikings: 5-2
    Saints: 2-3
    Seahawks: 3-3
    Bills: 3-4
    Bengals: 2-4
    Colts: 4-3
    Broncos: 4-2
    Dolphins: 5-0
    Browns: 3-1
    Jaguars: 3-4
    Chargers: 2-5
    Jets: 4-3
    Ravens: 2-4
    Texans: 5-2
    Chiefs: 4-1
    Patriots: 4-3
    Steelers: 3-4
    Titans: 4-2
    Raiders: 3-3
    Divisional: 12-14 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 7-6 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 6-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-14 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 3-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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