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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)

NFL Picks (2012): 76-83-3 (-$280)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 11:59 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)
Line: Saints by 5. Total: 55.5.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -3.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I've received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 11 has been posted - Eric Mangini and Asian Erin Andrews' wedding!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Do I even have to talk about how things will work on this side of the ball? Well, I suppose I could use this space to criticize the lack of effort the Raiders gave against Baltimore. That was so unbelievably pathetic. I couldn't believe what I was watching. Guys like Tommy Kelly and Philip Wheeler just gave up. Kelly, who should have been cut months ago, offered up this gem earlier this week:

Nice job, Tommy. Way to give yourself an excuse when the interior of New Orleans' offensive line destroys you.

Drew Brees won't have any issues scoring in this contest. Oakland's secondary, which is missing starting cornerback Shawntae Spencer, doesn't have a chance. Hopefully Richard Seymour will be back; he was out last week with a hamstring. His return could at least limit the Saints' rushing attack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Saints will be scoring on nearly every possession, but the same could be said for the Raiders. New Orleans' has one of the worst defenses of all time. Every quarterback has looked great against them this year, and Carson Palmer should be no exception. Palmer's downfield weapons are too talented for the Saints to handle.

The Raiders will get a boost this week, as right tackle Khalif Barnes will return to the lineup for the first time since Week 2. I know, it's difficult to say Barnes' name and "boost" in the same sentence, but he's a billion times better than his replacement, Willie Smith. Barnes should help keep Palmer clean against a pass rush that has just 14 sacks on the year if you exclude what happened two Monday nights ago against Philadelphia's terrible front line.

Unfortunately for Oakland, Darren McFadden will not be back. Neither will Mike Goodson. Marcel Reece will see the majority of the workload again. He'll be effective as a receiver, but he's not good enough of a runner to exploit the Saints. Thus, it'll be difficult for the Raiders to score touchdowns once they reach the red zone, which has actually been the case all year. While the Saints are notching sevens, the Raiders will only be getting threes, and that will be the difference in this game.

RECAP: This is a terrible spot for the Saints and a great situation for the Raiders. Here's why I love the home underdog:

1. New Orleans is coming off an emotional victory against the Falcons and will be flat, especially with the 49ers, Falcons, Giants, Buccaneers and Cowboys coming up.

2. The Raiders just endured a spread loss of 25-plus, which is usually a bet-on situation. Teams that are blown out tend to be embarrassed, so they play extra hard the following week. Forget Terrell Williams' 4-year-old son; this week, Oakland is playing for pride.

3. The public is pounding New Orleans like there's no tomorrow. Vegas has to recoup its losses from two weeks ago.

4. The Saints are not the same team out of their dome. Brees has covered just four of his previous 13 as a road favorite of more than four points.

5. There's good line value with the Raiders. They were +3 prior to last week, but now the spread has moved to +4.5 (though it's worth noting that it opened at +6.5).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't like that Richard Seymour is out, but there's just too much going in the Raiders' favor for me to move off the three-unit pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
The Saints are coming off an emotional win. Also, check out their next five opponents: 49ers, Falcons, Giants, Tampa Bay and Dallas.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Predictably, everyone is on the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 90% (75,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Drew Brees is 32-19 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Raiders are 5-25 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.
  • Opening Line: Saints -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 54.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Raiders 30
    Raiders +5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 55.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Saints 38, Raiders 17

    Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)
    Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 54.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -9.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -9.
    Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
    Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    Jerks of the Week for Nov. 12, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are the Blonde Kid, Gay Tea Time James, Lisa Turtle (from Saved by the Bell) and Howard Eskin.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As you may have seen earlier, one of the many posters who got mad at me for my NFL Power Rankings complained that I had the Colts way too low because Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the NFL since John Elway. I wouldn't go that far yet, but Luck has certainly been impressive, particularly in terms of using his legs and picking up third-down conversions.

    Luck seemingly has an easy matchup versus the Patriots. After all, the Bills went up and down the field against them, and they have a worse quarterback with inferior weapons (Buffalo doesn't use C.J. Spiller) at his disposal. If you listened to Monday's B.S. Report, Bill Simmons complained about the lack of talent on defense, shouting, "Everyone they bring in sucks!" So, Luck should have no issues engineering scoring drives all evening, correct?

    Well, there's one thing the Sports Guy forgot, and that's Aqib Talib's return. Talib, acquired from Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago, is a legitimate shutdown cornerback. If Talib takes away Reggie Wayne - and I don't see why he wouldn't - whom will Luck rely on? Luck's only hope is that his team establishes a solid ground attack, which is possible, given that the Patriots have surrendered 4.5 YPC in their previous four games.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Patriots have one of the top offenses in the league. Is there any way Indianapolis can contain New England?

    In a word, no. Not unless the Patriots are completely sloppy with the football, and considering they have the least turnovers in the NFL, that's unlikely to happen.

    The Colts can't stop the run, so New England will get Stevan Ridley going. This will set up Tom Brady in easy passing downs. The Colts will have Robert Mathis back in the lineup to help pressure Brady, but the Patriot All-Pro signal-caller simply has too many weapons at his disposal for Indianapolis to handle - especially if Aaron Hernandez returns from injury. And once New England reaches the red zone? Forget about it. The Patriots have been razor-sharp inside the red zone recently, while Indianapolis has the seventh-worst defensive unit in that area.

    RECAP: The Patriots suck as big home favorites, and teams in general tend to struggle when laying points prior to a Thursday contest. So, under normal circumstances, I'd take the Colts for a couple of units, but there are a couple of things holding me back:

    1. I feel like people are underestimating Talib's return to the lineup. Simmons, a Patriot homer, didn't even mention him. There's such overreaction to New England's near-loss that it could motivate the team. Remember the last time the Patriots almost fell to a divisional foe? They went on to destroy the Rams the following week.

    2. Brady is an egomaniac who wants all of the attention. He absolutely hated Tim Tebow getting all of the headlines, which is why he was locked into F-U mode in two battles against Denver last year. Now, everyone's talking about how Luck is so awesome. Brady will want the media focused on him and his pretty hair again, so he'll have that F-U mode look in his eyes.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. This is a coin flip.

    The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
    This is a meaningless game for the Patriots, who have to play in four days.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 51% (52,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-9 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.
  • Tom Brady is 141-47 as a starter (109-75 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 17-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (7-19 ATS since November 2007).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 53.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Colts 26
    Colts +9.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 54 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Patriots 59, Colts 24

    San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3)
    Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Broncos -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Broncos -7.
    Sunday, Nov. 18, 4:15 ET
    Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    It's time for some Migelini Madness! sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won't be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

    Well, I'm taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

    In addition to being a successful rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson is also in the Lord of the Rings, apparently.

    I like how Kyle took me seriously.

    Someone who takes this a little too seriously is Maury Balmer. People took turns criticizing our English in this thread:

    You can tell someone's very mature when they respond to you by calling you "fagit."

    Meanwhile, Patty Cake thinks I need to see a specialist:

    Oh, and I'm sure you guys aren't surprised by Migelini's political views:

    I'm upset that a post was deleted in that thread. Some girl named Jackie wrote this long rant about this country failing because idiots like myself voting multiple times for Barack Obama.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Things haven't been going so well for Philip Rivers lately. Back in Week 6, he had that epic meltdown on Monday Night Football. After the bye, he lost to the Browns, thanks in part to a dropped Robert Meachem touchdown. He then had a decent performance against the Chiefs, but then tossed a dumb, game-clinching pick, prompting Norv Turner to freak out at the post-game press conference.

    Rivers hasn't played well since Week 2 of the 2010 season when he suffered a shoulder injury at New England. I don't know if it's lingering or not, but it's certainly not the cause for Rivers' poor decision-making. Perhaps if Rivers had better talent around him... Left tackle Jared Gaither has been in and out of the lineup with his chronic back problems; Meachem has finally been displaced by Danario Alexander, but he has to deal with Champ Bailey this week; while the oft-injured Ryan Mathews fumbles when he's not picking up meaningless three-yard gains on every play.

    The Broncos have been so much better defensively since the bye. Young corners Tony Carter and Chris Harris have stepped up, which has helped the pass rush accumulate a mind-boggling 17 sacks in its previous four games, including four against the Bastard of the Trident back in Week 6. San Diego's offensive line simply won't be able to block Denver, while Rivers' receivers won't be able to get open. It's a recipe for disaster.

    DENVER OFFENSE: San Diego's secondary has not looked good when battling top competition this year. For example, Peyton Manning went 24-of-30 for 309 yards, three touchdowns and an interception that wasn't his fault in that Week 6 meeting. Manning remarkably led the Broncos into the end zone on every single second-half possession, save for one drive in which Eric Decker was whistled for a bogus offensive pass interference that wiped out a long reception.

    Nothing has really changed since then. Josh Freeman just torched the Chargers this past weekend, so why can't Manning do the same thing, especially now that he's five weeks healthier than he was in the middle of October? San Diego has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL, while Denver has the No. 2 red-zone offense (behind New Orleans). How in the world are the Chargers going to stop the Broncos?

    The one hope San Diego has is to collect turnovers. Willis McGahee and Demaryius Thomas have been sloppy with the ball this year, so the Chargers better be ready to pounce on a fumble.

    RECAP: This is a complete mismatch on paper in Denver's favor. That's one of the reasons why I like the Chargers. Teams with double-star game edges haven't done well this year (check below the comment board for specifics).

    Other reasons to take San Diego:

    1. The Chargers' season is on the line. In fact, the entire front office's job is on the line. A loss here would knock San Diego out of the playoff race, and if owner Alex Spanos is actually paying attention to his team for once, he could decide to fire A.J. Smith and the Norval. The Chargers are home favorites next week, so they have nothing else to worry about. This is the ultimate do-or-die for them.

    2. I love betting on road underdogs immediately following a road loss. This dynamic covers 67 percent of the time.

    3. The Norval isn't a good head coach, but something he does well is cover the spread in same-season revenge situations (see trends below). SURVIVOR PICK: Though I have the Chargers covering, the Broncos are the top survival option I have available this week. My top survivor teams are the Texans, Falcons, Patriots and Broncos, but I've already used the top three. Dallas would be a distant fifth.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm dropping this to one unit because of Jared Gaither being out.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
    No one wants to bet on Philip Rivers over Peyton Manning? Why?
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 69% (52,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • History: Chargers have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Philip Rivers is 15-11 ATS as an underdog.
  • Norv Turner is 5-1 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -7.
  • Opening Total: 50.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 20
    Chargers +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 30, Chargers 23

    Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
    Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 40.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -5.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Steelers -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Steelers -4.5 (Roethlisberger) or Ravens -1 (Leftwich).
    Sunday, Nov. 18, 8:20 ET
    Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.

    I can't wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That's what gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron. Here's another post from Victor Valentino:

    Ah, I miss the racism from the old GameCenter. I also miss the perverts. Here's Aaron having an exchange with me:

    Aaron then tried getting nacked pictures from someone else:

    And I'm being a good samaritan here. I just saved Armon Rose:

    I hope someone says yes eventually. If so, I'll post their "nacked" and bikini pictures.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game. In fact, he could be gone for quite awhile. Byron Leftwich will start for the first time since 2009 when he was with the Buccaneers.

    Is this a recipe for disaster? Most people seem to think so. Bettors are pounding the Ravens like there's no tomorrow, and you can't exactly blame them if you saw Leftwich's painfully long delivery against the Chiefs on Monday night. This will be problematic against defenses that put heavy pressure on the quarterback. I guess it's a good thing for Pittsburgh that Baltimore doesn't do this. The Ravens rank in the bottom 10 in terms of sacks, mustering just 16 on the season.

    Baltimore also struggles versus the run. This is well-documented. The team put the clamps on Oakland's ground attack, but only because the Raiders had their third-string runner in the game. The Steelers, who figure to have Rashard Mendenhall back in the lineup, pound the rock much better than Oakland. They will pick up big chunks of yardage that way, giving Leftwich short-yardage situations to work with.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As with its offense, Pittsburgh's defense is dealing with injuries. Troy Polamalu has been out since the second half of Week 5. Now, fellow safety Ryan Clark will also be missing from the lineup because of a concussion.

    Joe Flacco has to be loving this. He rebounded from a pedestrian performance at Cleveland to torch the Raiders, and he should be able to pick up right where he left off against the Steelers' battered secondary. Flacco had issues with Pittsburgh early in his career, but he was 45-of-76, 524 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in two meetings against his arch rival last year.

    If you watched the most recent Monday night contest, you saw the Chiefs completely trample the Steelers on the ground, as Jamaal Charles picked up 100 rushing yards on 23 carries. Ray Rice is a similar runner, though he's often constricted by Cam Cameron's moronic game plans. If Cameron wises up and gives Rice the appropriate amount of touches, the Ravens should be able to control the time of possession and score on most of their drives. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

    RECAP: One thing I love to do is bet on good teams missing their starting quarterback. Good teams - the Steelers certainly fit into that pantheon - often step up and give 110 percent, as the players know they need to do so to overcome adversity. The opposition, meanwhile, takes its foe lightly because the starting signal-caller is out. That would explain why the Steelers are 5-2 against the spread when Roethlisbeger misses his first non-Week 17 game.

    With the public all over the Ravens, I'm going with Pittsburgh as an enticing home underdog. I was going to bet three units on the Steelers +2.5 when I was looking at this game Tuesday night, but the spread has risen to +3.5. That's just a complete overreaction line. I'm bumping it to four units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Steelers a lot, but this spread has dropped to +3. There also isn't as much betting action on Baltimore. I'm moving this to three units.

    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    The Steelers will be giving 110 percent with Big Ben out.

    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    Everyone is pounding the Ravens.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 73% (55,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 21 meetings (Flacco 2-6 vs. Roethlisberger).
  • Steelers are 5-2 ATS when Ben Roethlisbeger misses his first non-Week 17 game.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 13
    Steelers +3 (3 Units) -- Push; $0
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Ravens 13, Steelers 10

    Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)
    Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 34.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): 49ers -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): 49ers -3 (Cutler & Kaepernick) or 49ers -4 (Cutler & Smith) or 49ers -6 (Campbell & Kaepernick) or 49ers -7 (Campbell & Smith).
    Monday, Nov. 19, 8:30 ET
    Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.

    This week on Monday Night Football, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, the gayest city of the world. Guys... wait, where is everyone? Emmitt, it's just you, me and Griese.

    Emmitt: Rick, to tell you the... uhh... not the false, I'm not surprise that nobody showned up. San Francisco home of all the homophobe, and people who scare of homophobe are call heterophobe, and heterophobe do not like to comed to San Francisco.

    Reilly: This is true, Emmitt. The only reason I'm here is because they forced me. Well, I guess we won't have much of a pre-game show for you guys, unless you have something insightful to say about this game, Griese.

    Griese: Weh? There's a game? Who's playing?

    Reilly: And that's all there is to say about that. So, I guess stay tuned... wait, I'm getting a call. Hello? Hi, Tolly! Hey, Emmitt's it's Don Tollefson! Sure, I'll say hi for you. Tolly, where are you? Oh... afraid of getting hit on by the homos in San Francisco? Yeah, I understand. I'm just disappointed that you couldn't make it because I would've loved to make fun of them with you, Tolly. OK, I'll tell him, Tolly. See ya.

    Emmitt: Who calleded you, Mike?

    Reilly: Emmitt, that was Tolly. He says hello. He also told me to make sure that you cover up your anus while in San Francisco as a safety precaution.

    Emmitt: That is good advicement in the land of homophobe.

    Reilly: Yup. Now, I guess stay tuned for... hey, what the hell is under the desk? Holy crap, it's Matt Millen!

    Millen: Uuuuuuuhhhh... where am I?

    Reilly: San Francisco. We're about to broadcast a game!

    Millen: Ohhh man, I'm so not ready for this.

    Reilly: What happened?

    Millen: We had a huge kielbasa party Wednesday night. As you may know, San Francisco is the kielbasa capital of the world. We had 30,000 people here at the stadium. It was wild - the party went on for three straight days. I must have slept for more than 36 hours if it's Monday night already. Kevin, let me tell you, I've never had so many kielbasas shoved into my...

    Reilly: We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Alex Smith has been cleared for non-contact drills, so it's looking like he'll start against the Bears. I was actually hoping that Smith would sit out a game so we could see more of Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco fans should probably want the same thing. Smith has limitations, while Kaepernick has way more potential. He's just raw because of inexperience. I feel like the 49ers can actually win a Super Bowl if Jim Harbaugh continues to develop Kaepernick. Smith, on the other hand, probably can't lead his team to the Promised Land.

    It'll be extremely difficult for the 49ers to move the chains in this contest. The Bears have an awesome defense that is incredibly difficult to throw against. They also create tons of turnovers, so if Smith isn't 100 percent, they'll get possession that way. They also have a terrific pass rush, tied for sixth in the NFL with 26 sacks. No team except for the Cardinals have surrendered more sacks than the 49ers.

    San Francisco will attempt to pound the rock, of course, and the team will actually have some success in that regard. The Bears have yielded 270 rushing yards the past two weeks. As with Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, another aging linebacker, has been abused in run support. Perhaps his knee injury is still lingering, but it's not looking good for his future prospects, as he happens to be a free agent after the season.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler's status is still in the air, but Adam Schefter and Howard Eskin both reported Tuesday that the Bears are "not overly optimistic" about Cutler's availability. Cutler could be cleared in the next couple of days, but it's much more likely that Jason Campbell will have to start at San Francisco.

    Campbell was awful in the second half against the Texans. He barely bothered to look downfield, settling mostly for checkdowns. This is a good way to take care of the football, but it's not going to move the chains, especially against a defense that happens to be ranked No. 4 against the pass (5.97 YPA).

    I think the Bears would actually be able to run the ball if Jay Cutler were under center. We've seen the Giants, Seahawks and Rams all gash San Francisco on the ground in the past month. However, the 49ers won't exactly have to worry about Campbell's ability to get the ball downfield to Brandon Marshall, so they'll be able to stack the line of scrimmage and put the clamps on Matt Forte.

    RECAP: There's no line on this game yet because Cutler's status is unknown. I'm tentatively taking the points, but I'll have a pick for you once a spread is available.

    SATURDAY THOUGHTS: Just post a freaking line, Vegas. There's no difference between Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.

    LINE POSTED: The 49ers opened at -7. I'll have a pick posted Monday.

    PICK POSTED: Damn it. I was going to make a decent-sized play on the Bears (3 units?) had Alex Smith been cleared to play, but that's not the case. With Smith out, the 49ers will be just as tuned in as the Bears. I'd still like Chicago if the spred was still +6.5 or so, but it's dropped to +3.5. There's no way in hell Smith is three points better than Colin Kaepernick, so we've lost all line value. I'm still taking the Bears, but for only one unit.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both quarterbacks are out, so the two teams will be playing extra hard.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (44,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bears are 27-16 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Lovie Smith is 6-3 ATS as an underdog following a loss as a favorite.
  • 49ers are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: .

    Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 22
    Bears +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 34 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    49ers 32, Bears 7

    Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Dolphins at Bills, Cardinals at Falcons, Browns at Cowboys, Jaguars at Texans, Jets at Rams, Eagles at Redskins, Buccaneers at Panthers, Packers at Lions, Bengals at Chiefs

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Moneyline Underdog: Eagles +170 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline Underdog: Steelers +150 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50

    Leave a comment

    click on image to refresh it
    12th man 09-29-2012 12:08 pm (total posts: 17)
    10     6

    I dont know who Fitzgerald is, but Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hasnt thrown an INT since the opener and has 8 TD passes since. The Ralph is the ultimate factor in this contest so I dont know about the Pats "winning comfortably."
    GStar 09-29-2012 12:05 pm (total posts: 3)
    4     6

    Picked up 2 units on the CFL game but lost of BYU (should have followed my gut).

    For CFL tonight i like Winnipeg -2.5.

    For NFL I'm looking at Chargers -1.5 and maybe Texans -12.5.
    GURUBALL 09-29-2012 11:54 am (total posts: 261)
    23     5


    (IOWA UNDER 47) 15 UNITS
    (PENN ST UNDER 41.5) 7 UNITS

    Jmac 09-29-2012 10:58 am (total posts: 229)
    10     6

    Georgia tech over 62
    Redemption time
    chuckster 09-29-2012 09:03 am (total posts: 48)
    7     7

    Three team 10 point teaser with Ravens -2 (winner), Patriots +6 and Texans -2. If those one o'clock games come through then will explore four o'clock games and maybe even the evening contests. Congrats to all winners and continued good luck to everyone.
    freefootballguru 09-29-2012 08:10 am (total posts: 6)
    9     8


    A couple of possible NCAA upsets today

    Missouri @ Central Florida

    Mizzu been playing tough competition and has the talent to pull the minor upset.

    Clemson @ Boston College

    Clemson could be flat after tough loss to FSU. Sammy Watkins not playing, fishy reverse line movement. Could be an upset brewing.
    koon 09-29-2012 03:01 am (total posts: 1)
    10     7

    Just some of my opinions on a couple games.

    I think houston will easily cover by 2 touchdowns. Walter has said he thinks the titans have cleaned things up; that is partially true but lets not forget almost all their points came off of big plays last week. I think the sample size is to small to start calling them underrated. Against a solid secondary with a dline that can put pressure on the qb they will struggle. Im not going to bet the spread because that is a large one but will include them in my teaser.

    The second part of my teaser will consist of the 49rs. I am a strong believer to bet on strong teams following a loss. The niners will be geared up as everyone is doubting them again and we all know they play best when they are doubted. In addition sanchez is going to struggle big time so if Smith doesn't get it going the 49rs d will turn turnovers into points.

    Big play houston,niners 6 point teaser
    Kyle 09-29-2012 12:08 am (total posts: 245)
    5     6

    Starting QB...who the hell needs one? Apparently NOT BYU to cover easily over Hawaii.
    Dear Walt 09-28-2012 10:24 pm (total posts: 6)
    10     7

    I'm not sure where you got the trend about a quarterback who hasn't thrown an interception in two consecutive victories is 0-18 ATS the spread in September, but I did some research and that trend is incorrect. Matt Schaub won his first two games this year without throwing an interception, yet STILL covered the spread against the Broncos last week. Trend busted.
    ziffle60 09-28-2012 09:36 pm (total posts: 2)
    5     7

    Nero 09-28-2012 08:38 pm (total posts: 1)
    10     126

    New England -3.5
    My strongest play this week. Brady is going to take care of the ball, Fitzgerald is not. New England will win confortably.

    Atlanta -7.5
    The Falcons have been feasting off turnovers. Cam will oblige. The Falcons are going to score plenty.

    Houston -12
    The Texans have had their way with mediocre competition. In comes Tennessee who are a notch below mediocre. The Titans win over Detroit was quite fluky. Detroit was the better team by far, but too error prone. The Titans will not be so lucky against the Texans.

    Jacksonville +3
    The Jags should have no shame in losing to the underrated Vikings on the road and to the Texans. The were able to squeak by in a road win at Indy. Now they face a very simalarly talented Bengal team at their place. The Jags should be favored. Jones-Drew has a big day. Jags win.
    byu qb not playing 09-28-2012 07:34 pm (total posts: 5)
    7     7

    byu starting qb not playing
    sandman 09-28-2012 07:33 pm (total posts: 4)
    9     13

    my best picks

    ATL-7 ARI-5.5
    NE-3.5 GB-7.5
    SD-1 CIN-1.5

    born2gamble 09-28-2012 06:07 pm (total posts: 2)
    72     34

    Now we know why the chargers point spread is all over the place...they are going to win easily!....Enjoy thr free info

    Other ATS Top Play: San Diego +1 @ Kansas City (Covers 58.5%)

    In Norv we do or do not trust? Apparently, it depends on the situation. This is our fourth-straight "normal" opinion and third consecutive Paul's Pick involving the Chargers' game (we hit the Paul's Picks in each of the last two games by a combined 48.5 points). In each of San Diego's games thus far, we have literally alternated picking against and for them. This week, we like the Chargers' chances to go into Kansas City and win outright as underdogs.

    With a team this volatile, matchups mean almost everything. Against the elite teams, like Atlanta, San Diego will struggle mightily. Against the weaker teams, like Tennessee and Kansas City, San Diego can put up big numbers. Last season, against teams that went on to make the playoffs, the Chargers were 2-4 and lost by an average margin of 13 points. Against teams that did not make the playoffs last season, San Diego was 6-4 and won by an average margin of 13.8 points (including finishing the season with three straight wins against bad teams in which the Chargers scored at least 37 points and won by double-digits - kind of like what happened against Tennessee two weeks ago).

    Even after a win over New Orleans last week, Kansas City is not likely on its way to the playoffs (we only give the Chiefs a 14.2% chance of reaching the postseason). Moreover, Kansas City currently ranks 25th in our power rankings. The Chiefs, behind the breakout performance by Jamaal Charles last week, rank third in the league in offensive rush efficiency. They rank in the bottom five in every other category from our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. With a rebuilt defense this season, the Chargers actually rank as a top five defensive team and are better against the run than the pass. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense should be as healthy as it has been all season when it heads to Kansas City and it should look it against a defense that has allowed 33 points-per-game through three games.
    born2gamble 09-28-2012 06:00 pm (total posts: 2)
    21     12

    Here you go boys....these "locks of the week are 3-0 so far this season....enjoy!

    ATS Lock of the Week: Cincinnati -2 @ Jacksonville (Covers 59.4%)

    We had to know this was coming. With the obvious publicity and attention paid to the replacement referee situation and the, likely related, strong recent performances of home underdogs (which are 10-3 straight-up in the last two weeks), it's not a surprise to see what appears to be an over-correction by the market and a lot of value in road teams against short lines.

    In the strongest play, Cincinnati happens to actually be favored in this game, yet should win more comfortably than just the two point line would suggest. This situation looks very similar to one of the strongest NFL plays that we have ever had on the site when the Bengals traveled to Carolina in Week 3 of 2010 as less than three point favorites against one of the weakest teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's defense dominated the game over Jimmy Clausen and the Panthers in a 20-7 victory. Zimmer and his new, young, incredibly deep and athletic defense (especially on the line where Carlos Dunlap's health appeared to make the difference in last week's game in Washington) will look to do something similar against another young, unproven quarterback in Jacksonville.

    Coming off of two straight wins, Cincinnati ranks 14th in our most recent NFL Power Rankings. Cincinnati has an above average offense and defense and is actually in line for another playoff performance if our most likely postseason scenario holds. For the Bengals to make a run at the postseason, this is the kind of game that Cincinnati will all but have to win.

    Jacksonville scored a last minute victory over Indianapolis to avoid falling to 0-3 last week. Still, the Jaguars rank just 30th in our power rankings (the only team from last week's bottom four that is still in this week's bottom four) and have the third-worst overall offense to go with a below average defense against the run and the pass. In their previous home game, Jacksonville hosted Houston, its only game thus far against a team we projected to win six or more games before the season, and lost 27-7.

    With the situation the way it is right now, it's okay to pick for the elite teams on the road or against the very bad teams at home. It's everything in between where home field advantage is winning out. This is not one of those games in between. Jacksonville is very bad (especially at home) and Cincinnati is at least heading in the direction of elite (while the ETA for the Bengals as an elite team is probably 2013, the talent level is there right now and it is much greater than the Jaguars).

    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 24

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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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