NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)

NFL Picks (2012): 76-83-3 (-$280)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 11:59 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)
Line: Saints by 5. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -3.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 11 has been posted – Eric Mangini and Asian Erin Andrews’ wedding!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Do I even have to talk about how things will work on this side of the ball? Well, I suppose I could use this space to criticize the lack of effort the Raiders gave against Baltimore. That was so unbelievably pathetic. I couldn’t believe what I was watching. Guys like Tommy Kelly and Philip Wheeler just gave up. Kelly, who should have been cut months ago, offered up this gem earlier this week:

Nice job, Tommy. Way to give yourself an excuse when the interior of New Orleans’ offensive line destroys you.

Drew Brees won’t have any issues scoring in this contest. Oakland’s secondary, which is missing starting cornerback Shawntae Spencer, doesn’t have a chance. Hopefully Richard Seymour will be back; he was out last week with a hamstring. His return could at least limit the Saints’ rushing attack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Saints will be scoring on nearly every possession, but the same could be said for the Raiders. New Orleans’ has one of the worst defenses of all time. Every quarterback has looked great against them this year, and Carson Palmer should be no exception. Palmer’s downfield weapons are too talented for the Saints to handle.

The Raiders will get a boost this week, as right tackle Khalif Barnes will return to the lineup for the first time since Week 2. I know, it’s difficult to say Barnes’ name and “boost” in the same sentence, but he’s a billion times better than his replacement, Willie Smith. Barnes should help keep Palmer clean against a pass rush that has just 14 sacks on the year if you exclude what happened two Monday nights ago against Philadelphia’s terrible front line.

Unfortunately for Oakland, Darren McFadden will not be back. Neither will Mike Goodson. Marcel Reece will see the majority of the workload again. He’ll be effective as a receiver, but he’s not good enough of a runner to exploit the Saints. Thus, it’ll be difficult for the Raiders to score touchdowns once they reach the red zone, which has actually been the case all year. While the Saints are notching sevens, the Raiders will only be getting threes, and that will be the difference in this game.

RECAP: This is a terrible spot for the Saints and a great situation for the Raiders. Here’s why I love the home underdog:

1. New Orleans is coming off an emotional victory against the Falcons and will be flat, especially with the 49ers, Falcons, Giants, Buccaneers and Cowboys coming up.

2. The Raiders just endured a spread loss of 25-plus, which is usually a bet-on situation. Teams that are blown out tend to be embarrassed, so they play extra hard the following week. Forget Terrell Williams’ 4-year-old son; this week, Oakland is playing for pride.

3. The public is pounding New Orleans like there’s no tomorrow. Vegas has to recoup its losses from two weeks ago.

4. The Saints are not the same team out of their dome. Brees has covered just four of his previous 13 as a road favorite of more than four points.

5. There’s good line value with the Raiders. They were +3 prior to last week, but now the spread has moved to +4.5 (though it’s worth noting that it opened at +6.5).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like that Richard Seymour is out, but there’s just too much going in the Raiders’ favor for me to move off the three-unit pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Saints are coming off an emotional win. Also, check out their next five opponents: 49ers, Falcons, Giants, Tampa Bay and Dallas.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Predictably, everyone is on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 90% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 32-19 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Raiders are 5-25 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Raiders 30
Raiders +5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 55.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Raiders 17

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -9.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Jerks of the Week for Nov. 12, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are the Blonde Kid, Gay Tea Time James, Lisa Turtle (from Saved by the Bell) and Howard Eskin.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As you may have seen earlier, one of the many posters who got mad at me for my NFL Power Rankings complained that I had the Colts way too low because Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the NFL since John Elway. I wouldn’t go that far yet, but Luck has certainly been impressive, particularly in terms of using his legs and picking up third-down conversions.

Luck seemingly has an easy matchup versus the Patriots. After all, the Bills went up and down the field against them, and they have a worse quarterback with inferior weapons (Buffalo doesn’t use C.J. Spiller) at his disposal. If you listened to Monday’s B.S. Report, Bill Simmons complained about the lack of talent on defense, shouting, “Everyone they bring in sucks!” So, Luck should have no issues engineering scoring drives all evening, correct?

Well, there’s one thing the Sports Guy forgot, and that’s Aqib Talib’s return. Talib, acquired from Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago, is a legitimate shutdown cornerback. If Talib takes away Reggie Wayne – and I don’t see why he wouldn’t – whom will Luck rely on? Luck’s only hope is that his team establishes a solid ground attack, which is possible, given that the Patriots have surrendered 4.5 YPC in their previous four games.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Patriots have one of the top offenses in the league. Is there any way Indianapolis can contain New England?

In a word, no. Not unless the Patriots are completely sloppy with the football, and considering they have the least turnovers in the NFL, that’s unlikely to happen.

The Colts can’t stop the run, so New England will get Stevan Ridley going. This will set up Tom Brady in easy passing downs. The Colts will have Robert Mathis back in the lineup to help pressure Brady, but the Patriot All-Pro signal-caller simply has too many weapons at his disposal for Indianapolis to handle – especially if Aaron Hernandez returns from injury. And once New England reaches the red zone? Forget about it. The Patriots have been razor-sharp inside the red zone recently, while Indianapolis has the seventh-worst defensive unit in that area.

RECAP: The Patriots suck as big home favorites, and teams in general tend to struggle when laying points prior to a Thursday contest. So, under normal circumstances, I’d take the Colts for a couple of units, but there are a couple of things holding me back:

1. I feel like people are underestimating Talib’s return to the lineup. Simmons, a Patriot homer, didn’t even mention him. There’s such overreaction to New England’s near-loss that it could motivate the team. Remember the last time the Patriots almost fell to a divisional foe? They went on to destroy the Rams the following week.

2. Brady is an egomaniac who wants all of the attention. He absolutely hated Tim Tebow getting all of the headlines, which is why he was locked into F-U mode in two battles against Denver last year. Now, everyone’s talking about how Luck is so awesome. Brady will want the media focused on him and his pretty hair again, so he’ll have that F-U mode look in his eyes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. This is a coin flip.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

This is a meaningless game for the Patriots, who have to play in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 51% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-9 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Tom Brady is 141-47 as a starter (109-75 ATS).

Tom Brady is 17-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (7-19 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Colts 26
Colts +9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 59, Colts 24

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Broncos -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Broncos -7.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

In addition to being a successful rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson is also in the Lord of the Rings, apparently.

I like how Kyle took me seriously.

Someone who takes this a little too seriously is Maury Balmer. People took turns criticizing our English in this thread:

You can tell someone’s very mature when they respond to you by calling you “fagit.”

Meanwhile, Patty Cake thinks I need to see a specialist:

Oh, and I’m sure you guys aren’t surprised by Migelini’s political views:

I’m upset that a post was deleted in that thread. Some girl named Jackie wrote this long rant about this country failing because idiots like myself voting multiple times for Barack Obama.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Things haven’t been going so well for Philip Rivers lately. Back in Week 6, he had that epic meltdown on Monday Night Football. After the bye, he lost to the Browns, thanks in part to a dropped Robert Meachem touchdown. He then had a decent performance against the Chiefs, but then tossed a dumb, game-clinching pick, prompting Norv Turner to freak out at the post-game press conference.

Rivers hasn’t played well since Week 2 of the 2010 season when he suffered a shoulder injury at New England. I don’t know if it’s lingering or not, but it’s certainly not the cause for Rivers’ poor decision-making. Perhaps if Rivers had better talent around him… Left tackle Jared Gaither has been in and out of the lineup with his chronic back problems; Meachem has finally been displaced by Danario Alexander, but he has to deal with Champ Bailey this week; while the oft-injured Ryan Mathews fumbles when he’s not picking up meaningless three-yard gains on every play.

The Broncos have been so much better defensively since the bye. Young corners Tony Carter and Chris Harris have stepped up, which has helped the pass rush accumulate a mind-boggling 17 sacks in its previous four games, including four against the Bastard of the Trident back in Week 6. San Diego’s offensive line simply won’t be able to block Denver, while Rivers’ receivers won’t be able to get open. It’s a recipe for disaster.

DENVER OFFENSE: San Diego’s secondary has not looked good when battling top competition this year. For example, Peyton Manning went 24-of-30 for 309 yards, three touchdowns and an interception that wasn’t his fault in that Week 6 meeting. Manning remarkably led the Broncos into the end zone on every single second-half possession, save for one drive in which Eric Decker was whistled for a bogus offensive pass interference that wiped out a long reception.

Nothing has really changed since then. Josh Freeman just torched the Chargers this past weekend, so why can’t Manning do the same thing, especially now that he’s five weeks healthier than he was in the middle of October? San Diego has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL, while Denver has the No. 2 red-zone offense (behind New Orleans). How in the world are the Chargers going to stop the Broncos?

The one hope San Diego has is to collect turnovers. Willis McGahee and Demaryius Thomas have been sloppy with the ball this year, so the Chargers better be ready to pounce on a fumble.

RECAP: This is a complete mismatch on paper in Denver’s favor. That’s one of the reasons why I like the Chargers. Teams with double-star game edges haven’t done well this year (check below the comment board for specifics).

Other reasons to take San Diego:

1. The Chargers’ season is on the line. In fact, the entire front office’s job is on the line. A loss here would knock San Diego out of the playoff race, and if owner Alex Spanos is actually paying attention to his team for once, he could decide to fire A.J. Smith and the Norval. The Chargers are home favorites next week, so they have nothing else to worry about. This is the ultimate do-or-die for them.

2. I love betting on road underdogs immediately following a road loss. This dynamic covers 67 percent of the time.

3. The Norval isn’t a good head coach, but something he does well is cover the spread in same-season revenge situations (see trends below). SURVIVOR PICK: Though I have the Chargers covering, the Broncos are the top survival option I have available this week. My top survivor teams are the Texans, Falcons, Patriots and Broncos, but I’ve already used the top three. Dallas would be a distant fifth.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this to one unit because of Jared Gaither being out.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No one wants to bet on Philip Rivers over Peyton Manning? Why?

Percentage of money on Denver: 69% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.

Philip Rivers is 15-11 ATS as an underdog.

Norv Turner is 5-1 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 20
Chargers +7.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 30, Chargers 23

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Steelers -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Steelers -4.5 (Roethlisberger) or Ravens -1 (Leftwich).
Sunday, Nov. 18, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron. Here’s another post from Victor Valentino:

Ah, I miss the racism from the old GameCenter. I also miss the perverts. Here’s Aaron having an exchange with me:

Aaron then tried getting nacked pictures from someone else:

And I’m being a good samaritan here. I just saved Armon Rose:

I hope someone says yes eventually. If so, I’ll post their “nacked” and bikini pictures.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game. In fact, he could be gone for quite awhile. Byron Leftwich will start for the first time since 2009 when he was with the Buccaneers.

Is this a recipe for disaster? Most people seem to think so. Bettors are pounding the Ravens like there’s no tomorrow, and you can’t exactly blame them if you saw Leftwich’s painfully long delivery against the Chiefs on Monday night. This will be problematic against defenses that put heavy pressure on the quarterback. I guess it’s a good thing for Pittsburgh that Baltimore doesn’t do this. The Ravens rank in the bottom 10 in terms of sacks, mustering just 16 on the season.

Baltimore also struggles versus the run. This is well-documented. The team put the clamps on Oakland’s ground attack, but only because the Raiders had their third-string runner in the game. The Steelers, who figure to have Rashard Mendenhall back in the lineup, pound the rock much better than Oakland. They will pick up big chunks of yardage that way, giving Leftwich short-yardage situations to work with.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As with its offense, Pittsburgh’s defense is dealing with injuries. Troy Polamalu has been out since the second half of Week 5. Now, fellow safety Ryan Clark will also be missing from the lineup because of a concussion.

Joe Flacco has to be loving this. He rebounded from a pedestrian performance at Cleveland to torch the Raiders, and he should be able to pick up right where he left off against the Steelers’ battered secondary. Flacco had issues with Pittsburgh early in his career, but he was 45-of-76, 524 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in two meetings against his arch rival last year.

If you watched the most recent Monday night contest, you saw the Chiefs completely trample the Steelers on the ground, as Jamaal Charles picked up 100 rushing yards on 23 carries. Ray Rice is a similar runner, though he’s often constricted by Cam Cameron’s moronic game plans. If Cameron wises up and gives Rice the appropriate amount of touches, the Ravens should be able to control the time of possession and score on most of their drives. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

RECAP: One thing I love to do is bet on good teams missing their starting quarterback. Good teams – the Steelers certainly fit into that pantheon – often step up and give 110 percent, as the players know they need to do so to overcome adversity. The opposition, meanwhile, takes its foe lightly because the starting signal-caller is out. That would explain why the Steelers are 5-2 against the spread when Roethlisbeger misses his first non-Week 17 game.

With the public all over the Ravens, I’m going with Pittsburgh as an enticing home underdog. I was going to bet three units on the Steelers +2.5 when I was looking at this game Tuesday night, but the spread has risen to +3.5. That’s just a complete overreaction line. I’m bumping it to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Steelers a lot, but this spread has dropped to +3. There also isn’t as much betting action on Baltimore. I’m moving this to three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Steelers will be giving 110 percent with Big Ben out.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Everyone is pounding the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 73% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 21 meetings (Flacco 2-6 vs. Roethlisberger).

Steelers are 5-2 ATS when Ben Roethlisbeger misses his first non-Week 17 game.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 13
Steelers +3 (3 Units) — Push; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 13, Steelers 10

Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 34.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): 49ers -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): 49ers -3 (Cutler & Kaepernick) or 49ers -4 (Cutler & Smith) or 49ers -6 (Campbell & Kaepernick) or 49ers -7 (Campbell & Smith).
Monday, Nov. 19, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, the gayest city of the world. Guys… wait, where is everyone? Emmitt, it’s just you, me and Griese.

Emmitt: Rick, to tell you the… uhh… not the false, I’m not surprise that nobody showned up. San Francisco home of all the homophobe, and people who scare of homophobe are call heterophobe, and heterophobe do not like to comed to San Francisco.

Reilly: This is true, Emmitt. The only reason I’m here is because they forced me. Well, I guess we won’t have much of a pre-game show for you guys, unless you have something insightful to say about this game, Griese.

Griese: Weh? There’s a game? Who’s playing?

Reilly: And that’s all there is to say about that. So, I guess stay tuned… wait, I’m getting a call. Hello? Hi, Tolly! Hey, Emmitt’s it’s Don Tollefson! Sure, I’ll say hi for you. Tolly, where are you? Oh… afraid of getting hit on by the homos in San Francisco? Yeah, I understand. I’m just disappointed that you couldn’t make it because I would’ve loved to make fun of them with you, Tolly. OK, I’ll tell him, Tolly. See ya.

Emmitt: Who calleded you, Mike?

Reilly: Emmitt, that was Tolly. He says hello. He also told me to make sure that you cover up your anus while in San Francisco as a safety precaution.

Emmitt: That is good advicement in the land of homophobe.

Reilly: Yup. Now, I guess stay tuned for… hey, what the hell is under the desk? Holy crap, it’s Matt Millen!

Millen: Uuuuuuuhhhh… where am I?

Reilly: San Francisco. We’re about to broadcast a game!

Millen: Ohhh man, I’m so not ready for this.

Reilly: What happened?

Millen: We had a huge kielbasa party Wednesday night. As you may know, San Francisco is the kielbasa capital of the world. We had 30,000 people here at the stadium. It was wild – the party went on for three straight days. I must have slept for more than 36 hours if it’s Monday night already. Kevin, let me tell you, I’ve never had so many kielbasas shoved into my…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Alex Smith has been cleared for non-contact drills, so it’s looking like he’ll start against the Bears. I was actually hoping that Smith would sit out a game so we could see more of Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco fans should probably want the same thing. Smith has limitations, while Kaepernick has way more potential. He’s just raw because of inexperience. I feel like the 49ers can actually win a Super Bowl if Jim Harbaugh continues to develop Kaepernick. Smith, on the other hand, probably can’t lead his team to the Promised Land.

It’ll be extremely difficult for the 49ers to move the chains in this contest. The Bears have an awesome defense that is incredibly difficult to throw against. They also create tons of turnovers, so if Smith isn’t 100 percent, they’ll get possession that way. They also have a terrific pass rush, tied for sixth in the NFL with 26 sacks. No team except for the Cardinals have surrendered more sacks than the 49ers.

San Francisco will attempt to pound the rock, of course, and the team will actually have some success in that regard. The Bears have yielded 270 rushing yards the past two weeks. As with Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, another aging linebacker, has been abused in run support. Perhaps his knee injury is still lingering, but it’s not looking good for his future prospects, as he happens to be a free agent after the season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler’s status is still in the air, but Adam Schefter and Howard Eskin both reported Tuesday that the Bears are “not overly optimistic” about Cutler’s availability. Cutler could be cleared in the next couple of days, but it’s much more likely that Jason Campbell will have to start at San Francisco.

Campbell was awful in the second half against the Texans. He barely bothered to look downfield, settling mostly for checkdowns. This is a good way to take care of the football, but it’s not going to move the chains, especially against a defense that happens to be ranked No. 4 against the pass (5.97 YPA).

I think the Bears would actually be able to run the ball if Jay Cutler were under center. We’ve seen the Giants, Seahawks and Rams all gash San Francisco on the ground in the past month. However, the 49ers won’t exactly have to worry about Campbell’s ability to get the ball downfield to Brandon Marshall, so they’ll be able to stack the line of scrimmage and put the clamps on Matt Forte.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game yet because Cutler’s status is unknown. I’m tentatively taking the points, but I’ll have a pick for you once a spread is available.

SATURDAY THOUGHTS: Just post a freaking line, Vegas. There’s no difference between Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.

LINE POSTED: The 49ers opened at -7. I’ll have a pick posted Monday.

PICK POSTED: Damn it. I was going to make a decent-sized play on the Bears (3 units?) had Alex Smith been cleared to play, but that’s not the case. With Smith out, the 49ers will be just as tuned in as the Bears. I’d still like Chicago if the spred was still +6.5 or so, but it’s dropped to +3.5. There’s no way in hell Smith is three points better than Colin Kaepernick, so we’ve lost all line value. I’m still taking the Bears, but for only one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both quarterbacks are out, so the two teams will be playing extra hard.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bears are 27-16 ATS in November since 2001.

Lovie Smith is 6-3 ATS as an underdog following a loss as a favorite.

49ers are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 22
Bears +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 34 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 32, Bears 7

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Dolphins at Bills, Cardinals at Falcons, Browns at Cowboys, Jaguars at Texans, Jets at Rams, Eagles at Redskins, Buccaneers at Panthers, Packers at Lions, Bengals at Chiefs

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Eagles +170 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Steelers +150 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)