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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2010



NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)

NFL Picks (2010): 24-21-2 (+$495)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Sept. 20, 4:25 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks - Early Games



Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Broncos -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Broncos -3.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Two opportunities to win money, if you're into that sort of thing:

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It's free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 1,087 entries remaining out of 1,946, thanks to the Chargers and 49ers blowing it. The lesson as always, don't pick a road team in a survivor pool.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Beginning with the team that eliminated many survivor contestants... umm... where the hell did this come from? Matt Hasselbeck looked healthy and great. Mike Williams wreaked havoc on the opposing secondary. Deion Branch caught a touchdown. The Seahawks were partying like it was 2005 last Sunday.

Was this for real, or a Week 1 mirage? Quite honestly, I'm not sure - and I don't think we'll have a definitive answer after this game either. The reason? Because Denver's defense is a disgrace.

With Elvis Dumervil out, the Broncos struggled to get pressure on the Jaguars; they had just one sack (Robert Ayers) and 10 pressures on David Garrard in the opener. This allowed Garrard to throw for a sterling YPA of 8.1. Run defense, meanwhile, was also an issue; Jamal Williams played poorly, allowing Jacksonville to gain 4.6 yards per carry.

The Seahawks won't have their awesome fans cheering them on this time, but they should still be able to move the chains consistently on Denver. Champ Bailey will wipe out Williams, but Hasselbeck can still throw to Branch, the emerging Deon Butler, John Carlson and Justin Forsett coming out of the backfield.

DENVER OFFENSE: While the performance of Seattle's offense was surprising, the bigger shock was watching the Seahawks contain the 49ers to just 49 rushing yards and pressure Alex Smith enough to force him into numerous poor decisions.

Kyle Orton doesn't make the same mistakes Smith does, but his offensive line isn't very good either. Center J.D. Walton and right tackle Zane Beadles were completely overwhelmed in their first career starts against a Jaguar team not known for bringing much pressure. It can only get better for the two rookie linemen, but a week is too short a period of time to see a big improvement.

A week ago, I liked Frank Gore to have a huge game against the Seahawks. He didn't. If Gore couldn't run on this defense, I don't expect Knowshon Moreno to have much success either.

RECAP: Two contradicting trends - the Broncos suck as favorites (1-11 ATS as -3.5 or more since 2008), while the Seahawks stink on the road (5-11 ATS since 2008).

Let's look at that second trend. Seattle's 11 road spread losses came against the 49ers (2009), Colts, Cowboys (twice), Cardinals (twice), Vikings, Texans, Packers, Bills (they were decent in 2008) and Giants. Their five road spread wins came against the Rams (twice), Buccaneers, 49ers (2008) and Dolphins.

The Seahawks struggle against elite teams away from home, but have proven that they can beat mediocre to crappy squads on the road. Based on how the Broncos have looked thus far, it's pretty evident which group they belong to.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
All aboard the Seahawks bandwagon! OK, maybe not.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 55% (60,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Seahawks are 11-23 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Broncos are 19-11 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 30 instances.
  • Broncos are 9-26 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Broncos are 8-15 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Broncos are 1-11 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008. ???
  • Opening Line: Broncos -3.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Broncos 23
    Seahawks +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 40 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Broncos 31, Seahawks 14



    St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)
    Line: Raiders by 3.5. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Raiders -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Raiders -7.
    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:05 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Raiders.

    If you didn't see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 3, Episode 1 has been posted - The Patriots kick off the 2015 NFL season against the Dolphins, but didn't have their new offensive coordinator (Eric Mangini) because he was arrested. Episode 2 will be posted this weekend.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: Can the Raiders be more pathetic? From botched snaps, to fumbles, to sacks - the offense was a mess. The good news is that they don't have to play Tennessee's monstrous defensive line this week. The bad news is that Chris Long and St. Louis defensive front did a great job of pressuring Derek Anderson last Sunday, so this game is definitely not going to be a cakewalk.

    With all of the Raiders' issues in pass protection, they have to establish the run. The Cardinals were able to do this quite easily with Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling. On one drive late in the second quarter, Arizona ripped off consecutive runs of 21 (Howling), 15 (Howling), 19 (Hightower), 20 (Hightower) and one for a touchdown (Hightower).

    Darren McFadden, who totaled 95 yards on 18 carries against the Titans, has to be licking his chops.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: It was pretty surprising that Sam Bradford attempted 55 passes in his NFL debut. Bradford himself said he was shocked. But he played very well, going 32-of-55 for 253 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions (two of which were made late in desperation mode).

    However, that was at home. Playing on the road is a completely different animal for a rookie, especially with Nnamdi Asomugha lurking in the defensive backfield.

    The Rams will have to establish Steven Jackson to keep Bradford out of dangerous third-and-long situations. Jackson looked great against the Cardinals, but faces a tough challenge this week against an underrated Oakland stop unit that had Chris Johnson bottled up until the second half.

    RECAP: A week ago, this line would have Raiders -7 to -9. They played so poorly that the spread has dropped to -4, destroying all value with the Rams.

    Despite the skewed line I still like St. Louis to cover. I cannot, under any circumstances, lay points with the Raiders, who are 0-8 against the spread as favorites since 2006.

    I loved the thought of getting the Rams at +6 or +7, but this spread is unfortunately too low to warrant a multi-unit wager.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Close to equal action. No one wants any part of these teams.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 57% (57,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Rams are 23-40 ATS in road games since 2001 (4-4 in 2009).
  • Rams are 14-27 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Raiders are 11-29 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 14-32 ATS at home the previous 46 instances.
  • Raiders are 4-18 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.
  • Raiders are 0-8 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Raiders 13, Rams 12
    Rams +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 37.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Raiders 16, Rams 14





    New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (0-1)
    Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Jets -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Patriots -1.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:15 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 13, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) BBall Mad Man. 2) BBall DBag/AHole. 3) Whiskey Tango Marriage.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Remember back in January, when Mark Sanchez looked like he was taking the next step, and Shonn Greene was running all over everyone? The future was really bright for the Jets. Well, it's amazing how much can change in the span of nine months.

    First with Sanchez, his inability to read defenses is alarming, and he just seems way too scared to take a shot downfield. Bill Belichick's palms have to be sweating in anticipation of being able to confuse QB Nacho again; the last time Sanchez battled the Patriots, he was just 8-of-21 for 136 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Based on how dominant New England's defense was in the first half of its opener against Carson Palmer, Sanchez could be in for another very long day.

    As for Greene, he fumbled his way off the field Monday night. After his second fumble, he barely saw any playing time. When he did get another chance, he dropped an easy pass. The good news for the Jets is that LaDainian Tomlinson has somehow regained his burst and quickness. However, the Patriots shut down Cincinnati's rushing attack last week, limiting the Bengals to 3.7 yards per carry. They should be able to contain Tomlinson as well.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady struggled against Rex Ryan's defense the first time he saw it last year, but figured it out the second occasion, going 28-of-41 for 310 yards and a touchdown. Brady wasn't even completely healthy in that contest coming off a nasty ACL tear, so he should have another big game.

    The same can't be said for Randy Moss. Darrelle Revis will shut him down, so look for Brady to utilize his other talented weapons more often.

    RECAP: All offseason, Brady and Belichick have been hearing about how awesome the Jets are. They listened to NFL analysts pick the Jets to win the AFC East and advance to the Super Bowl. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for New England.

    And think about the spread this way: All Brady has to do is win. The line is -2, so you basically have to choose a straight-up wager between Brady and Sanchez. That really is a no-brainer.


    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    Respect. Everyone has been saying the Jets are going to Super Bowl. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still in F-U mode.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
    No shock that the public loves the Patriots after the Jets' Monday night futility.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 86% (132,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Patriots are 29-17 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 109-36 as a starter (85-57 ATS).
  • Jets are 5-10 ATS in September home games since 2000 (2-0 in 2009).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -1.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Jets 10
    Patriots -3 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 38.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jets 28, Patriots 14





    Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-1)
    Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Chargers -10.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Chargers -10.
    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:15 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Chargers.

    It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

    1. "Kolb is going to blow this year. McNabb was mot the problem Andy is. Hes a couch that can get to the playoffs but won't ever win a superbowl. Hes just like Dan Revees."

    Yep. It's never a good sign when the person calling the shots on the sidelines is a couch.

    2. "IF YOU LIKE VICK......THEN YOU SHOULD R.A.P.E. A KITTEN"

    Don't understand the logic behind this statement, but hey, not that there's anything wrong with that.

    3. "mcnabb is a trader"

    Damn you McNabb and your trading skills!

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Hear that noise in the background? That's Philip Rivers still yelling at his poor center for not snapping the ball and his receivers for running the wrong routes. Rivers seriously needs to chill out before he suffers a stroke. And I don't ever remember Super Bowl champions like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees acting this way.

    I thought the Chargers would be OK with Malcom Floyd as their new No. 1 receiver. Floyd wasn't very good against the Chiefs. The good news though is that Legedu Naanee was pretty solid, and Rivers should be able to continue where he left off on that final drive Monday night. Jacksonville's secondary is an abomination right now. Derek Cox played so terribly against the Broncos that he was benched, and it's not like Denver has stud receivers that he was incapable of defending.

    The Jaguars were able to mask some of their secondary problems with a solid pass rush. Aaron Kampman showed no sign that he was coming off a torn ACL, registering two sacks and three pressures. The Chargers are going to have to double team Kampman because of their left tackle issues.

    San Diego didn't run the ball well on Monday night, averaging just four yards per carry against the Chiefs. The Jaguars limited Denver to 3.6 yards per attempt themselves, so I wouldn't expect Ryan Mathews to have a huge game - Charger fans are just hoping he doesn't have another fumble to set up an easy score for the opposition.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Despite going up against Champ Bailey, David Garrard played very well against the Broncos, going 16-of-21 for 170 yards and three touchdowns. Garrard had only one solid receiver to throw to last season in Mike Sims-Walker, but it really looks like it's helping him that second-year wideout Mike Thomas is stepping up.

    Garrard should have another economical game against the Chargers, who will be too focused on containing Maurice Jones-Drew. MoJo didn't find the end zone last week, but gained 98 yards on 23 attempts. Look for him to have a similar type performance at San Diego - hopefully with a touchdown added on for his fantasy owners.

    RECAP: The Chargers are so renowned for starting slowly that no one is even surprised that they lost to the Chiefs on Monday night. Check out this stat: In Norv Turner's tenure as San Diego's coach, he has only one victory of more than 10 points in any September.

    The line's not 10, but it's close enough. The Chargers aren't playing good football right now and they might be flat off that insane loss, so I'm taking the points.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    The Jaguars are playing a non-divisional opponent, so they may not try hard.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    Early action on the visitor, but it has evened out.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 63% (72,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Jaguars are 5-16 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Norv Turner is 6-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 20
    Jaguars +7 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 38, Jaguars 13





    Houston Texans (1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-0)
    Line: Texans by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Redskins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Redskins -3.
    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:15 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Texans.

    More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

    1. "burnout your stuiped"

    You only get irony like this on the NFL.com GameCenter message boards.

    2. "usally i dont pick toilet bowls such as this but i just can help myself, the browns offence is suspect and questionable were as i just dont know any of the names on the buc's should be a boring 21-7 win for the browns woo....."

    Thank you for gracing us with your pick. You can't name any of the players or spell anything correctly, but we really appreciate your input on this "toilet bowl," especially since you don't usually handicap games like this.

    3. "it's pasted your bedtime...go get your bottle"

    Wow, and here I thought Emmitt Smith was the only person in America who used the past tense of words that were already in the past tense.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: As I wrote in my preseason fantasy football stock reports, "Arian Foster - Australian for Fantasy Stud." I loved Foster going into the season, but I did not expect anything like this. He ripped right through Indianapolis' pathetic defensive line. Matt Schaub didn't even have to pass at all, to the chagrin of his fantasy owners.

    The Redskins have a tougher defense than the Colts, but they had their own problems containing Marion Barber and Felix Jones on Sunday night. Barber and Jones gained 4.9 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively, behind a skeleton-crew offensive line.

    I like Foster to have a big game, which should open up play-action opportunities for Matt Schaub. The Redskins did a great job of generating a pass rush on Tony Romo last week, and while the Texans don't have the offensive line issues the Cowboys do, Washington should still be able to get to Schaub several times.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins couldn't do anything on offense Sunday night. The Cowboys arguably have the best defense in the league, so while the Texans boast a solid stop unit themselves, it'll be a bit easier for Washington to move the chains in this contest.

    If there's one weakness on the Texans, it's the cornerback position. I know that going up against Peyton Manning is a difficult task, but they were particularly unimpressive in the victory - particularly Glover Quin. Donovan McNabb should have more success throwing the ball in this contest.

    The Redskins, however, will be limited by their inability to run the ball and pass protect; their line will have a tough job defending Mario Williams and an improved Amobi Okoye.

    RECAP: The Texans are the better team, but there are three things to consider:

    First, this line is completely inflated. A week ago, the Redskins would have been -2 or -3. Houston being favored by three is a complete overreaction - whether warranted or not.

    Second, the Texans just enjoyed the biggest win in franchise history. How can they possibly match that same intensity against the Redskins?

    And third, Washington offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan held the exact same position with the Texans last year. If there's anyone who knows Schaub's weaknesses, it's the son of Mike Shanahan.

    I'm taking the value with the home dog for a couple of units.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    Kyle Shanahan coached the Texans from 2006 to 2009.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    All aboard the Texans bandwagon!
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 74% (100,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Texans are 16-26 ATS after a win (10-10 since 2007).
  • Redskins are 5-10 ATS in September home games since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Texans -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Redskins 23
    Redskins +3 (2 Units) -- Push; $0
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Texans 30, Redskins 27





    New York Giants (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
    Line: Colts by 5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Colts -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Colts -7.
    Sunday, Sept. 19, 8:20 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    If you've been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you're wondering which players to start, I've got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening. If you have questions on whom to start, consult those rankings. I like to answer e-mails, but I'm receiving so many right now that it's hard to get back to everyone.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Seriously, what was that? The Colts' defense really has to be embarrassed right now. Arian Foster easily trampled their defense for 231 yards on a seven-yard average. Fili Moala, who is starting for some reason, was completely pathetic. Gary Brackett, meanwhile, looked like he ate some doughnuts with the money Bill Polian paid him this offseason.

    I just can't imagine Indianapolis' run defense improving enough a week later to keep Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs from picking up where Foster left off. The two didn't run particularly well against the Panthers, averaging just 3.8 and 3.7 yards per carry, but those numbers are bound to improve after this contest.

    With the Giants' ground attack working well, Eli Manning will move the chains by connecting to Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. The younger Manning in this matchup was prolific against Carolina last week, going 20-of-30 for 263 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions that weren't his fault (deflections). Like Schaub though, he may not even need to throw all that much.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: New York's pass rush is back! After taking a year off, the defensive line is once again terrorizing quarterbacks; it had four sacks in the opener. This is not good news for Peyton Manning, who constantly had defenders in his face at Houston. Bill Polian really let the elder Manning down by not addressing the offensive line in the 2010 NFL Draft (Rodger Saffold, starting for the Rams at left tackle, was available at No. 31).

    Having said all that, the Colts will put points on the board as long as Pierre Garcon doesn't drop too many passes or run too many incorrect routes. Manning and all of his weapons are just too good not to keep pace with the Giants. Just expect more punts than usual from Indianapolis.

    RECAP: Most games are won in the trenches in football, and that's just one area where the Colts are unbelievably weak this season. They still have the best quarterback in football who could easily lead them to 12 wins, but they're not going to cover many large spreads this year against quality opponents. The Giants, without a doubt, are a quality opponent.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game for both teams.


    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    After early action on the Giants, the public is now all over the Colts.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 71% (94,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Giants are 25-10 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Colts are 18-11 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Colts -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Retractable roof.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Giants 24
    Giants +5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Colts 38, Giants 14



    New Orleans Saints (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
    Line: Saints by 6. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 1): Saints -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 1): Saints -4.
    Monday, Sept. 20, 8:30 ET
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    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    It's Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, a wonderful city where guys hit on me all the time! Tonight, we have the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco Giants. Guys, both of these teams have sucked recently. Any chance they make this game remotely interesting?

    Emmitt: Karl, you must not have watched the Super Bowl championship a couple of weeks ago. Or a couple of months, to be more precise. The New Orleans Saint won the Super Bowl championship. Drew Brees made the winnin' throw, and then he grab a little boy from the stand and throw him up in the aerial.

    Reilly: You're saying the Saints won the Super Bowl? I knew that, of course. Now, what about the 49ers? Steve Montana's getting pretty old, Bob.

    Griese: When I was playing football, do you know many quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards?

    Reilly: Who the hell cares? I don't know, like 50?

    Herm: How can there be 50? There can't be 50? There aren't 50 teams in the league! There are less than 50 teams in the NFL! Less than 50 teams! Less than 45! Less than 40! Less than 35! But more than 30 now! There are more than 30 teams in the league now! Is it 31? Too low! Is it 33? Too high! Is it 32? Just right!

    Reilly: Shut up, idiot! You could have just said there were 32 teams in the league.

    Emmitt: Karl, you need to show more respectfulness for Herman Anderson.

    Griese: There were 85 running backs who had more than 4,000 yards when I was playing football!

    Reilly: Bob, no one cares about your stupid stats. Big question, guys: Should I pick the 49ers or Saints in my survivor pool?

    Herm: I'll tell you who to pick! I know who to pick! Let me show you who to pick! I can point to the team you want! With this finger here! Not this finger! Not that finger! Not that finger either! Not the finger on my left hand! Not the thumb on either hand! This finger right here! This finger will show you the way!

    Reilly: You know what, a-hole? I'd rather lose at survivor then take your advice. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell and a couple of other quarterbacks stunk last weekend, but no one was worse than Alex Smith. Smith was 26-of-45 for 225 yards, but tossed two interceptions on a YPA of 5.0 while completing just 57.8 percent of his passes. Unlike those other three quarterbacks, Smith played the entire game and had the players around him to be successful. Instead, he played disgracefully.

    Mike Singletary has to go back to running the football. The Vikings were able to do this against the Saints before ironically getting away from doing so. The Saints surrendered 4.1 yards per carry to Minnesota, so Frank Gore could have a bounce-back performance.

    If Gore can't find any running lanes, the 49ers will be in trouble. If he can though, it'll set Smith up with short-yardage situations that he can then convert to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. Smith looked pretty decent in the preseason playing with Dominique Ziegler and Nate Byham, so let's chalk up last week's performance to being a fluke. I'm not a fan of Smith, but he's not terrible or anything.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I don't know what Sean Payton was thinking at the beginning of the NFL opener, but not using Pierre Thomas at all proved to be a big mistake. Once the Saints became more balanced on offense, they were able to put together more consistent drives against Minnesota. I trust that Payton won't make the same error again.

    San Francisco's defense was awful and lethargic last week. I expect the unit to improve after a lashing from Mike Singletary. But all the effort in the world won't stop Drew Brees. He's just too good and has too many talented weapons around him.

    The only way the 49ers can slow Brees down is by getting to him without blitzing. The Saints are weak at the offensive tackle positions, so this will be possible for some teams. Unfortunately for San Francisco, its defense was able to get to Matt Hasselbeck only once last week, and Hasselbeck was protected by Denver Broncos reject Tyler Polumbus on the blind side.

    RECAP: The 49ers didn't try hard at Seattle. I watched that game until it got out of hand, and all the San Francisco players looked like they were laughing and having a good time, even when the score was 21-6 in the Seahawks' favor.

    Singletary held a meeting as soon as the team plane landed in San Francisco that night, and reportedly called out several players on the team. The 49ers simply were told how great they were all offseason, and they expected that beating the Seahawks was a simple formality. Well, that blowout and the subsequent team meeting was the wake-up call they needed.

    With a rowdy underdog Monday night crowd backing them, the 49ers will put forth a far more emotional performance. I like them to cover the spread, but in the end, beating Brees will prove to be too difficult.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The 49ers were just embarrassed. They'll bring it on a Monday night game against the Super Bowl champs.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    No shock that the public is pounding the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 82% (163,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 47-33 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Saints -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 23
    49ers +6 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 25, 49ers 22



    Week 2 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Dolphins at Vikings, Cardinals at Falcons, Ravens at Bengals, Chiefs at Browns, Bears at Cowboys, Eagles at Lions, Bills at Packers, Steelers at Titans, Buccaneers at Panthers


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Live Dog: Dolphins +210 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$210
  • Live Dog: Buccaneers +165 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$165
  • Small Parlay: Dolphins +6, Ravens -2.5, Lions +6.5, Patriots -3, 49ers +6 (.5 Units to win 11.6) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • 2010 NFL Season Betting Props



    NFL Picks - Sept. 20


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 3-3 (-$170)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 0-2 (-$880)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2014): 8-7-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 2, 2014): -$110

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 23-24-1, 48.9% (-$1,060)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 12-10, 54.5% (+$280)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 18-13-1, 58.1% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$270

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,037-1,868-112, 52.2% (+$11,365)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 656-593-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1559-1550-47 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-1
    Bears: 0-2
    Bucs: 1-1
    49ers: 1-1
    Eagles: 0-2
    Lions: 1-1
    Falcons: 0-2
    Cardinals: 1-1
    Giants: 2-0
    Packers: 1-1
    Panthers: 0-2
    Rams: 1-1
    Redskins: 1-1
    Vikings: 1-1
    Saints: 1-1
    Seahawks: 1-1
    Bills: 1-1
    Bengals: 0-2
    Colts: 0-2
    Broncos: 1-1
    Dolphins: 2-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 0-2
    Chargers: 0-2
    Jets: 1-1
    Ravens: 0-2
    Texans: 2-0
    Chiefs: 2-0
    Patriots: 2-0
    Steelers: 1-1
    Titans: 1-1
    Raiders: 2-0
    Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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