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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2009): 6-10 (-$1,450)

NFL Picks (2009): 125-95-5 (+$6,620)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Dec. 21, 4:45 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks - Early Games



Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at San Diego Chargers (10-3)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 43.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Chargers -6.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Chargers -7.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Jerks of the Week for Dec. 14, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) University of Kansas. 2) Congress Supporters. 3) Communist Kids and Me.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Everyone wants to know what's wrong with Carson Palmer. Well, there are two major issues. First, he has no secondary receiver. Laveranues Coles is awful, so teams are just doubling Chad Ochocinco, leaving Palmer with no one to throw to. Second, Palmer is having issues in pass protection. He has taken nine sacks in the past four games, and he always seems to have pressure in his face.

To take the heat off Palmer, the Bengals will once again pound the rock with Cedric Benson. Benson ran very well at Minnesota, collecting 96 yards on only 16 carries. He should have more success against a Chargers defense that has allowed 4.0, 5.2, 5.0 and 6.8 yards per carry to their previous four opponents (the middle two being Cleveland and Kansas City).

With Benson running well, Palmer should be able to convert his manageable third downs. I'm not expecting a ton of points from Cincinnati's offense, but the team should score enough to hang around.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I can't wait to watch this matchup. The Chargers have the best deep aerial attack in the NFL right now because Philip Rivers is on fire. In his past three games, Rivers has 962 passing yards, five touchdowns and an interception. In that span, he has completed 70.6 percent of his passes for a sterling 11.3 YPA. How is that even possible?

Rivers gets his toughest challenge of the year because Cincinnati's starting corners are very talented. The Bengals have held six consecutive opponents to less than 185 passing yards. It'll be interesting to see if Rivers snaps that trend.

If so, Rivers will have to do it on his own again. LaDainian Tomlinson is looking a bit better and he's king of the 1-yard touchdown right now, but he's still not getting much help from his offensive line. The Bengals have allowed more than 92 rushing yards only once since Oct. 4.

RECAP: I know the Bengals were blown out for the first time all year last week, but I'll give them a mulligan. I still like them as big underdogs; they're the sort of team that plays up to its competition and will keep any game close.

I'm also a fan of the Statfox Trend, which says to fade any home favorite coming off a very close road victory (look below for more details).

With that in mind, I can't make a big play on Cincinnati because the Chargers are just so hot.

PICK CHANGE: I'm writing this on Thursday morning. Chris Henry passed away. I don't know how the Bengals will be focused for this game.


The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
The Bengals' thoughts are with the passing of Chris Henry.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
About two-thirds action on San Diego.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (159,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Road Rules: Marvin Lewis is 8-3 ATS on the road after a road game.
  • Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 20-44 ATS.
  • Philip Rivers is 15-7 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (5-1 ATS as an underdog).
  • Opening Line: Chargers -7.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 69 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Bengals 13
    Chargers -7 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chargers 27, Bengals 24




    Oakland Raiders (4-9) at Denver Broncos (8-5)
    Line: Broncos by 14. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Broncos -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Broncos -10.5.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's a new month, so you have another chance to win in our picking contest. If you don't know what I'm talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It's free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

    Also, a few reminders:

    There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

    I'll also have Week 15 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

    And finally, there are still 12 people alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: You really have to feel bad for the Raiders. Bruce Gradkowski wasn't an overly talented quarterback by any means, but he at least gave the team some stability. Gradkowski tore both his MCLs against the Redskins, which forced JaMarcus Russell into the game. As noted in the Early Games page, the Oakland players seriously stopped trying when Captain Skittles entered the lineup (credit Facebook poster Andrew L. for coming up with that one).

    The Raiders appear to be undecided about whom their quarterback will be this Sunday. The coaching staff apparently wants Charlie Frye or J.P. Losman to be the guy, but they'll have to trick Al Davis into thinking Russell is hurt. I still say that using Photoshop to create a fake newspaper is the way to go.

    The Broncos have a really good defense, so it may not matter. They struggled during their four-game losing streak, but they've surrendered 3.6 yards per carry or less to each opponent since. They also haven't allowed more than 220 passing yards to anyone since Oct. 19. If it's Russell, however, expect tons of turnovers; Denver gets good pressure on the quarterback and Russell takes a lot of sacks because he has no pocket awareness and can't read defenses.

    DENVER OFFENSE: While the Broncos excel versus the run, the Raiders struggle against it. They've permitted at least 100 rushing yards to all but two of their opponents this season. The last time they battled Denver, they yielded 215 yards on the ground.

    I really don't see why that would change here. Correll Buckhalter was on crutches after the Colts loss, so assuming that he's out, Knowshon Moreno will have a big game, setting up Kyle Orton with manageable short-yardage situations.

    Orton, of course, will look toward Brandon Marshall early and often. I'd like to tell you that Nnamdi Asomugha will shut down Marshall, but the stuck-in-time Raiders like to keep their corners on just one side of the field. Besides, Asomugha is banged up and not 100 percent.

    RECAP: The Broncos are obviously the better team, but this just seems like a lot of points to me. Outside of a blowout over Kansas City, Denver has scored 16, 26, 3, 17, 10 and 7 points since their bye. How can the Broncos cover 14 points if they may not even score 14 points?

    Besides, this figures to be an emotional low for Denver after losing a taxing game against the Colts. I think the Raiders will bring more of an effort to this contest, regardless of whether Captain Skittles starts or not.

    SURVIVOR PICK: This is my clear-cut top choice for Survivor. The only other options I see are the Seahawks and Jets, but with Bruce Gradkowski out, I feel safe with Denver.

    If I had every team available to me, my options in order would be: Ravens, Broncos, Eagles, Saints, Jets, Seahawks.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    The Raiders simply quit when JaMarcus Russell entered the game. With Bruce Gradkowski out for the year, Russell will get the start. The Broncos are coming off an emotional loss, but I doubt we'll see much of an effort from Oakland.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action, which is shocking.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (96,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • History: Broncos have won 18 of the last 24 meetings (Raiders 5-2 ATS since 2006).
  • Broncos are 1-9 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 16
    Raiders +14 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 37 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Survivor Pick (14-0)
    Raiders 20, Broncos 19





    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) at Seattle Seahawks (5-8)
    Line: Seahawks by 6.5. Total: 39.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Seahawks -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Seahawks -7.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Two Videos of the Week, both about NFL refs: Tony Romo mocks an NFL official and a Referee making up for his blown call.

    In the first video, take note of some of the comments on the page:

    romo's an a**
    he sucks
    SUCKS

    Does he suck? I'm not sure I got the message when you capitalized the word "sucks" on its own line after saying it earlier.

    And the second video is awesome. Jerome Boger is probably somewhere watching it and thinking to himself, "That's just stupid. If you're betting on a team and calling penalties on the other, why would you announce that you're going to do something fishy? You have to keep everything secret, you idiot!"

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I don't even know why I'm bothering with this. If you check the write-up of my Bills-Patriots game, you'll see that if I bet on Josh Freeman, he'll be terrible, and if I go against him, he'll have a Pro Bowl performance. This guy hates me for some weird reason.

    In all seriousness, Freeman has been absolutely horrible in his past two games with no touchdowns and eight interceptions, but it's hard to fault him because he was going up against two pretty stout secondaries. Seattle's defensive backfield is a joke compared to New York and Carolina's, but I think that's sort of offset by the fact that Freeman has to play a game in a really hostile environment for the first time in his career. Freeman's games thus far have been at Atlanta, Carolina and Miami - not exactly the scariest places to be a visiting quarterback. Qwest Field, on the other hand, is a different beast.

    Raheem Morris said he'll scale Freeman back a little and attempt to establish the run to build some play-action opportunities for his rookie quarterback. That's probably something Morris should have been doing in the first place. Still, this might be a bit tough for the Buccaneers to pull off; they don't exactly run the ball well, while Seattle's ground defense has been solid recently.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: I really hope Jim Mora Jr.'s IQ expands Sunday afternoon because I'd like to see what Justin Forsett can do against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 150 rushing yards or more in six of their past seven games. Like Todd Haley earlier in the year, Mora for some reason doesn't recognize that his backup running back is more talented than his has-been starter.

    If Forsett gets going, he could really open things up for Matt Hasselbeck, who needs all the help he can get because Nate Burleson will probably be out.

    The Buccaneers have limited four of their past five opponents to less than 190 passing yards, but that's a little misleading. Outside of Drew Brees (who didn't have to throw much because he was up by a ton), the other four quarterbacks Tampa Bay battled in that span were Kellen Clemens, Matt Moore, Chris Redman and Chad Henne.

    Hasselbeck won't light it up or anything, but Seattle shouldn't have much trouble moving the chains on Tampa Bay's defense.

    RECAP: I guess I'm a glutton for punishment because I'm making a big play against Freeman. If he throws five touchdowns, I won't be surprised.

    In all seriousness, the Seahawks are still a very good home team (Hasselbeck is 4-1 ATS at Qwest this year) and the Buccaneers historically have been awful on the West Coast. How bad? Try 4-26 straight up.

    I also mention below that Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was with Tampa Bay last year. I love going with coaches playing their former teams because they know all of the personnel and schemes, but after thinking about it, there have been so many roster changes in Tampa Bay that I'm not sure how much that means.


    The Psychology. Edge: Sehawks.
    Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley coached in Tampa Bay from 2006 to 2008.


    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Josh Freeman is terrible right now, but this line is high enough to prevent tons of Seattle action.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (94,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Buccaneers are 4-26 SU on the West Coast.
  • Seahawks are 11-3 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -7.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Showers, 49 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 17
    Seahawks -6 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 39.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Buccaneers 24, Seahawks 7





    Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)
    Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Steelers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Steelers -3.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo's Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I did the same. Bo-Bo finished 3-10, losing his final game by the score of 88-23.

    Now that Bo-Bo's season is over, let's look back at some of the abuse he took on his fantasy league message board.

    It all started when Bo-Bo posted the following about Steve (The Iron Fist), who finished with the league's best record: "Steve congrats....you've made the Toyota biggest fantasy blowout advertisment on fantasy page.....losing 115-68 to Albyfree.....you're now in the fantasy record books....well done rabbi."

    Pretty ironic for a guy who lost 88-23 in Week 13, huh? Well, here was the response:

    The Iron Fist: "Who cares? I'm tied for 1st place and your sorry a** is at the bottom of the barrel."

    Cookie: "Bo-Bo, do you realize that even though you some how have more points then Spooge, you are by far the worst football fantasy player this world has ever seen?"

    The Iron Fist: "What goes on in Bo-bo's head? I know. How to draft the s***tiest fantasy football team, ever!"

    Cookie: "BOBO is now famous on Walterfootball.com. He just bashed him again lol. Hilarious! I just dont know no how someone can be so consistently awful."

    The Iron Fist: "Haha, well look at the bright side for Bo-Bo, Mike. He is consistent in one thing: Being awful."

    Once again, Bo-Bo finished with 952 points - the only owner in this league with less than 1,050. Let's hope he comes back next year for more laughs and a potential winless season!

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Awful news for the Steelers - Troy Polamalu was ruled out for this game. It's amazing how much Polamalu means to this team. In Polamalu's five starts this year, Pittsburgh is 4-1 and has allowed 13.8 points, 70.8 rushing yards and 201.8 passing yards per game. In the eight contests Polamalu has missed, the Steelers are 2-6 and have surrendered 21.9 points, 93.6 rushing yards and 213.9 passing yards per game (the latter number skewed by Brady Quinn's 84 yards Thursday night).

    Yeah, I'm going out on a limb here and saying that the Steelers won't be able to stop the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has received much better pass protection since his team lost to the Buccaneers, so I don't think Pittsburgh will force him into more than two or three sacks. That means Rodgers will be able to locate his weapons downfield and convert his third downs. Statistically, there's no better quarterback in this league on third down.

    Ryan Grant should also have a decent performance. The Steelers couldn't even stop Cleveland's rushing attack even though Quinn offered nothing as a downfield passing threat. Grant just tallied 137 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries at Chicago. He'll get enough here to constantly put Rodgers in third-and-short.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don't know what's going on with Pittsburgh's pass protection schemes. Max Starks looked lost Thursday night, while Chris Kemoeatu will miss this contest. With Clay Matthews coming on, don't be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger is sacked a ton again.

    Pittsburgh made a huge mistake Thursday night by not running the ball enough with Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers of old would have ran the ball 40 times in those conditions and pounded out a victory. Instead, Mendenhall received just 16 carries. That's inexcusable.

    Giving the ball to Mendenhall won't work here. The Packers have limited each of their previous six opponents to 81 rushing yards or less. With that in mind, Roethlisberger will have to convert third-and-long situations amid shaky pressure. Making matters worse, Charles Woodson will erase Santonio Holmes, leaving Big Ben with Hines Ward and Heath Miller as his only viable options.

    This ordinarily wouldn't be a problem, but Ward is really hobbled right now. He's not anywhere close to 100 percent, and he really hurt Pittsburgh on Thursday night because he couldn't run any of his routes effectively. Ward is coming off a hamstring injury, so resting it would have been the best course of action; that's the only way soft-tissue injuries heal. By playing, Ward set himself back another week. If he keeps going, he won't be healthy the rest of the year.

    RECAP: I like the Packers in this spot. They're a hot team, while the Steelers have major problems in all phases. Their offensive line can't pass protect; their secondary is a shadow of its former self without Polamalu; and the kickoff coverage surrenders huge returns every week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    The Steelers absolutely need to win this game, but that apparently didn't mean much against the Browns.


    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    Lots of late betting on the Steelers has evened out the money flow.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 60% (142,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Steelers are 20-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 66-28 as a starter (51-41 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Steelers -1.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 30 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 20
    Packers +2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Steelers 37, Packers 36





    Minnesota Vikings (11-2) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
    Line: Vikings by 9. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Vikings -9.
    Sunday, 8:20 ET

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some more notes I need to get to:

    1. Is anyone else pissed that NBC didn't flex the Chargers-Bengals game? Why would anyone want to see this crappy matchup? I know what NBC was thinking: "OMG OMG LET'S PUT BRETT FAVRE ON TV AGAIN OMG OMG OMG."

    No! I've seen enough of Favre. I've heard enough of Favre. If I have to listen to another NFL analyst gushing over Favre again and saying that he "looks like a kid out there," I will debacle myself. Argh.

    2. I'd be remiss if I didn't thank my friend and old college buddy Strawley Trolley for helping the December NFL Pick of the Month happen.

    I really liked the 49ers over the Cardinals, and I was planning on making it a 5-unit selection. When I told Strawley Trolley I liked the Niners, he immediately said, "Looks like a Pick of the Month." That's when I realized it - that contest was exactly identical to the Cowboys-Bills, Giants-Browns and Jaguars-Texans Monday night games that have taken place over the past couple of years.

    Watching the 49ers beat the Cardinals was a lot of fun.

    3. Humorous e-mail from Tim B.:

    Next time you do Jerks of the Week please do Matt Millen or even the NFL network. Why the hell do they put him on Thursday night football? I have lived in the Detroit area my whole life and I have a true hatred for this piece of s***. Sure he is good television personality, but I think he has lost all credibility after his attempt at being a NFL general manager.

    This guy is the biggest joke. I dont know how he can analyze anything that has to do with football and feel confident in himself, or how anybody else can hear him on the TV and think he knows what hes talking about. I dont know if you heard about it, but he got confused about some rules on TV a couple weeks ago. Here is a link to the story: Matt Millen Doesn't Know the Rules.

    THIS GUY IS A JOKE.

    Awesome job, Tim.

    I've always equated Millen's TV return to a drug addict being re-introduced into society. Millen took a couple of months off after being fired by the Lions (rehab?), but reappeared on NBC in the playoffs back in January.

    As with a former drug addict, you knew Millen was going to slip up sooner or later. We were all waiting for him to say something like, "If I were starting a team today, I'd take Dwayne Jarrett over Philip Rivers" or "Mario Manningham is the single greatest player of this generation."

    This wasn't as drastic, but not knowing the rules is pretty bad considering if, you know, YOU'RE ON THE DAMN RULES COMMITTEE!

    Help! Millen is relapsing! Send him back to rehab!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Well, I suppose I will be debacling myself because I have to talk about Favre here. Favre really struggled at Arizona two weeks ago, constantly throwing off his back foot and not looking at his intended target.

    This past Sunday, Favre was 17-of-30 for just 192 yards, one touchdown and an interception. It's tough to say if this was a good performance or not. On one hand, he was going up against a very talented Bengals secondary. But on the other hand, besides the pick, Favre had two other throws that should have been intercepted. One was a tipped pass, while the other was dropped by corner Johnathan Joseph in the end zone.

    Favre faces another tough challenge Sunday night. Carolina's defensive backfield is pretty stout, owning 18 interceptions on the year and holding three of its past four opponents to 192 passing yards or less. If Favre begins pulling the same stunts he was guilty of in Arizona, the Panthers will come away with several picks.

    To avoid this, the Vikings must run the ball as often as possible. The Panthers have surrendered 139-plus rushing yards in five straight games, so as long as Favre keeps handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson, Minnesota should be able to move the chains consistently.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Great news for Panthers fans - there's talk that Matt Moore will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year even if Jake Delhomme is healthy. Moore is nowhere near as physically talented as Delhomme, but he at least doesn't throw five interceptions every week. In fact, Moore has just one pick in two starts.

    Like the Vikings, the Panthers need to run the ball as much as possible. Minnesota's ground defense is known for being impenetrable with the Williams Wall clogging everything, but the team has actually surrendered 232 rushing yards the past two weeks.

    The reason for this? Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson's season-ending injury. Henderson was a fantastic player who unfortunately broke his femur at Arizona. His absence has already been felt and will be prevalent going forward into the playoffs.

    Like Cedric Benson last week, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should have success moving the chains on the ground. As long as Moore isn't stuck in third-and-long situations, the Panthers should be able to keep the ball away from Favre and Peterson enough to keep the game close.

    RECAP: This game doesn't mean anything to the Vikings. They're not catching the Saints, and they're not in danger of losing the No. 2 seed. They're pretty much locked into where they are.

    With that in mind, I like Carolina here. The Panthers have played close games all year; their losses have been by 10, 11 (Delhomme interceptions), 7, 10 (Saints), 11 (Delhomme interceptions), 14 (Delhomme interceptions) and 8. The only time they've been blown out was back in Week 1 against the Eagles because of - you guessed it - Delhomme interceptions.

    With Moore taking care of the football, I think this contest is a tight one - especially considering that the Vikings may not show up completely focused.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Unless the Saints lose to Dallas, this game is meaningless for the Vikings.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (114,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Panthers are 30-23 ATS as an underdog the previous 53 instances.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -7.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Panthers 17
    Panthers +9 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Panthers 26, Vikings 7





    New York Giants (7-6) at Washington Redskins (4-9)
    Line: Giants by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Giants -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Giants -3.
    Monday, 8:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Giants and Redskins battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

    Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Washington D.C., the capital of the Western Hemisphere! Tonight, the New York Giants take on the Washington Nationals. Guys, I don't know what to do here. I hate both of these teams. Why would the NFL schedule a game between two of my five hated teams? It's not right. I can't have a rooting interest in this one, so I may not even watch the game!

    Emmitt: Karl, when a situation arisen like these, I like to root for the underdog. The underdog sometime have the spirit of a lion and the heart of a lion and... uhh... a hungry like a lion and a will like a... uhh... lion. It's amazement that the Detroit Lion do not has all of these characteristicallies!

    Reilly: Emmitt, I respect you as a God-like figure, but I can't bring myself to root for one of these teams. Maybe I can hope that an atomic bomb hits the field and wipes these two squads out from existence! Good riddance, I say!

    Herm: You don't want to see the bomb now! You don't want to see the bomb! Trust me! No bombs up in here! No bombs! Do you know what happens when the bomb comes! Do you know!? I know! I know what happens when the bomb comes! I know what happens! I'll tell you what happens when the bomb comes! I'll tell you what happens now! Ready! Here is what happens! Here it is! I... uhh... bomb...

    Reilly: Coach, now you're making me wish I had an atomic bomb so I could blow you up. Emmitt, what would it take for me to buy an atomic bomb, lock Coach, the Giants and the Nationals in one room, and blow them all to smithereens?

    Emmitt: I think a bomb cost $25, and a lock cost $50, and a room cost $100, so all together, if you add up the value on the calculation machine, you get... uhh... minus $125. So if you do these, you will get $125 in refundable.

    Reilly: Are you sure, Emmitt? I'm no math whiz, but that doesn't seem right to me.

    Emmitt: Yes, I just double-checkeded it and I receive the same value on the calculation. If there's one thing I learn in the University of Florida State University, it's that a calculation machine do not lie - even if you ask it to.

    Reilly: Well, OK, if you're sure. I wouldn't mind getting a $125 bonus out of blowing up Coach, the Giants and the Nationals.

    Herm: I know what happened! I know what happened! I saw it! I saw it with my own eyes! He hit the plus sign instead of the minus sign! I mean he hit the minus sign of the plus sign! Let me do it! Let me calculate! I can figure it out! I can figure it out now! I got the calculator! I got it right here! I'm going to input the numbers! Here we go! I'm inputting them! I'm inputting them right now! I'm pressing the button! I'm pressing it right now! I'm... uhh... I forgot the numbers can someone tell me the numbers?

    Reilly: As usual, Coach is trying to screw me out of a good deal and take away my fun! What a surprise. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The "Nationals" have really improved since Daniel Snyder hired a Bingo announcer to be his offensive coordinator. After failing to score more than 17 points in any contest up until Nov. 8, the Redskins have averaged 24.2 points per game the past five weeks.

    Jason Campbell has simply been amazing considering the horrific offensive line he has to work behind. In that aforementioned 5-week span, Campbell has thrown eight touchdowns and just four interceptions. His completion percentage rests at 64.1, while his YPA is a very respectable 7.5. As long as Campbell continues to play well, Daniel Snyder almost has to bring him back next year with a high tender.

    And I don't see why Campbell would regress here. As everyone saw Sunday night, the Giants are horrible versus the pass. In the past four weeks, they've allowed an average of 293.3 passing yards to the opposition.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Conversely, the Redskins are very good against aerial attacks. Only two teams have compiled more than 200 passing yards against them dating back to Sept. 27. Those quarterbacks were Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb, whom Washington played relatively well.

    Eli Manning was nearly flawless Sunday night, going 27-of-38 for 391 yards and three touchdowns despite suffering five drops. He'll have some success against the Redskins, who always seem to blow a coverage or two every week. However, I don't think Manning will be as prolific this week, considering how well Washington has played defensively.

    A good sign for the Giants is that Brandon Jacobs actually showed signs of life last week, running with power and determination after fumbling early on. The Redskins have limited their previous two opponents to 65 rushing yards or less. Even though one of those games was against the Raiders, it was still impressive because Washington didn't have Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth will practice this week, albeit on a limited basis, but I expect him in the lineup because this is a Monday night affair.

    New York needs Jacobs to run well to keep Manning out of third-and-long situations. Washington has a rabid pass rush, led by Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter (11 sacks each). The loss of right tackle Kareem McKenzie will really hurt the Giants.

    RECAP: I really love the Redskins here for a few reasons:

    1. The Giants are coming off an emotional loss to the Eagles. Beating Philly was their chance to take control of the NFC East. They blew it. Now, they have to get up for "lowly" 4-9 Washington.

    2. The Redskins are actually a really good team. With Jason Campbell playing better, they've covered each of their past five games. They're 2-3 in that stretch, but their losses have been to New Orleans (by 3), Philadelphia (3) and Dallas (1). That's pretty damn impressive.

    3. At this point, I'm not convinced that the Giants are any better than the Redskins. In fact, their records are the only reason New York is laying three on the road. If I had to base the spread on how these teams have played recently, I'd actually favor Washington by three.

    4. This is a huge game for the Redskins. It's Monday night, so they'll feed off the crowd's emotion just like the 49ers did last week. Washington obviously can't make the playoffs, but beating the Giants here and the Cowboys next week is what the players are focusing on. Defeating their divisional rivals will really build momentum for next year.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    A tough loss for the Giants against the Eagles, and you know the Redskins will bring it here as Monday night home underdogs.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Vegas is pounding the Giants, whose playoff lives are on the line.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 75% (183,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • History: Giants have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Giants are 24-9 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Giants are 15-9 ATS after a loss since 2005.
  • Redskins are 9-4 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.
  • Redskins are 7-18 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Giants -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 15 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Giants 24
    Redskins +3 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Giants 45, Redskins 12





    Week 15 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Colts at Jaguars, Cowboys at Saints, Patriots at Bills, Cardinals at Lions, Dolphins at Titans, Browns at Chiefs, Texans at Rams, Falcons at Jets, 49ers at Eagles, Bears at Ravens


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Saints -1.5, Seahawks -0.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
  • Moneyline Dog: 49ers +305 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Psychological Edge Parlay: Saints -7.5, Bills +7, Jets -7, 49ers +7.5, Ravens -11, Redskins +3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) -- Incorrect; -$50





    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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