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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)

NFL Picks (2009): 84-59-3 (+$6,295)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 4:30 p.m. ET.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks - Late Games



Chicago Bears (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 43.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): 49ers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): 49ers -3.
Thursday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 9 Recap: It felt good to rebound after three disgusting weeks. I went 9-4 and won 11.2 units this past weekend. I'm pissed off at myself that I got the Eagles-Cowboys game wrong. I know exactly how to read the Eagles, and it's something I've foolishly ignored the past two weeks. I'll explain when I get to the Philly-San Diego pick.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears may have scored 21 points on the Cardinals, but two of those touchdowns came late. The bottom line is that Chicago mustered just seven real points last week, meaning the team's offensive struggles have continued; excluding a 30-6 victory over the Browns, the last time the Bears scored more than 14 legitimate points in a game was Oct. 4 against the Lions.

The problem is the offensive line. The Bears simply can't block for Jay Cutler or open up holes for Matt Forte. Chicago still easily got the better end of the deal of the Cutler-Kyle Orton trade, and there's definitely nothing wrong with Forte. It's just that all of the problems are up front.

The 49ers don't exactly excel at getting to the quarterback, but they're not challenged either (17 sacks). However, that figure will move into the 20s after this contest is over. Forte won't get anything versus San Francisco's solid rush defense, meaning Cutler will be placed into long-yardage situations on quite a few occasions. Cutler has been sacked eight times in the past two weeks by the Browns and Cardinals.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, San Francisco has offensive line issues as well. Right tackle has always been a problem, but left tackle Joe Staley's recent injury presents a major issue for them.

Though Chicago's defense has struggled this year in the wake of Brian Urlacher's injury and Tommie Harris' decline, the unit is still pretty solid against the rush (11th). They should be able to contain Frank Gore, forcing Alex Smith into unfavorable situations.

San Francisco's offensive line has allowed 26 sacks on the year. Like the 49ers, the Bears don't exactly thrive at getting pressure on the quarterback, but they should be able to in this contest.

RECAP: These teams are matched pretty evenly and have the same major flaw. However, the 49ers have two major advantages in this game:

First, the Bears have to travel to the West Coast on a very short work week. Lovie Smith isn't great to begin with on the other side of the country (2-3 ATS), so flying out there on short rest could be very taxing for his team.

Second, I love taking home teams in weeknight games. Take away two bad beats (Colts-Jaguars and Broncos-Browns last year), and Thursday night hosts are 6-3 against the spread the past two seasons. The crowd is going to be pumped up and the 49ers will feed off of that emotion. This is just a horrible spot for Chicago.


The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
This is a must-win situation for both teams. The 49ers will be able to feed off the emotion of the weeknight home crowd.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Three-quarters of the action was on the 49ers early on. Things have evened out.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (63,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Winning Coach: Lovie Smith is 7-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Bears are 6-1 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.
  • Bears are 20-11 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: .
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 30, Bears 17
    49ers -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 43.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    49ers 10, Bears 6



    Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)
    Line: Titans by 8. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Titans -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Titans -4.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Vegas Recap: The sportsbooks lost millions of dollars two weeks ago. They won just a bit of money in Week 8. Fortunately for them, they really recovered this past weekend, going 5-3 with lopsided games. It helped that underdogs went 10-3 against the spread. Vegas won money with the Bengals, Buccaneers, Chargers, Titans and Cowboys all covering. Their losses came with the Falcons, Seahawks and Steelers beating the number. Vegas is still down on the year, so expect another week in their favor, though they'll probably let the public win on the weekend before Black Friday.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: All Vince Young does is win football games. Young is now 20-11 as a starter, and you have to wonder where this Titans team would be if they had gone with him the entire season.

    Young's arm strength and scrambling ability really opens things up for Chris Johnson. It's no coincidence that Johnson has had two of his three best rushing performances with Young under center. He'll cross the 125-yard barrier once again; the Bills are ranked dead last against the run.

    The Titans will never have an explosive offense with Young under center. In fact, if the Bills can somehow contain Johnson on early downs, their outstanding and opportunistic secondary could force Young into some errors on third-and-long situations. The problem, however, will be getting the Titans out of third-and-short.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: All Trent Edwards does is throw checkdown passes. Edwards will be back, but it's not like he's a major upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. Edwards can actually get the ball downfield, but he's too scared to take a shot.

    Like always, Edwards will resort to dumping it off to Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. This will really bog down the offense and make it more difficult for the Bills to run the ball. The Titans have surrendered at least 105 rushing yards in three of their past four games, but without the threat of the long ball, they should be able to stuff Lynch in the backfield.

    RECAP: The Titans are on a roll and the public finally believes in them. That has forced the oddsmakers to create an inflated line. A week ago, the Titans would have been -3.

    I'll usually ride Young as an underdog or a short favorite because he's such an underrated player, but I don't trust him to cover anything more than three or four points. In his career, Young is just 1-3 against the spread as a favorite of -5 or more, and that sole cover was a bad beat if I remember correctly. I'm not in love with this play, but I'm taking the points.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    Now that Vince Young has won two in a row, everyone is jumping on the bandwagon.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 62% (116,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 20-13 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
  • Bills are 15-7 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
  • Dick Jauron is 3-0 ATS after a bye.
  • Vince Young is 20-11 as a starter (20-11 ATS).
  • Vince Young is 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 5 or more.
  • Opening Line: Titans -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 68 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Titans 16, Bills 13
    Bills +8 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Titans 41, Bills 17





    Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
    Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 42.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Steelers -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Steelers -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. I look forward to 12:58 p.m. each Sunday. That's when the super-hot Rebecca Grant appears on FOX and says something to us. I'm not sure what her purpose is because I'm distracted, if you know what I mean.

    Unfortunately, Rebecca hasn't shown us any cleavage the past two weeks. I find this very troubling. If this goes on, I'll actually have to listen to what she's saying. I don't want to do that. Please, Verizon, let Rebecca wear more revealing clothing.

    2. Put Mike Ditka on the list of people who believe Tim Tebow will thrive in the NFL. Ditka praised Tebow on Sunday NFL Countdown this past weekend. Though he made a dumb trade for Ricky Williams 10 years ago, Ditka is the man. He's 9-0 with his Monday night picks for crying out loud. He obviously knows what he's talking about.

    3. I find it completely hilarious that the Saints have more defensive touchdowns (7) than the Browns have offensive touchdowns (5). I guess that's what happens when you trade franchise quarterbacks and No. 1 receivers for fifth-round picks and crappy role players.

    4. Screw ESPN and screw the new, crappy NFL Primetime. Trey Wingo and Merril Hoge have killed it. They didn't show any Jaguars-Chiefs highlights. I complained about this on Twitter and got a response: "Which viewers are tuning in to get a Jags Chiefs recap? Ugh."

    Which viewers? How about the ones who own Jaguars and Chiefs players in their fantasy leagues? How about gamblers looking to see what happened in that game so they can make a more educated pick/bet next week? How about fans of Kansas City and Jacksonville? ESPN waters down all of its cookie-cutter shows and I'm really getting sick of it. Perhaps I'm just angry that I haven't seen Rebecca Grant's cleavage in two weeks. But ESPN really does suck.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Rashard Mendenhall looks great. If he keeps playing this well - and I don't see why he wouldn't - the Steelers are really going to have a dangerous offense. Mendenhall ripped off 155 rushing yards against the Broncos' top-five run defense Monday night. The Bengals rank sixth against ground attacks, and they just did a great job on Ray Rice, but the Steelers look like they can run on anyone.

    The difference between Baltimore and Pittsburgh's offense is all of the weapons Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal. Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are both better than Derrick Mason, while slot receiver Mike Wallace is really coming into his own. And don't forget about Heath Miller either. All of these weapons are going to make it taxing for Cincinnati to concentrate on Mendenhall.

    The first time Roethlisberger played the Bengals this year, he was 22-of-31 for 276 yards, one touchdown and a pick. And that was with Antwan Odom in the lineup for the Bengals. Without Odom, it's going to be much more difficult for Cincinnati to stop the Steelers. It looks like the Bengals will have to rely on Pittsburgh mistakes just like last time.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Cedric Benson has proven that he can run on anyone. The Steelers are first versus the rush, yet Benson still managed to gain 76 yards on just 16 carries (4.8 YPC) in the first meeting.

    There's no reason to think Pittsburgh will have more luck stopping him this time around. So, with Benson running well, Carson Palmer should have extra time in the pocket to find his receivers downfield to move the chains.

    Palmer was just 20-of-37 for 183 yards and a score against Pittsburgh in Week 3, but he was still rusty coming off an injury. Since that contest, Palmer has thrown for 224 yards or more in every game. That should probably negate the fact that Troy Polamalu will be in the lineup, unlike last time.

    RECAP: Last week, I said that the Ravens were better than the Bengals, yet I picked Cincinnati because this team really thrives as an underdog.

    I'm going to state the same thing this time as well. The Steelers are the better squad. However, I'm taking the points because the Bengals really play up to their opponent when no one believes in them. They have to feel disrespected by this ridiculous line. Pittsburgh should not be favored by a touchdown.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Bengals seem to feed off the emotion of being an underdog. They have to feel disrespected by this line.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Early action on the Bengals. It's evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 53% (158,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • History: Steelers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Div Dog: Marvin Lewis is 2-4 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.
  • Monday Magic: Teams coming off 17+ point wins on Monday night are 34-18 ATS the following week since 1999 (Mike Tomlin 0-2).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 66-24 as a starter (51-38 ATS).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 20-11 ATS vs. the AFC North.
  • Steelers are 7-5 ATS as favorites of 7 or more under Mike Tomlin.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17
    Bengals +7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 42 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bengals 18, Steelers 12





    New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7)
    Line: Saints by 14. Total: 50.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Saints -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Saints -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Some college football notes I can't put anywhere else:

    1. Did I mention that the NCAA is the most corrupt organization in America? I don't know how many of you watched the Alabama-LSU game, but the SEC officials once again screwed up a bunch of easy calls. Down six, the Tigers intercepted an Alabama pass along the sideline. It was ruled incomplete, but CBS color commentator Gary Danielson continuously harped on and on about how you could see the divot coming out of the ground when the defender's foot was inbounds. Danielson was right; it looked like an obvious pick to me.

    However, the call was ruled incomplete by the crooked SEC official. Alabama kicked a field goal, putting the game out of reach.

    On LSU's next drive, the refs missed a blatant face mask that resulted in a Tigers injury.

    This really is getting out of hand. The officials have proven that they'll stop at nothing to get Alabama and Florida into the SEC Championship so that the winner can move on to the fake national championship. The thing is, I'd be fine with this if the SEC just admitted this. At least they'd be honest about fixing their games. But at this point, there's no real point in even playing them.

    2. Reason No. 53,356,964,f90,921 why the NCAA sucks: Iowa was 9-0 heading into this Northwestern game. As 16-point favorites, the Hawkeyes figured to win easily over Northwestern. Unfortunately, their awesome quarterback Ricky Stanzi suffered an ankle injury, forcing some J. Vandenberg (according to CBS' game tracker) into the game.

    J. Vandenberg went 9-of-27 for 81 yards and a pick. Because he sucked so much, the 10-0 lead that Stanzi established quickly vanished into a 17-10 deficit. Iowa never recovered and lost.

    Injuries are a big part of football. For all we know, Iowa could be the top team in the nation this year (note that Texas almost lost multiple times, while Florida and Alabama have gotten victories because of crooked SEC officials). However, Iowa won't get to prove itself. Its season is over because the team has a loss now. Sure, the Hawkeyes can make the Rose Bowl (sponsored by Snickers), but no one gives a damn about the Rose Bowl (sponsored by Snickers) anymore. I'd rather clean up my dog's poop for three hours than watch the Rose Bowl (sponsored by Snickers).

    3. Remember when that senile old man on ESPN predicted that Notre Dame would win the national championship? How in the world does Notre Dame lose to Navy? Navy lost to freaking Temple! Charlie Weis needs to be fired. He clearly cannot concentrate on being a head coach and eating his usual 20 meals a day at the same time. Romeo Crennel proved this was impossible during his stint in Cleveland.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: As Emmitt would say, "Let's make this short, sweet and sour." The Rams don't have the personnel to keep the Saints from scoring on nearly every possession. To contain Drew Brees, you need to get pressure with your front four because he's great against the blitz. St. Louis has just 14 sacks on the year. D'oh!

    Brees will have tons of time to throw, so he'll effortlessly torch the Rams' 26th-ranked secondary. This, of course, will open up great running opportunities for Pierre Thomas, who looks like he has established himself as the featured back in this offense.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The question here is if the Rams will be able to muster enough long drives to keep Brees off the field. Steven Jackson should be able to accumulate at least 100 rushing yards; the Saints simply cannot stop the run without stud defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis in the lineup.

    However, when Marc Bulger is faced with an obvious passing down, he's going to struggle. The Saints bring a good amount of pressure (19 sacks) and the Rams offensive line isn't very good. Bulger also doesn't have the weapons to keep St. Louis' defense honest.

    RECAP: The Rams have faced three teams with winning records (at the time each game occurred) this year. They've been outscored by those three teams (Vikings, 49ers and Colts) by a 115-16 margin. How pathetic is that?

    This is almost a statement game for the Saints after three mediocre outings. And don't worry about laying two touchdowns on the road; there may actually be more Saints supporters than Rams fans in the seats.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Saints don't have a tough opponent to look forward to, so they'll be focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Duh.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 91% (174,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 46-29 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 20-10 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Opening Line: Saints -14.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 45, Rams 10
    Saints -14 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 50 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 28, Rams 23





    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (3-5)
    Line: Dolphins by 10. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Dolphins -11.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Dolphiins -10.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    One more note on college football. I was waiting for College Football Scoreboard to come on because I missed some earlier action. However, ESPN was showing horse racing instead. Actually, the race was over, but ESPN felt the need to show the horses trot around in circles for 15 minutes.

    The announcing was pretty nauseating because they kept saying the same things over and over. Here's what it sounded like:

    Announcer 1: Ah, that mare is so lovely. Yes.
    Announcer 2: Yes, it's lovely. So lovely.
    Announcer 3: What a lovely mare.
    Announcer 1: And there's the owner of the horse. What a happy man.
    Announcer 2: What a lovely and happy man.
    Announcer 3: Oh he's so lovely and happy.
    Announcer 1: This horse joins the legends in horse racing.
    Announcer 2: Yes, it happily joins the legends in horse racing.
    Announcer 3: Of course it does, it's so lovely. Happy and lovely.

    This went on for 15 minutes. I wanted to buy an Uzi just so I could shoot my TV. There was no reason to stick with the horse racing. ESPN should have cut away to College Football Scoreboard. No one cares about horse racing except for degenerate gamblers like myself, and the racing was over. So, in a sense, no one was watching this! No one, ESPN! No one!

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: So, how about that Josh Freeman? Though he completed just 14-of-31 passes, Freeman played very well in his first start. He made enough plays to carry the Buccaneers to victory at the end.

    What really helped Freeman was his protection. Tampa Bay's underrated offensive line limited the Packers to just one sack. On the rare occasions that Freeman was under pressure, he was able to scramble away, picking up 20 yards on four rushes. The Dolphins tend to get pressure on the quarterback, but the Buccaneers will protect Freeman well. And unlike last week, Freeman should have Antonio Bryant at his disposal.

    Tampa Bay's ground attack will also help in this matter. The Dolphins just surrendered more than four YPC to Laurence Maroney, so Cadillac Williams should be able to run well, especially if inside linebacker Channing Crowder misses another game.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have a bunch of young defenders who look like they're finally starting to get it. They managed a whopping six sacks on Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.

    Unfortunately, the Dolphins' offensive line is a billion times better than Green Bay's. Aside from two games, Chad Henne has taken just four sacks in five starts. The running game just works so well that Henne's third-and-long situations are really limited. The Buccaneers couldn't contain Ryan Grant and Ahman Green last week, so it's tough to imagine them handling Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams out of the Wildcat.

    That said, don't expect a ton of points from Miami. This offense just isn't explosive. There is no No. 1 receiver and Henne is still pretty raw as a passer. His YPA is just 6.3. It's better than Chad Pennington's 5.6, but it's still pretty mediocre.

    RECAP: Too many points here. Tony Sparano and his mediocre offense have never covered a spread larger than -3.

    Also, this is an awful spot for the Dolphins. They put so much stock in last week's battle against the Patriots. They revealed new wrinkles to their Wildcat offense, yet they came up just a bit short. I really can't see Miami displaying that same emotion as huge favorites over some crap NFC squad. It's worth noting that Sparano has never covered (0-6 ATS) a game versus an NFC foe.

    Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will be playing with great emotion after their first victory of the year. This team looks like it's starting to believe in itself. Freeman is just the spark they needed.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Dolphins brought 200 percent to the table against the Patriots. They even revealed a new wrinkle to their Wildcat. However, they came up short, meaning at 3-5, their season is all but over. They'll be flat against this random NFC squad. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, could be playing with more confidence and energy with an impressive rookie quarterback.


    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    No one believes in Josh Freeman yet?
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 81% (122,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Buccaneers are 10-22 ATS on the road after a win since 2002.
  • Dolphins are 0-6 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano.
  • Dolphins are 0-4 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more under Tony Sparano.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 19, Dolphins 17
    Buccaneers +10 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Dolphins 25, Buccaneers 23



    Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
    Line: Vikings by 17. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Vikings -16.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Vikings -16.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com's new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

    1. "the niners are a lossing team intill they can show otherwise"

    And you are an idiot "intill" you show otherwise

    2. "can u say pick lol lol haha lolol"

    Nothing in this world is that funny.

    3. "K Warber is putting up some numbers today!wow"

    Who is K Warber? Sounds like a made-up name in Madden franchise mode.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings will have trouble scoring here - if they show up high on LSD, that is.

    I really don't know what to say that isn't completely obvious. Minnesota's offensive line will blast open huge holes for Adrian Peterson. Brett Favre will have excellent protection in the pocket when he needs to throw. And Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe and Percy Harvin will be open downfield because Detroit's secondary can't cover anyone.

    The Vikings should be able to put on a clinic.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The only question here is whether or not Detroit's offense will struggle more than its defense.

    The Vikings easily have the best defense in the NFC. The Williams Wall won't allow anything on the ground to Kevin Smith. With that in mind, Matthew Stafford will be forced into long-yardage situations. That's not good news for his health because Jared Allen will completely abuse the horrifically inept Jeff Backus. Stafford will either take tons of sacks or toss 5-6 picks. Perhaps both will occur.

    RECAP: This should be a beatdown for the ages. The key word here is "should."

    The problem is that this spread is way too large, especially for a divisional game. If the Vikings have a careless turnover or two, they'll have extreme difficulty covering 17 points.

    And just looking at the history of this rivalry, only one contest in the past 11 years has been decided by 17 points or more. In fact, these 7-1 Vikings have just one victory greater than 14 points all season.

    SURVIVOR PICK: I hate picking divisional matchups, but this is clearly the top choice this week if you haven't already taken the Vikings. If you have, I'd consider the following (in order): Saints (at Rams), Cardinals (vs. Seahawks) and Titans (vs. Bills).


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Coming off a bye, the Vikings should be focused. All they have next week is Seattle.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    What is going on here? People are actually taking the points with the Lions?
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 65% (127,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Vikings have won 19 of the last 20 meetings.
  • Div Dog: Jim Schwartz is 0-3 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.
  • Lions are 11-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (0-5 in 2009).
  • Brad Childress is 3-0 ATS after a bye.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -15.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Dome.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Vikings 34, Lions 20
    Lions +17 (2 Units) -- Push; $0
    Over 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Survivor Pick (9-0)
    Vikings 27, Lions 10



    Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) at New York Jets (4-4)
    Line: Jets by 7. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Jets -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Jets -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

    1. "omg.. my team needs a defencevive cornadator"

    omg.. your computer needs a spell checker.

    2. "tapabay is tied greenbay."

    Al Michaels, Joe Buck and Mike Tirico have nothing on this guy.

    3. "Cincy already bet the Steeler , who cares what there fan think "

    Yeah, who cares what there fan think! There fan can probably spell too!

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Todd Haley is really stupid (scroll down to the Chiefs in the NFL Power Rankings for scientific proof). Haley gave his top running back only six carries when he knew that the Jaguars rank 27th versus the rush. Haley also said he was surprised by Jacksonville's base 4-3 defense. Whoa, a 4-3 defense? How do you stop that?

    Fortunately for the Jets, Rex Ryan isn't a complete moron. He'll be prepared for the Jaguars and their vaunted 4-3. New York will feed Thomas Jones the ball early and often, setting up play-action opportunities for Mark Sanchez.

    I found it highly amusing that the Jaguars managed three sacks against the Chiefs last week. What's funny about that is the fact that Jacksonville had just five sacks on the year going into that contest. It's amazing how inept some of these teams are.

    Sanchez has been sacked just 15 times all year and he has gone down only six times in his past four contests. He'll be protected well when he's not in third-and-short situations.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, the Jets struggle to stop the rush. They're 11th against it right now, but that ranking will fall with Kris Jenkins out for the year. Besides, after a hot start in this department, New York has given up at least 119 rushing yards in five of its past six games.

    Maurice Jones-Drew will have a big day and he'll set up favorable down-and-distance situations for David Garrard. Garrard has had a very Jekyll and Hyde year. He'll be more Jekyll here as long as Drew-Jones piles forward and picks up first downs.

    Don't expect Garrard to beat this New York defense by himself, however; I really don't trust his offensive line to protect him, and the Jets rank first versus the pass.

    RECAP: The Jets seem to be the better team, but I'm taking the points here for a few reasons.

    First, New York has the Patriots coming up next week. Will the team be completely focused as big favorites over this crap Jacksonville squad? I have my doubts.

    Second, the Jaguars play much better in the role of an underdog. They've covered all but one game this year as dogs of three or more. They suck as favorites, but they usually play up to their competition. They even gave the Colts a tough battle, losing 14-12.

    And finally, if you exclude a 38-0 victory over Oakland, the Jets haven't won or covered a game since Sept. 27. Given how much the team is favored by and how the public is betting this game, it just seems to me that the Jets are living off the reputation they established when they were 3-0. All but one of their opponents since that time currently has a losing record, yet they are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in that span.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    Big game for both teams, though the Jets have the Patriots next week. They could be more focused on that matchup because the Jaguars aren't considered to be any good.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Jaguars aren't exactly a public team. People are all over the Jets here.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 70% (134,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Jaguars are 15-10 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Jets -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Jaguars 20
    Jaguars +7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 40.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Jaguars 24, Jets 22





    Denver Broncos (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6)
    Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Broncos -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Broncos -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    I'm going to complain about ESPN. Yeah, I know, I never do that.

    The on-site Monday night crew is terrible and really lacks chemistry. I like what Matt Millen brings to the table, but Stuart Scott opts to use 10-year-old catch phrases instead of getting his facts correct. Steve Young, meanwhile, looks disoriented half the time.

    This past Monday night, Scott wasn't sure how many picks Kyle Orton tossed, so he said that Orton "threw three or four interceptions." However, he really screwed up the week before when he came up with this gem: "The last six times the Falcons played the Saints at the Super Bowl, the games were off the charts."

    What does this even mean? Can he define "off the charts?" Was the seventh time not "off the charts?" And how can the Falcons and Saints play in the Super Bowl if they're in the same conference? Stuart later referred to New Orleans corner Jabari Greer as "Jabari Green."

    Meanwhile, Millen and Young have absolutely no chemistry and it's obvious they dislike each other. Millen brought up a good point about the Saints not kneeling down at the end of the game in a sequence in which center Jonathan Goodwin suffered an injury. Young smirked, interrupted Millen and rudely remarked, "You can think about that tonight or this week, let's talk bigger picture here."

    I'm sorry Steve that we're not as smart as you. Obviously a center getting hurt is not big picture.

    Young went on to declare that the Saints would go 16-0. No mention of a Super Bowl - because that's not big-picture - just a bold prediction that New Orleans would go undefeated in the regular season. Millen tried to argue that it's difficult to go undefeated and that the team would encounter some obstacles, but Young didn't even entertain the possibility that the Saints could lose.

    The bottom line is that Scott and Young have to go. I don't want anymore confused analysts, and I don't want to hear "Hater in the house!" or "Here... we... go...!" or "As cool as the other side of the pillow!" or "Off the charts!" or any reference to some stupid frat that Scott always mentions. I'm sick of it.

    We need Emmitt back. Sure, Emmitt debacled the English language pretty well, but he didn't make me want to saw off both of my ears.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It's amazing how much this team sucks. I mentioned this multiple times this offseason: To win in the NFL, you need a quarterback, you need to protect your quarterback and you need to get to the other quarterback. The Redskins are currently lacking those first two ingredients.

    Jason Campbell is terrible and always finds a way to give the other team a cover. Whether it's a pick-six or a fumble returned for a touchdown, Campbell is the king of screwing people who bet on his team.

    Of course, it's not all his fault. His offensive line gives him absolutely no chance. The Broncos are going to put tons of pressure on Campbell, which will force him into more mistakes.

    Clinton Portis is likely out with a concussion, so Ladell Betts will make the start. Don't expect much though because the Broncos are seventh versus the rush. I know Rashard Mendenhall just gashed them, but that's because they were so worried about Ben Roethlisberger and all of his weapons. Oh, and the Steelers actually have a line that can open up some running lanes. Denver can focus in on Betts and force Campbell into beating them.

    DENVER OFFENSE: We all witnessed the beginning of the end for these Broncos. Josh McDaniels seems like a good coach, but his idiotic moves this offseason give the Broncos no chance to advance deep into the playoffs. Kyle Orton is simply too limited and can't make a play longer than 20 yards.

    However, that won't matter in this contest. Michael Turner just trampled the Redskins' mediocre run defense, so Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter should be able to do the same thing. Orton is the master of third-and-short situations, and he should have plenty of those to work with.

    Orton will simply toss short passes to the talented Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. If McDaniels finally realizes that getting the ball to Royal is a good move, Denver's offense will be more dangerous than ever. Who knows, maybe Orton can somehow manage to complete a 25-yard pass one of these days.

    RECAP: This is my least favorite game of the week. I like the Broncos because the Redskins are terrible. Washington's offensive line is epically bad and won't be able to protect Campbell. Denver is the much better team.

    However, I could see Washington covering. The Broncos just had an emotional loss to the Steelers, and after two consecutive defeats, they could be doubting themselves. They'll likely be flat in this contest. Plus, this spread is ultra shady and has enticed many gamblers to place bets on the host.

    Before this line came out, I was going back and forth between these teams. I thought the spread would be 7-9. However, this ridiculous line is just -4, which really made things easier for me.

    Either the oddsmakers screwed up (which they've done a lot of this year) or this game is fixed. I guess we'll find out Sunday afternoon. I'd advise you to stay away.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    This is a huge letdown game for the Broncos, who put a lot of stock into that Monday night battle with the Steelers. Denver has San Diego next week, so this contest doesn't even matter. Beating the Chargers is a priority.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    What is going on with this shady spread? It's five points too low.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 85% (171,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Monday Misery: Teams coming off 17+ point losses on Monday night are 15-28 ATS the following week since 1999.
  • Broncos are 8-24 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Broncos are 6-14 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Broncos were 0-8 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Redskins 10
    Broncos -3.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Under 37 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 27, Broncos 17



    Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Falcons -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Falcons -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: Falcons.
    NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

    Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 9 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, all the games are canceled in honor of Brett Favre's re-return to Lambeau Field as a Chicago Bear.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: DeAngelo Williams and his offensive line really deserve a ton of credit. It's amazing how well they're running the ball considering that the team is getting nothing out of Jake Delhomme and the passing attack.

    Williams should be primed for another monstrous performance. The Falcons are a pretty mediocre, ranking 16th versus the rush and giving up at least 100 yards on the ground in five of their past six games.

    As long as the Panthers don't fall behind, they should be fine. John Fox showed us last week that he's perfectly fine running the ball on a 3rd-and-9. He just doesn't trust Delhomme at this point, and I can't blame him.

    However, if Carolina incurs an early deficit, Delhomme will commit enough turnovers to make you think that 10 of his sons were kidnapped.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: So, the question remains if the Panthers will fall behind early on. I say yes.

    Carolina's run defense has improved recently, but the Panthers haven't exactly played a team with a strong ground attack in the past month. That won't be the case this Sunday. After a slow start, Michael Turner has gained 317 yards and three touchdowns in the past two contests.

    With Turner moving the chains, Matt Ryan should be able to rebound off three pedestrian performances. I know Carolina's secondary is awesome, but Ryan went 21-of-27 for 220 yards, three touchdowns and a pick the last time he went against them. Also, keep in mind that star linebacker Thomas Davis is out for the year. That's a huge loss for Carolina.

    RECAP: This is a rough spot for the Panthers. They had been playing so well and even established a 17-3 lead at New Orleans. However, despite their best efforts, the Saints came back and won by 10. Carolina will be flat here.

    The Falcons, meanwhile, are a bit underrated right now; their 5-3 record isn't pretty, but the three teams they've lost to are New England (6-2), Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (8-0). You can't really fault them for those defeats. However, we can use this to our advantage by taking the Falcons on a low point spread that should be around -3.


    The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
    The Panthers put a lot of energy into the Saints game. They were up 17-3, but lost the lead at the end. They could be flat here.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    No surprise that the public is all over the Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 88% (139,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • History: Falcons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Divisional Revenge: John Fox is 6-2 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.
  • Panthers are 29-22 ATS as an underdog the previous 51 instances.
  • Panthers are 20-30 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Jake Delhomme is 24-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -1.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.
  • For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
    Falcons -1.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Panthers 28, Falcons 19



    Week 10 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Chiefs at Raiders, Seahawks at Cardinals, Cowboys at Packers, Eagles at Chargers, Patriots at Colts, Ravens at Browns


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks - Late Games



    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 2


    NFL Picks - Sept. 2


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - July 23


    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


    NFL Free Agents




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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