Los Angeles Rams (5-0) at Denver Broncos (2-3) Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.5. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Rams -3.5.
Sunday, Oct 14, 4:05 PM
The Game. Edge: Rams.
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Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we're down to just 35 souls remaining..
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams' offense looked unstoppable through four games entering last week, but the team struggled on this side of the ball at times. That may sound weird, considering that they posted 33 points, but they were just 3-of-9 on third downs. What happened was that both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp suffered concussions in the second quarter, so neither was available following intermission.
With Cooks and Kupp down, the Rams had to rely on Josh Reynolds and KhaDarel Hodge to complement Robert Woods. Neither was very effective against the struggling Seattle secondary, so I don't see them doing well versus a better defensive backfield. Fortunately for the Rams, the Broncos don't exactly have one. Chris Harris has been excellent as usual, but the rest of Denver's defensive backfield has been woeful this year, surrendering huge performances to Derek Carr, Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold. If Goff has at least one of Cooks or Kupp, he should have a monstrous game.
Of course, everything will continue to run through Todd Gurley. He has an extremely juicy matchup, as Denver's defense just surrendered 300 rushing yards to the Jets' mediocre backs. If the duo of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell could eclipse the 300-yard barrier, imagine what the elite Gurley will be able to accomplish.
DENVER OFFENSE: It'll be tough for the Broncos' overrated defense to stop the Rams, so it'll be up to their offense to keep pace with Los Angeles, just as the Seahawks did last week.
I wouldn't say this would be a possibility under normal circumstances, but the Rams have a banged-up secondary. Aqib Talib is out, while Marcus Peters clearly isn't himself. Peters played terribly at Seattle, and I wouldn't expect him to be 100 percent for at least another two or three weeks. The Broncos have the talented receivers to expose the Rams' corners. Meanwhile, Phillip Lindsay should be able to gash the Rams, who couldn't contain Seattle's rushing duo of Chris Carson and Mike Davis.
The one caveat here is that Case Keenum will have to avoid give-aways. Based on what has transpired this season, I'm very skeptical that he'll be able to do that. Keenum has been a turnover machine in most games this season, particularly in the red zone. He's been a disappointment, and while he could turn it around, it's more likely that he'll continue to hurt his team.
RECAP: I mentioned earlier that there were three spreads this week that were way off. I listed two already - Browns +1, Bengals -2.5 - so this may seem like the third, given that I made Denver +3.5 with the line being +7. However, the marginal difference between +3.5 and +7 isn't even 10 percent, so it's not as wide of a disparity as you'd think.
That said, I'm still going to be on the Broncos. If the Rams were at full strength, I'd probably have them demolishing Denver, but that's not the case. The Rams could be without their top two receivers, while their cornerback situation is a mess at the moment. The Broncos should be able to move the ball easily against the Rams, at least when Keenum isn't committing turnovers.
Keenum is the one hang-up for me. He's been so sloppy with careless turnovers this year that I can't trust him. I won't be betting the Broncos as a result, but they'll be a zero-unit selection for me.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can't believe the weather concerning this game. It's going to be 25 degrees with a chance of snow in Denver. Those are hardly ideal conditions for a team from Los Angeles! The good news for the Rams is that Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are already practicing, so both could be cleared.
SATURDAY NOTES: Both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp practiced fully Friday, so it sounds like they'll both play. I was considering putting a unit or two on the Broncos if both were out, but I don't want to bet against the Rams right now.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Broncos at +7, as this spread has dropped to +6.5. I'm not sure if they'll be on +6.5, but we may not see +7 again.
FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for not seeing +7 again. That's exactly what the line is right now. Both Ram receivers are healthy, which is not ideal for those betting the Broncos. I'm going to stay off this game.
The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
This seems like another "Super Bowl" effort from the Broncos after their low-energy game last week.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 55% (24,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
Broncos are 20-11 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3) Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 40. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.
Walt's Calculated Line: Jaguars -1.5.
Sunday, Oct 14, 4:25 PM
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 5, the Patriots get blown out again, and Emmitt decides to hire a new NFL press secretary.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Everyone seems to be criticizing Jason Garrett's decision to punt on fourth-and-1 in overtime. I thought it was a great move because it allowed me to salvage a push at Houston -3. Garrett clearly knew I needed that half point for the Supercontest, so he did me a favor. I appreciate it, Jason.
In all seriousness, it was a dumb choice, but it's also not a surprise that the myopic media is focusing on that one play. Let's instead look at the yardage disparity in that game. Houston outgained Dallas by nearly 200 yards and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. If the Texans scored more than just three points on two instances of having possession on Dallas' 1-inch line, the Texans-Cowboys matchup wouldn't have even gone into overtime. In fact, you could argue that Houston probably should've blown out Dallas.
That didn't happen, of course, because the Texans are very poorly coached. That's not the case with the Jaguars. They're a sound team that will be hungry coming off a loss. Their defense won't have to worry very much against the pass - the struggling Dak Prescott with poor receivers versus Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye? - so they'll be able to focus on putting the clamps on Ezekiel Elliott. The Texans did this on the ground with Elliott, but the stud running back was able to expose Houston's linebackers with some nice receptions. The Jaguars have a great linebacking corps that won't allow Elliott to do much. Meanwhile, the front will be able to expose the liabilities the Cowboys have at left guard, center and right tackle. It won't be pretty.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of poor offensive line play, the Jaguars could experience that against Dallas' tremendous front. The Cowboys have a great defensive line that tends to put lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Jacksonville doesn't have the best blocking unit, given that the team is on its backup left tackle and all.
However, the Jaguars have a big advantage on this side of the ball, and that would be Sean Lee's absence. Lee is a terrific linebacker, and Dallas' defense has always been poor whenever he's been missing. The Cowboys spent a first-round pick on Leighton Vander Esch as a replacement for such situations, but while Vander Esch has played well, there are still communication breakdowns in the back seven with Lee out of the lineup; over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have surrendered a completion percentage of 77. Lee's such a smart player that this is bound to happen.
Given that the Jaguars run weird crossing routes to get the ball out of Bortles' hands quickly, they should be able to move the chains, much like they did versus New England in Week 2. It's worth noting that because Bortles spreads the ball around so much, elite cornerback Byron Jones won't be as much of a factor. Bortles can instead look to beat Dallas' other cornerbacks, none of whom are playing well.
RECAP: The public is betting the Jaguars heavily. Sometimes, however, the public side is the right side, and I believe that to be the case in this instance.
The Jaguars are a proud team that will be especially focused coming off an embarrassing loss, and the Cowboys don't have the tools to beat them. Jacksonville's defense will prevent Dallas from scoring very much, while Bortles will be able to do just enough to beat the Sean Lee-less Cowboys.
If you're worried about Bortles, I don't blame you. However, consider that the Jaguars at -3.5 were able to cover at the Giants back in Week 1. The Cowboys would normally be slightly better than the Giants, but that's not the case if Lee is out of the lineup. There's money to be made by fading Dallas without Lee, and I'll be doing that for three units in this game.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh, the sharps bet this line up from -1.5 to -3, and yet they're still betting Jacksonville at -3. The juice on this game is now -120, so hopefully that comes down. I won't like the Jaguars nearly as much at -3.5.
SATURDAY NOTES: Sean Lee is out, but the Jaguars have some injury concerns as well. Their second-string left tackle Josh Wells is out, so they have to start a third-string left tackle against Dallas' front. Also, Jalen Ramsey is 50-50 to play, according to Doug Marrone. I still like the Jaguars, but these injuries are concerning enough for me to drop this to two units.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Jalen Ramsey will play, but the Jaguars playing their third-string left tackle is problematic. I still like them, but not nearly as much as earlier.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Jalen Ramsey will be on the field for the Jaguars. They'll have their top defender, while Dallas won't. As I said earlier though, the third-string left tackle will be a problem. The best line is Jaguars -3 -120, available at many books. I'm keeping this at two units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.
Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (22,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
Jaguars are 38-69 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Jaguars are 12-32 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
The underdog is 77-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-2) Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 43. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.
Walt's Calculated Line: Titans -2.5.
Sunday, Oct 14, 4:25 PM
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is about the Mandarin Oriental Pool, including one of the most annoying women I've ever met, plus a very creepy dude.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: This spread opened at Ravens -1, yet shot up to -3 rather quickly. This was sharp action on Baltimore, and I have to imagine that it's because of Taylor Lewan's injury. Lewan played just 17 snaps against the Bills, as his absence was one of the primary reasons Tennessee lost that game. There were some sloppy turnovers and a dropped touchdown late in regulation, but Lewan being out had a huge impact on that contest.
Backup tackle Tyler Marz couldn't block Jerry Hughes last week, so I can't even imagine how much he'll struggle against Terrell Suggs. If Lewan is out - he's getting tests done on his foot as of this writing - it'll be hard for the Titans to move the chains in this game, as Marcus Mariota will once again be constantly under siege. It would be nice if he had a safety valve like Delanie Walker to bail him out, but Walker is also injured. Mariota's top weapons are his receivers, particularly Corey Davis, but Baltimore's terrific cornerback group will make sure that Tennessee's wideouts don't do much.
Meanwhile, it'll be very difficult to run the ball on the Ravens. The Titans already had issues establishing the rush, and it'll be even more of a chore in this contest, as Baltimore has been excellent against ground attacks with C.J. Mosley on the field this season.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens improved their receiving corps this past offseason, but the wideouts didn't do much against the Browns' revamped secondary. The pressure Joe Flacco saw also factored into the low output. I imagine Baltimore will have similar issues in this contest.
The Titans have some terrific pass rushers, while their secondary is packed with talent. Flacco was limited to nine points last week, and given that this is a similar matchup, Baltimore could struggle to get to double digits again.
However, the Ravens definitely have an edge on this side of the ball, and that would be the middle of the field. Tennessee's best linebacker, Wesley Woodyard, was announced as having to miss "some time" prior to Week 5, so there's a chance he could be out again. Even if he returns, he may not be 100 percent. If that's the case, it'll be huge for the Ravens, as they'll be able to attack that area. Buck Allen has been an effective receiver out of the backfield, so I expect Flacco to throw his way often. Flacco also will attempt to get first-round rookie tight end Hayden Hurst involved as well.
RECAP: This is the third game that has a lopsided spread. I made the Titans -2.5, so I was shocked to see that the Ravens were favored by three. This is a marginal difference of 11.14 percent.
However, unlike the other two instances, I will not bet on the "wrong" number. Not unless I know Lewan is going to play. The sharps were right to bet on Baltimore with Lewan potentially out of the lineup. Lewan is just one player, but he's so instrumental for the Titans to win this game. Not being able to block Suggs is going to be a big problem, and if Tennessee helps Marz with double teams, some of the other talented Baltimore front-seven members will put heavy pressure on Mariota.
Unfortunately, the sharps betting up the Ravens to -3 has drained all line value from this game. I'd like Baltimore at -1 if Lewan is out, but I think the Ravens winning by three is the most likely result of this contest, so I won't be wagering on -3.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is on the home dog, while the sharps are betting the road favorite. What in the world is going on here!? I'm eager to see Friday's injury report before I consider wagering on Baltimore.
SATURDAY NOTES: If the sharps bet on the Ravens because Taylor Lewan would be out, they must have been saddened by the final injury report. Lewan isn't even questionable, as he's practiced fully the past two weeks. There's a chance Wesley Woodyard will play as well. I still like the Ravens to go into Tennessee and take care of business of a loss, but I won't be betting this game.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The actives/inactives will be interesting, as I'm curious if Wesley Woodyard will play. I'm likely not betting this game, but if Woodyard is out, I'll consider the Ravens for a unit.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Wesley Woodyard is out, but after thinking about it, I don't want to bet this game.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Sharp money is on the Ravens. Public money is on the dog.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 61% (15,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
Ravens are 14-24 ATS as road favorites since 2005.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at New England Patriots (3-2) Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 58. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3 -120.
Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -3.5.
Sunday, Oct 14, 8:20 PM
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
I'm going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don't know who Ross is, he's a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:
He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.
Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:
I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn't listen, so I unfriended him.
Because I was a big part of Ross' life, he sent me countless messages. I've shown you some already. Check this one out:
The sad thing is, Ross probably thinks I'm scared. He's so clueless that he doesn't even comprehend what an insufferable douche he is.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Everyone seems to be asking how the Patriots will be able to stop the Chiefs, but what about the other side of the ball? How in the world is Kansas City going to contain Tom Brady at all? If you listen to the talking drones on TV, you could mimic their answer and say, "Kansas City's defense played well last week." That, however, is misleading. Kansas City's defense didn't play well last week. Kansas City's defense played Blake Bortles last week.
The Chiefs have a great edge rush, but that's about it. They have numerous holes on their defense for Brady to exploit. The most obvious one that people know about is at cornerback, and I don't see how Kansas City will defend Josh Gordon. The Patriots have had extra time to get Gordon integrated into their offense, so he could have more of an impact this week.
However, the biggest problem the Chiefs have is at linebacker. They can't defend the middle of the field whatsoever, and that's frequently what Brady loves to attack most. Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and James White will all be utilized in this manner. Gronkowski isn't having a great season, but with extra rest following the Thursday night affair, he could be healthier for this contest.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes has been amazing thus far, and he's easily the MVP candidate through five games. It's almost difficult to imagine him playing poorly. Not only does he have a great arm, but he's also mobile and smart. And to top it off, he has a great mentor in Andy Reid. It's hard to believe Mahomes will be making just his seventh start in this game. He's playing like he's a 7-year pro!
Mahomes has a terrific matchup to exploit in this game, and that would be Travis Kelce against the New England linebackers. We just saw Eric Ebron tear apart the middle of the field versus the Patriots, and Kelce should have similar success. Kareem Hunt should also do well as a receiver out of the backfield.
That said, some things could go wrong for Mahomes. Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for him, so Mahomes will see some schemes he won't recognize. Also, the Patriots have a tremendous advantage on the blind side with their terrific edge rusher Trey Flowers going up against Eric Fisher. We saw Fisher struggle mightily at Denver, and he could have even worse problems in Foxboro.
RECAP: The Chiefs are a predictable public dog in this matchup. Everyone believes that they are the best team in the NFL, based on a small sample size of games. The Jaguars victory certainly put them over the top, as if defeating Blake Bortles at home is this great feat.
I don't want to make it sound like I'm hating on the Chiefs. I bet $100 on them to win the Super Bowl at 35:1 odds, for crying out loud. However, I don't like their chances in this matchup. Their defense stinks without Eric Berry, and Brady, who is hitting his stride now that we're in October, will expose it.
Belichick having extra time to prepare for Mahomes is also huge. Elite coaches have great records with extra time to get ready for a game, and that's the case with Belichick, who is 17-10 against the spread in such situations.
Mahomes could have some trouble against Belichick's schemes. He was having issues in Denver as well, but managed to overcome them with a brilliant fourth quarter, leading his team back from a 23-13 deficit with two touchdown drives. However, part of the reason why Mahomes was able to beat the Broncos in the fourth quarter was Case Keenum's inability to score more than 23 points against a bad defense. Keenum even missed a wide-open Demaryius Thomas at the very end for what should've been the game-winning touchdown for Denver. Brady won't miss that throw, and he will certainly score more than 23 points on Kansas City's putrid defense.
In case you couldn't tell, I love the Patriots. They're in a great spot, and they - not the Chiefs - have something to prove, as many analysts will be picking undefeated Kansas City to win outright.
I hate that we have to lay the hook, but it's -3.5 despite public money on Kansas City for a reason. I'm betting five units on New England.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to -3 -120 at 5Dimes, despite the fact that Justin Houston could miss this game. I'm tempted to bet -3 -120 right now, but I'm going to wait for -3 -115. If I see a -3 -115, I'll lock this in, so I'll keep you posted.
SATURDAY NOTES/PICK LOCKED IN: Justin Houston is listed as doubtful, which is huge. I'm now even more confident in the Patriots. I wanted to lock them in, but the line has moved to -3.5 or -3 -135 in most books. Fortunately, Bookmaker still has -3.5 -125. Bookmaker has a ton of options for spreads, so I'd recommend them.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Patriots are now -3.5 in most places, and actually -4 at Pinnacle, which is the sharpest sportsbook. Pinnacle wants more money on Kansas City, which is a great sign for us New England backers.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is split on this game, leaning toward the Chiefs, while the sharps are on the Patriots (at least at -3 -125). I still love New England as well. Hopefully we get better luck here than we did in the earlier top wagers, as Baker Mayfield's injury and Cincinnati's constant dropped passes ruined those picks.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
The Chiefs are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 51% (74,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Tom Brady is 225-70 as a starter (167-115 ATS).
Tom Brady is 18-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football.
Bill Belichick is 17-10 ATS with extra time to prepare.
San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-2-1) Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 46. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -8.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Packers -13.
Monday, Oct 15, 8:15 PM
The Game. Edge: Packers.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have two people I don't know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, where the San Francisco Giants will take on the Green Bay Packers. Guys, I'm really excited for this new game because I have breaking news about Jimmy Garoppolo. It's going to destroy him big time, and he's going to have a terrible game so my friend Melvis loses in fantasy against me, hahahaha!
Emmitt: Hahahaha, I beginnin' to thinks you do not understood what going on with the games of football. San Francisco Giant not the name of the football team, it the New York Giant. Jimmy Gor... uhh...Dor... uhh... Demogorgon not even playing this game. And we not even in the state of San Francisco. We in the country of Black Bay.
Reilly: Emmitt, you need to simmer down, or I will begin to try to kill you like I do with Herm Edwards or formerly Charles Davis. I don't care if Jimmy Garoppolo isn't playing because I'm going to bring him down so he never helps Melvis ever again. I have news to report, and that's that Jimmy Garoppolo has had sex with a porn star!
Tollefson: Kevin, you're such a dweeb. First of all everyone knows about Handsome Jimmy banging a porn star. I even snuck into their room and recorded it. Second, what's wrong with banging porn stars? I do it all the time, after I drug them and kidnap them, of course. They call me Handsome Tolly because I drug, kidnap and bang all the porn stars.
Reilly: What!? This is bulls**t! I was supposed to bring down Garoppolo, and now I can't!? Mother said that porn was evil, and porn stars are the gateway to Hell, but now people are free to bang them? This sucks, Mother won't even let me talk to girls!
Wolfley: KEVIN, I FEEL YOUR PAIN. MY MOTHER WON'T LET ME TALK TO FIRE HYDRANTS THAT DON'T HAVE LIPS, AND NOT ONLY THAT; SHE DOESN'T ALLOW ME TO TALK TO TELEPHONE BOOTHS THAT DON'T HAVE LIPS. IF THEY HAVE LIPS, THEY ARE A-OK.
Reilly: That's an interesting thought. Hold on a second, we're getting a call. I didn't know we even took calls on this broadcast, but here we go. Hello caller, what do you think about this game and porn stars?
Guest Caller: Hi, this is Cyclone Davidson, the porn star that Handsome Jimmy banged. I just want to say that I videotaped Kevin Reilly in the bathroom, and his wee wee looks like Koopa Troopa from Super Mario Bros.
Reilly: WHAT!? I THOUGHT THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE NORMAL! MY DOCTOR SAID IT WAS NORMAL TO HAVE A WEE WEE LOOK LIKE A VIDEO GAME BAD GUY!!!
Herm: HAHA! LOL! LMAO! BUHAHAHA! SO FUNNY! SO HILARIOUS! SO HUMOROUS! SO LAUGHABLE! HA! LOLOLOL! LMAFO! LOLZ! HERM CAN'T STOP LAUGHING! HERM CAN'T STOP CACKLING! HERM CAN'T STOP CHUCKLING! HERM CAN'T STOP! CAN'T STOP! WON'T STOP! CANT! WON'T! DON'T! SHAN'T! CAN'T AND WON'T! WON'T AND CAN'T! SHAN'T AND WON'T! DON'T AND SHAN'T! DAN'T AND WINT! THOSE AREN'T WORDS! THOSE AREN'T... uhh... umm...
Fouts: And here's what the caller means by Kevin Reilly's wee wee looking like Koopa Troopa. First, let's break down wee wee. There are two Ws and four Es. That means, if you buy a vowel in Wheel of Fortune, you'll have to pay for four. Four is one more than three, one fewer than five. Three fewer than seven, and five more than minus-1. There are half as many Ws. Half is 50 percent. That might sound like a lot of percents, until you remember that a 50 on a school test, isn't even higher than an "F." An "F" is lower than a D, and it's lower than an "E," but there are no "Es" in school tests. Why is that? The answer is that they are racists against the letter "E," which has been the case for far too long. I tell you what, if they ever elect me as King of the United States of America, I will make sure that the letter "E" is finally represented in school tests.
Reilly: Dan, do you really think anyone cares about this? People are caring way more about my wee wee not looking like Koopa Troopa! New daddy, tell them! You saw my wee wee when you were wiping my butt the other day. Tell them, new daddy!
Reilly: New daddy is asleep on the job again! Someone help!
Tollefson: No one's here to help you, loser! By the way, that definitely wasn't me calling in pretending to be Cyclone Davidson even though I left the room exactly when that call occurred.
Charles Davis: Kevin, I'm here to help you, Kevin. Tolly, I've looked at Kevin's wee wee before, Tolly, and Kevin's wee wee, Tolly, doesn't look like Koopa Troppa, Tolly, right, Kevin? Let's talk about Mario enemies, Tolly. Let's start with goomba, Tolly. Kevin's wee wee doesn't look goomba, Tolly. How about piranha plant, Tolly? Doesn't look like Kevin's wee wee either, Tolly. Let's discuss Hammer Brother, Tolly. Not that one either, Tolly. What about Buzzy Beetle, Tolly? Nope, Tolly. How about Lakitu, Tolly? Wrong, Tolly. Let's discuss pepperoni pizza, Tolly. Not a Mario bad guy, but I love pepperoni pizza, Tolly.
Tollefson: Gosh, Charles Davis, you're such a buzz kill.
Reilly: He's not a buzz kill! He's a great friend even though I tried to kill him before! We'll be back after this!
Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, keep thinking I'm your friend Kevin, for my revenge will be complete by the end of the year, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I can't remember who said it, but one national TV analyst said something like, "Aaron Rodgers isn't on the injury report anymore, so he's healthy." Yeah, not really.
Anyone who watched the Packers-Lions game knows that's not true whatsoever. Rodgers made some terrific throws in the second half when trying to come back from a big deficit in garbage time, but Rodgers made numerous poor passes early. He's also not seeing everything. He had an open Davante Adams in the end zone on one occasion, but simply didn't notice him. Rodgers, at 100 percent, would have drilled Adams with his eyes closed, but he just couldn't do it in his current situation.
The thing is, Rodgers wasn't even battling a good defense. The Lions' stop unit is atrocious, and yet Rodgers struggled until Detroit went into a prevent in the second half. The 49ers are just as miserable on this side of the ball. The secondary is a mess outside of Richard Sherman, while Reuben Foster is not in playing shape, as he apparently did nothing but take naps during his suspension. If Rodgers were completely healthy, he'd be able to post at least 40 on the 49ers, but that's simply not the case.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Of course, the 49ers can sympathize with the Packers' injury woes. This will be their third full game without Jimmy Garoppolo. They were competitive against the Chargers two weeks ago, but this past Sunday was a disaster.
For those of you who missed the 28-18 Arizona-San Francisco thriller, C.J. Beathard did nothing but toss 5-yard checkdowns for most of the afternoon. This was effective early because Matt Breida made some great plays, but the 49ers couldn't move the ball at all once Breida left the game. Breida is expected to miss this contest, so San Francisco's offense will be extremely sluggish once again.
I really don't know how the 49ers are going to score many - or even any - points. Beathard is terrible, and he won't have good protection from his putrid interior offensive line against a stellar Packer front.
RECAP: This reminds me of the Week 4 game between the Packers and Bills. Green Bay struggled offensively because of Rodgers' knee, yet still were able to win, 22-0, because Buffalo's inept offense couldn't produce anything versus an improved Packer defense.
San Francisco's offense will have similar issues. Beathard can't do anything but throw 5-yard checkdowns, and without Breida, Beathard doesn't have any threatening targets beyond George Kittle at his disposal.
Even with Rodgers hindered by injury, the Packers are far better than the 49ers. I made them 13-point favorites, yet this line is just -9.5. So, with that in mind, the question is whether or not Green Bay will be focused as big favorites, and I believe the team definitely will be. Not only are the Packers coming off a loss, but they have a bye coming up. This will be a nice chance for them to rebound on national TV, so I'm expecting a big victory.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: I'm going to lock this in right now. Green Bay -9.5 isn't a great number, but it's much better than -10. The sharps haven't bet this game at all, so my gut feeling is that this line will move up to -10, and perhaps even reach -11 at some point.
SATURDAY NOTES: Bryan Bulaga is questionable heading into this game, which is worrying. However, it sounds like he's going to play, which is good news because I've locked this in already. The sharps haven't touched this game yet.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some -9s have appeared, but I don't feel bad for locking in -9.5 because nine is such an unlikely result.
The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
The Packers are a good team heading into a bye, so they'll be very focused for this game.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The public loves the Packers over C.J. Beathard, stop the presses.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (10,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Packers are 38-26 ATS at home since 2010.
Aaron Rodgers is 83-54 ATS since 2009.
Aaron Rodgers is 24-11 ATS after a loss (10-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
Week 6 NFL Picks - Early Games
Philadelphia at NY Giants,
Tampa Bay at Atlanta,
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati,
LA Chargers at Cleveland,
Seattle at Oakland,
Chicago at Miami,
Arizona at Minnesota,
Indianapolis at NY Jets,
Carolina at Washington,
Buffalo at Houston
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Even though I have a three-unit bet on Jets -2.5, I think the Colts are a nice side for a teaser, as Andrew Luck should be able to keep the game within three to seven points. The Rams, meanwhile, just need to win, so they should be able to do that with their receiving corps entirely intact.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 5-0-1 (+$1,200)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 2-1 (+$325)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 5, 2018): 8-7 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 5, 2018): +$100
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$320)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 53-42-4, 55.8% (+$1,480) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-16-2, 57.9% (+$1,470) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 8-8, 50.0% (-$745) 2018 Season Over-Under: 41-37, 52.6% (-$225) 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$500
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$1,055) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$3,790)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,627-2,425-155, 52.0% (+$6,615) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 839-759-43 (52.5%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 359-322-19 (52.7%) Career Over-Under: 2,121-2,068-56 (50.6%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 41-25 (62.1%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.